Ukraine

[gypsie]

So the trustworthiness of all other parties - nato, us, Eu, Ukr, UK, and more . .

are not to be questioned ??

That makes zero sense whatsoever.

Let's work our way down the list shall we?
Let's start with Russia cause they're the guys that invaded; Russia, trustworthy or not? Ukraine can safely lay down their weapons in good faith and know that Russia with do likewise?

then I shall ask the same question of say the USA. But first things first.

[Osborne Russell]

So the trustworthiness of all other parties - nato, us, Eu, Ukr, UK, and more . .

are not to be questioned ??

That makes zero sense whatsoever.

Question all you like. You've certainly had plenty of time. What answers have you found?

You have neither questions, nor answers. All you have is the complaint that you might have a question, of some kind, of some urgency, some day. That will not do in the effort to stop Russian imperialism. The ones making the sacrifice to do so could use your support. Is it really the position of Veterans For Peace that Russia should be allowed to invade whom they like? Because of what, the intense racist imperialism of Queen Elizabeth? And how about those Zulus?

You're like a guy complaining about this football game on account of what happened in a game last season. Entirely irrelevant. And your utterly lame fall-back is: "So, you're saying the refs in this game are perfect? Can't be questioned? What about the refs in that game 20 years ago?"

Pitiful.

[johnw]

Russkies are complaining of a shell shortage. Meanwhile their version of Baghdad Bob is saying that peace negotiations are, for now, off the table.

We'll see if they change their tune after inserting more bodies into the sausage-making machine, but I doubt it. The Ukrainians are going to have to kill them all and Putin needs to go before this war stops.

No comments on this? I think it needs more attention:

Ukrainska Pravda
Mon, March 13, 2023 at 3:32 AM PDT






The Kremlin is convinced that it is impossible to talk about peace with Ukraine at the moment. Russia will keep fighting to capture Ukrainian territories.
Source: Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of Russian President Vladimir Putin; Kremlin-aligned news outlet RIA Novosti
Quote from Peskov: "There are no preconditions for a peaceful transition of the process. For us the absolute priority continues to be and will always remain the achievement of our goals. At the moment they can only be achieved by military means".

So, Russia does not want to negotiate. It wants to conquer Ukraine. But that has been obvious for a while to anyone willing to see it.

[Osborne Russell]

So, Russia does not want to negotiate. It wants to conquer Ukraine. But that has been obvious for a while to anyone willing to see it.

Like the man said: No S, Sherlock. None so blind, etc.

[Nicholas Carey]

There are a lot of differences. Again, I am not an expert, but it stands to reason that pressure within, pressure from without, wall thickness, temperature, mechanism of destruction, all the relevant densities (outside, inside, material interface densities) etc all play their part in what it looks like after a catastrophic event such as several hundred kilos of explosives detonating against it.

It probably doesn't need to be a large charge.

From the Federation of American Scientists.

https://man.fas.org/dod-101/navy/doc...ns/uw_wpns.htm

"When used against a submerged target, the greater ambient pressure and the buoyancy of the surrounding water preclude effective uses of this technique. However the interaction of the steam void and the submerged hull can be exploited to severely damage or potentially breach the submarine's pressure hull. The process begins with a close range underwater explosion. If the steam void contacts the hull it will attach itself. In this location, the oscillation of the steam void will cause a cyclic stress to the submerged hull and weaken or breach it. If a submarine's pressure hull is compromised it is unlikely to survive."



And
.
.
.
Once the highly pressurized pipeline is damaged/breached, a stress riser is created, and you almost certainly have a catastrophic explosive failure.

It may not be apparent whether the initial explosion was external or internal with respect to the pipeline.

FAS also notes that stuff doesn't get "translated" (i.e., "moved") all that far because:

"Targets exposed to underwater shock waves will be subject to diffraction and drag loading just like in air. There will be very little translation of targets because the shock wave is of short duration, and objects in motion will quickly be brought to rest by drag in the water."

