Ukraine

[Canoez]

I agree. But if only 15% of Russia's nuclear weapons designed for near or middle range use are capable of exploding - on target or not - it will be catastrophic enough. Explode one, or even a handful, and it's essentially "suicide by cop."

Except that a lot of "cops" will die too.

Yup. It's MAD, innit?

[Canoez]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/06/energ...ice/index.html

London CNN —

Natural gas prices in Europe and the United States have tumbled to levels last seen before Russia sparked a global energy crisis by invading Ukraine.
Wholesale European gas prices, as measured by the benchmark Dutch futures contract, have dropped almost 48% since mid-December to trade at €71 ($74) per megawatt hour on Friday — roughly where they stood on February 15 last year, a little over a week before Moscow’s unprovoked assault on its neighbor. Prices are now nearly 80% below their all-time August high of €346 ($364) per megawatt hour.
In the United States, the cost of wholesale gas flowing through the Henry Hub pipeline — which serves as the country’s price benchmark — has dropped 50% to $3.68 per million British thermal units (Mbtu) since late November, back to around levels last seen in December 2021.

[TomF]

Yup. It's MAD, innit?

Quite a turn of phrase you coined there. Somebody oughta write it down...

[Johan R]

[QUOTE=Peerie Maa;6793161]

Your second post proves that your first post is misinformation.

Turkey blocking Swedens entry to join NATO after a Koran burning outside its embassy in Sweden is not "misinformation" Mr uninformed.

It would seem that you are so keen to obfuscate and mislead that you cannot be bothered to make consistent posts.

Speculative nonsense. My second post had nothing to do with the first, and a quote from many Americans to justify the war in Afghanistan.

[Osborne Russell]

In the early stages, appeal is made to bloodlust. Twas ever thus; yes, our endeavor is to move beyond, but -- move which way, according to what map, what plan? What moral principle? I demand that you should say.

Like the guy said in "The Last Kingdom": these are men, not angels.

[sandtown]

Unprovoked, you say ??

Here is a photo-meme with a cameo appearance of our local favorite, Fiona Hill !!

[sandtown]

I have concluded that are those who want to stop war at any cost, and those that want to prolong it, because of the cost.

Very well put . . .

Sorry about the personal attacks - they are unwarranted, not to mention juvenile.

[SKIP KILPATRICK]

Sorry for the thread drift

Bullspit! That is all you do on this thread.

[sandtown]

Sandtown.

I suggest you should start following theese pro- Russian though anti war and anti-Putin news sites:
Meduza: https://meduza.io/en
Novaja Gazeta: https://novayagazeta.eu/
Moscow Times: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/ .

Thanks for the thoughtful post and the suggestions. I wiil certainly check those sources.

[LeeG]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/06/energ...ice/index.html

Yes in the short term much lower than peaks but still historically high and vulnerable to more volatility. I don’t think folks on the retail end are feeling good.

[sandtown]

Bullspit! That is all you do on this thread.

Bull-pucky your own self . . .

Too many of y'all get so caught up in enforcing your version of political correctness here . .

that Ukr falls by the wayside.

[Johan R]

You decry personal attacks...then turn around and call people here juvenile.

People making personal attack comments ARE juvenile. It is an observation, not an attack.

Anyone who says that any support for Ukraine is a wish to prolong the war because of the cost...well...any response to them is not a 'personal attack.

No one here has said that. Lighten up.

[sandtown]

Another in a series of posts directly related to the topic . .

I have met Ms. Benjamin and been impressed by her. She has been fighting the good fight for a good while.

She is one of the founders of Code Pink . . .

https://www.commondreams.org/can-us-...-talks-ukraine

[skuthorp]

Look up Russian looting of Ukrainian culture, including religious relics.
Plenty of links here:
russian looting of ukrainian culture

Sound familiar to any one reading of Nazi looting during WW2?

[George Jung]

An ethical people would regard nazi looting as a tale of caution.

The ruscists took it as guidance.

[heimlaga]

Another in a series of posts directly related to the topic . .

