Ukraine

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/14379

Article on RAAM munitions

[LeeG]

Intercept footage.

US releases footage of Russian jet crashing into drone - BBC News

thatexplains it

[epoxyboy]

Intercept footage.

US releases footage of Russian jet crashing into drone - BBC News

And the propeller is tucked well inside the rear fins, so if it's been hit, the control surfaces most likely were too.

[Landrith]

The Russian jet was attacking the drone. It's that simple. It wasn't using guns, it was using an explosive substance. An act of war.

No one seems to remember Hurricane and Spitfire pilots trying to figure out how to defeat Nazi v-2s heading toward England's cities during the Battle of Britain. Somebody found that tipping the V-2 wings with their own aircraft wings would throw off the missile's internal gyroscopes and crash it. https://www.quora.com/Why-did-Britai...ting-them-down

The Russian pilots were trying to defeat the drone. They knew the Americans were providing Ukraine the targeting data for sites in Crimea that the Ukrainians were already hitting with American provided guidance. There are reasons why jet fighter pilots don't use their guns. Several American and British jet fighter types were good at shooting themselves down with their own rounds and brass under some come conditions with damage to the intake side of the engines. But the Russians interceptor aircraft are historically more controlled by their ground base than US fighters and authorization to actually fire on US aircraft probably still can't be obtained from any Russian officer in the chain of command in Crimea.

The drone was doing its job and the Russian pilots will probably be given a medal for somehow doing their job in spite of all the Russian rules they had to break to do it.

[Nicholas Carey]

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/14379

Article on RAAM munitions

More detail on the whole "family of scatterable mines" (FASCAM) here: https://man.fas.org/dod-101/sys/land/fascam.htm

From the FAS article:

Scatterable mine systems enable the tactical commanders to emplace minefields in enemy held terrain, contaminated territory, or in others areas where it is not possible to emplace conventional minefields. They are designed to be delivered or dispensed remotely by aircraft, artillery, or by ground dispenser. Minefields are laid without a clear pattern. All FASCAM mines have a active life cycle and self-destruct (SD) time after their active life has expired. The duration of the active life varies from 4 hours to 15 days depending on the system. FASCAM minefields are planned by the commander's staff engineer in concert with the commander's intent and systems availible. The staff engineer determines location, size, time and density of the minefields. He coordinates with appropriate staff officers to ensure systems are available at the time and location for placement.
.
.
.
Increased tactical flexibility. After allowing enough time for the minefield to self-destruct, the minefield is cleared, and the commander can move through an area that was previously denied to enemy or friendly forces. In many cases, the self-destruct period may be set at only a few hours. This feature allows for effective counterattacks to the enemy’s flanks and rear areas.

It should be noted that these FASCAM weapons are all cluster munitions, whose manufacture, transfer, stockpiling and use is prohibited under The Convention on Cluster Munitions (Dublin, 2008), to which neither the US, Ukraine, or Russia are parties.

https://www.clusterconvention.org/

The self-destruct feature is nice, though, both from a tactical perspective and from a "let's not be still killing people 50 years from now" perspective.

I do wonder, though, what the failure rate of the self-destruct might be — nothing's perfect, and stuff that gets thrown long distances and impacts the ground at high speed is likely to be significantly less perfect than most.

[Splodge]

They could tip the V1 (Just, in a dive)) With the latest Spitfires, Hurricane wasn't fast enough. The V1 was a winged flying bomb powered by a pulse jet engine. The V2 was a rocket powered ballistic missile (designed by Werner Von Braun of Appollo etc) travelling at approx mach2. You didn't hear it arrive until after it had gone off. My mum lived in north London during the Blitz and wasn't evacuated until the doodlebugs started arriving.

[John Meachen]

No one seems to remember Hurricane and Spitfire pilots trying to figure out how to defeat Nazi v-2s heading toward England's cities during the Battle of Britain. Somebody found that tipping the V-2 wings with their own aircraft wings would throw off the missile's internal gyroscopes and crash it. https://www.quora.com/Why-did-Britai...ting-them-down

The Russian pilots were trying to defeat the drone. They knew the Americans were providing Ukraine the targeting data for sites in Crimea that the Ukrainians were already hitting with American provided guidance. There are reasons why jet fighter pilots don't use their guns. Several American and British jet fighter types were good at shooting themselves down with their own rounds and brass under some come conditions with damage to the intake side of the engines. But the Russians interceptor aircraft are historically more controlled by their ground base than US fighters and authorization to actually fire on US aircraft probably still can't be obtained from any Russian officer in the chain of command in Crimea.

The drone was doing its job and the Russian pilots will probably be given a medal for somehow doing their job in spite of all the Russian rules they had to break to do it.

