Ukraine

[C. Ross]

I think we should go back to Andrew’s question. He pointed out that an animal or child can be provoked, but how does one provoke a nation?

There is a long list of countries “provoked” by others in the ways Putin claimed about Ukraine and the west. Has any nation not been provoked? Has any nation not provoked others?

Most nations respond to provocation with diplomacy or show of force. It’s acting with force that is the unusual, unlawful, unjustifiable thing. There are many, many ways Russia could have responded to alleged or real provocation by NATO or the EU or Uncle Sam in his starry hat. They didn’t take any of them. They are solely responsible for this war. No one else is.

[gypsie]

Nobody provoked Russia, it's a complete red herring. Its bandied about by Putin apologists because they want to believe the west is bad.
There was zero chance of any European or other country attacking or invading Russia.

Infact, the very reason Russia thought it could get away with invading Ukraine was that 'The West' was incapable of responding – that is; it was weak, it represented no threat.

Russia may say that having NATO on its borders is a threat, but that's just them saying it.
Russian propaganda has stoked xenophobia internally for decades. It's all out of the autocrat-for-dummies playbook. Internally they are told they are under constant threat of invasion. Their paranoia is not backed up by any action from anyone.

Threat or provocation, to Russia, seems to mean; 'we can't do what ever the f#ck we want'.
Ukraine got rid of its nukes to remove a threat from Russia - look what Russia did then; whatever the f#ck they wanted and there was no incentive to stop them.

The only threat Russia has is its myriad of republics opting out. In the west we'd probably say C'est La Vie, in Russia they'll bomb the carp out of you, kill your children, rape your daughters and drop chemical weapons on your hospitals.

If there is a provocation anywhere it is on the Russian side of their [insert country] border.


I also don't buy that Russia was somehow locked out of Europe.
It is locked in, economically, with Europe. It has squandered the opportunity for full participation that its natural resources affords. It could be a rich, well educated, urbane, cosmopolitan country but instead it has chosen to be ridden with corruption and hell bent on allowing the few to become as rich and powerful as they want. They'll even send their sons off to be cannon fodder for them.

Russia never bought in. Its population is passive and its leaders are greedy and corrupt. Two qualities anathema to modern Europe.


Is this evidence of a threat?
https://www.reuters.com/investigates...europe-defence

Europe is waking up to a new need to defend itself since Russia invaded Ukraine.

[JayInOz]

[QUOTE=gypsie;6760142]

Russia never bought in. Its population is passive and its leaders are greedy and corrupt. Two qualities anathema to modern Europe.


/QUOTE]

Pretty much nailed it old son.

[sandtown]

History, especially the newest chapters, teaches us that moscow regards all written deals a toilet paper. .

Sorry, but that statement is simply Bull-Pucky.

The US has a far, far worse record of treaty compliance than does the USSR/Russia.

It is not even close, and you keep on repeating it without a shred of evidence

You often make good points, but they are diminished by this sort of willful blindness.

I would once more respectfully ask you to read this ,, , https://www.commondreams.org/views/2...ukraine-crisis

[JayInOz]

OK Sandbag you win. America is roooly bad. The baddest ever. When it coms to baddiness America is the winner. But this is about Ukraine- now. Provoked, unprovoked, started last year or last century. Whatever. Ukraine has been invaded. By Russia. They are being killed- by Russians. Right now. Lets agree that it's all Americas fault and see if that helps the Ukrainians. JayInOz

[Decourcy]

Yup. The US is the worstest worst. Other than right now, when one country has invaded another. And omigod….it’s not the US that did the invading. So maybe stop with the self loathing when it’s not applicable. Other people and other countries can be bad too ya know. Give them their moment in the limelight of badness…

They are, after all, working hard for that

[Henning 4148]

Clausewitz made the point that war is an extension of statecraft, through violence.

War serves a diplomatic end. It does not dictate diplomacy.

Clausewitz died 1831. Latest since the Nuremberg trials, attacking another nation is regarded as a crime.