I have met Ms. Benjamin and been impressed by her. She has been fighting the good fight for a good while.

She is one of the founders of Code Pink . . .

https://www.commondreams.org/can-us-...-talks-ukraine

I tried to read it through and to me it seems that she with her American point of wiew never understood the real size of the problem.
In fact I think few Americans are able to fathom what this is all about. Reality is totally outside the American framework.
Therefore many Americans tend to either take the standpoint that she takes or take part in the war rally against everything Russian.
Both those typical American responses are totally non-constructive if we want to find a way out of this war.
A bit like building higher leevees and dredging deeper shipping channels in the Missisippi delta. Solves the problem for the moment being but it just makes the next disaster even worse.

The main problem as I see it is the way Russia functions as a society. Russians are just as clever as other people. Sometimes they seem to be a wee bit more clever than other people. Provided that they get around to think and dare to think. During 800 years of oppression under one czar or another they have learned not to think and not to question. As a strategy of survival. A bit like children of religious sects. A bit like a person I know intimately who grew up in her disturbed mother's twisted world and had a hard time finding her way out of it.
Secondly generations of surveillance with people whistle blowing on one another in exchange for personal gains has weakened all horizontal ties of loyalty between ordinary people at the same level of society and replaced them with vertical loyalties where loyalty to the person above you is rewarded with safety or money or whatever.
There is also a third factor. Every lime the central government has been weak and oppression has slacked and at least some civic rights have been introduced then maffias and gangs and oligarchs have made good use of the new freedom so life has actually become harder for law abiding working people.
Russians are a mighty clever bunch and there are many who despite all this dare to think and to question. Those who know the country and it's people guess that somewhere between 40 and 70% of the population are at this very moment thinking and questioning what is really going on in their country. However the lack of trust and lack of community and unfair courts and oppressive laws makes it difficult for commoners to take steps to change it.

For the last 20 years oppression has been growing steadily and so has the consumption of young men as soldiers in wars of expansion. However this has also been a period of stability. People have grown used to it.
A bit like when you cook a frog slowly and it get's used to the heat until it dies instead of jumping out of the pot. A bit like the lower working class in America has grown used to a society where everybody talks about equal opportunities all while the real opportunities are extremely unequal and getting even more unequal for every year. Just like in the American lower working class aparthy and drug and alcohol use and violence are skyrocketing when life becomes hemmed in.

Those who rule Russia at the moment have only two aims. Money and power. To gain more power the empire must grow and to gain more money the flow of money upwards through the hierarchial society must be increased. To them the people are just tools. Tools that can be sent out bu the millions to be machinegunned on battlefields while expanding the empire or who can be kept working hard while their earnings are extricated and sent upwards. To them agreements and laws and honesty mean nothing because they know that power and wealth will always rule in their world.

For several hundred years the Russian army has always been terribly brutal against their own soldiers. As a method of breaking them so they don't care whether they are shot or not. Theese broken men with nothing but bullying to look forward to tend to let their anger and frustration get to the surface when encountering civilians in occupied areas.


That is a very rough and not in every detail accurate sketch of the partly decent and partly apathic Russian people and the hyper-egoists in charge. Though I have tried my best to point out the basic differences and similarities between their country and yours. To the best of my knowledge. Based on what I have learned from people who have lived in those countries.

Now this is what we have to deal with.
A cleptocracy which though it is a legitimate government will never respect an agreement nor a border nor a law. The whole reason why the Russcist leaders always ask for this Nato-free zone in eastern and central Europe is so that they can expand their power. Puppet dictators or just plain conquest. Or scaring the people in defenceless states so they start to vote for a Russian puppet.
Russia must grow to provide wealth which the leaders can share out to loyal followers. Wealth to share out is what holds the system together. Just like a viking king who needed to raid to get wealth to share with his hengemen. Just like the Duchy of Normandy under duke William the Bastard or like Sweden under king Gustaf II and his decendants for a full century. Or like Britain and France in the age of colonialism. Or USA when the west was conquered. Therefore Russia will grow until it either meets resistance or until it meets the sea in Galway. All while the population in Russia gets used to even harder extrication of wealth and to even more young men being sent to war never to return.

