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Thread: Ukraine

  1. #4971
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    The end of Russia as a significant power is happening now. Russia started a war with Ukraine, a nation roughly one third of its size and with a roughly similar GDP per head, and Russia is not winning that war.

    The Russian First Guards Tank Army, one of Russia’s best forces, has been defeated in battle twice by the Ukrainian forces opposed to it and has on both occasions fled in disorder abandoning many of its heavy weapons without even destroying or disabling them. The first time was in the Kyiv campaign and the second time was six months later in the Kharkiv campaign. One commentator remarked that the Ukrainian 173rd Mechanised is starting to look like the First Guards Tank Army as it is using so much of its equipment…

    https://youtu.be/sNLTE75B0Os
    Last edited by Andrew Craig-Bennett; 09-25-2022 at 08:30 AM.
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  2. #4972
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Putin will not negotiate anything with Ukraine who he considers has been Russia forever. Anyone expecting it from Vlad is a hopeless optimist or delusional.
    But Russia might sans Vlad as long as they can save some face in an 'honourable' peace. Ukraine may not be too happy about the honourable bit.

  3. #4973
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    One lesson that might be drawn from both the great wars of the last century might be “If you go to war with a democracy, be sure to win in the first few weeks.” The democracy will mobilise a far greater share of its population both for military service and, particularly, for arms and related production.

    As late as 1944 Hitler was telling Speer that he could not take German housemaids away from German housewives to put them onto war production - this would have seemed absurd to the Allies.

    Ukraine has illustrated this once again.
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  4. #4974
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    It seems that the Russian defence is cracking around Lyman, and that Russia is taking great losses.
    https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/uk...2-f3dd59b0b5d1
    Tom Cooper's conclusion is that the irrational actions of the Russian army are not according to Russian doctrine, but a consequence of Putin bypassing the chain of command and directly managing the war himself.
    /Erik

  5. #4975
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Echoes of WW2 again.

  6. #4976
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    As if "the West" might atone for all its history by sacrificing Ukraine. The Athenian oppression of Delos, all of it.

    No. Even if it weren't a delusional fantasy, a spasm response to history, even if it would actually work -- no.
    If Russia wins, there will be no Ukraine; if Ukraine wins, there will be a new Russia.

    -- Dmytro Kuleba, Foreign Minister of Ukraine

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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by sandtown View Post
    I love Chomsky - I try to be a good internationalist like him. The world should be grateful for his principled criticism of Israel, and much else. He is brilliant.
    And here in the Bilge his critics merely slime him - and utterly refuse to deal with his points.
    Tell me what they are, as you propound them, and I'll take a whack at it. You can because you love him. Out with it.
    If Russia wins, there will be no Ukraine; if Ukraine wins, there will be a new Russia.

    -- Dmytro Kuleba, Foreign Minister of Ukraine

  8. #4978
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Borders are expected to close for future cannon fodder (they've named it "a requirement of obtaining an exit visa") on Sep 28th.
    Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland already closed their borders for Russians with Schengen tourist visas a few days ago. Finland will probably complete the closure between Tuesday and Thursday.

    Good. There is no good reason to let them in, there's a lot of reasons not to. Germany's idea of giving asylum to deserters and draft dodgers is a well intentioned mistake, as cold as it sounds.
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  9. #4979
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    Quote Originally Posted by WszystekPoTrochu View Post
    Borders are expected to close for future cannon fodder (they've named it "a requirement of obtaining an exit visa") on Sep 28th.
    Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland already closed their borders for Russians with Schengen tourist visas a few days ago. Finland will probably complete the closure between Tuesday and Thursday.

    Good. There is no good reason to let them in, there's a lot of reasons not to. Germany's idea of giving asylum to deserters and draft dodgers is a well intentioned mistake, as cold as it sounds.
    If there were some reliable test, it would be great. They surrender, swear an oath to Ukraine, and enter Ukraine's ranks.

    But then they would have to kill Russians, with conviction. OK, forget it. No time for all the nuance.
    If Russia wins, there will be no Ukraine; if Ukraine wins, there will be a new Russia.

    -- Dmytro Kuleba, Foreign Minister of Ukraine

  10. #4980
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    The BBC investigated advertisements reported on “Telegram” which purportedly were from Ukrainians trying to sell NATO arms supplied to Ukraine.

