Ukraine

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

I have noticed that our new friend Vadim takes things very literally.

There is a ferry between St Petersburg and Kaliningrad, just as there is a pipeline from Russia to China. But the ferry can’t move much of the enclave’s needs and the pipeline doesn’t run from the gas fields that supply Europe.

[George Jung]

Rather a 'pattern'.

[Canoez]

If Kaliningrad is so difficult for Russia to supply, perhaps they should just give it back.

[Vadim 68]

If Kaliningrad is so difficult for Russia to supply, perhaps they should just give it back.

It was offered to Lithuania at the break up of the Soviet Union, they did not want it. It was offered back to Germany at an earlier time also, and they did not want it either.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

It was offered to Lithuania at the break up of the Soviet Union, they did not want it. It was offered back to Germany at an earlier time also, and they did not want it either.

That’s interesting. I presume Lithuania passed because the population are almost all Russian and that would have meant even more Russians in Lithuania? As for Germany it’s the wrong side of Poland and Germany has “been there, done that”?

[johnw]

It was offered to Lithuania at the break up of the Soviet Union, they did not want it. It was offered back to Germany at an earlier time also, and they did not want it either.

Why didn't they offer it to Poland?

[WszystekPoTrochu]

It was offered to Lithuania at the break up of the Soviet Union, they did not want it. It was offered back to Germany at an earlier time also, and they did not want it either.

If you had any credibility left, You've lost it with this post

[johnw]

If you had any credibility left, You've lost it with this post

Gorbachev says the offer to Germany was never made, and I think ethnic Germans are pretty scarce in the territory. And the offer to Lithuania was made by Nikita Khrushchev, so way before the breakup. If Russia actually wanted to get rid of Kalingrad, which they don't, Poland would be right there.

[Lew Barrett]

Gorbachev says the offer to Germany was never made, and I think ethnic Germans are pretty scarce in the territory. And the offer to Lithuania was made by Nikita Khrushchev, so way before the breakup. If Russia actually wanted to get rid of Kalingrad, which they don't, Poland would be right there.

I was working on Rita about 30 years ago during a pleasant afternoon in Seattle while listening to NPR. A program about the debacle involving Iranian democracy, Mohammad Mosaddegh and US and British involvement in the subsequent coup d'etat was on air. It featured Chomsky who detailed the events particularly clearly and convincingly. He went on about Vietnam as well. That was when he came to my attention as more than a name and I respect him and still listen to his opinions. But he's wrong about this and I think you put your finger on his bias.

[Nicholas Carey]

It was offered to Lithuania at the break up of the Soviet Union, they did not want it. It was offered back to Germany at an earlier time also, and they did not want it either.

Königsberg (it's Prussia, let's use the correct name) was offered to Lithuania by Khrushchev in the 1950s. And in 1990, a Russian general (?!) supposedly offered Königsberg to West Germany, who apparently ignored it or just said, ahhh, nein.

But given that Russification was so effective in Königsberg (just 0.8% of the population in 2010 was ethnic German), who in their right mind would take the place? Be like, I don't know, the US voluntarily accepting Quebec or something.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaliningrad_question

In the 1950s, Nikita Khrushchev suggested that the Lithuanian SSR should annex Kaliningrad Oblast. The offer was refused by the Lithuanian Communist Party leader Antanas Sniečkus, who did not wish to alter the ethnic composition of his republic.[9][10] In the late Soviet era, rumors spread that the Oblast might be converted into a homeland for Soviet Germans.[11]

Kaliningrad Oblast remained part of the Soviet Union until its dissolution in 1991, and since then has been an exclave of the Russian Federation. After the Soviet collapse, some descendants of the expellees and refugees traveled to the city to examine their roots.[12] According to the 2010 Russian Census, 7,349 ethnic Germans live in the Oblast, making up 0.8% of the population.[13]
In Germany, the status of Kaliningrad (Königsberg) and the rights of expellees was a mainstream political issue until the 1960s, when the shifting political discourse increasingly associated similar views with right-wing revisionism.[8]

