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Thread: Ukraine

  1. #4411
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    And from Putin in the last day or two (source is CNN):

    Russia has “lost nothing” in its “special military operation” in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin claimed in his speech to open the Plenary Session at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Wednesday.

    “We have lost nothing and are not going to lose anything. Our main gain is the strengthening of our sovereignty. We didn't start anything, in terms of military action, but are only trying to finish it,” Putin told the audience.

    I guess around 1/5 of the RF army is 'nothing' to Putin.

  2. #4412
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    My fog doesn’t permit me to make predictions about shorter term goals but there’s cause for optimism. Yea! Assuming the situation reasonably resembles the news I follow tactical developments are so much rosier than just a few months ago. This grinding war is delivering an image of post Soviet Russia as a corrupted hulk whose tactical playbook is a development of WWII deployment theory but without the teeth or drive that true love of country evoked in the GPW.

    Meanwhile the Ukrainians remember pre GPW Russia and the then boss Stalin and presumably his stooges and those who followed with a hatred that can only come from enforced famine and mass murder. And here it is again coming from the east from an autocrat born of Soviet roots. Russia can only take or cede land. They cannot rule Ukrainians ever again.

    I hope Ukrainians have the capabilities to fully exploit this situation. Cautious optimism here.
    One of the most enduring qualities of an old wooden boat is the smell it imparts to your clothing.

  3. #4413
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett View Post
    Meanwhile the Russians have 15-20,000 troops and an awful lot of hardware cut off in the Kherson salient on the wrong side of a river the size of the Mississippi, with no bridges…
    Airdrops?

    We need someone to slam the back door like the French at Yorktown.
    If Russia wins, there will be no Ukraine; if Ukraine wins, there will be a new Russia.

    -- Dmytro Kuleba, Foreign Minister of Ukraine

  4. #4414
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Garth Jones View Post
    And from Putin in the last day or two (source is CNN): "Our main gain is the strengthening of our sovereignty. We didn't start anything, in terms of military action, but are only trying to finish it,” Putin told the audience.
    What sovereignty?

    Who did "start it"?
    If Russia wins, there will be no Ukraine; if Ukraine wins, there will be a new Russia.

    -- Dmytro Kuleba, Foreign Minister of Ukraine

  5. #4415
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett View Post
    BBC now reporting that a Ukrainian push from the Kharkiv area has brought their artillery to a position where they can command the road to Izium.

    May I take my civilian’s hat off to the Ukrainian General Staff, who seem to have a very sound knowledge of Sun Tzu, Clausewitz and Liddell Hart? This all looks like a double dose of indirect approach.

    If Russia loses Izium, Russian ability to supply their forces in the Donbas region becomes very doubtful.

    Meanwhile the Russians have 15-20,000 troops and an awful lot of hardware cut off in the Kherson salient on the wrong side of a river the size of the Mississippi, with no bridges…
    I look forward to more Ukrainian success. Updated training and arms appear to be working out very well in the field.

    Hopefully, for everyone, Putin declares victory soon and goes home.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  6. #4416
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Osborne Russell View Post
    What sovereignty?

    Who did "start it"?
    Well, none and he did. So Putin is either living in a delusional world in his own mind or he thinks he can get away with saying things that are blatantly false. Assuming he's not nuts, it looks to me like he needs to stay all in on some version of the narrative that the Ukrainian 'nazis' somehow started it and/or they are just helping their brothers in the breakaway 'republics'. Anything to keep the average Russian from realizing that he tried a blatant land grab and bleeped it totally up.

  7. #4417
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Ukraine claim to have killed almost fifty one thousand Russian troops- an insignificant number in terms of historical Russian losses. Ukraine also now claim air superiority over large areas- when do they get their hands on the promised A10 Warthogs? The sanctions in Russia are also really starting to bite, despite claims to the contrary by Putin supporters. Ukraine's got this as long as the rest of us don't leave them hanging. JayInOz

  8. #4418
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Almost American losses in Vietnam.
    without freedom of speech, we wouldn't know who the idiots are.

