Ukraine

[sandtown]

So, in all that word salad, have you said Putin is trustworthy or not.

So the trustworthiness of all other parties - nato, us, Eu, Ukr, UK, and more . .

are not to be questioned ??

That makes zero sense whatsoever.

[L.W. Baxter]

So the trustworthiness of all other parties - nato, us, Eu, Ukr, UK, and more . .

are not to be questioned ??

That makes zero sense whatsoever.

there is no "other" party that invaded ukraine.

the only way that the trustworthiness of "other" parties is germane is if the russian invasion is justified by the qualities of other parties.

if you argue that the russian invasion of ukraine was justified because of the lack of trustworthiness of other parties, you are doing putin's work.

if you argue that the russian invasion of ukraine was not justifiable, then the trustworthiness of other parties is not relevant.

[Rumars]

Makes you wonder if that is by design, yannow?

Primarily its system inertia coming back to bite them. Russia has universal compulsory military service but they can't afford it anymore, so in practice only a small percentage of every years males are actually drafted. From those a lot are volunteers, using the service as qualification (can't be a mall security guard otherwise, hunting license is easier to obtain, if you're lucky you get a free commercial driver license out of it), or from communities where military service still caries some prestige. To this you add the high percentage of draft dodging via corruption brought by the hazing problems, and the result is a reservist force where certain socio-economic and ethnic groups are overrepresented. The situation is a lot more balanced in the officers corps, since that requires higher education, and that's where those same groups are underrepresented.

[epoxyboy]

Shaped charges do not completely remove meters of pipe and shatter them so that they are either buried in the mud, or spread meters away from their original location, as was reported from the ROV survey. Shaped charges make a clean cut as you would get with a saw, leaving the cut ends pretty much where they were.

NS1 operated at up to 220bar, 3200psi, with an internal diameter over 1100mm. That's a big steel balloon just waiting to go pop.
NS2 was at about half that pressure at the time.
I'd suggest there was more than enough stored energy there to blow bits of pipeline far and wide, if an explosive started the thing unzipping. This is the aftermath of a steel oxy tank (a mere 2000psi) letting go - it's actually only about 4 hours drive away from home.
Screenshot_20230314_202924_Chrome.jpg

FWIW, the water pressure at 80 metres is less than 1/10th the NS1 operating pressure, so not much help in containing things.

Pete

[dutchpp]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, March 13.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...-march-13-2023

Key Takeaways

• A member of the Kremlin-affiliated Valdai Discussion Club accused Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin of pursuing political objectives in Russia that are endangering Wagner forces in Bakhmut. This attack on Prigozhin is in line with ISW’s March 12 assessment that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) may be deliberately expending Wagner forces in Bakhmut to derail Prigozhin’s political aspirations.
• Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov continues efforts to maintain Chechnya’s relevance in the Russian political and military sphere.
• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko met with Iranian officials in Tehran on March 13 to expand bilateral cooperation and bolster sanctions mitigations.
• Russian milbloggers continue to speculate about a prospective Ukrainian counteroffensive in southern Ukraine, suggesting increasing concern in the Russian information space about Ukrainian combat capabilities as Russian forces pin themselves on offensive operations in Bakhmut.
• A Russian State Duma bill aiming to raise the conscription age suggests that the Kremlin is not planning to conduct full mobilization in the future.
• The Russian military is reportedly employing the newly created “assault detachments” in different manners across different tactical situations.
• Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine Iryna Vereshchuk confirmed that Russia has illegally deported 2,161 Ukrainian orphans to Russia.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks throughout the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and made marginal gains northeast of Kupyansk and east of Siversk.
• Russian forces continued making advances in and around Bakhmut but have not succeeded in completing a turning movement, envelopment, or encirclement of the city as of March 13.
• Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks across the Donetsk Oblast front line.
• Ukrainian forces continue to conduct raids against areas in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.
• Subordination of mobilized Russian military personnel to Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republic (DNR/LNR) formations is generating increasing discontent.
• Russian occupation officials continue to introduce new provisions to discourage and restrict the use of the Ukrainian language in educational facilities.