    Guess what…

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-62983444
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  11. #4981
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Mahan View Post
    Let them in, put them all to work building detention camps and lock them in. That way they are out of harm's way, and they can't do anything subservise. It keeps Putin from sending them to the front. If they build their own detention camps, with supervision, they can plant gardens and supply some of their own food, so they would be that much less burden on the host country. Give them all a tatoo to show as proof they didn't contribute to the war effort on behalf of Russia, which would be motivation for them to not return to Russia after the hostilities end, it would also give the same proof to anyone in their new country if they stay or migrate further. Russia, the country, and Putin, lose personnel without having them KIA. It would also help with preventing them needing to prove, in their new country, that even though they are from Russia, they weren't involved in the combat or support of the war.
    You're obviously ex-military.

    What are we going to do? Send them back? Kill them? Let's think about it . . . have to see the advantage to seize it . . . what could we do . . .
    If Russia wins, there will be no Ukraine; if Ukraine wins, there will be a new Russia.

    -- Dmytro Kuleba, Foreign Minister of Ukraine

  12. #4982
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Mahan View Post
    Let them in, put them all to work building detention camps and lock them in. That way they are out of harm's way, and they can't do anything subservise. It keeps Putin from sending them to the front. If they build their own detention camps, with supervision, they can plant gardens and supply some of their own food, so they would be that much less burden on the host country. Give them all a tatoo to show as proof they didn't contribute to the war effort on behalf of Russia, which would be motivation for them to not return to Russia after the hostilities end, it would also give the same proof to anyone in their new country if they stay or migrate further. Russia, the country, and Putin, lose personnel without having them KIA. It would also help with preventing them needing to prove, in their new country, that even though they are from Russia, they weren't involved in the combat or support of the war.
    I somehow feel leaving them to meet their putinian fate is more humane than forced labour, concentration camps and Nazi-style tattooing

    Or was that another irony we missed? If so, maybe try adding emojis ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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  13. #4983
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Mahan View Post
    Let them in, put them all to work building detention camps and lock them in.
    Give them all a tatoo to show as proof they didn't contribute to the war effort on behalf of Russia, which would be motivation for them to not return to Russia after the hostilities end, it would also give the same proof to anyone in their new country if they stay or migrate further.
    Sounds like Joseph Goebbels is a hero of yours. It is a revolting opinion on what to do with innocent civilians.

  14. #4984
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Mahan View Post
    They aren't tourists on vacation.
    It's war.

    They're doing well, crossing the border, not to be machine gunned from behind and before. Hold your fire; that's humanitarianism.

    Funny, the way they talk about realism. It has a certain unreal quality.
    If Russia wins, there will be no Ukraine; if Ukraine wins, there will be a new Russia.

    -- Dmytro Kuleba, Foreign Minister of Ukraine

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    Default Re: Ukraine

    [QUOTE=L.W. Baxter;6730663]
    you continually point out that no prior events "justify" the invasion of ukraine. so, what is your argument?
    "argument" has such negative connotations, is it an argument you seek or an exchange of views? It was not "justified" in my mind, but i am not the one doing the invading. I met many Ukrainians in the East that after being shelled for 8 years, feel that Russias intervention is/was justified, and some who did not.

    that the invasion was not justifiable, but the motives are nevertheless somehow valid, such that a settlement should come before russia is repelled behind its borders?
    No one knows how this will end. Back in March there was a peace agreement on the table that ceeded Crimea and gave the Donbass region some self recognition. That deal was removed by Ukraine after a visit by Boris Johnson.

    that despite unjustifiably invading a neighboring country with intent to annex territory, a settlement should be negotiated to include ceded territory?
    Not for me or you to decide. Ukranians will decide.

    or what? what actions do you argue for?
    You have asked before and i responded with an answer.

  16. #4986
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Remind us of that answer, please.

  17. #4987
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vadim 68 View Post

    "argument" has such negative connotations, is it an argument you seek or an exchange of views? It was not "justified" in my mind, but i am not the one doing the invading. I met many Ukrainians in the East that after being shelled for 8 years, feel that Russias intervention is/was justified, and some who did not.



    No one knows how this will end. Back in March there was a peace agreement on the table that ceeded Crimea and gave the Donbass region some self recognition. That deal was removed by Ukraine after a visit by Boris Johnson.



    Not for me or you to decide. Ukranians will decide.



    You have asked before and i responded with an answer.
    Before it's deleted.
    If Russia wins, there will be no Ukraine; if Ukraine wins, there will be a new Russia.

    -- Dmytro Kuleba, Foreign Minister of Ukraine

  18. #4988
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Mahan View Post
    I was serious. .
    And that is the entirely worrying thing. Have you ever read the Bill of Human Rights?