  9. #4419
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    People have been predicting Russia will fall in on itself for months.
    Looks like the economy will probably suffer most because of brain drain - but thats a 2 to 3 year thing. Bloomberg is saying worst case is the russian economy bottoms out at 11.9% lower than 2021 by 2024. At the moment oil revenues have the Russian economy suffering less than Europe. Deutsche Welle thinks the Russian economy may have shrunk by only 0.4% so far this year. Reuters is saying the economy may even have grown by end 2024 (small contraction this year, tiny one next and up by 3% the following).
    Missiles being collected have new chips in them - they're getting them from somewhere. Experts are trying to trace the manufacturers to find out how.
    The EU has spent more on Russian gas in this year than the Russians have on the war.
    The yanks can't hand over A-10's - its written in law. Either way they'll have to train pilots first which they haven't started, only said they are open to it.
    The big offensive in the south got back three villages by yesterday (WWI?). I detect a bit of irrational optimism from Denya Davydov. He's putting it all on broken Russian supply chains to the Kherson region across the river. The Russians have big helicopters.

    The Russian army seems to have a serious morale issue being picked up on radio intercepts, but I'm only getting that from sources i think are not entirely reliable. I don't overly doubt it, but i've never met a bunch of people yet who didn't whinge when the going got tough.
    All other indications are the Russians are happy to chip away at Ukraine indefintely.
    Rural Russia is 'Patriotic War' insane. Like MAGA insane on steroids. They really believe Ukraine is over run by Nazis. They'll happily feed their sons to machine guns to 'free' Ukraine. At least for the next while - a year? two years? Will they object to tactical nukes?

    I agree, Ukraine can win if the rest of the western world stays with them.
    Thing is - what does win look like? And how long?
    Hopefully Russia is a house of cards.
    It's all fun and games until Darth Vader comes.

  10. #4420
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by gypsie View Post
    People have been predicting Russia will fall in on itself for months.


    The Russian army seems to have a serious morale issue being picked up on radio intercepts,
    .

    Yes they have, and all the people who are claiming the sanctions are working probably have not even looked at the ruble exchange rate between the dollar, euro and pound, if they did, they would have to change their opinion on who the sanctions are really hurting.


    As for the morale issue, they are facing the same issue as the US in Syria, facing an opponent who is protecting their homeland and willing to die in the process, rather than someone who is ordered to protect some infrastructure in a foreign land that they should never be in.

    This conflict could drag on for a number of years.

  11. #4421
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    The exchange rate is favorable for the ruble but Russia is suffering 13.5% inflation and favorable exchange does nothing to make domestic inflation more palatable. Especially when desired goods become unavailable at any price. They can buy from the Chinese and from India. They can trade with African nations but overall, trade with Russia is a poison pill, even for China. Everybody else wants to dump their dependence on Russian energy and raw materials as soon as possible. Some, sooner than that.

    Exchange rates alone don’t tell the whole story. It is an area of strength, but perhaps brings mixed blessings. How does a strong Ruble help Russia add value in manufactured products for export sales? And the Ruble won’t replace the petrodollar. The Ruble is up but what else in the Russian economy is?
    Last edited by Lew Barrett; 09-08-2022 at 03:13 AM.
    One of the most enduring qualities of an old wooden boat is the smell it imparts to your clothing.

  12. #4422
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Lew Barrett View Post
    The exchange rate is favorable for the ruble but Russia is suffering 13.5% inflation and favorable exchange does nothing to make domestic inflation more palatable. Especially when the best goods become unavailable at any price. They can buy from the Chinese and from India. They can trade with African nations but overall, trade with Russia is a poison pill, even for China.

    Exchange rates alone don’t tell the whole story but It is an area of strength. Then again, how does a strong Ruble help Russia add value in manufactured products for sale overseas?

    UK inflation is projected to be 22% by end of the year, and 25% of income will be spent on energy.

    Being able to buy "luxury" goods is of no benefit when people will be struggling to pay to warm their houses and have hot water.

  13. #4423
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    This is not good.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62828238
    Paul Urey, aged 45, is reported to have died in detention in July after being captured by pro-Russian separatists.


    He was being held captive in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) breakaway region of Ukraine.


    The UK has previously described Mr Urey as an aid worker and said Russia must face responsibility for his death.


    Ukraine's foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said "Russians" had now returned his body with "signs of possible unspeakable torture," giving no further details.


    He went on to condemn the detention and torture of civilians as a war crime.
    without freedom of speech, we wouldn't know who the idiots are.

  14. #4424
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Vadim 68 View Post
    UK inflation is projected to be 22% by end of the year, and 25% of income will be spent on energy.

    Being able to buy "luxury" goods is of no benefit when people will be struggling to pay to warm their houses and have hot water.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  15. #4425
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Don't know where Vadim got the 22% figure from- current forecasts I have seen have been about half that.
    Mind you, bad enough, and with the new set of clowns and their magic money tree......

  16. #4426
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by birlinn View Post
    Don't know where Vadim got the 22% figure from- current forecasts I have seen have been about half that.
    Goldman Sachs.