[heimfried]

NS1 operated at up to 220bar, 3200psi, with an internal diameter over 1100mm. That's a big steel balloon just waiting to go pop.
NS2 was at about half that pressure at the time.

As Russia had stopped the gas flow in NS1 some days before the explosions occurred - would the normal operation pressure maintained in this case?

[WszystekPoTrochu]

As Russia had stopped the gas flow in NS1 some days before the explosions occurred - would the normal operation pressure maintained in this case?

Yes, the pipes stay pressurized for several reasons. Also, the press releases + the simple fact that the pipes emptied themselves through the rupture for a week confirm that.

[birlinn]

there is no "other" party that invaded ukraine.

the only way that the trustworthiness of "other" parties is germane is if the russian invasion is justified by the qualities of other parties.

if you argue that the russian invasion of ukraine was justified because of the lack of trustworthiness of other parties, you are doing putin's work.

if you argue that the russian invasion of ukraine was not justifiable, then the trustworthiness of other parties is not relevant.

Neatly put.
I suspect sandy's reply will not be so straightforward.

[Peerie Maa]

NS1 operated at up to 220bar, 3200psi, with an internal diameter over 1100mm. That's a big steel balloon just waiting to go pop.
NS2 was at about half that pressure at the time.
I'd suggest there was more than enough stored energy there to blow bits of pipeline far and wide, if an explosive started the thing unzipping. This is the aftermath of a steel oxy tank (a mere 2000psi) letting go - it's actually only about 4 hours drive away from home.
Screenshot_20230314_202924_Chrome.jpg

FWIW, the water pressure at 80 metres is less than 1/10th the NS1 operating pressure, so not much help in containing things.

Pete

Just so.
The point that I am making is that the broken end of the pipe is too ragged to have been cut by a shaped charge, as some were suggesting.

[heimfried]

Yes, the pipes stay pressurized for several reasons. Also, the press releases + the simple fact that the pipes emptied themselves through the rupture for a week confirm that.

That's quite clear. What I questioned, was if the "normal operation pressure" would be maintained.

[LeeG]

I am reading that Russia is likely to ramp up attacks before heavier fighting vehicles from the west show up. Is that what’s happening now?

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

I am reading that Russia is likely to ramp up attacks before heavier fighting vehicles from the west show up. Is that what’s happening now?

It looks like it, to me, because I am reading dates of May and June for the delivery of the rather inadequate quantities of new equipment.

[Gerarddm]

Russkies are complaining of a shell shortage. Meanwhile their version of Baghdad Bob is saying that peace negotiations are, for now, off the table.

We'll see if they change their tune after inserting more bodies into the sausage-making machine, but I doubt it. The Ukrainians are going to have to kill them all and Putin needs to go before this war stops.

[Johan R]

News report saying a Russian aircraft has collided with a MQ9 Reaper drone in the Black Sea.

[epoxyboy]

News report saying a Russian aircraft has collided with a MQ9 Reaper drone in the Black Sea.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/14/p...sea/index.html

Is an attack on an unmanned NATO asset in international air space .......?

[johnw]

NS1 operated at up to 220bar, 3200psi, with an internal diameter over 1100mm. That's a big steel balloon just waiting to go pop.
NS2 was at about half that pressure at the time.
I'd suggest there was more than enough stored energy there to blow bits of pipeline far and wide, if an explosive started the thing unzipping. This is the aftermath of a steel oxy tank (a mere 2000psi) letting go - it's actually only about 4 hours drive away from home.
Screenshot_20230314_202924_Chrome.jpg

FWIW, the water pressure at 80 metres is less than 1/10th the NS1 operating pressure, so not much help in containing things.

Pete

Unlike air, water is not compressible. How does that factor in?

[lupussonic]

Unlike air, water is not compressible. How does that factor in?