  19. #4989
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    I was told by a (PBR boat) survivor of our Vietnam debacle that the Russian kalashnikov's had chrome lined barrels and you would find them in the jungle all rusted and seemingly useless until you looked at the bore, which was perfect. Those rusty rifles shown above may be just a deadly as a new one.

  20. #4990
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    In contrast to the Bilge-istas, here are Zelensky's views on Russian prisoners . .

    Quote: "Ukraine guarantees every Russian soldier who surrenders three things:
    you will be treated in a civilised manner, in accordance with all conventions;
    no one will know the circumstances of your surrender, no one in Russia will know that your surrender was voluntary;
    if you are afraid to return to Russia and do not want an exchange, we will find a way to ensure this as well."

    Annnnnd a rather long article about Chomsky's views of the war.

    https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/06...msky-responds/

  21. #4991
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Canoeyawl View Post
    I was told by a (PBR boat) survivor of our Vietnam debacle that the Russian kalashnikov's had chrome lined barrels and you would find them in the jungle all rusted and seemingly useless until you looked at the bore, which was perfect. Those rusty rifles shown above may be just a deadly as a new one.
    Maybe so. But they also suggest that the equipment has not been looked after properly in either storage or the field. Morale and order counts.

    Andy
    "In case of fire ring Fellside 75..."

  22. #4992
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Sandtown,
    You should have learnt by now that there isn't a common view on anything in the bilge. It's also futile to react on everyone who's wrong on the internet.
    I support Zelensky's position. He has shown to be a good representative for the values we're defending.
    /Erik

  23. #4993
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by ERGR View Post
    Sandtown,
    You should have learnt by now that there isn't a common view on anything in the bilge. It's also futile to react on everyone who's wrong on the internet.
    I support Zelensky's position. He has shown to be a good representative for the values we're defending.
    /Erik
    +1.
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  24. #4994
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    Quote Originally Posted by ERGR View Post
    Sandtown, You should have learnt by now that there isn't a common view on anything in the bilge. k
    Sorry if I indicated any thought of unanimity on the Bilge - that comment was a bit tongue-in-cheek.

    I posted the Chomsky article because several folks asked about his views.

    Zelensky is smart to offer shelter to Russian defectors, deserters, prisoners, etc.

    But I do wonder what led Z to abandon his anti-war stance when he ran in 2018-19

    Wilson Center . . "On the campaign trail, presidential candidate Volodymyr Zelenskyy said multiple times that he would strike a peace deal during his presidency. He used as an electoral weapon people`s desire to have not just a stable life but also a peaceful one. . . . .To a negotiation-minded president, the December 9, 2019, Normandy Four summit in Paris should have served as a turning point: a bilateral meeting with Putin was expected to provide a way out of the deadlock. Zelenskyy wanted to demonstrate that, unlike Poroshenko, he could reach an effective peace agreement."

  25. #4995
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Maybe it was the full-scale assault and destruction on his country?

    That could change ones' mind.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  26. #4996
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by sandtown View Post
    Sorry if I indicated any thought of unanimity on the Bilge - that comment was a bit tongue-in-cheek.

    I posted the Chomsky article because several folks asked about his views.

    Zelensky is smart to offer shelter to Russian defectors, deserters, prisoners, etc.

    But I do wonder what led Z to abandon his anti-war stance when he ran in 2018-19

    Wilson Center . . "On the campaign trail, presidential candidate Volodymyr Zelenskyy said multiple times that he would strike a peace deal during his presidency. He used as an electoral weapon people`s desire to have not just a stable life but also a peaceful one. . . . .To a negotiation-minded president, the December 9, 2019, Normandy Four summit in Paris should have served as a turning point: a bilateral meeting with Putin was expected to provide a way out of the deadlock. Zelenskyy wanted to demonstrate that, unlike Poroshenko, he could reach an effective peace agreement."
    afaik Putin showed no interest in Zelensky’s attempting to reach a settlement. Now we know why.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett View Post
    afaik Putin showed no interest in Zelensky’s attempting to reach a settlement. Now we know why.
    They were talking . . .

  28. #4998
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by sandtown View Post
    Sorry if I indicated any thought of unanimity on the Bilge - that comment was a bit tongue-in-cheek.

    I posted the Chomsky article because several folks asked about his views.

    Zelensky is smart to offer shelter to Russian defectors, deserters, prisoners, etc.