I can't find the source again, but at least one paper from WW2, shows shockwave velocity to be anywhere from 3,000 - 6,000 feet per second close in to the origin, decreasing exponentially. Think point source and area of a sphere (4/3 pi R^3is not just a good idea,it's a law). So the amount of mass that gets displaced varies as R^3, R being distance from the origin.

[ERGR]

Regarding the US Predator aircraft that the Russians intentionally downed over international water in the Black Sea, I stated that the value was $100 million. Further research by people who care about getting facts correct:

Unit Cost: $56.5 million (includes four aircraft with sensors, ground control station and Predator Primary satellite link) (fiscal 2011 dollars)

Source: MQ-9 Reaper > Air Force > Fact Sheet Display (af.mil)
So, a more realistic estimate of the unit cost for one aircraft is $10 million. It's still a lot of money and it will be interesting to see if the US accepts being bullied by Russia or if they respond to this act of war.
/Erik

[Johan R]

... but I would imaging that the US is sending surveillance aircraft in unarmed to avoid provoking an incident.

Leaving the aircrafts transponder activated while in international airspace would also be less provocative , less reckless and un-professional.

There are supposed to be "mechanisms" in place to avoid this kind of confrontation, as there was in Syria. Not defending what a Russian pilot has done, but i do not agree with US drones flying in Iraq droning innocent people either, can not give the usual "International Rules Based Order" slogan, when its routinely broken by those who quote it most. Certainly not worth starting WW3 over.

[dutchpp]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, March 14.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...-march-14-2023

Key Takeaways

• Prominent Russian milbloggers are reamplifying a longstanding Russian information operation that seeks to weaponize religion to discredit Ukraine.
• Russian authorities continue measures to mobilize the struggling Russian defense industrial base (DIB) for a protracted war effort.
• Russian Su-27 jets forced down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone over the Black Sea in international airspace.
• Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki stated on March 14 that Poland could supply MiG-29 multirole fighters to Ukraine within four-to-six weeks.
• Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces continue building defenses along Russia’s border with Ukraine in order to pin Ukrainian troops to northern border areas.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces advanced within Bakhmut and continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka–Donetsk City frontline and in western Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian forces continue fortifying rear areas in Russian occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.
• United Russia Secretary Andrey Turchak announced on March 14 that the Russian State Duma will consider a law simplifying the legal recognition of missing Russian soldiers as dead.
• Ukrainian partisans injured the Deputy Head of the Nova Kakhovka Occupation Military Administration in an improvised explosive device (IED) attack.

[Canoez]

Leaving the aircrafts transponder activated while in international airspace would also be less provocative , less reckless and un-professional.

There are supposed to be "mechanisms" in place to avoid this kind of confrontation, as there was in Syria. Not defending what a Russian pilot has done, but i do not agree with US drones flying in Iraq droning innocent people either, can not give the usual "International Rules Based Order" slogan, when its routinely broken by those who quote it most. Certainly not worth starting WW3 over.

Oh, you mean the MiG’s were running around international airspace? And with their transponders on?

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Stefan Korshak’s question and answer session and some notes on his trip to almost Bakhmut:

https://medium.com/@Stefan.Korshak/m...x-b24877395bae

A very interesting helicopter.

[LeeG]

Regarding the US Predator aircraft that the Russians intentionally downed over international water in the Black Sea, I stated that the value was $100 million. Further research by people who care about getting facts correct:

Source: MQ-9 Reaper > Air Force > Fact Sheet Display (af.mil)
So, a more realistic estimate of the unit cost for one aircraft is $10 million. It's still a lot of money and it will be interesting to see if the US accepts being bullied by Russia or if they respond to this act of war.
/Erik

That number looks suspiciously low even accounting for inflation. Reading a wiki article on sales contracts puts the cost higher.
Maybe a bare airframe without engine,specific optics and electronics costs $10 million. After Googling around it looks like the Reaper is $34 million. The smaller base Predator was $7-$10 million in 2011.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidha...h=6fbfef5b946f

Things changed when the Predator was replaced by Predator B. The Reaper is twice as fast as the original and carries five times the payload, making it more like a traditional Air Force plane…though it has less endurance than the Predator’s 40 hours which was arguably the rationale for a drone loitering above enemy territory.