Although your outboard may not appreciate a lungful, explosives have been proven to kill subs.

It doesn't factor in.

[ERGR]

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/14/p...sea/index.html

Is an attack on an unmanned NATO asset in international air space .......?

Another report United States European Command (eucom.mil).
It seems clear to me that Russia attacked a US asset over international waters, worth a hundred million USD, and caused it to crash. I'm hoping for a restrained and measured respons like only sinking the Russian Black Sea fleet. No need to escalate it further than that.
/Erik

[Nicholas Carey]

Tag! Your it!

This just in from WaPo — seems a Russian warplane was playing chicken with a Reaper drone, dumped fuel on it and hit its prop, causing the operator to dump it into the sea. [Reapers can be armed with AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles. I imagine this was a reconnaissance mission and it was unarmed. Probably just as well.]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...one-black-sea/

Russian jets force down U.S. drone over Black Sea, military says

By Dan Lamothe and Karen DeYoung
Updated March 14, 2023 at 1:54 p.m. EDT|Published March 14, 2023 at 1:27 p.m. EDT

Russian fighter jets intercepted and forced down an American surveillance drone over the Black Sea on Tuesday, U.S. officials said, with one of the warplanes colliding with the unmanned aircraft’s propeller after both jets dumped fuel on it.

The incident, occurring around 7 a.m. local time, prompted Air Force personnel remotely operating the MQ-9 Reaper to bring it down in international waters. U.S. officials characterized the encounter as a “pattern of dangerous actions by Russian pilots” while interacting with American and allied aircraft in international airspace. The high-risk maneuver was “reckless and environmentally unsound,” they said, warning that such provocations could lead to “miscalculation and unintended escalation” between the two powers.

“Our MQ-9 aircraft was conducting routine operations in international airspace when it was intercepted and hit by a Russian aircraft, resulting in a crash and complete loss of the MQ-9,” said Gen. James B. Hecker, a senior military official overseeing Air Force operations in the region. “In fact, this unsafe and unprofessional act by the Russians nearly caused both aircraft to crash.”

It was not immediately clear where over the Black Sea the incident occurred or what mission the drone was conducting. U.S. military officials also did not immediately specify what other recent actions by Russian pilots fit into the pattern of dangerous activity that they described.

White House spokesman John Kirby said that President Biden was briefed about the incident on Tuesday morning by national security adviser Jake Sullivan. While intercepts of aircraft are not uncommon, Kirby said, “this one obviously is noteworthy because of how unsafe [and] indeed reckless that was in causing the downing of one of our aircraft.”

Kirby, asked if U.S. military officials have been in contact with Russia since the incident, referred additional questions to the Pentagon. The State Department intends to reach out and express concerns about the incident with Russian officials, Kirby said.

U.S. and Russian militaries set up years ago a phone line for the “deconfliction” of air operations to avoid collisions and other incidents that could potentially prompt a crisis. Kirby said the Black Sea is “an enormous body of water,” and U.S. aircraft have been flying in international airspace there “consistently” for a year.

“We’re going to continue to do that,” Kirby said. “And we don’t need to have some sort of check-in with the Russians before we fly in international airspace.”

This is a developing story and will be updated.

[George.]

I am reading that Russia is likely to ramp up attacks before heavier fighting vehicles from the west show up.

So they can run out of ammo before the heavies attack?

Russkies are complaining of a shell shortage.

[Johan R]

So they can run out of ammo before the heavies attack?

Not looking likely.

Ukraine short of skilled troops and ammunition as losses and pessimism grow - The Washington Post (archive.is)

[Tom Hunter]

The Timothy Snyder interview made a lot of good points about the Putin regime and it’s objectives and how it maintains internal stability inside the Russian political system. It does explain some of Russia’s behavior in it’s offensive operations.
Putin is the head oligarch. He rewards oligarchs who support him as head, and those who do not or might not fall out of windows. It’s advantageous to Putin that several different militaries (Wagner, SVD and so on) are rivals in Ukraine. Casualties are not important. Action is important, and success is a little bit important but not nearly as important as action.