[Nicholas Carey]

Sorry, but that statement is simply Bull-Pucky.

The US has a far, far worse record of treaty compliance than does the USSR/Russia.

It is not even close, and you keep on repeating it without a shred of evidence

I have you on ignore (bliss!) but I have to respond.

What is it with with you, that you have to torque everything in into "Russia good, USA bad" scenario?

Please to explain what you find so compelling about Putin's klepto-fascist Russia?

Perhaps it's the high standard of living the ordinary Russian enjoys? Or the civil liberties and freedoms enjoyed by ordinary Russians? Or something else?

Please enlighten us.

[skuthorp]

fifth column

[dutchpp]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, November 21.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...nt-november-21

Key Takeaways

• Two days of shelling caused widespread damage to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
• The Russian government is continuing to escalate control over the Russian information space.
• Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian special services are planning false flag attacks on Belarusian critical infrastructure in an attempt that would likely fail to pressure the Belarusian military to enter the war in Ukraine. ISW continues to assess that it is unlikely Belarusian forces will enter the war.
• A Ukrainian official acknowledged that Ukrainian forces are conducting a military operation on the Kinburn Spit, Mykolaiv Oblast.
• The November 18 video of a Russian soldier opening fire on a group of Ukrainian servicemen while Russian troops were surrendering has served as a catalyst for further division between the Kremlin and prominent voices in the Russian information space.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in eastern Ukraine amid worsening weather conditions.
• Russian forces continued ground assaults near Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
• Russian forces continued conducting defensive measures and establishing fortifications in Kherson Oblast south of the Dnipro River as Ukrainian forces continued striking Russian force accumulations in southern Ukraine.
• Russian mobilized personnel continue to protest and desert as their relatives continue to publicly advocate against mobilization issues.
• Russian occupation authorities intensified filtration measures and the incorporation of occupied territory into Russia.

[George.]

And now winter has set in. How fast everything freezes in those regions! Reminds me of reading about 1941 and 1942, and how within a couple of November days the Wehrmacht would go from stuck in the mud to unable to dig trenches in the frozen ground.

[WX]

And now winter has set in. How fast everything freezes in those regions! Reminds me of reading about 1941 and 1942, and how within a couple of November days the Wehrmacht would go from stuck in the mud to unable to dig trenches in the frozen ground.

The oil in the vehicle sumps froze and the guns would not fire.

[WszystekPoTrochu]

The oil in the vehicle sumps froze and the guns would not fire.

That kind of winters is rare nowadays, and never was part of what happens in southern Ukraine. The Black Sea isn't big, but it's big enough and warm enough. Machines failing is not their concern. It will get cold enough to kill underequipped draftees, though.

[Landrith]

Our favorite Infantry influencer predictably does not like the M113s being given to Ukraine.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBufXgTnou0 I disagree, it is a taxi, it works and its real field use range is 10 times the M2 Bradley which forgets that it too is only a taxi. No armored personnel carrier can be fighting vehicle on a modern battlefield. As we have seen in Ukraine, even tanks are easily destroyed with light anti armor missiles. The M2 just carries far less and breaks down in 200 miles with parts even the USA cannot resupply its own forces. My last experience as a M2 driver was the turret having an electrical fire during a night time live fire and movement firing range exercise at Ft. Riley. A well maintained older Guard M2, the electrics caught fire, I could not communicate with my own track commander and crew but luckily had made it to a hull down second firing point and the blacked out range safety guy was able to stop me and tell me what was happening. With maybe 10,000 less parts, no computers and a Diesel engine that runs forever, I would bet on a M113 any day.

Its winter war now and real Infantry needs about two more duffel bags of cold weather gear than they can carry in a backpack. I marvel at the documentaries of US Marine Infantry doing training exercises in Norway. They each carry giant backpacks bigger than the soldiers carrying them, and its not enough.

