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Thread: Ukraine

  1. #7001
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    China is reported to have summoned Russia for a chat, standing, without coffee and biscuits, over threatening the use of nuclear weapons.

    Thank you, China.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  2. #7002
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett View Post
    China is reported to have summoned Russia for a chat, standing, without coffee and biscuits, over threatening the use of nuclear weapons.

    Thank you, China.
    Remarkable. Where did you see/hear this?

  3. #7003
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Ross View Post
    Remarkable. Where did you see/hear this?
    Here:

    https://www.politico.eu/article/chin...y-peace-talks/
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  4. #7004
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Ross View Post
    Separately, I hope that an open hand is offered to Russia to connect to the West with peaceful intentions. I hope that a turn towards democracy is possible in Russia, encouraged and supported by the West.
    The question is, do we want a WWI type of peace, or a WWII type of peace ??

    We know how the former turned out.

  5. #7005
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by ERGR View Post
    All of Ukraine must be returned to Ukraine.
    In the interests of justice, shouldn't Crimea be returned to Turkey ??

    They were there for 300 years.

    My point is that rectifying all the borders in Eur-Asia will not work - not close.

  6. #7006
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    The question is, do we want a WWI type of peace, or a WWII type of peace ??
    We know how the former turned out.
    WWI ended with a peace treaty, essentially setting the stage for WW2. WW2 ended with the unconditional surrender of the Nazis. No matter how much I would prefer the unconditional surrender of Russia, it isn't realistic. We (=the West) will have to try something new once Russia is evicted from Ukraine and cease hostilities. We can hope that it'll be wiser than after WW1.
    /Erik

  7. #7007
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett View Post
    China is reported to have summoned Russia for a chat, standing, without coffee and biscuits, over threatening the use of nuclear weapons.

    Thank you, China.
    Sun Tzu stated, that the best general is the one who achieves the goal without a battle (and not the one who wins the most battles).

  8. #7008
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Henning 4148 View Post
    Sun Tzu stated, that the best general is the one who achieves the goal without a battle (and not the one who wins the most battles).
    I used to assign both Sun Tzu and Von Clausewitz in my classes. Most of the students were surprised that KVC was more of a lover of war.

    Seeing war as merely politics by other means is a recipe for global disaster.

  9. #7009
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    The Alsace-Lorraine being gifted back and forth between Germany and France since the Roman Empire then being returned to France at the treaty of Versailles left Germany in a tizzy. Very much like Putin today trying to bring Ukraine back into the fold, Hitler wanted the Alsace-Lorraine "back" and marched right in there and took it. And then, we gave it back to France, which seems to be working still today...

  10. #7010
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by sandtown View Post
    In the interests of justice, shouldn't Crimea be returned to Turkey ??

    They were there for 300 years.

    My point is that rectifying all the borders in Eur-Asia will not work - not close.
    So why not ascertain the preference of the people who live there-ideally in a vote with oversight by a neutral agency to avoid the risk of a result like the Ukrainian "ballot" that saw them express a preference for remaining Russian?The names on the map reaching from Greece to the Black Sea have changed a bit over the last thirty years for this sort of thing.

  11. #7011
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by ERGR View Post
    No matter how much I would prefer the unconditional surrender of Russia, it isn't realistic.
    History, especially the newest chapters, teaches us that moscow regards all written deals a toilet paper.

    They don't need to surrender. They need to unconditionally withdraw. If they'l do that heralding victory over fascism, so be it.
    The only circumstances when peace will be somewhat stable is when they'll retreat like beaten dogs and lick their wounds for years.
    No, this isn't hate speech.

    What is necessary is another Afhganistan scenario, not another Minsk agreement.
    WszystekPoTrochu's signature available only for premium forum users.

  12. #7012
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by ERGR View Post
    WWI ended with a peace treaty, essentially setting the stage for WW2. WW2 ended with the unconditional surrender of the Nazis. No matter how much I would prefer the unconditional surrender of Russia, it isn't realistic. We (=the West) will have to try something new once Russia is evicted from Ukraine and cease hostilities. We can hope that it'll be wiser than after WW1.
    /Erik
    Exactly. A negotiated peace will be necessary, and complicated.

  13. #7013
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by sandtown View Post
    In the interests of justice, shouldn't Crimea be returned to Turkey ??

    They were there for 300 years.

    My point is that rectifying all the borders in Eur-Asia will not work - not close.
    Thank you; this leads me back to where I started, with the Kenyan Ambassador’s speech to the United Nations in February.

    The actual “realist” position (as opposed to Mearsheimer’s twaddle) is to accept the post-WW2 boundaries as drawn. Ukraine is Ukraine, end of story.