The price inflation from $4m to $7m to 14m to the current $32m is no great surprise. Increased performance always has a disproportionate effect on cost, and continual upgrades mean continual price hikes.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...-reaper-drone/

The Air Force has contracted with General Atomics to build over 360 Reapers since the program began in 2007. A single Reaper drone costs roughly $30 million today, according to a Congressional Research Service report released last year.

[phiil]

Only slightly off topic: looking at a photo of our drone,taken down by a Russian fighter, it seems almost impossible to hit the propeller without also tangling with the tail surfaces. Can anyone explain?

[Gerarddm]

It's still a lot of money and it will be interesting to see if the US accepts being bullied by Russia or if they respond to this act of war.

Stop. We didn't respond when a U2 was shot down over Cuba during the Cuban Missile Crisis, and a hell of a lot more was at stake back then.

[LeeG]

Only slightly off topic: looking at a photo of our drone,taken down by a Russian fighter, it seems almost impossible to hit the propeller without also tangling with the tail surfaces. Can anyone explain?

yeah, not enough information.

[Johan R]

Oh, you mean the MiG’s were running around international airspace? And with their transponders on?

According to "flightradar24", none of the aircraft were tracked. I was responding to your post..

but I would imaging that the US is sending surveillance aircraft in unarmed to avoid provoking an incident.

Thinking that the best way to avoid provoking an incident, is that for an aircraft heading directly at Crimea and Russian Airspace, one might either let the counter party know, or at least have a transponder on.

I would have thought that interceptors are sent up to approaching aircraft without transponders on, in order not to give any adversary an edge. The point being the drone was in International airspace, but the US has not denied the transponder was off, that does not strike me as being "professional" unless the whole point was provocation. The US has gleaned some valuable data on response times, and the US public are good for another $36 million or so to replace it.

[Johan R]

yeah, not enough information.

Su27 has a "bow rod"



Easy enough for a skilled pilot to poke the pusher prop of a drone, though not without inherent risk.

[LeeG]

Su27 has a "bow rod"



Easy enough for a skilled pilot to poke the pusher prop of a drone, though not without inherent risk.

That sure seems like a dumb thing to do while sucking in great gobs of air into one’s engines just downwind of damaged parts.

[Johan R]

That sure seems like a dumb thing to do while sucking in great gobs of air into one’s engines just downwind of damaged parts.

No argument from me, and just speculating. Some have extended wing tips.....may have used that instead. Actually surprised there is no video footage released yet.

[birlinn]

Will DeSantis go?
Bet he chickens out!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64880145

[Nicholas Carey]

As far as the unit cost of an MQ-9 goes, [i]Defense News] reported this in December 2020: "In its $696 billion spending bill for the Defense Department, lawmakers added about $286 million to buy 16 MQ-9 Reaper drones for the Air Force."

https://www.defensenews.com/air/2020...the-air-force/

That puts the unit cost at about $17.875m, slightly more expensive than the USAF factsheet's unit price of $14m, but considerably lower than the supposed $100m.

Perhaps the $100m unit price is the total program price, amortizing R+D costs across the total number built.

[Nicholas Carey]

That sure seems like a dumb thing to do while sucking in great gobs of air into one’s engines just downwind of damaged parts.

Not to mention that that polyethylene "cone-fairing" contains a lot of expensive and sensitive electronics. One's CO is unlikely to happy to hear that destroyed your very expensive aircraft's targeting system by headbutting a drone whilst playing chicken with it.

[heimfried]

[...] Thinking that the best way to avoid provoking an incident, is that for an aircraft heading directly at Crimea and Russian Airspace, one might [...]