Being in the Guard, I saw trucks still being used in the mech infantry role sometimes. Troop trucks get stuck. M113's don't, low pounds per square inch of tracked foot print, and we seldom took roads, we drove through and over trees. We only feared only hitting stumps at speed in tall grass or going down steep mountain roads if we lost braking. A great taxi. The Bren Gun carrier of the late 20th Century. Everybody forgets the power of mounted Infantry invented by Nathaniel Bedford Forrest. You utilize the speed and range of calvary but you don't fight charging with a sabre when you get to the battlefield, instead you dig in and make range cards. And no one can take the ground you have occupied from you. Especially if everyone you brought has mastered reading grid coordinates and can communicate back to artillery units. Both of these tasks have been problematic for Russian units.

[George.]

It will get cold enough to kill underequipped draftees, though.

And civilians in unheated homes...

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Stefan Korshak’s report for today:

https://medium.com/@Stefan.Korshak/n...k-818b576edb9e

[sandtown]

I have you on ignore (bliss!) but I have to respond.

What is it with with you, that you have to torque everything in into "Russia good, USA bad" scenario? .

Bull-Pucky Sir . . . What is it with you that you are offended by empirical historical truth ??

OK, so what it is with you is that you are so thoroughly propagandized as to be almost entirely estranged from reality.

Open skies, INF, ABM, Iran nukes, N. Korea nukes, just for openers - and it was by no means only Trump.

More here - this list includes agreements signed but not ratified, which I think is reasonable.

https://qz.com/donald-trump-is-allow...-wa-1849812335

Don't write Bull Pucky if you do not want to be called out.

[C. Ross]

We have our answer.

Not “peace talks good” but Russia good America bad. And that explains Ukraine, QED.

[JayInOz]

I keep waiting for him to get to the point but he doesn't seem to have one. It's like a paramedic lecturing onlookers at a traffic accident about the importance of safe driving practices while the accident victim bleeds out at his feet. JayInOz

[sandtown]

We have our answer.
Not “peace talks good” but Russia good America bad. And that explains Ukraine, QED.

Well, some time in Vietnam and Central America and the Balkans and passing knowledge of the Forever Wars in Iraq and Syria and Libya and Afghanistan . .

does tend to have an impact on a person.

How are you liking your Kool Aid ??

[sandtown]

I keep waiting for him to get to the point but he doesn't seem to have one. It's like a paramedic lecturing onlookers at a traffic accident about the importance of safe driving practices while the accident victim bleeds out at his feet. JayInOz

And as usual you display your intellectual ineptitude by launching personal attacks . .

while studiously avoiding the relevant issues and facts.

[epoxyboy]

Bull-Pucky Sir . . . What is it with you that you are offended by empirical historical truth ??

OK, so what it is with you is that you are so thoroughly propagandized as to be almost entirely estranged from reality.

Open skies, INF, ABM, Iran nukes, N. Korea nukes, just for openers - and it was by no means only Trump.

More here - this list includes agreements signed but not ratified, which I think is reasonable.

https://qz.com/donald-trump-is-allow...-wa-1849812335

Don't write Bull Pucky if you do not want to be called out.

Donald Trump is allowed back on twitter? I'm struggling to see the relevance .

[George.]

The Russians are shelling Kherson from across the river. I suppose they will soon run out of drones and missiles, but they can keep shelling all winter. Kherson will take much of the punishment meant for Ukraine. It may be reduced to rubble by spring. No military value, just terror bombing the old fashioned way, with cannon.

I wonder if sandtown has any thoughts on that.

[dutchpp]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, November 22.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...nt-november-22

Key Takeaways

• The Kremlin may be setting information conditions for a false-flag attack in Belgorod Oblast.
• The Russian military has significantly depleted its arsenal of high-precision missiles but will likely still threaten Ukrainian infrastructure.
• The Russian military is likely struggling to replenish its arsenal of high-precision weapons systems.
• The Belarusian prime minister traveled to Iran to discuss economic cooperation and possible security ties.
• Russian military movements suggest that Russian forces are likely reinforcing positions in eastern Zaporizhia and western Donetsk oblasts.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
• Crimean occupation officials demonstrated heightened unease—likely over Ukrainian strikes on Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in the peninsula and ongoing military operations on the Kinburn Spit.
• The Kremlin continues to deflect concerns about mobilization onto the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
• Russian sources continue to tout the forced adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families.

