Ukraine

[sandtown]

Giving this whole thing some thought, I come to the conclusion that simply playing defense only means it will take longer to lose..

It is US policy to not give Ukraine enough weapons to win . . . only to fight on.

If that is the case, why continue the slaughter for no purpose ??

From the Gray Lady a few days ago . . . "The Biden administration continues to balk at sending U.S. battle tanks, fighter jets and long-range missiles to Ukraine."

[birlinn]

It is US policy to not give Ukraine enough weapons to win . . . only to fight on.

If that is the case, why continue the slaughter for no purpose ??

You do realise that it is not just the US supplying weapons?
Countries a bit nearer the action are probably a bit more concerned about the outcome.

[John Smith]

You do realise that it is not just the US supplying weapons?
Countries a bit nearer the action are probably a bit more concerned about the outcome.

Still, playing defense as a strategy doesn't work well long term.

[Peerie Maa]

Still, playing defense as a strategy doesn't work well long term.

It will be a long game. Wars are lost if one side runs out of ammunition, which if sanctons and embargos really work, will happen to Pootin.

[WX]

Ukraine has confirmed it carried out a strike in the occupied region of Donetsk, which it earlier claimed killed 400 Russian troops.Russian officials contested the figure, saying only 63 troops were killed. Neither claim has been verified, and access to the site is restricted.


The attack on New Year's Day hit a building in the city of Makiivka, where Russian forces were stationed.


It is extremely rare for Moscow to confirm any battlefield casualties.



But this was such a deadly attack, says the BBC's Russia editor Steve Rosenberg, that staying silent most probably wasn't an option.


It is the highest number of deaths acknowledged by Moscow in a single incident since the war began ten months ago.



In a statement on Monday, Russia's defence ministry said Ukrainian forces fired six rockets using the US-made Himars rocket system at a building housing Russian troops. Two of them were shot down, it added.


A number of Russian commentators and bloggers acknowledged the attack - but said the numbers were lower than claimed by Ukraine.


But Igor Girkin, a pro-Russian commentator, said hundreds had been killed and wounded, although the exact number was still unknown because of the large number still missing.


The building itself was "almost completely destroyed", he said.


He added that the victims were mainly mobilised troops - that is, recent conscripts, rather than those who chose to fight. He also said ammunition was stored in the same building as the soldiers, making the damage worse.


"Almost all of the military equipment was also destroyed, which stood right next to the building without any disguise whatsoever," he wrote on Telegram.



Girkin is a well-known military blogger, who led Russian-backed separatists when they occupied of large parts of eastern Ukraine in 2014. He was recently found guilty of murder for his part in the shooting down of flight MH17.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64142650

[sandtown]

This is not true. You are wasting people's time with such unsupported accusations. .

I have solid sources for my claim that the US and NATO do not think Ukr can win, and are declining to send advanced weapons.

What do you have, other than the desire to close off rational debate with personal attacks ??

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/20...cy-in-ukraine/

[WX]

I have solid sources for my claim that the US and NATO do not think Ukr can win, and are declining to send advanced weapons.

What do you have, other than the desire to close off rational debate with personal attacks ??

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/20...cy-in-ukraine/

That is not what I get from that article.

It is also possible that the quote from the Washington Post is wrong — or at least it is only right for now — and the administration is biding its time before encouraging talks to end the war. The administration may judge that the sides are just too far apart to usefully talk now. War is a form of bargaining where antagonists have to see a similarly likely outcome before they settle, and that sort of agreement, tragically, will take more fighting and dying.So why press Ukraine to settle and take political heat when it won’t work anyway? If escalation risk can be controlled, why not let Russia’s losses erode its demands and get Ukraine a better deal? I hope this is what the administration is thinking, and that they’re seriously considering the size of that “if.”

It's a balance between support and escalation.

[LeeG]

I have solid sources for my claim that the US and NATO do not think Ukr can win, and are declining to send advanced weapons.

What do you have, other than the desire to close off rational debate with personal attacks ??