There is no Russian Airspace around.

[Johan R]

There is no Russian Airspace around.

No. However, there is a term like " restricted air space due to potential conflict or military operations".........much like the one the US has inside Syria. More of a polite request to stay away, it is not unusual.

[Splodge]

You mean
A no-fly zone, also known as a no-flight zone (NFZ), or air exclusion zone (AEZ), is a territory or area established by a military power over which certain aircraft are not permitted to fly.
There is no no fly zone over the Black Sea.

[Tom Hunter]

I don't think the cost of the drone is relevant.

Most likely the appropriate US response is to send manned aircraft to perform the same mission and give them fighter escort. Just to show.

It does not make much sense for us to tangle with a Russian manned aircraft over some idiot taking down a drone this way.

Putin needs this conflict to be Russia vs the USA. He is on the record saying Ukraine not a nation and Ukrainians are not people. He's already killed at least 100,000 of them (soldiers, civilians, people who were displaced and died of disease or despair). It's important to him that if he loses he loses to the USA, not to a group of humans that are not people who come from a place that is not a nation.

The USA is better served by a carefully measured response that shows capability but not hostility. So is Ukraine.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Sometimes, I’m still quite proud of the British Foreign Office:

https://twitter.com/fionajlincs/stat...cVMQABVuL2BQuQ

[WX]

[dutchpp]

The Russian offensive campaign assessment, March 15.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...-march-15-2023

Key Takeaways

• The overall pace of Russian operations in Ukraine appears to have decreased compared to previous weeks.
• The overall Wagner Group offensive on Bakhmut appears to be nearing culmination.
• International journalists reportedly obtained the Kremlin’s long-term strategy document for destabilizing and reintegrating Moldova back into the Russian sphere of influence by 2030.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin commented on the reports about the dismissal of the Russian Commander of the Airborne Forces Mikhail Teplinsky - likely revealing Teplinsky’s affiliation with Wagner.
• The Russian State Duma adopted the law on punishment for “discreditation” of all participants of the “special military operation” in Ukraine on March 14 to foster self-censorship in Russian society.
• Continued Russian efforts to portray the war in Ukraine as existential to Russian domestic security by establishing additional air defense installations in areas that will never see hostilities is reportedly sparking internal backlash.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin used his March 15 meeting with the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office to continue to bolster his reputation as an involved and effective wartime leader.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Syrian President Bashar al Assad in Moscow, Russia on March 15.
• Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks northwest of Svatove and conducted limited ground attacks on the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued advancing in and around Bakhmut and conducted ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces attempted to conduct offensive actions across the Kakhovka Reservoir in Kherson Oblast.
• The Kremlin reportedly tasked the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) to recruit 400,000 contract servicemen starting on April 1.
• Ukrainian partisans killed a Russian collaborator in an IED attack in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

“The Kremlin reportedly tasked the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) to recruit 400,000 contract servicemen starting on April 1.”

The Russian Government seems to have only one idea.

[JayInOz]

Negotiation Russian style.

[Lugs]

I'm fairly critical of the unions in Australia, but this was a very interesting clip of a prominent Oz unionist, discussing her meetings with Pudlin and his vitriolic attitude towards the west

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-...rson/102031280

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

I'm fairly critical of the unions in Australia, but this was a very interesting clip of a prominent Oz unionist, discussing her meetings with Pudlin and his vitriolic attitude towards the west

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-...rson/102031280

That is interesting.

[Johan R]

Intercept footage.

US releases footage of Russian jet crashing into drone - BBC News

[George.]

Looks like unintentional. The jet was trying to dump more fuel on the drone and missed the maneuver.

[Lugs]

Looks like unintentional. The jet was trying to dump more fuel on the drone and missed the maneuver.

The Russian jet was attacking the drone. It's that simple. It wasn't using guns, it was using an explosive substance. An act of war.