According to a Der Spiegel article published in 2010, in 1990 the West German government received a message from the Soviet general Geli Batenin, offering to return Kaliningrad.[14] The offer was never seriously considered by the Bonn government, who saw reunification with the East as its priority.[14] However, this story was later denied by Mikhail Gorbachev.[15]

In 2001, the EU was alleged to be in talks with Russia to arrange an association agreement with the Kaliningrad Oblast, at a time when Russia could not repay £22 billion debt owed to Berlin, which may have given Germany some influence over the territory.[12] Claims of "buying back" Kaliningrad (Königsberg) or other "secret deals" were repudiated by both sides.[16]

[WszystekPoTrochu]

Königsberg (it's Prussia, let's use the correct name) was offered to Lithuania by Khrushchev in the 1950s.

It's apocryphal

But given that Russification was so effective in Königsberg (just 0.8% of the population in 2010 was ethnic German

Russification was not effective, there just was no one to russify left
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evacua...f_East_Prussia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight...ed_territories
Add scorched earth tactics on nazi side, erasing cultural heritage on soviet side and voilà - a memoryless, populationless terrain to make their own.

[George.]

I bet that if given the opportunity most people in Konigsberg would vote to join Germany.

[WX]

Gorbachev says the offer to Germany was never made, and I think ethnic Germans are pretty scarce in the territory. And the offer to Lithuania was made by Nikita Khrushchev, so way before the breakup. If Russia actually wanted to get rid of Kalingrad, which they don't, Poland would be right there.

In 1945 there were 5,000,000 ethnic Germans outside the German border. I believe 4,000,000 died.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

The Wikipedia article on Konigsberg is quite interesting:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%B6nigsberg

[WszystekPoTrochu]

In 1945 there were 5,000,000 ethnic Germans outside the German border. I believe 4,000,000 died.

12-14 million displaced, 400-500 thousand died

the number of 2 million dead was pulled from thin air in late 50s for political reasons

[sandtown]

If you had any credibility left, You've lost it with this post

One might question your cred as well.

[johnw]

One might question your cred as well.

Except that the information he's posted checks out.

You still haven't explained why America doing bad things in the past justifies Putin invading Ukraine. Have you read the Bucharest Memorandum yet? Why do you never answer questions raised about your past posts?

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Stefan is back:

https://medium.com/@Stefan.Korshak/j...s-23ba7c1a293a

[George Jung]

unclear if this is 'okay to post here' - let me know.

Turkey is looking like the sour grapes candidate - basically holding the addition to NATO membership hostage:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/22/w...rkey-nato.html

[WX]

12-14 million displaced, 400-500 thousand died

the number of 2 million dead was pulled from thin air in late 50s for political reasons

I was taking my figures from a documentary i saw sometime back. So my memory could be faulty.

[WX]

My Ukrainian Facebook friend has gone dark, it's possible the Russians have throttled back internet access.

[johnw]

I was working on Rita about 30 years ago during a pleasant afternoon in Seattle while listening to NPR. A program about the debacle involving Iranian democracy, Mohammad Mosaddegh and US and British involvement in the subsequent coup d'etat was on air. It featured Chomsky who detailed the events particularly clearly and convincingly. He went on about Vietnam as well. That was when he came to my attention as more than a name and I respect him and still listen to his opinions. But he's wrong about this and I think you put your finger on his bias.

In a way, I think Chomsky and Putin have the same assumptions about democracy -- that it is always a sham, that people are always and everywhere manipulated.

I have a stupidity theory of history. I think there are always conspiracies, cliques, gangs, and cabals attempting to shape history, and most of the time, they fail, or their plans go as scripted but produce the wrong (or at least unexpected) results. I have a theory that the more secret an organization is, the more incompetent it is likely to become, because the first thing they make secret is their mistakes, and the last thing they want is accountability.

As a consequence, I am not only cynical about the ability of democracies to function cleanly, I am also cynical about the ability of plotters to control it. As a result, I admit to a wider array of actors who actually make history that Chomsky or Putin.