Appeacing Russia by leaving buffer states which they can conquer has nothing to do with the ideals of peace and democracy. Why are we who live in theese buffer states not counted as real people. Why do our votes not count? Who are you to decide that our democratically elected governments must scede power to the Putin whom we didn't elect? Who decides whose votes should count and whose shouldn't count?

If you decide that we must leave our homelands for the sake of superpower politics you should at least make room for us so we can live somewhere else. Can you provide land for 20 millions Finns and Swedes and Norwegians and Estonians in southern Alaska?

Any serious peace activist with some sort of knowledghe about the problem must work on a solution that involves the quiet mayority of good and true Russians and does not involve Putin and his gang.

[TomF]

An ethical people would regard nazi looting as a tale of caution.

The ruscists took it as guidance.

Building on prior examples, e.g. most prominently Napoleon. Who stocked the Louvre with art looted from the cultures he overtook, precisely as a way of displaying French Imperial dominance and supersession.

[skuthorp]

#9046
What he said…..

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

#9046: exactly this.

[Tom Hunter]

#9046 Agreed on all counts

One of the great failings of people in large countries like the USA, Russia and China is assuming that people in other countries have no autonomy.

[johnw]

When I was growing up, I captured a lot of frogs. They don't stay in any container, regardless of water temperature, because frogs love their freedom, and anyhow, jumping is what frogs do.

Point well taken on Russian society. Some trace it all the way back to the Mongol invasion, because the Mongols ruled by force and terror. However, I hope and believe that Russia will someday be ruled by and for its people. Hasn't happened yet, but a man can dream. Certainly I've liked the individual Russians I've met, for the most part.

[sandtown]

Reality is totally outside the American framework..

Well, on this we can at least agree . . . heh

I thank you for taking the time for your thoughtful post. I am aware that many people share your views.

The war is beyond awful, and many people are trying to figure a way out of it.

You seem to see no way out except a continuation of the war until Russia no longer exists; but if that happens a likely result could be a number of extremist ethnic national mini-regimes, many of them nuclear armed. That could well be worse than what we have now.

Thanks again for sharing your well informed views.

Actually, I thought that Ms. Benjamin had a number of good ideas . . .

[LeeG]

#9046 Heimlaga, much appreciated

[L.W. Baxter]

yes, heimlaga, a thoughtful, and thought-provoking post.

i read sandtown's latest "common dreams" op ed. this one was better written than some previous offerings. but, once again, egregiously america-centric. multiple assertions of obstruction and coup d'etat-ing by the u.s.a., and, once again, a mystifying absence of mention of meddling--let alone military action--in ukraine, by their large, meddlesome, and imperialistic neighbor.

what motivates this tunnel vision? why does it resonate so?

[sandtown]

, egregiously america-centric. multiple assertions of obstruction and coup d'etat-ing by the u.s.a., and, once again, a mystifying absence of mention of meddling--let alone military action--in ukraine, by their large, meddlesome, and imperialistic neighbor.

I'll see your gibberish and raise you an Andrew Bracevich.

Seriously, what you wrote there is nonsenscial and content free.

[sandtown]

Building on prior examples, e.g. most prominently Napoleon. Who stocked the Louvre with art looted.

Seriously, where were all you culture warriors when the US was using ancient Babylon as a tank staging area ???

And FAUX news agents were stealing ancient treasures ??

Vets for Peace objected - did y'all ??

I really doubt it.

[WX]

Well, on this we can at least agree . . . heh

I thank you for taking the time for your thoughtful post. I am aware that many people share your views.

The war is beyond awful, and many people are trying to figure a way out of it.

You seem to see no way out except a continuation of the war until Russia no longer exists; but if that happens a likely result could be a number of extremist ethnic national mini-regimes, many of them nuclear armed. That could well be worse than what we have now.

Thanks again for sharing your well informed views.

Actually, I thought that Ms. Benjamin had a number of good ideas . . .