As long as Putin can maintain control of the various rivals maintaining action everything is good for Putin.
So when Wagner made slow high casualty progress in Bakhmut while the Russian Army lost lots of tanks at Vuhledar this is good for Putin because he can claim credit for the progress and play Wagner off against the army. Putin also wins if Wagner fails at Bakhmut and the army succeeds at Vuhledar because again he can play one off against the other.

Putin has the Army, the Navy, the FSB and Wagner to play with in this game, and some other smaller organizations.
If Russia captures (when? It does look like its going to fall) Bakhmut that is a big win for Putin no matter who does it. Not because Bakhmut is important to winning the war, it’s not. It’s a win for Putin because for months everyone in Russia has been told it’s important, so if it falls then it’s a big win for him even if he loses 25,000 or 50,000 lives in the process.

[johnw]

Although your outboard may not appreciate a lungful, explosives have been proven to kill subs.

It doesn't factor in.

Of course explosives kill subs. You're missing the point.

Not only are vessels affected by shock waves, explosives up against a hull in water has the force directed toward the hull more than if the explosives were against the hull in the air. That's why, in the famous dambusters raid in WW II, the idea was to have the explosives up against the dam and under water. The incompressibility of water directed more of the force at the dam.

The question is, what does the pipeline look like after an underwater explosion? eposxyboy gave us this illustration:



Is that equally likely under water and in the air?

[Tom Hunter]

Now for the tanks and Bradleys

A thing is happening in this war that has not ever happened before at scale (a bit of it happened here and there in World War II). Both sides are getting new equipment but one sides new equipment is less capable and the other sides is more capable. Getting specific Russia is getting more T62s and BTRs, Ukraine is getting Leopards, Challengers, Bradleys, AMX-10s and some other stuff.

The AMX-10 is a French idea that I do not understand. That does not mean it’s a bad idea, it just means it’s a French idea that I never really studied. So I am going to leave it out of the discussion, but if I were a Russian military officer I would be paying attention to it.

The Leopards interest Ukraine because they are good and there are a lot of them. Ukraine needs tanks, they have lost hundreds of them. Even with captured Russian tanks to help they still need a lot of new tanks.
Leopards are superior to T-80s and other Russian tanks. It’s a good tank that can take on superior numbers of Russian tanks and win.

Bradley’s give Ukraine the ability to move forward fast, with infantry and deploy infantry to take out Russian anti tank missile troops (Javelin equivalent) neither army in this war has had this capability so it does mark a major change.

Challenger was designed in the 1980s to fight a huge number of Russian tanks on the North German plain east of Bremen. They are built to fight at 1 to 5 odds and win. 14 of these are going to Ukraine soon, with another 14 coming. The Russians (and the Ukrainians) do not have 70 tanks of any kind in one concentrated force, the war in Ukraine does not work that way.

It’s possible these 14 tanks will be driven into a minefield (or a minefield will be dropped in front of them by Russian artillery. If I were a Russian general this would look really attractive to me) get knocked out and accomplish nothing.
It’s also possible the Ukrainians will put the Challengers one place and the Bradleys some other place and accomplish nothing important.

BTRs and T62s are from the 50s and 60s, Challengers and Bradleys are from the 1980s.

[Tom Hunter]

However it is possible that Ukraine will build a brigade of Challengers and Bradleys and hit a Russian brigade of T62s and BTRs. A T62 has a 115mm gun that cannot penetrate the front armor of a Challenger at normal range. A BTR vs a Bradley is even worse odds.
So there may be a big snafu by Ukraine when this stuff goes into combat. Or there may be a real smash. I’m hoping for the latter, but it will be a huge challenge to Ukrainian logistics.

[Canoez]

Tag! Your it!