I once wrote a short story about a man who one day realizes that he is God, and everything is his fault. I think that's how Chomsky sees American power, and I think that is the sort of illusion Putin is chasing. He can never achieve the sort of power he wants, because he is mistaken about the nature of the world.

[johnw]

My Ukrainian Facebook friend has gone dark, it's possible the Russians have throttled back internet access.

hope he's alright.

[sandtown]

You still haven't explained why America doing bad things in the past justifies Putin invading Ukraine. Have you read the Bucharest Memorandum yet? Why do you never answer questions raised about your past posts?

Why do you want to fight to the last Ukrainian ??

I owe you zero in the way of explanations or answers.

Try being halfway civil.

[Nicholas Carey]

It was offered to Lithuania at the break up of the Soviet Union, they did not want it. It was offered back to Germany at an earlier time also, and they did not want it either.

If you had any credibility left, You've lost it with this post

One might question your cred as well.

Why do you want to fight to the last Ukrainian ??

I owe you zero in the way of explanations or answers.

Try being halfway civil.

So . . .

Are you, sandtown, a sock puppet of Vadim 68, or is Vadim 68 your sock puppet?

inquiring minds want to know.

[dutchpp]

If you don't succeed in changing the tone just gently add another troll and start stirring.

[Osborne Russell]

Why do you want to fight to the last Ukrainian ??

Because smashing Russian aggression in Ukraine is vital to world peace.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Why do you want to fight to the last Ukrainian ??

I owe you zero in the way of explanations or answers.

Try being halfway civil.

As long as the Ukrainians want to fight, I will support them.

[George.]

Why do you want to fight to the last Ukrainian ??

It is the Ukrainians that want to fight to the last, because

everyone has relatives or friends who were or are in occupied territory, or had to evacuate, or had home or property damaged by the Russians

From ACB's link. You should read the whole thing and then comment.

[johnw]

Why do you want to fight to the last Ukrainian ??

I owe you zero in the way of explanations or answers.

Try being halfway civil.

So, you don't want to engage in a discussion, you just want to shout at people? How is that civil?

And how civil is it to mischaracterize my position? Nothing I've said indicates I want to fight to the last Ukrainian. Unlike you, I think they shape their own fate as much as they can.

What do you suggest? That we don't send them the weapons they've asked for, and let them be defeated like the elected government of Spain during the Spanish Civil War?

[sandtown]

Will inflicting a decisive defeat on Russia lead to global peace and prosperity ??

And conversely, will a Russian victory (however unlikely) embolden autocrats and dictators everywhere ??

Stephen Walt says "No", if history is any guide.

https://archive.ph/lQj1c

[johnw]

Will inflicting a decisive defeat on Russia lead to global peace and prosperity ??

And conversely, will a Russian victory (however unlikely) embolden autocrats and dictators everywhere ??

Stephen Walt says "No", if history is any guide.

https://archive.ph/lQj1c

More straw men? I haven't said a defeat of the Russians would lead to global peace and prosperity, nor do I buy the notion that anyone else thinks that. I support the right to self determination of the Ukrainian people. Apparently, you do not.

[sandtown]

More straw men? I haven't said .

Who said I was responding to you ?? Get over yourself.

[johnw]

Who said I was responding to you ?? Get over yourself.

I understand your hostility. You've made foolish statements and don't wish to defend them.

Try being halfway civil.

[epoxyboy]

Will inflicting a decisive defeat on Russia lead to global peace and prosperity ??

And conversely, will a Russian victory (however unlikely) embolden autocrats and dictators everywhere ??

Stephen Walt says "No", if history is any guide.

https://archive.ph/lQj1c

The counter argument to that would be that there is in fact a very long period (right through to the present day) of prosperity and peace post WWII, albeit liberally sprinkled with relatively well contained regional conflicts.
They fact you and I are free to go about our daily business, and we're speaking english, not Japanese or German, and that Japan and Germany are both on the whole now positive influences on the world stage, are all testament to the fact that perhaps Stephen Walt's opinion misses the mark - in my humble opinion

Pete