[LeeG]

So what happens now that Ukraine’s power grid is crashed? Lots of diesel trucks going to generators? Lots of assymeteic defense while adhoc repairs happen?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...-water-russia/

During a briefing for reporters on Tuesday, Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, the head of Ukrenergo, the state-run power grid operator, called the damage to the power system “colossal.”
And Russia last week broadened its targets. Oleksiy Chernyshov, chief executive of Ukraine’s state energy company Naftogaz, said in an interview that a “massive rocket attack” hit 10 gas production facilities in the Kharkiv and Poltava regions, including Shebelinka, one the largest production and drilling areas.
“Of course, we will do our best now to recover, but this will take time and resources and material,” Chernyshov said. “Time is of the essence,” he added. “Because winter is now.”

The targeting of the gas supply was a critical development, said Victoria Voytsitska, a former member of parliament now working with civil society groups on getting Ukraine the equipment it needs. If Moscow takes out the gas system, she said, cities and villages across the country could become “uninhabitable.”

[WszystekPoTrochu]

They are importing power generators by thousands since weeks. This is by no means sustainable, nor sufficient. Partial evacuation of Kiyv was mentioned as an option.


Authorities prepare evacuation plans
alternative source

Ukrenergo chief dismisses the need for evacuation for now

Southeast is encouraged to evacuate already

[sandtown]

Donald Trump is allowed back on twitter? I'm struggling to see the relevance .

Thanks for the correction. It should be . . . https://www.govexec.com/oversight/20...omises/148179/

The pro-war at any costs crowd around here not only gets history wrong, but they try to shut down anyone who dares to point out actual facts.

It is political correctness run amok.

[LeeG]

They are importing power generators by thousands since weeks. This is by no means sustainable, nor sufficient. Partial evacuation of Kiyv was mentioned as an option.


Authorities prepare evacuation plans
alternative source

Ukrenergo chief dismisses the need for evacuation for now

Southeast is encouraged to evacuate already

There has to be some covert effort attacking launchers in Russia. Is Russia simply leaving a crippled Ukraine as a parting shot or is the idea that they can come back more easily to evacuated regions with open fire on anything that moves? 2023 looks like our next energy crisis year.

[Decourcy]

Thanks for the correction. It should be . . . https://www.govexec.com/oversight/20...omises/148179/

The pro-war at any costs crowd around here not only gets history wrong, but they try to shut down anyone who dares to point out actual facts.

It is political correctness run amok.

You are not the outlier or victim you think you are. There is zero people of the “pro-war at any costs crowd” here. Zero. Get over yourself.

[sandtown]

You are not the outlier or victim you think you are. There is zero people of the “pro-war at any costs crowd” here. Zero. Get over yourself.

Again, nothing but personal attacks.

You make zero effort to defend the thesis that the US is a reliable treaty partner - more so than Russia/USSR.

That must be because you know it is not true.

The peace crowd faced the same sort of abuse when we were right about Vietnam, Central America, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and more.

I am not going anywhere, got that ??

Actually, I should also point out another factor in the conflict that you keyboard warriors are ignoring,

which is the rising threat of extreme ethnic nationalism in Europe (the US too of course), in particular Hungary, Russia, Italy, Poland, Ukraine, Serbia and more - Sweden even.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...tory-hungarian

[Vadim 68]

. There is zero people of the “pro-war at any costs crowd” here. Zero. Get over yourself.

My comment on the Russians is: kill them all. Teach history a lesson.

Killing is necessary, all the way to Moscow.....

There is reality, and what goes on inside your head. Either you do not pay attention or purposely trolling.

[George Jung]

Trolling?

Well.... *somebody* is.