    But I do wonder what led Z to abandon his anti-war stance when he ran in 2018-19

    Wilson Center . . "On the campaign trail, presidential candidate Volodymyr Zelenskyy said multiple times that he would strike a peace deal during his presidency. He used as an electoral weapon people`s desire to have not just a stable life but also a peaceful one. . . . .To a negotiation-minded president, the December 9, 2019, Normandy Four summit in Paris should have served as a turning point: a bilateral meeting with Putin was expected to provide a way out of the deadlock. Zelenskyy wanted to demonstrate that, unlike Poroshenko, he could reach an effective peace agreement."
    Getting invaded will do that. I assume he did his best to reach a peace deal, but once Putin rolled the tanks into his country, all bets were off.

    “When the facts change, I change my mind - what do you do, sir?”

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  29. #4999
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by sandtown View Post
    They were talking . . .
    Afaik, they met once, in Paris, quite soon after Zelensky was elected. The talks went nowhere.

    https://youtu.be/du2DjJEtc0k

    Unless you can point me to the transcripts of the lower level discussions that followed that meeting I shall continue to assume that the unwillingness to compromise was on the Russian side.
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  30. #5000
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    Quote Originally Posted by sandtown View Post
    In contrast to the Bilge-istas, here are Zelensky's views on Russian prisoners . .

    Quote: "Ukraine guarantees every Russian soldier who surrenders three things:
    you will be treated in a civilised manner, in accordance with all conventions;
    no one will know the circumstances of your surrender, no one in Russia will know that your surrender was voluntary;
    if you are afraid to return to Russia and do not want an exchange, we will find a way to ensure this as well."

    Annnnnd a rather long article about Chomsky's views of the war.

    https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/06...msky-responds/
    Well, I read it. Still looks like Chomsky thinks it's the US that is blocking any chance of successful diplomacy, an assertion he really makes no compelling argument for. Putin has been given plenty of off-ramps, and has bypassed them all. Feldman is certainly giving Chomsky's views the most sympathetic possible gloss, but it really doesn't look that good.

    He asserts that diplomacy should be tried. Well, it has been tried. We don't know precisely what happened in those talks, although Chomsky assumes the US torpedoed them. We do know, from Fiona Hill's Foreign Affairs article that the Russians lost interest in a settlement based on the Feb. 23 boundaries because, they said, 'the geography has changed,' which I take to mean that the whole point of the invasion was that the Russians wanted more territory than they had before the war. We do know that Zelensky has publicly disavowed an intention to join NATO.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ightening-grip

    I don't know what concessions have been offered Russia, and I don't think Chomsky knows either. He makes assertions about the Biden Administration's goals for which I do not see a lot of support. Part of the problem here is that he treats governments as individual rational actors. If he finds one person in government who wants to weaken Russia, he's ready to attribute that desire to the entire government. That's not how governments work, unless they are autocracies ruled by one man. Even Putin knows there are limits to what he can do because not everyone in government will support some of the things he'd like to do.

    Whether America's goal is to weaken Russia, the fact that remains is that Putin is the one weakening Russia. Yes, pulling back from the occupied territories would make him look weak. Biden's withdrawal from Afghanistan did precisely that to Biden, but he did it. We are a stronger country because we are no longer fighting a war we couldn't win. Russia would be stronger if it did the same, but perhaps Putin would no longer be able to stay in power.

  31. #5001
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    Whether America's goal is to weaken Russia, the fact that remains is that Putin is the one weakening Russia.
    That has already happened
    Yes, pulling back from the occupied territories would make him look weak. Biden's withdrawal from Afghanistan did precisely that to Biden, but he did it. We are a stronger country because we are no longer fighting a war we couldn't win.
    Russia would be stronger if it did the same, but perhaps Putin would no longer be able to stay in power.
    There is nowhere to go for ex dictators. Nuke or not may come down to the willingness of those in the chain of command to obey his orders.

    Hang on to your hats. The phoney war is drawing to it's nadir.