The V2's were well after the Battle of Britain and I believe the Typhoon was one of the very few fighters with the speed and ruggedness to accomplish the task.

[WX]

And the propeller is tucked well inside the rear fins, so if it's been hit, the control surfaces most likely were too.

The fuel dump could have bent the blades.

[WX]

The V2's were well after the Battle of Britain and I believe the Typhoon was one of the very few fighters with the speed and ruggedness to accomplish the task.

Tempest...V1s though. Nothing could catch a V2.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

V-1. Nobody is going to get near, let alone shoot down, a ballistic missile travelling at Mach 2 in a piston engine fighter and the V-2 did not have wings to tip.

The V-I was a “flying bomb”, with wings, launched from a ramp and propelled by a pulse jet motor with a gyroscopic guidance system; it was found that by flying alongside the bomb and flipping it over with a wing tip under the bomb’s wing tip the gyroscope could be “toppled” and the V-I would crash.

[Landrith]

I agree I miss-remembered V1. I think the real controversy is where the US Drone was intercepted. The transponder was probably off to keep American civilians from monitoring where the drone was flying. I used to see a circling reconnaissance aircraft over the Black Sea last year on some Youtube channels. I sort of get the Russia posted security concerns, but not sure I have any reason why the afternoon Pentagon stated intention to operate aircraft where International Law permits isn't valid or a good policy goal to continue. We are doing the same to China. But, we are a participant in the Ukraine War so we have more limitation than we do with asserting International Law rights near China.

[Ted Hoppe]

Poland to transfer MiG-29 jets to Ukraine within days

https://www.dw.com/en/poland-to-tran...ays/a-65009216

Polish President Andrzej Duda said the nation is set to hand over Soviet-made MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine in coming days.
"In the coming days we will first transfer, if I remember correctly, four fully operational planes to Ukraine," Duda told a news conference in Warsaw.
Duda said that Poland's air force would replace the planes it gives to Kyiv with South Korean-made FA-50 jets and American-made F-35s.
The transfer would make Poland the first NATO member to have delivered the fighter jets, as Kyiv appeals for warplanes to fight Russian forces.

Poland and Slovakia urge allies to send warplanes

Poland's leaders said last week that sending the warplanes would only be done within a larger international coalition. Slovakia has declared readiness to provide its MiG-29 planes to Kyiv too.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki on Tuesday said that Warsaw could send its MiGs within weeks, but didn’t clarify whether there was any coalition ready to follow suit.
Ukraine's air force is familiar with planes and could fly them immediately without additional training.
Why MiGs are easier than F-16s

Poland's decision to send the fighter jets follows weeks in which Ukraine was appealing for the delivery of more modern Western-made fighter jets like the F-16s.
US officials on Thursday said their decision on supplying Kyiv with F-16s was unaffected by the Polish decision, with US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby telling reporters that: "It doesn't change our calculus with regards to F-16s."
Ukraine's Air Force already operates Su-24, Su-25 and MiG-29 Soviet-era fighter jets, meaning its pilots are familiar with these systems.

[dutchpp]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, March 16.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...-march-16-2023

Key Takeaways

• The Russian Federal State Security Service (FSB) appears to be trying to penetrate the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) in a way that is reminiscent of the KGB’s involvement with the Soviet military and industrial base.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that he received a press question exposing a plot spearheaded by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev to undermine and “neutralize” the Wagner Group.
• Western news agencies confirmed that Chinese companies have sold military and dual-use equipment to unidentified Russian entities. These sales appear small in scale but could alleviate strain on Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) and circumvent Western attempts to limit Russian access to microchips.
• Syrian President Bashar Assad used a staged interview with Russian outlet RIA Novosti to amplify notable Russian information operations.
• Polish President Andrzej Duda stated that Poland will give Ukraine four MiG-29 fighter jets.
• Russian’s decision to redeploy elements of its “peacekeeping force” from Nagorno-Karabakh to Ukraine is eroding Russia’s influence with Armenia.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to reassure the Russian public that the war in Ukraine will not have significant long term economic consequences, likely as part of the Kremlin’s effort to prepare Russians for a protracted war.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued advancing in and around Bakhmut and continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka–Donetsk City line and in Western Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted localized assaults in Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces increased their naval presence in the Black Sea.

[WszystekPoTrochu]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, March 16.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...-march-16-2023

• Polish President Andrzej Duda stated that Poland will give Ukraine four MiG-29 fighter jets.
  

Four immediately, 12 in the coming months.

Also, Czechia and Slovakia wish to do follow the example.

[dutchpp]

^ Which is relevant because these MIG's 29 are modified and can fire the more modern Western ARAM rockets, helpful during a spring offensive.