Until Russia ceases being the aggressor. How you spin that should be educational.

[Nicholas Carey]

It would be interesting to look at the WBF server logs and see a summary the true IP address of posts, grouped by the poster.

I wonder if the Russcist (nice term!) troll farms are smart enough to have stood up proxies outside Russia and have VPNs piping the troll posts out through them to mask the actual location where the traffic hits the public Internet.

[skuthorp]

"You seem to see no way out except a continuation of the war until Russia no longer exists;"

I see no way that can happen, even if if devolves into a larger European war which it may well do. Acually defeating Russia's military may be possible but the country is bigger than the rest of Europe, and the devestation would effect western europe more than similar damage to Russia

[sandtown]

It would be interesting to look at the WBF server logs and see a summary the true IP address of posts, grouped by the poster..

Yeah, for sure, no actual human bean could be opposed to global war. Gotta be a Bot !!

Bots For Peace !!

[heimlaga]

[QUOTE=sandtown;6793501]
(....)

The war is beyond awful, and many people are trying to figure a way out of it.

You seem to see no way out except a continuation of the war until Russia no longer exists; but if that happens a likely result could be a number of extremist ethnic national mini-regimes, many of them nuclear armed. That could well be worse than what we have now.
(...) /QUOTE]

That is exactly how Putin&co want it to be. Or at least to pretend that it is. In order to hold down the masses and stay in power they need an outer enemy dead set on waging war until Russia no longer exists. Their propaganda consistantly proclaims this as the main aim of the west. This is probably the reason for anti-aircraft batteries popping up in very visible spots in Moscow. Creating a siege mentality and a fear that mother Russia will be taken away by the evil westerners.

I am not an expert in international problem solving. I am just an ordinary construction engineer who got unemployed 2008 and had to become carpenter and joiner instead. Thinking as best I can.
I rekon that a solution must all be aimed making all those clever Russians think and take action to reshape Russia into their own republic working on their behalf in close friendship and cooperation with us. Canada is not a client of USA and it is working by and for itself ruled by it's people and relations with USA and Europe are usually fairly good and the borders open. Russia can become another Canada (though with a stronger manufacturing industry and hence financially stronger).
That is my aim.
How do we get there?
I havent figured out every detail but I have a suggestion built upon several parts:
1. Helping Ukraine throw out the Russian army as quickly as possible. However all the gifts to Ukraine must have strings firmly attached.
String one: Ukraine is not under any cirkumstances allowed to conquer a single square centimeter of land or water outside the borders of 2013.
String two: Attacks carried out on Russian tereitory must always be as accurately as possible aimed at purely military targets.
String three: Once Ukraine is liberated three party councils must be held with the Ukrainan government and representatives from the west and representatives from Donbass and Krim to decide on the political future of theese areas. What level of authonomy and so on. Referendums must be held and authonomous bodies set up.
String four: Ukraine must fight it's own corruption and oligarchs and strenghten it's civic society. The process must start now and if it doesn't make progress all support for the government in Kiev can be cut. It is well known that the Ukrainan people would be over delighted with this and very happy to take part in it tired of corruption as they generally are. A control comission consisting of half westerners and half Ukrainan activists and anti corruption journalists should be set up as overseers. Ukrainans are a tough and hardworking bunch and they are used to working together for common goals. Ukrainans can do anything if they get a bit of help to get started.
2. Winning the hearts and minds of the Russian people.
This must consist of several parts:
-With the Russians having sent their young men as cannon fodder for the cleptocracy while getting no rewards in the form of scraps of conquered wealth handed down by their leaders then Putin&co will be in the same position as a Viking king forced to return home without plunder. Loyalties will break and authorities be questioned.
-Western rhetorics must make it very very clear that those strings are in existence. So that the knowledge about them seeps into Russia and ordinary people start questioning the tales of Ukrainan imperialism on Russian soil.
-We must all together with our government make it very clear and public so that every Russian gets to know that the enemy is only the cleptocrat Putin government and not the Russian people nor Russia in itself. That our aim is a strong and independent and democratic Russia.
-We must get into the same subversive game as the Russcists do with their employed propagandists pretending to be Vadim and Johan R and many others. However our propagandists must be instructed to build credibility by telling only truths so distrustful Russians become a bit less distrustful and then plainly and simply and honestly explain the principles of democracy and a state working for it's people. Explain both the good and the bad sides. The Russians are a clever bunch and will likely do the thinking and figure out the consequences if only fed with information.
-We must do all we can to support and cooperarate with Russian democracy activists. While letting them do the decisionmaking. They are Russians and hence more entitled to make decisions concerning Russia. While making it clear and obvious that the only strings attached is that support will be withdrawn from those who are trying to just replace one czar with another.
-We must be prepared to help the Russian people in various ways in case their society collapses or civil war breaks out when the czar comes falling down.
I rekon playing with open cards towards the common Russians is the key to changing Russia. When the common Russians learn about the benefits reduced corruption has brought the Ukrainans they will want it themselves too and Russia will change.