This just in from WaPo — seems a Russian warplane was playing chicken with a Reaper drone, dumped fuel on it and hit its prop, causing the operator to dump it into the sea. [Reapers can be armed with AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles. I imagine this was a reconnaissance mission and it was unarmed. Probably just as well.]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...one-black-sea/

Last time UAV's got splashed in the Gulf, they started getting manned escorts flying along. As was noted above, an MQ-9 can carry AIM-9X Sidewinders, so it can defend itself if need be, but I would imaging that the US is sending surveillance aircraft in unarmed to avoid provoking an incident.

It will be interesting to see how this is dealt with. Perhaps better anti-air capabilities for the Ukrainians as a denial of access to the Russians?

[epoxyboy]

Of course explosives kill subs. You're missing the point.

Not only are vessels affected by shock waves, explosives up against a hull in water has the force directed toward the hull more than if the explosives were against the hull in the air. That's why, in the famous dambusters raid in WW II, the idea was to have the explosives up against the dam and under water. The incompressibility of water directed more of the force at the dam.

The question is, what does the pipeline look like after an underwater explosion? eposxyboy gave us this illustration:



Is that equally likely under water and in the air?

The comments I was responding to were to do with how chunks of pipeline got spread far and wide, and the pic is illustrative of how a pressure vessel can fail - it's not neat and tidy.
Take a highly pressurised pipeline, throw some explosives into the mix, shaped charge or otherwise, it doesn't seem unreasonable to me that debris might get spread over a wide area.
That was all.

Pete

[lupussonic]

You are right JohnW, I am missing the point.

The photo above is of an oxygen tank that exploded in a fire, above ground at atmosphere (in air), and does not show the same fracture patterns as a 40mm thick steel pipe fracturing 100 meters underwater. We still have no definitive info on wether NS was even sabotaged from within or from without, at all. Hence my question 100 posts ago if we knew this.

Air has a density of 1.3 KG/M3 at 0C at sea level. Water is 977KG/M3. I am no explosives expert but I would imagine that is almost 1000 times more bang against anything you'd care to blow up, although I stand to be corrected.

You have answered your own question, a smaller comparable charge would be necessary underwater than if the pipeline was in the air. I'm just not clear why you would ask the question.

[johnw]

You are right JohnW, I am missing the point.

The photo above is of an oxygen tank that exploded in a fire, above ground at atmosphere (in air), and does not show the same fracture patterns as a 40mm thick steel pipe fracturing 100 meters underwater. We still have no definitive info on wether NS was even sabotaged from within or from without, at all. Hence my question 100 posts ago if we knew this.

Air has a density of 1.3 KG/M3 at 0C at sea level. Water is 977KG/M3. I am no explosives expert but I would imagine that is almost 1000 times more bang against anything you'd care to blow up, although I stand to be corrected.

You have answered your own question, a smaller comparable charge would be necessary underwater than if the pipeline was in the air. I'm just not clear why you would ask the question.

Thanks for the information. So, a tank that explodes in the air would probably show different damage from an underwater explosion.

[lupussonic]

Thanks for the information. So, a tank that explodes in the air would probably show different damage from an underwater explosion.

There are a lot of differences. Again, I am not an expert, but it stands to reason that pressure within, pressure from without, wall thickness, temperature, mechanism of destruction, all the relevant densities (outside, inside, material interface densities) etc all play their part in what it looks like after a catastrophic event such as several hundred kilos of explosives detonating against it.

The pipeline edge that is left post explosion (not so much the debris field) will tell us all we need to know. Firstly was it blown up from inside or outside (I'm amazed that this info is still not available). If pigs were sent down inside NS armed with explosives they would need to be operational at submersible water pressures and temperatures as the seismic recordings show a delay in time between the bangs. Therefore when the first one went off, the other would be flooded. That is serious motherfunsting pig, and unlike anything I have ever heard of. Although I know nothing for sure it makes much more sense that the charges were laid outside the pipeline, and the scant crappy videos of murky water and bits of twisted metal lean towards this, although they are not conclusive.