  32. #5002
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    My remaining life is too short for Chomsky. Why anyone who is an authority on linguistics should consider himself able to pronounce ex cathedra on anything else is far above my pay grade. He can carry on without me.
    Last edited by Andrew Craig-Bennett; 09-25-2022 at 04:21 PM.
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    Default Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Mahan View Post
    I was serious. It doesn't have to be cruel. It's already war, and the stakes and costs are already extreme and not business as usual. They aren't tourists on vacation. Just keep them busy helping to provide for themselves. If they want to cross the border, just let them, with the proviso that they stay in the camp until it's safe to let them either go back home or become integrated to their new home. Sequestered from the war effort, safe from Putin's conscription, and no danger of being spies, saboteurs, or somehow joining the effort against Ukraine. And with as little burden on the host country as possible. And make it an either or situation: join the program or stay on the Russian side of the border and figure out your destiny on your own. Think of it as a quarantine of indeterminate duration, with a citizenship possible after the hostilities are ended, or the option to return to Russia and their homes, after the war, if there's anything left. It doesn't have to be forced labor or reminiscent of concentration camps, and no ovens and no trains to nowhere. At this juncture, with reports of Russian draft age males doing internet searches for the best way to break their own arms or legs to keep them out of the war, a camp in a neighboring country seems like a positive alternative.
    Russian civilian refugees fleeing Russia or conscription to Ukraine are "Protected Persons" under Geneva IV, Convention relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War. Geneva, 12 August 1949., Art. IV.

    https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/appli...n=openDocument

    If they are conscientious objectors or are fleeing conscription, in my opinion, they have a legitimate case to make for political asylum.

    If they are members of the Russian military reserves fleeing the call-up, or Russian soldiers surrendering (voluntarily or otherwise) they are prisoners of war protected by Geneva III, Convention relative to the Treatment of Prisoners of War. Geneva, 12 August 1949, Art. 4.

    https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/appli...2563CD0051AA8D

    Either way, there are rules and procedures to be followed.

    In particular, while civilian enemy nationals can be interned, it may not be applied willy-nilly or en masse. It must be done on an individual basis.

    From the 1958 Commentary to Geneva IV, Art 41,

    . . . It has already been seen that internment and the placing of a person in assigned residence are the severest measures of control that a belligerent may apply to protected persons. Article 42, paragraph 1, stipulates that recourse may only be had to these two measures when the security of the State makes it absolutely necessary.

    It did not seem possible to define the expression "security of the State" in a more concrete fashion. It is thus left very largely to Governments to decide the measure of activity prejudicial to the internal or external security of the State which justifies internment or assigned residence.

    [p.258] Subversive activity carried on inside the territory of a Party to the conflict or actions which are of direct assistance to an enemy Power both threaten the security of the country; a belligerent may intern people or place them in assigned residence if it has serious and legitimate reason to think that they are members of organizations whose object is to cause disturbances, or that they may seriously prejudice its security by other means, such as sabotage or espionage; the provisions of Article 5 [ Link ] of the present Convention may also be applied in such cases.

    On the other hand, the mere fact that a person is a subject of an enemy Power cannot be considered as threatening the security of the country where he is living; it is not therefore a valid reason for interning him or placing him in assigned residence. To justify recourse to such measures the State must have good reason to think that the person concerned, by his activities, knowledge or qualifications, represents a real threat to its present or future security (1).

    The Convention stresses the exceptional character of measures of internment and assigned residence by making their application subject to strict conditions; its object in doing this is to put an end to an abuse which occurred during the Second World War. All too often the mere fact of being an enemy subject was regarded as justifying internment. Henceforward only absolute necessity, based on the requirements of state security, can justify recourse to these two measures, and only then if security cannot be safeguarded by other, less severe means. All considerations not on this basis are strictly excluded.
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    The reports from the front on this war have all been about how mechanised it is. How soldiers almost never fire their personal fire arms. You don't see the enemy you kill, he doesn't see you as he lobs explosives in.

    So I don't quite get how a vast army of conscripts will make a difference other than the chance of a Russian Steamroller (aka cannon fodder) tactic. Overwhelming numbers of troops overrunning positions. The UA will see them assemble. If they have to walk in they will have to be close to the lines. Thinking of supply lines for just the food.

    Or it's suicide, by a nation.
    https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2...uicidal-gamble
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by gypsie View Post
    The reports from the front on this war have all been about how mechanised it is. How soldiers almost never fire their personal fire arms. You don't see the enemy you kill, he doesn't see you as he lobs explosives in.

    So I don't quite get how a vast army of conscripts will make a difference other than the chance of a Russian Steamroller (aka cannon fodder) tactic. Overwhelming numbers of troops overrunning positions. The UA will see them assemble. If they have to walk in they will have to be close to the lines. Thinking of supply lines for just the food.

    Or it's suicide, by a nation.
    https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2...uicidal-gamble
    There's some very intense close up small arms contact video on YouTube.
    without freedom of speech, we wouldn't know who the idiots are.

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