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/20...cy-in-ukraine/

What I’ve read is that advanced weapons like the Patriot have a big logistical tail so not sending advanced weapons doesn’t imply lack of support to Ukrain’s survival but recognizes the reality of maintaining weapon systems in a war zone. On top of that pouring weapons into Ukraine doesn’t gurantee their survival anymore than pouring bombs on Vietnam guranteed victory or destroying Saddam’s regime was “fighting terrism”.

[gypsie]

Their last civil war on their side still has more negative consequences for Europe than anything they did - outside WW2, and Yalta - in the last 150 years

This is likely one dimension of the real-politic of the situation. Europe actively balancing Russia's defeat without creating the decimation of Russia and the fall out that would reach well beyond its massive borders. Russia disintegrating is a BIG opportunity for China and others. It could bring direct Chinese influence right to the European border.

[Nicholas Carey]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64142650

So, the Russian officer corps isn't smart enough to understand that one disperses troops in a combat zone and doesn't bunk them in a high-rise building? Or above an ammunition dump?

Even dumber than the US Marines billeting an infantry battalion in a high-rise in Beirut in 1983, that got blowed up by a truck bomb, killing 300-some people. At least the officers responsible for that could argue that they were a peacekeeping force and not active combatants.

Ukraine has confirmed it carried out a strike in the occupied region of Donetsk, which it earlier claimed killed 400 Russian troops.

Russian officials contested the figure, saying only 63 troops were killed. Neither claim has been verified, and access to the site is restricted.

The attack on New Year's Day hit a building in the city of Makiivka, where Russian forces were stationed.

It is extremely rare for Moscow to confirm any battlefield casualties.

But this was such a deadly attack, says the BBC's Russia editor Steve Rosenberg, that staying silent most probably wasn't an option.

It is the highest number of deaths acknowledged by Moscow in a single incident since the war began ten months ago.

In a statement on Monday, Russia's defence ministry said Ukrainian forces fired six rockets using the US-made Himars rocket system at a building housing Russian troops. Two of them were shot down, it added.

A number of Russian commentators and bloggers acknowledged the attack - but said the numbers were lower than claimed by Ukraine.

But Igor Girkin, a pro-Russian commentator, said hundreds had been killed and wounded, although the exact number was still unknown because of the large number still missing.
The building itself was "almost completely destroyed", he said.
He added that the victims were mainly mobilised troops - that is, recent conscripts, rather than those who chose to fight. He also said ammunition was stored in the same building as the soldiers, making the damage worse.

"Almost all of the military equipment was also destroyed, which stood right next to the building without any disguise whatsoever," he wrote on Telegram.

[Osborne Russell]

This means repression in Russia will get worse.

The worse, the better.

-- Vladimir Lenin

Better for the revolution, that is.

[skuthorp]

This is likely one dimension of the real-politic of the situation. Europe actively balancing Russia's defeat without creating the decimation of Russia and the fall out that would reach well beyond its massive borders. Russia disintegrating is a BIG opportunity for China and others. It could bring direct Chinese influence right to the European border.

Russia as a buffer state? How ironic is that!

[WX]

What I’ve read is that advanced weapons like the Patriot have a big logistical tail so not sending advanced weapons doesn’t imply lack of support to Ukrain’s survival but recognizes the reality of maintaining weapon systems in a war zone. On top of that pouring weapons into Ukraine doesn’t gurantee their survival anymore than pouring bombs on Vietnam guranteed victory or destroying Saddam’s regime was “fighting terrism”.

There is a very big difference between Vietnam and Ukraine.

[sandtown]

Russia disintegrating is a BIG opportunity for China and others. It could bring direct Chinese influence right to the European border.

Oh, horror of horrors !! Everyone knows that only the Hyper-Power is allowed to do that.

And we have always been at war with East Asia.

But seriously mi hombre, lots of people are extreme nationalists - but you should admit it to yourself and others.

Nationalism over the past few centuries has been almost as dangerous and destructive as testosterone.

[sandtown]

There is a very big difference between Vietnam and Ukraine.

Well, the weather is different, but many of the lies sound eerily familiar.