    UK inflation ‘could hit 22% next year’ as recession looms (msn.com)

  17. #4427
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Vadim 68 View Post
    UK inflation is projected to be 22% by end of the year, and 25% of income will be spent on energy.

    Being able to buy "luxury" goods is of no benefit when people will be struggling to pay to warm their houses and have hot water.
    “Projected to be”.

    Annual UK inflation rate was 10.1% in July. While high, it is not out of line with other economies. We will need to see if the “careless-taker” government had lingering effect or if the new one manages to tame the issue.

    Counting chickens and all that.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
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  18. #4428
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    In the UK 50% of our electricty now comes from burning gas. 25% Nuclear. 25% renewables (and rising). We need gas for heating domestic homes but also national electricity production. That's why we're particularly affected. We swtiched to gas from coal to meet climate targets without the nuclear waste issue. We have old legacy housing that's less efficient too because we industrialised along time ago and havn;t been pushing insulation as hard as we needed too.


    We chose not to start building new nuclear a few decades a ago. Tony Blair spent the money on improving the NHS (he was told to start building new nuclear but ignored it) because it had got run down in the previous decade under Conservatives, because they had balanced the books from Labour in the 70's...how far back shall we take this.

    So to improve our climate emmisions, we stopped burning coal almost completely, and have domestic heating and national electricity production using alot of gas to move water through a turbine.

    Unlike the EU we've never trusted the Russians. We considered them a semi terrorist state for quite some time.

    We get our gas from Norway and Quatar on contracts but pay the going rate. We burned through our North Sea gas, then it 'just ran out'.


    The Germans have tried to fill there reserve storage with Russian gas, and were waiting to get levels up before hammering Russia more with sanctions. They've been buying gas at any price this summer and thats pushed the price up.

    In the UK we pay the going rate and that's put our price up. As we import alot of stuff, inflation's particularly high. On the good side, unemployement is particularly low.


    Russia's seen what Germany was doing and cut off the supply. That it also cuts off their main source of income, and is the height of stupidity when you need money for a war. But that's Russian's for you. They're a slightly stupid people. Putin stays in power by telling them they're victims. Russian nationhood is all they've got. We have to accept they're brainwashed with propoganda. The Europeans thought that after WW2 economic ties would stop a conflict, as Russia wouldnt be stupid enough, but that's proven to be a false hope.


    So the EU is turning it's back on Russia for the rest of the century, it's not going to ask for Russian energy again. He's got nobody else to sell to in the same quantity or as easily. He's cut off his money supply. The Russian's really are f**ked even after Putins dead.


    While we turn to fossil fuels this winter, in the short term the only answer will be onshore wind which can be built in quickest. We'll then have to get nuclear power running on a big scale, but thats 10-20 years to build. France chose nuclear for it's climate stratergy and its less affected.

    So yeah we got inflation, but I still don't have any heating on so my home bills aren't rising particularly. My works bills are 3 times what they were though but affordable as I'm not industrial.

    Same with food, its more expensive but frankly I could do with eating less.

    So we hate the price increases, but we hate Russians more. Our short term politics has led to lack of investment, really when borrowing is so cheap its embarrassing that more infrastructure is not put in, but most nations have the same problem.

    On the good side the swap to lowest carbon power generation is going to be at double speed and good for climate targets eventually, it has to happen now, as the governements won't be able to afford the subsidy for more than a few years.

    I think they're probably start fracking to see what somes out the ground, there will be expansion of offshore wind, alot more onshore wind and solar and the nuclear sites will be super fast tracked.


    It's not gas price that high here it's electricity prices. It use to be the other way around.

    We've got stuff turned off obviously, but my home (2 bed bungalow) is currently £50 electric per month and £20 gas (hot water as no heating on at the moment). About half of that is standing charge and half is gas of electric.

    Work electric bill has gone up from £50/ month to £150 per month. Gas is negligable as we don't need to heat it.

    Costs have basically trebled, but with careful use, we might only need to be paying double.



    Beside the energy costs, we had a rise in costs with the covid shipping container issue which put some prices up and thats only half resolved, and we've had increases in employment costs (taxes to pay for better social care etc) that's also put costs up.

    Our Bank of England erroniously thinks its an overheating economy (excess demand) and has rasied interest rates but it isn't, it's just increased business fixed costs, so prices have gone up. The lack of EU migrants has improved pay as it's been a bunfight for emplyees in the last 2 years and most salaries have increases pretty quickly which has helped (at a cost of lower corporate profits). The instinct that EU migration was depressing wages was correct.