    The Crimean Tatars were (mostly) deported from Crimea by Stalin and replaced with Christian Russians, and a lot of the Tatars are still in Siberia.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  14. #7014
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by sandtown View Post
    In the interests of justice, shouldn't Crimea be returned to Turkey ??

    They were there for 300 years.

    My point is that rectifying all the borders in Eur-Asia will not work - not close.
    Give the US back to the Indians?
    It boils down to the Russians agreed to respect Ukrainian sovereignty, and didn't.
    without freedom of speech, we wouldn't know who the idiots are.

  15. #7015
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by ERGR View Post
    WWI ended with a peace treaty, essentially setting the stage for WW2. WW2 ended with the unconditional surrender of the Nazis. No matter how much I would prefer the unconditional surrender of Russia, it isn't realistic. We (=the West) will have to try something new once Russia is evicted from Ukraine and cease hostilities. We can hope that it'll be wiser than after WW1.
    /Erik
    I agree.

    I think importantly, WWII ended with the Nuremburg trials.
    The Germans HAD to look at their actions square in the face.

    Recent propaganda in Russia says Ukrainians were found guilty of shooting down MH17.
    Without a Nuremburg the Russians will make up their own story. WWI outcome is inevitable - which makes NATO in Ukraine inevitable. It won't be a Maginot line this time - it'll be a lot more prickly.

    I see frost.
    It's all fun and games until Darth Vader comes.

  16. #7016
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/19/russias-invasion-ukraine-race-nukes-00069593
    I
    think Defense Secretary Austin has a similar opinion, mayhap a little more openly pessimistic.

  17. #7017
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...tlefield-wins/

    Bleak outlook for an increasingly hard war from WAPO.


    Yuriy Ignat, a spokesman for the Ukrainian air force, said Ukraine does not trust that Russia would abide by any agreement to enter into negotiations and would use any pause in fighting to rebuild its stocks of ammunition and missiles, train its newly mobilized troops, and refit and replace damaged equipment. “Russia needs a truce until spring, and then they will strike with everything they have,” Ignat said. “Plus they will make new missiles, strike us with renewed vigor and destroy us completely. That is Russia’s foreign policy and their plan for peace.”

    [Russia had 90,000 troops on the front lines when the conscription drive began — and has since added as many as 100,000, according to an official from a European NATO country, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive security matters.

    As many as 200,000 more Russian forces are being trained and will arrive in the coming months, probably in at least slightly better shape than the underequipped and ill-prepared men who have arrived so far, the official said. This could help reconstitute Russian fighting power heading into the spring.

    “It’s a lot of men,” the NATO country official said. “We all know their quality is poor. They lack equipment. They lack training. Yet there is also a certain degree of quality in quantity — and speed” of getting them to the front.
    It's all fun and games until Darth Vader comes.

  18. #7018
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by gypsie View Post
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...tlefield-wins/

    Bleak outlook for an increasingly hard war from WAPO.


    The situation has led to suggestions, most notably from Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark A. Milley, that the time could be ripe for Ukraine to negotiate a political solution to the conflict with Russia -- which almost certainly would require surrendering some territory.

    In a news conference, Milley said front lines from Kharkiv down to Kherson are "beginning to stabilize" and suggested that in the longer term it is unrealistic to think Ukraine could recapture the remaining 20 percent of its land held by Moscow -- "unless," he said, "the Russian army completely collapses, which is unlikely."

    "The Russian military is really hurting bad," Milley told reporters at the Pentagon on Wednesday. "You want to negotiate at a time when you’re at your strength and your opponent is at weakness. And it's possible, maybe, that there will be a political solution. All I’m saying is there is a possibility for it -- that's all I'm saying."
    Clausewitz made the point that war is an extension of statecraft, through violence.

    War serves a diplomatic end. It does not dictate diplomacy.

    While Milley is right, in that one should negotiate from a position of strength, it is a political decision as to when and what to negotiate.

    At the moment, Ukraine seems to have the Russian invaders, if not on the ropes, certainly reeling and back-pedaling. For Ukraine to negotiate now would be for Ukraine to sue for peace, admitting that they can't defeat the Rus. Something rather at odds with current events.

    Perhaps generals should stick to the waging of war and let the politicians, statesmen and diplomats do their jobs.
    You would not enjoy Nietzsche, sir. He is fundamentally unsound. — P.G. Wodehouse (Carry On, Jeeves)

  19. #7019
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, November 20.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...nt-november-20

    Contains an interesting analysis of the Russian milbloggers.

    Key inflections in ongoing military operations on November 20:

    • The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on November 20 that Russian special services are planning false flag attacks on Belarusian critical infrastructure facilities to pressure the Belarusian military to enter the war in Ukraine.[18]
    • The Ukrainian General Staff added that Ukrainian officials have not observed the formation of any Belarusian assault groups.[19]
    • ISW continues to assess that it is unlikely that Belarusian forces will invade Ukraine.