[dutchpp]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, January 2.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...january-2-2023

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian air defenses reportedly intercepted all drones from two consecutive nights of Russian drone strike attacks against Ukraine on December 31 *– January 2.
• Russia’s air and missile campaign against Ukraine is likely not generating the Kremlin’s desired information effects among Russia’s nationalists.
• A devastating Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a Russian base in Makiivka, Donetsk Oblast, on December 31 generated significant criticism of Russian military leadership in the Russian information space.
• The Russian MoD is likely attempting to deflect the blame for its poor operational security (OPSEC) onto Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) officials and mobilized personnel.
• Russian sources responded lukewarmly to Russian President Vladmir Putin’s staged New Year’s address, while Russian milbloggers lauded Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin’s appearances on the frontlines over the New Year’s holidays.
• Russian forces continued to carry out unsuccessful attempts to improve their tactical positions northwest of Svatove after reportedly conducting a tactical pause.
• The Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies reported that Russian forces are continuing to deploy personnel on the Kharkiv-Siversk frontline.
• Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces are redeploying along the eastern axis while struggling to maintain their pace of artillery strikes.
• Russian forces attempted limited offensive operations in Zaporizhia Oblast and continued efforts to reinforce defensive structures.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to extend financial promises made to Russian soldiers as Ukrainian officials continue to warn of an impending wave of Russian mobilization.

[WszystekPoTrochu]

• A devastating Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a Russian base in Makiivka, Donetsk Oblast, on December 31 generated significant criticism of Russian military leadership in the Russian information space.
• The Russian MoD is likely attempting to deflect the blame for its poor operational security (OPSEC) onto Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) officials and mobilized personnel.
  

Makiivka massacre is a serious blow to muscovite forces. Ukraine reports about 600 casualties, moscow around 60 (cue the joke on the factor of 5-10 of whatever they report), external sources assess 400 dead and up to 300 wounded. Newsflash: cramming up mobiks on a small space above ammo storage is not a good idea. The blame game around this is frantic. They generally try to deliver the impression that DNR is to blame for poor organisation, spies, loud dogs, whatever. Mobiks may be to blame for using cellphones. The military? What military? Moscow? Military command? Never heard of those, it happened in Donetsk so surely Donetsk is to blame.

It's the same pattern as every other disaster they suffer, including classic airplane - both military and civilian - crashes always blamed on pilot errors. Shift the blame away from anyone in whatever power. The problem is, while orcs do have reserves and won't think of lost lives for too long - their credibility suffers, the common folk is not buying the official blame game this time. The discontent not just slowly grows, but outright surges. This is probably a more important gain than adding around 0.4% to total enemy losses in a single strike.

[LeeG]

There is a very big difference between Vietnam and Ukraine.

Certainly. I’m responding to Sandtown’s comment that limited aid in advanced weaponry indicates a lack of support for Ukrainian victory. That weaponry in and of itself is one factor not necessarily the deciding factor in pushing Russia out.

[Osborne Russell]

Oh, horror of horrors !! Everyone knows that only the Hyper-Power is allowed to do that.

And we have always been at war with East Asia.

But seriously mi hombre, lots of people are extreme nationalists - but you should admit it to yourself and others.

Nationalism over the past few centuries has been almost as dangerous and destructive as testosterone.

Get up, stand up
Stand up for your rights

[Osborne Russell]

Well, the weather is different, but many of the lies sound eerily familiar.

As they must to a monomaniac

[WX]

Well, the weather is different, but many of the lies sound eerily familiar.

Come on, you can do better than that.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Stefan Korshak’s latest report says that the Russians are running out of cruise missiles now because the serial numbers and dates on the debris all show late 2022 dates of manufacture, and very few are being fired. He says that a cruise missile carries a warhead of about half a ton whilst the Iranian drones carry about 15kg.

[gypsie]

Stefan Korshak’s latest report says that the Russians are running out of cruise missiles now because the serial numbers and dates on the debris all show late 2022 dates of manufacture, and very few are being fired. He says that a cruise missile carries a warhead of about half a ton whilst the Iranian drones carry about 15kg.

i saw an interesting graphic representing 60 or so Shahid drones. Just a simple silhouette of a drone for each shot down, similar to the way aircrew would paint successes on the plane fuselage in WWII. That was one nights bombing of which very few got through. It really struck me how many of those drones Putin needs to maintain his assault. There's also shipping them, storage and maintenance. (How are they launched?). Just to get scores of them flying toward Ukraine daily will require a lot!