    We're paying more for gas, but we have it supplied on contract. I'd say Germany is in a more precarious position, as they're having to scramble for it, don't have the LNG up and running quite yet and have an industrial economy to supply. They may have a slightl;y dodgy moral compass, but I don't doubt the ability of the Germans to cope through the winter, build infrastructure needed and they won't forget this is a hurry either. They'll endure, they cope with stuff like this probably better than anyone.

    I'd also bet here that after a very dry hot summer, we'll likley get a wet windy winter. That means low pressures and wind, so our windmills should be working well and when it's so gas burning drops right down for electricity and people won't need the heating on. We've had all the doors and windows open the last few winters at work due to covid so it's really only needed in January I'd say.

    There's no anti Ukraine sentiment because of prices in the UK that i've seen or noticed. We just hate the Russians even more and want Ukraine to win. We've seen like back in WW2, you can rely on the Poles and Scandinavians to show back bone. The French are still surrender monkeys and the Germans don't know what to do, perhaps understandably, it was a hell of a war on the eastern front.

    Geopolitically the Ukraine war has effectively isolated, demilitarised and impoverished Russia's industrial base. It's Christmas come early for the West and Biden. Russia's been picked off and now it'll just be China to deal with this century. They're just as dependent on western consumerism of chinese goods as Russia was with hydrocarbon exports. Opposite from the start Ukraine will have NATO training, NATO weapons and a functional experienced army. They will be closer to being in NATO than at any other time.
    Last edited by Edward Pearson; 09-08-2022 at 08:15 AM.

  19. #4429
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Edward Pearson View Post
    The lack of EU migrants has improved pay as it's been a bunfight for emplyees in the last 2 years and most salaries have increases pretty quickly which has helped (at a cost of lower corporate profits). The instinct that EU migration was depressing wages was correct.
    Tell that to the farmers
    https://www.ft.com/content/16851891-...b-76fce2a297ac
    and the hospitality industry
    https://www.bighospitality.co.uk/Art...ntinue-to-grow

    I doubt that the rest of the economy, manufacturing, retail, transport and so on relied much on migrants. Immigrants perhaps, but they need continuity, not seasonal workers.
    P.S. Low paid seasonal migrants are still here: https://www.rferl.org/a/britain-cent.../31997221.html
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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  20. #4430
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Labour shortage in those sectors is increasing effciency.

    For example not investing in vegetable picking machinery and instead using manual labour is to some degree human exploitation. Even if those imported east europeans wanted to do it, it makes me uncomfortable becasue of the toil and strain. The owners of the farms need to invest and now have to.

    It's new technology we can then export.

    People don't want to work in hospitality now because of the covid risk both the disease and its the first to close in a spike. Insecure work when there's plenty of work around.

  21. #4431
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Edward Pearson View Post
    Labour shortage in those sectors is increasing effciency.

    For example not investing in vegetable picking machinery and instead using manual labour is to some degree human exploitation. Even if those imported east europeans wanted to do it, it makes me uncomfortable becasue of the toil and strain. The owners of the farms need to invest and now have to.

    It's new technology we can then export.

    People don't want to work in hospitality now because of the covid risk both the disease and its the first to close in a spike. Insecure work when there's plenty of work around.
    Did you actually read the links?
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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  22. #4432
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Not the Ft one, it's behind a paywall.

    You must be the only leftie with an FT subscription Nick.

  23. #4433
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Andrew posted a link some posts ago, that deals with the war economy.
    “What’s better than a sixty minute lecture on défense economics?
    “An eighty minute lecture on défense economics!”

    Perun on fine form:

    https://youtu.be/ce5TR-qWCk4

    Note - he deliberately does not discuss the current fighting.
    Some people have a life and 80 minutes is a long time.
    The gist is that although the Russian economy isn't collapsing, the West can keep up the support to Ukraine indefinitely. We can handle the immediate pain the energy shortage is causing and after a few years we've eliminated all dependency on Russian energy. Russia's main energy market is gone forever.
    Whether we will continue to support Ukraine or not is a political question. Given that the public support for aiding Ukraine is extremely high, any proposal to cut down aid would be political suicide for any politician in most western countries. Freezing through a winter won't change that.
    Most of the weapons come from the US, which is barely affected by the energy crisis, and is routed through Poland which is extremely solid in the support for Ukraine.
    A very solid majority of the Ukrainians believe in victory. If you believe that you'll win, you're not going to accept the Russian terms for a Ukrainian capitulation. The Ukrainians will keep on fighting as long as we provide them the means.
    /Erik

  24. #4434
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Stefan Korshak is back, at least on facebook:

    The big picture

    By all accounts, the Ukrainian army has kicked off an ambitious offensive involving multiple combat brigades, aimed at breaking deep into the Russian rear area, and capturing or destroying serious numbers – this is hundreds at least and thousands possibly – of Russian soldiers and combat vehicles, over the next several weeks.