[Splodge]

From this
Russian Su-27 collides with USAF Reaper drone over Black Sea (key.aero)
bang in the middle of the Black sea

[Splodge]

operate aircraft where International Law permits isn't valid
It's international airspace. Your word salad is nonsensical.

[dutchpp]

And Slovakia donates all her 13 MIG 29's to Ukraine.
mig 29.jpg

[skuthorp]

I imagine they may do more good for Slovakia's future in the hands of the Ukrainians. Moldova seems to be in a bit of trouble. Elacted a man who has allowed the Russians to get a bit too close, or was bouht by them.

[Nicholas Carey]

Just in from the Grey Lady: Turkey to ratify Finland's NATO membership.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/03...-over-nato-bid

Erdogan Says Turkey Will Move to Ratify Finland’s NATO Membership

Updated March 17, 2023, 10:52 a.m. ET20 minutes ago

Turkey announced on Friday that it would move to ratify Finland’s application to join NATO, clearing a significant hurdle for the Nordic nation’s bid to join the alliance but leaving neighboring Sweden on the sidelines for now.

“We decided to start the ratification process in our Parliament for Finland’s membership,” President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey told a news conference, saying he hopes the vote will take place before elections in mid-May.

The announcement came as Finland’s president, Sauli Niinisto, met in Ankara with Mr. Erdogan. The leaders had both telegraphed that the announcement was coming, with Mr. Erdogan saying this week that Turkey would “keep our promise.”

Turkey’s Parliament must ratify Finland’s membership in the alliance, which requires unanimous approval from the 30 nations in the bloc. Hungary is the only other country whose Parliament has not ratified the bids by Finland or Sweden.

With elections in Finland on April 2, the country’s current government decided to pass all necessary legislation to join NATO in order to prevent any period of uncertainty while a new government is formed. So the only votes outstanding rest with the Turkish and Hungarian Parliaments.

Finland and Sweden were spurred by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to drop their traditional military nonalignment and seek expedited membership in NATO. The two Nordic nations had pledged to enter the alliance “hand in hand,” but Mr. Erdogan has held up Sweden’s application, creating the possibility that Finland could join without its neighbor.

On Friday, Mr. Niinisto thanked Mr. Erdogan for the move to ratify but told the news conference that Finland’s membership “is not complete without Sweden.”

Mr. Erdogan has argued that Sweden must take a tougher approach against Kurdish separatists it considers terrorists. Turkey also wants some Kurds extradited from Sweden to face terrorism-related charges.

The Turkish leader faces a tough election battle in mid-May with a ropy economy and high inflation, as well as criticism about his government’s handling of the recent devastating earthquake. The battle against Kurdish terrorism is popular politics in Turkey and plays well among opposition voters, too. And Turks in general like the attention and leverage that Mr. Erdogan’s unpredictability often provides.

Mr. Niinisto has said that Finland, which has Europe’s longest border with Russia, will continue to support Sweden’s efforts to join NATO. The alliance hopes that both nations’ bids will win unanimous support from members before its next summit meeting, scheduled for mid-July in Vilnius, Lithuania.

Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban, has signaled support for the two nations’ NATO applications, but his government has slow-walked the issue. A parliamentary session scheduled for next week was expected to include a vote on both Finland and Sweden’s bids, but it appears likely to be postponed again.

Hungary has wielded its veto power within the European Union over sanctions against Russia to try to secure concessions on other issues, and analysts say Mr. Orban appears to be doing the same thing over Finland and Sweden joining NATO. Mr. Orban is also known to be annoyed by criticism of Hungary within the European Union from Sweden and Finland.

Johanna Lemola, Gulsin Harman and Anushka Patil contributed reporting.

— Steven Erlanger

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

ICC issues arrest warrant for Russian president https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64992727

[dutchpp]

^Although legally complicated this is a nice first step, he is not the first president who thinks he's untouchable. Deporting children is a punishable offense even for the dictator of the RF.

[dutchpp]

And the press release of the ICC.

Today, 17 March 2023, Pre-Trial Chamber II of the International Criminal Court (“ICC” or “the Court”) issued warrants of arrest for two individuals in the context of the situation in Ukraine: Mr Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Ms Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova.

Mr Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, born on 7 October 1952, President of the Russian Federation, is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation (under articles 8(2)(a)(vii) and 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute). The crimes were allegedly committed in Ukrainian occupied territory at least from 24 February 2022. There are reasonable grounds to believe that Mr Putin bears individual criminal responsibility for the aforementioned crimes, (i) for having committed the acts directly, jointly with others and/or through others (article 25(3)(a) of the Rome Statute), and (ii) for his failure to exercise control properly over civilian and military subordinates who committed the acts, or allowed for their commission, and who were under his effective authority and control, pursuant to superior responsibility (article 28(b) of the Rome Statute).