[dutchpp]

20 questions are usually enough to built a picture of someone, I wonder if an overview of the last 10 posts could do the same ( some of them edited for length, Italics are added by me)

#7068
Actually, I should also point out another factor in the conflict that you keyboard warriors are ignoring,
which is the rising threat of extreme ethnic nationalism in Europe (the US too of course), in particular Hungary, Russia, Italy, Poland, Ukraine, Serbia and more - Sweden even.

#7065
The pro-war at any costs crowd around here not only gets history wrong, but they try to shut down anyone who dares to point out actual facts.
It is political correctness run amok.

#7059
And as usual you display your intellectual ineptitude by launching personal attacks . .
while studiously avoiding the relevant issues and facts.

#7058
Well, some time in Vietnam and Central America and the Balkans and passing knowledge of the Forever Wars in Iraq and Syria and Libya and Afghanistan . .
does tend to have an impact on a person.
How are you liking your Kool Aid ??

#7055
Bull-Pucky Sir . . . What is it with you that you are offended by empirical historical truth ??
OK, so what it is with you is that you are so thoroughly propagandized as to be almost entirely estranged from reality.
Open skies, INF, ABM, Iran nukes, N. Korea nukes, just for openers - and it was by no means only Trump.
More here - this list includes agreements signed but not ratified, which I think is reasonable.
(LINK REMOVED)
Don't write Bull Pucky if you do not want to be called out.

#7042
Sorry, but that statement is simply Bull-Pucky.
The US has a far, far worse record of treaty compliance than does the USSR/Russia.
It is not even close, and you keep on repeating it without a shred of evidence
You often make good points, but they are diminished by this sort of willful blindness.

#7029
Earlier I posted on the media's rush to war . . and was poo-pooed for my trouble. (From the Institute for Public Accuracy) (continued with the overview of articles)

#7027
Well I have posted on this issue previously as well . . . at some length in fact. Feel free to look them up.
Just stop and think for a moment . . . when Kissinger, Kennan and many others warned over 15 years ago that the actions of the US and NATO (mostly the US to be sure) were provocative, and then the US went ahead and did what it was specifically warned not to do . . . how can that not be provocative ???
And when the Pope, Erdogan, the former US ambassador to the USSR, and many others point out the provocations - they mostly get personally attacked and their points ignored.
Calling us all Rooskie Bots, or Russian lovers only serves to highlight the irrationality of the criticism. (continued)

#7025
There are any number of risks involved with the conflict - one that is seldom mentioned is that Ukr and/or Russia might join the growing ranks of extreme ethnic nationalist countries in Europe.

#7011
I used to assign both Sun Tzu and Von Clausewitz in my classes. Most of the students were surprised that KVC was more of a lover of war.
Seeing war as merely politics by other means is a recipe for global disaster.

[George Jung]

Yep. I do believe most everyone here has identified the culprit. But can't ignore, anymore than not picking at a scab.

It's gonna scar, I tell ya!

[Decourcy]

Again, nothing but personal attacks.

You make zero effort to defend the thesis that the US is a reliable treaty partner - more so than Russia/USSR.

That must be because you know it is not true.

The peace crowd faced the same sort of abuse when we were right about Vietnam, Central America, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and more.

I am not going anywhere, got that ??

Actually, I should also point out another factor in the conflict that you keyboard warriors are ignoring,

which is the rising threat of extreme ethnic nationalism in Europe (the US too of course), in particular Hungary, Russia, Italy, Poland, Ukraine, Serbia and more - Sweden even.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...tory-hungarian

No, just observation. You’re the one insulting others. I won’t apologize for pointing out that fact.

- who’s thesis that the US is a reliable treaty partner? As a Canadian I know damn well you aren’t. But that has zero to do with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
- What abuse?
- no-one is asking you to go anywhere, got it? Stop playing the victim card
-national is a problem. And right now, it’s being used by Russia to attempt a takeover of a people who want no part of Russia. Stop ignoring that factor