    This is taking place in the Kharkiv sector, and clearly, an early conclusion we can make is that in part the Ukraine Armed Forces (UAF) attacks in the Kherson and south Donbass sectors of the previous two weeks, were in part designed to misdirect the Russian Federation (RF) high command from keeping strong force in Ukraine’s northeast.
    The article continues and is as always well written and interesting. Due to general incompetence regarding social media I'm unable to provide a link. You can find Stefan Korshak yourself on Facebook or hope that Andrew or someone else provides a link.
    /Erik

  25. #4435
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Here is a link to Stephan Korshak's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/stefan.korshak

  26. #4436
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Vadim 68 View Post
    UK inflation is projected to be 22% by end of the year, and 25% of income will be spent on energy.

    Being able to buy "luxury" goods is of no benefit when people will be struggling to pay to warm their houses and have hot water.
    Desired goods includes parts for machinery, advanced chip sets, automobile spares as well as vehicles, specialized drones and all manner of industrial necessities. Caviar, vodka and blinis they can still enjoy but radar seeking ordinance is not going to be on the menu. I wasn’t thinking just of Rolex and champagne although that stuff is out too.

    Losing a war or simply engaging in a long, costly one is rarely positive for aggressive combatants. Russia appears to have lost air superiority over the northern battlefield. The strength of the ruble will not help them regain it if nobody is willing to sell them parts.
    Last edited by Lew Barrett; 09-08-2022 at 01:51 PM.
    One of the most enduring qualities of an old wooden boat is the smell it imparts to your clothing.

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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Garth Jones View Post
    Here is a link to Stephan Korshak's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/stefan.korshak

    From today's post by Stefan

    There is so much material this time, that I have no choice but to steal a joke from one of this review’s readers, to start things off.
    Q: What go you call a Russian tank regiment that just got back from Ukraine?
    A: An infantry platoon!



    Or should this be on the bad joke thread?

    Nick

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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Vadim 68 View Post
    UK inflation is projected to be 22% by end of the year, and 25% of income will be spent on energy.

    Being able to buy "luxury" goods is of no benefit when people will be struggling to pay to warm their houses and have hot water.
    One of the most enduring qualities of an old wooden boat is the smell it imparts to your clothing.

  29. #4439
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Lew Barrett View Post
    Desired goods includes parts for machinery, advanced chip sets, automobile spares as well as vehicles, specialized drones and all manner of industrial necessities. Caviar, vodka and blinis they can still enjoy but radar seeking ordinance is not going to be on the menu.
    Keeping that off the menu may be harder done than said.

    Will

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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by willmarsh3 View Post
    Keeping that off the menu may be harder done than said.

    I don’t know, you may be right and they do already have the technology implemented. The longer term problem for them is that their devices rely on chips made in Taiwan. That seems like it could get quite complicated. China and the US along with such countries as Israel are striving for complete vertical integration of their militaries. Russia is likely going to have a lot more trouble accomplishing that.
    One of the most enduring qualities of an old wooden boat is the smell it imparts to your clothing.

  31. #4441
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    It seems that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are either doing quite well, or are doing something quite outstanding in modern military history. Alas the fog of disinformation means that we have to wait for things to settle, but if in fact their feint at the South had indeed persuaded Russia to move 20,000 of their best troops to the west bank of the Dnipro, for the UAF to then cut the bridges and then attack, not there, but from Kharkiv towards Izium, then UAF strategy is up there with Marlborough and Prince Eugene’s Blenheim campaign in 1704 and with Napoleon’s Austerlitz campaign in 1805. Brilliant.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett View Post
    ...... Brilliant.
    There is nothing "brilliant" about the carnage of war, unless you are of sick mind.

  33. #4443
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Vadim 68 View Post
    There is nothing "brilliant" about the carnage of war, unless you are of sick mind.
    Carnage is what brilliant strategy avoids. Gustavus Adolphus and Charles XII were good at it.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Vadim 68 View Post
    There is nothing "brilliant" about the carnage of war, unless you are of sick mind.
    There is if you are using brilliant tactics in defending your people, your country, and your identity from an aggressor.

  35. #4445
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    The map from Denys Davydov- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09x-9c_6GAg

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