    • Russian and Ukrainian sources reported ongoing fighting along the Svatove-Kreminna line on November 20.[20] Russian sources noted that deteriorating weather conditions are impacting hostilities.[21]


    • A Ukrainian military official stated that Ukrainian forces have liberated 12 settlements in Luhansk Oblast since the start of the eastern counteroffensive.[22


    • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed to strike a Ukrainian troop concentration in the area of Novoselivske, Luhansk Oblast.[23] The Russian MoD previously claimed to repel Ukrainian attacks on the settlement, and this claim might indicate that Ukrainian forces advanced to the settlement.
    • Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and western Donetsk directions.[24]
    • Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces continued to transfer some forces from the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River to other operational directions, but still maintain a significant force presence in southern Kherson Oblast.[25]
    • Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that shelling damaged the infrastructure of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).[26] One Russian milblogger claimed that the shelling came from Russian-controlled territory south of the plant, but most Russian sources accused Ukraine.[27]
    • Russian occupation officials may have purged the occupation Mayor of Enerhodar Alexander Volga.[28]
    • Some Russian sources claimed that Volga received a promotion within the occupation administration.[29]
    • Russian military officials continued mobilization measures amid reports of ongoing resistance and poor conditions.[30]

    Last edited by dutchpp; 11-21-2022 at 03:21 AM.

  20. #7020
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Right now there isn't much chance of a negotiable peace without a major political shift in one of the countries.

    On the russian side, without a political change in Ukraine any territorial gain is not really a victory even if they manage to get all of novorossia, wich is unlikely. Nato membership is unacceptable to Russia on ideological reasons, as would be an international peace keeping force guarding the border. After all, the whole exercise was done in order to keep Ukraine firmly in the RF sphere of influence, a thing they could not achieve economically.

    On the ukrainian side there is the problem of guarantees, they don't trust the current russian politicians or international guarantees that don't imply troops on the ground. This situation remains regardless if they manage to retake all the currently occupied territory or not. Nato and the EU will not have them with active border disputes or civil unrest. Becoming a neutral nuclear armed country is only an option if all major players on the planet agree, and that's unlikely.

  21. #7021
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    I have referred to the present situation as 'the phoney war' from the beginning of the invasion. I ams still not convinced that it will remain as a limited proxy conflict with the Ukrainians as the meat in the sandwich. Putin is now in a corner and regardless of the impossibility of Russia 'losing' or Ukraine actually 'winning',his situation is diminished every week the war continues. Somewhere, somehow, one day something will snap.

  22. #7022
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    There are any number of risks involved with the conflict - one that is seldom mentioned is that Ukr and/or Russia might join the growing ranks of extreme ethnic nationalist countries in Europe.

  23. #7023
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    There is no negotiated settlement until Putin is deposed or dead.

    And the Ukrainians are not dumb enough to agree to any pause.
    Gerard>
    Albuquerque, NM

    Next election, vote against EVERY Republican, for EVERY office, at EVERY level. Be patriotic, save the country.

  24. #7024
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by WI-Tom View Post
    I meant that it's absolutely certain that Russia invaded Ukraine, unprovoked.

    If you're disputing the "unprovoked" bit, see my comments in post #6965. I look forward to hearing what you've got to say. Tom
    Well I have posted on this issue previously as well . . . at some length in fact. Feel free to look them up.

    Just stop and think for a moment . . . when Kissinger, Kennan and many others warned over 15 years ago that the actions of the US and NATO (mostly the US to be sure) were provocative, and then the US went ahead and did what it was specifically warned not to do . . . how can that not be provocative ???

    And when the Pope, Erdogan, the former US ambassador to the USSR, and many others point out the provocations - they mostly get personally attacked and their points ignored.

    Calling us all Rooskie Bots, or Russian lovers only serves to highlight the irrationality of the criticism.

    And I would also argue that there were other more recent provocations as well, including the US role in the 2014 coup, the failure to implement Minsk, the shelling of the Donbas by Ukr forces beginning in 2014 (Russia may have started this - I do not know).

    Of course the invasion was wrong, brutal, inexcusable and unjustifiable - but it was indeed provoked.

    Good essay here by Jack Matlock, former US ambassador to the USSR https://www.commondreams.org/views/2...ukraine-crisis

    So let me close with a Chomsky . . “It’s quite interesting that in American discourse, it is almost obligatory to refer to the invasion as the ‘unprovoked invasion of Ukraine’. Look it up on Google, you will find hundreds of thousands of hits. Of course, it was provoked. Otherwise they wouldn’t refer to it all the time as an unprovoked invasion.” ~ Noam Chomsky

  25. #7025
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    This whole provocation issue dances around the other issue that if Russia played nice in the international arena, there would be no need to so-called 'provoke' it.