Ms Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, born on 25 October 1984, Commissioner for Children’s Rights in the Office of the President of the Russian Federation, is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation (under articles 8(2)(a)(vii) and 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute). The crimes were allegedly committed in Ukrainian occupied territory at least from 24 February 2022. There are reasonable grounds to believe that Ms Lvova-Belova bears individual criminal responsibility for the aforementioned crimes, for having committed the acts directly, jointly with others and/or through others (article 25(3)(a) of the Rome Statute).

Pre-Trial Chamber II considered, based on the Prosecution’s applications of 22 February 2023, that there are reasonable grounds to believe that each suspect bears responsibility for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population and that of unlawful transfer of population from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation, in prejudice of Ukrainian children.

The Chamber considered that the warrants are secret in order to protect victims and witnesses and also to safeguard the investigation. Nevertheless, mindful that the conduct addressed in the present situation is allegedly ongoing, and that the public awareness of the warrants may contribute to the prevention of the further commission of crimes, the Chamber considered that it is in the interests of justice to authorise the Registry to publicly disclose the existence of the warrants, the name of the suspects, the crimes for which the warrants are issued, and the modes of liability as established by the Chamber.
The abovementioned warrants of arrests were issued pursuant to the applications submitted by the Prosecution on 22 February 2023.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Signed, ratified and in force: dark green
Signed and ratified but not yet in force - pale green
Signed but not ratified - brown.
None of the above - grey

[gypsie]

No more attending G20 gatherings...

[Paul Pless]

No more attending G20 gatherings...

davos is the one that hurts

he's meeting xi jinping next week

[Landrith]

And, yes the Russian pilots were rewarded for bringing down the US drone in International airspace. Russia awards pilots for taking down U.S. drone over Black Sea CBS News https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1LLkbi96JtY
So it is the act of Russia, not a couple rogue pilots.

[dutchpp]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, March 17.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...-march-17-2023

Key Takeaways

• Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a state visit to Russia from March 20 to 22 likely to discuss sanctions evasion schemes and Chinese interest in mediating a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine.
• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko confirmed that Belarusian industry is supplying Russia electronic components, potentially supporting previous ISW assessments that Belarus may assist Russia to evade Western sanctions.
• Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic’s rhetoric about Belgrade’s refusal to sanction Russia is softening.
• The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Commissioner on Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova on March 17 for alleged war crimes involving the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.
• Russian outlet Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported that it did not submit a press request to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin concerning a rumored plot by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev against him.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks across the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in and around Bakhmut.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the outskirts of Donetsk City.
• Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian forces along the front line in southern Ukraine.
• The Kremlin continues to call up reservists throughout Russia.
• Russian authorities reportedly detained three Ukrainian partisans in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.

[gypsie]

Finland is in. Turkey and their little lap dog still holding out on Sweden, moving goal posts by making up new criteria for membership.
Once Erdogan is re-elected it may just pass on without a whimper.

[George.]

Will Erdogan be re-elected after the earthquake?

[gypsie]

In a functioning democracy probably not. He has semi-dictator like control over propaganda. And he's shameless.

[skuthorp]

Vlad visited Crimea it seems, toured a child care centre the same day he was, reputedly, charged with child trafficking crimes over the deportation of Ukranian children by the International Court..
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...n/11491711002/

Of course America does not acknowledge it's authority either…… unless convenient.

[ERGR]

It was most likely a Putin look-alike. He has some stand-ins to avoid taking risks himself.

[Tom from Rubicon]

^ nailed it.

[dutchpp]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, March 18.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...-march-18-2023

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces targeted Ukraine with 16 Shahed-136 drones overnight on March 17-18.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin continued his crackdown against anti-war dissent and misappropriation of military assets within Russia.
• Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is likely attempting to set informational conditions for the Wagner Group’s culmination around Bakhmut.
• Russian regional authorities may be severing their connections with Prigozhin.
• Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova reiterated that the Kremlin has not abandoned its maximalist goals in Ukraine.
• BBC and Russian opposition news outlet Mediazona estimated that Russian forces have suffered at least 35,000 total deaths and 157,000 total casualties.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in and around Bakhmut and on the outskirts of Donetsk City.
• Russian forces continue to erect defensive fortifications along ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in and near occupied Crimea.
• Conventional Russian authorities and the Wagner Group continue to invest significant resources in efforts to involve youth in the war effort and ready them mentally and physically for military service.
• Russian occupation authorities continue efforts russify Ukrainians in occupied territories.