This will be a hugely expensive project for the Western world but I rekon the initial outlay will pay back in a 150 year perspective. With less defence costs and less bloodshed and good mutual cooperation with a country rich in industry and natural resources.

This is my dream. Be it unrealistic or not.

[Nicholas Carey]

Yeah, for sure, no actual human bean could be opposed to global war. Gotta be a Bot !!

WHOIS/DNS, and the CIDR block the IP address belongs can tell you, with some degree of certainty, the geographical area in which the point at which the traffic entered the public Internet is located. More likely to be accurate at the country level than anything more granular as each country is allocated certain CIDR blocks.

Always interesting to see from where your traffic originates. Especially when it's atypical traffic.

[dutchpp]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, January 26.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...anuary-26-2023

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on January 26.
• A recent altercation between Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and former Russian officer Igor Girkin is exposing a new domain for competition among Russian nationalist groups for political influence in Russia against the backdrop of Russian military failures in Ukraine.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin continued his campaign against critical and opposition voices by cracking down on several major opposition media outlets.
• The United States Treasury Department announced new sanctions targeting the Wagner Group’s global support network, likely in response to the Wagner Group’s renewed efforts to reinvigorate its operations outside of Ukraine.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces relaunched counteroffensive operations near Kreminna.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut, on the western outskirts of Donetsk City, and in the Vuhledar area.
• Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast are not conducting offensive operations at the size or scale necessary for a full-scale offensive.
• Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces continued to conduct limited and localized ground attacks in Zaporizhia Oblast.
• The Wagner Group likely experienced significant losses in attritional offensive operations in eastern Ukraine over the past few months.
• Russian occupation officials are reportedly continuing to “nationalize” property and close places of worship belonging to the Ukrainian Evangelical Baptist Christian communities in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast in an effort to establish the Kremlin-affiliated Moscow Patriarchate Orthodox Church as the dominant faith in the region.

[gypsie]

#9063 you're kicking goals today!

I think your vision of 150 years and more of earned peace and mutual benefit/ influence is a terrific, highly possible, model.
I think you're describing the road Germany thought it had been on (and me) with Russia. That the mutual dependence made war unthinkable. It's the core idea behind the EU - which works! Provided everyone is on board.

the optimistic string in the tapestry is that Russia can unlearn a generation of propaganda, and eventually trust the 'collective west'. This will take a major moment of introspection.

By contrast I think our comrades who profess peace appear to want 150 years of conflict in the region by giving in to Russia now, cede the lands they've taken as they insist as part of peace talks, and embolden them to regroup resupply and try again in Ukraine and elsewhere.

Im sure they'll disagree and say something like we can have your vision of a Europe in 150 years from now, have a free and independent Ukraine AND stop fighting the Russians immediately.

The thing they won't attempt to explain is how.

[Tom from Rubicon]

#9046 Agreed on all counts misspellings over looked. In your opening are you referencing the 1927 Mississippi flood?
Most people these days have no knowledge of that time and circumstance.
Rising Tide: The Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 and How It Changed America by John M. Barry | Goodreads