Imagine a cigar trick explosive, laid inside the cigar. Forensically, the stub would look mighty different to one that was shot off with a bullet. That may be bad analogy, but you get my jist..

[Peerie Maa]

The comments I was responding to were to do with how chunks of pipeline got spread far and wide, and the pic is illustrative of how a pressure vessel can fail - it's not neat and tidy.
Take a highly pressurised pipeline, throw some explosives into the mix, shaped charge or otherwise, it doesn't seem unreasonable to me that debris might get spread over a wide area.
That was all.

Pete

No, shaped charge is a hacksaw, whereas ''otherwise'' is a sledgehammer. Shaped charges give a clean cut, they are used to sever piles for removal of offshore platforms, where you want a clean cut. If the pipeline was cut rather than smashed, I might expect the ends to shift, but not shatter.

[lupussonic]

Yes ^, a scalpel vs a sledgehammer. It was definitely NOT a shaped charge.

[robm]

Shaped charges can take many shapes....

[epoxyboy]

No, shaped charge is a hacksaw, whereas ''otherwise'' is a sledgehammer. Shaped charges give a clean cut, they are used to sever piles for removal of offshore platforms, where you want a clean cut. If the pipeline was cut rather than smashed, I might expect the ends to shift, but not shatter.

Agreed, but about one thousandth of a second after that nice clean cut ( they may not even span the entire pipeline circumference), gas at up to 3200psi suddenly makes a break for freedom. What does that do? It sure as hell won't be like blowing bubbles out the end of a drinking straw, it likely to be quite destructive in its own right.
Perhaps the analogy would be cutting open an inflated balloon with a scalpel, vs stomping on it?

Pete

[gypsie]

In Le Monde today;

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/internatio...6019335_4.html

US says Russian jet causes American drone to crash over Black Sea

US European Command said two Russian Su-27 fighters intercepted the unmanned MQ-9 Reaper over international waters and one clipped its propeller. "Several times before the collision, the Su-27s dumped fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 in a reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner,"

"Our MQ-9 aircraft was conducting routine operations in international airspace when it was intercepted and hit by a Russian aircraft, resulting in a crash and complete loss of the MQ-9," said US Air Force General James Hecker, commander of US Air Forces Europe and Air Forces Africa.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/russia/art...19342_140.html

'Dear Vladimir Putin': Russian troops call for help from the Ukrainian front

The number of videos showing soldiers questioning the head of the Kremlin is increasing. They complain about being sent to the front without proper equipment and despite promises made before their departure.

Most of them were initially supposed to be integrated into the "territorial defense," i.e. in the rear or in the second line, and were trained accordingly: "We were trained to guard bridges and buildings," said those mobilized from Irkutsk. Others were trained as artillerymen.

Instead, they were mostly drafted into the "DPR army" or the Luhansk army, which is used for the most deadly assaults and whose forces have long been exhausted. Despite the annexation of these territories by Moscow on September 30, 2022, these formations retain a certain autonomy, particularly in legal terms. Military prosecutors respond to the few soldiers who dare to complain that their jurisdiction does not extend to Donetsk and Luhansk.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/russia/art...15623_140.html

Alexei Venediktov: 'Hatred has entered Russian families'

This guy used to run a 'free' radio station called Echo in Moscow. It was shut down on day one of the war - right after he declared, even on that first morning, that Russia had already lost. He keeps a Youtube channel, but I haven't spotted it yet.

Public opinion cannot accept being on the side of the executioners. It's very difficult. I am a historian, I have seen it many times.

If today Putin were to declare: "The war is over, we have won," people would believe him.

How is life in Moscow today? Do you think we're talking about Bakhmut or Izium? No, we only talk about family stories, the son who went to prison, or the grandfather who supports "the special operation". The war has caused a rift in each of them. Eleven million Russian families have direct ties to Ukraine, not just cousins, but grandparents, or very close relatives. And hatred has entered the families. It's tragic.