    When the Soviet Union went down, the West could have squashed what remained like a bug. It consciously did not, because it wanted to encourage a new Russian behavior. Alas, DNA always tells.

    I respectfully disagree with Chomsky's take, and as for Kissinger, the back of my hand to him. Even going back to the Nixon era, he was overly cautious about the West prevailing over communism.
    Gerard>
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    Next election, vote against EVERY Republican, for EVERY office, at EVERY level. Be patriotic, save the country.

  26. #7026
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Earlier I posted on the media's rush to war . . and was poo-pooed for my trouble. (From the Institute for Public Accuracy)

    On Tuesday, Nov. 15, the Associated Press put out a widely disseminated false story -- which it later acknowledged "erroneously" reported -- that a “senior U.S. intelligence official says Russian missiles crossed into NATO member Poland, killing two people.”

    Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said: “Hitting NATO territory with missiles. ... This is a Russian missile attack on collective security! This is a really significant escalation. Action is needed." (See "Report: U.S. Told Ukraine to Tread Carefully After Missile Hit Poland" from AntiWar.com.)

    "When it comes to our security commitments and Article 5 we've been crystal clear that we will defend every inch of NATO territory," Pentagon Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder told reporters.

    This echoed Biden's declaration while in Poland in March: "We have a sacred obligation under Article 5 to defend each and every inch of NATO territory with the full force of our collective power."


    Biden's statement was widely echoed following the AP report as a rallying cry for more war on Tuesday.


    Responsible Statecraft in "How a lightly-sourced AP story almost set off World War III" noted that Anders Åslund of the Atlantic Council tweeted: "At long last Russian missiles have hit Poland & killed two Polish citizens. Surprising it did not happen before given the irresponsible Russian behavior. @POTUS: You have promised to defend 'every inch of NATO territory.' Are you going to bomb Russia now?" (A CBS News "Breaking News" report featured former ambassador to Poland Daniel Fried, now with the Atlantic Council.)



  27. #7027
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Gerarddm View Post
    When the Soviet Union went down, the West could have squashed what remained like a bug. It consciously did not, because it wanted to encourage a new Russian behavior. Alas, DNA always tells.
    There is no question that we let the opportunity pass us by and now we are paying the price for our lack of vision.
    "Where you live in the world should not determine whether you live in the world." - Bono

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  28. #7028
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    I've only skimmed recent posts, so maybe this is old news?

    There are reports of explosions (as many as 10) at a nuclear plant currently under Russian control. True or false? Deliberate or accidental? I don't think this story will end well.
    "Where you live in the world should not determine whether you live in the world." - Bono

    "Live in such a way that you would not be ashamed to sell your parrot to the town gossip." - Will Rogers

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  29. #7029
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    WBF will not let me reply, with quote, to Sandtown's post #7029, so my comment is:

    When is defending your sovereign territory against aggression considered provocative?

  30. #7030
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    It's hard to see an off ramp for either side. If Putin gives up on the special operation, he will lose power and possibly his life. Ukraine is stuck fighting a war of attrition against a larger neighbor, never a good position to be in, but given their history, they can't trust any assurances from Russia, which was actually supposed to be a guarantor of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. I think this only ends when the politics changes dramatically in one country or the other.

  31. #7031
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    Quote Originally Posted by birlinn View Post
    WBF will not let me reply, with quote, to Sandtown's post #7029, so my comment is:

    When is defending your sovereign territory against aggression considered provocative?
    He may have put you on ignore. He really hates it when people ask him the obvious questions about his statements. He seems increasingly isolated.

  32. #7032
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    He's correct about the media 'geeing up' enthusiasm for a war. Governments rely on it and for industry it can be enormously profitable…...

  33. #7033
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    It's all fun and games until Darth Vader comes.

  34. #7034
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    Default Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Gerarddm View Post
    When the Soviet Union went down, the West could have squashed what remained like a bug. It consciously did not, because it wanted to encourage a new Russian behavior. Alas, DNA always tells.
    And did a pi$$-poor job of integrating Russia in the European polity. Like TFG's desire to be accepted by the hip kids in Manhattan rather being treated as a bridge & tunnel kid, Russia has always wanted to be treated as a part of Europe.
    Last edited by Nicholas Carey; 11-21-2022 at 08:06 PM.
    You would not enjoy Nietzsche, sir. He is fundamentally unsound. — P.G. Wodehouse (Carry On, Jeeves)

  35. #7035
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Hmm, 'part of' is somewhat of an understatement I think.

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