[Tom from Rubicon]

There has to be a low cost way to knock down the Iranian mopeds. I am sure all Ukranian resources are being brought to bear. The M134 Mini gun. Minigun | Military Wiki | Fandom

[Canoeyawl]

Russian "Czars" have not always been popular...
Putz Putin's Putsch will not last forever

In spite of being corrected several times at least,

you persist in thinking that the only problem is Putin.

In Russia there are any number of extremists nationalists worse than he is.

Here is one . . . https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/tur...KOAV4PK4VYIZQ/

Did you also think that the only problem in Iraq was Saddam ??

"never argue with a fool"

[dutchpp]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, January 3.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...january-3-2023

Key Takeaways

• Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a series of instructions for Russian agencies and high-level officials likely aimed at appeasing widespread criticisms of the provisioning and payment of benefits to Russian military personnel and propagandizing the war.
• Putin confirmed that Russia is using a variety of social schemes to justify the transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia.
• Systemic failures in Russia’s force generation efforts continue to plague Russian personnel capabilities to the detriment of Russian operational capacity in Ukraine.
• Degraded Russian military personnel capabilities will likely further exacerbate Russian milblogger criticism of Russian force generation efforts and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin attempted to justify the Wagner Group’s lack of progress in Bakhmut, partially supporting ISW’s assessment that Russian forces in Bakhmut are culminating.
• Russian forces continued limited counterattacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line as Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian military logistics in Luhansk Oblast.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and Avdiivka and may be reinforcing their grouping in western Donetsk Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces have reportedly established positions on the Velikiy Potemkinsky Island in the Dnipro River delta as of January 2.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree that promises additional benefits to Russian forces personnel and Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) who defend the Russian-Ukrainian border

[Nicholas Carey]

Stefan Korshak's latest.

https://medium.com/@Stefan.Korshak/j...s-eecd6c1be234

Look like the Ukrainian HIMARS batteries aren't too worried about counter-battery fire, what with Christmas lights strung on the arty.

https://youtube.com/shorts/1bATijIzErc

https://youtube.com/shorts/1bATijIzErc

[George.]

a cruise missile carries a warhead of about half a ton whilst the Iranian drones carry about 15kg.

Less than a Heinkel 111. Remind me again if the Heinkels ever managed bomb anyone into surrendering.

[birlinn]

Less than a Heinkel 111. Remind me again if the Heinkels ever managed bomb anyone into surrendering.

Poland, Belgium, Holland, Denmark, France, Norway.....

[dutchpp]

Less than a Heinkel 111. Remind me again if the Heinkels ever managed bomb anyone into surrendering.

Rotterdam, may 14th 1940.
rotterdam.jpg

[George.]

Poland, Belgium, Holland, Denmark, France, Norway.....

OK. Have the Heinkels ever managed to bomb anyone into surrendering who wasn't simultaneously being invaded and routed by panzer divisions?

Or, for that matter, the Lancasters and Liberators?

[sandtown]

"never argue with a fool"

Nor wrestle with a pig.

Look, if you knew anything at all about history, you would know that focusing on a single person as the source of the problem . .

is downright dumb.

[Landrith]

Nor wrestle with a pig.

Look, if you knew anything at all about history, you would know that focusing on a single person as the source of the problem . .

is downright dumb.

I thought Donald J. Trump single handedly revived the Modernist era "Strong Man Theory of History" https://archive.org/details/KQEH_201...manpour_on_PBS

[sandtown]

One solution to the problem of nuclear escalation . . .

refuse the order. Such orders are illegal . . .

(There is precedent - during the Cuban missile crisis a Soviet naval officer was ordered to fire a nuke - and refused to do it)

This ad was published in the Kitsap Sun newspaper - in Bremerton, WA

https://www.gzcenter.org/wp-content/...SapSun_A07.pdf

[ERGR]

The weather forecast for the war zones in Ukraine predicts several degrees below freezing from Saturday and onwards. As the mud freezes along with Russian soldiers, we will find out if this sets the conditions for a Russian offensive as Landrith believes or if the conditions favour Ukraine which is my understanding.

/Erik