Ukraine

[Johan R]

Considering the fact that Ukraine's battlefield medicine is significantly better than Russia's, the survival rates of the wounded have to be significantly better as well.

Not in Bakmuht. Wagner are targettng emergency vehicles leaving on the only road out. According to an interview on France24, Ukraine is running out of field doctors.

[heimlaga]

Not in Bakmuht. Wagner are targettng emergency vehicles leaving on the only road out. According to an interview on France24, Ukraine is running out of field doctors.

That is a debated fact. We don't know yet.
Anyway the state of battlefield medicine in the entire Russian army is deplorable according to Russian sources reporting to Meduza. Maybe you should read up a bit on their journalism......or would you be fired from the propaganda office if your boss finds out that you are reading Meduza?

[Johan R]

That is a debated fact. We don't know yet.

Speak for yourself. I saw the words coming from the mouth of a field doctor in Bakmuht. I think he knows more than you do.

[epoxyboy]

Speak for yourself. I saw the words coming from the mouth of a field doctor in Bakmuht. I think he knows more than you do.

How about a link Johan - instead of a snarky response .

Interestingly, but unrelated, Europe is running out of doctors - I found this while trying (and failing) to find any reference to the above.
https://www.politico.eu/article/fran...o-old-too-few/

This article, and several others that I did find, suggests the Ukrainian health system wasn't in great shape to begin with.
[https://blogs.bmj.com/bmjgh/2022/08/...m-in-ukraine/]

[The Ukrainian healthcare system was not exemplary even in peacetime. People suffering from chronic diseases often faced interruptions in the supply of medicines, doctors complained about low salaries, and extortions in hospitals have long ceased to be surprising. The war had every chance of completely destroying the system, but instead it pushed the government and local specialists to find effective solutions, thanks to which medicine in the country not only survived, but also continued to develop.]

Pete

[Johan R]

How about a link Johan - instead of a snarky response .



Pete

Given his incessant desire to lie, snark is all he deserves.

It was a live report about 11am this morning. France 24 often put up videos on youtube of the days news or interviews, you may find it if they have decided to post it.

[JayInOz]

I think Russia is suffering disproportionate casualties in Bakhmut. Ukranians have defensible positions there. I think Ukraine views it as an opportunity to degrade Russian capability in terms of men and materiel.

The Ukrainians also know that if they can hold out, new and better weapons and ammunition from the west should be arriving shortly. The Russians are dusting off tanks built in the nineteen fifties and sending them to the front.

[gypsie]

Bakhmut seems like as good a location as any for attrition warfare.

Thats it hey, the enemy has to be fought somewhere. Fall back and have the same fight in maybe a less advantageous position....
The Russians are up against a couple of rivers now - they have had an atrocious record trying to cross rivers. I wonder do they have any of the right gear left?

It could be a serious upset in their tactics. They've changed, it appears, from their waves of soldiers/prisoners, to fast persistent squad sized incursions that are then backed up by armour. Take out the armour (using a river) and how will the fare?
Creating a bridge head on the far side of even a small river is more difficult than say taking a trench (I imagine from my comfy air conditioned space.)
The Russians seem to learn slowly. They reinvented themselves over the last 6 months in Bahkmut. Do they have to do it again right now? How long and how much cost? Then switch back to what they were doing....?

[sandtown]

Here's a little piece of advice. You diminish your own voice by continuing to post the same stuff on this thread. Folks who get fed up with what you post here will put you on ignore..

Bull Pucky to the max . . .

What is the "same stuff" of which you speak??

In fact, you have zero clue about the range of issues I have raised here.

[gypsie]

Head of military intelligence in Lithuania says the Russians can keep fighting at current intensity for two more years.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ys-2023-03-09/

This would mean a very long war of attrition; not sure Ukraine can sustain it that long.
On the other hand, Russia is funding the war by taking from social programs. How long before the infrastructure in Russia gets so bad the people can't tolerate it? Hospitals, schools, roads...

[johnw]

Head of military intelligence in Lithuania says the Russians can keep fighting at current intensity for two more years.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ys-2023-03-09/

This would mean a very long war of attrition; not sure Ukraine can sustain it that long.
On the other hand, Russia is funding the war by taking from social programs. How long before the infrastructure in Russia gets so bad the people can't tolerate it? Hospitals, schools, roads...

Really, the question is, who can politicly keep fighting for more years. If Russia can get their lend-lease from China, it might be Russia.

[Johan R]

Really, the question is, who can politicly keep fighting for more years. If Russia can get their lend-lease from China, it might be Russia.

Men fight wars. It is a numbers game. Ukraine has already spent almost half of its fighting force according to some reports. Even if Russian losses are at a higher ratio, they still have an excess of bodies.

The question then becomes, whos "volunteers" arrive en-masses to even the numbers? Superior equipment does not guarantee victory; look at Afghanistan.

[skuthorp]

That's how Russia has fought it's wars, just throw bodies at it. Even at 10 to 1 losses they can sustain it…..as long as their own population does as well. Industrially and infrastructure wise maybe not. And even the average Russian is not that ignorant of the rest of the world these days.

[dutchpp]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, March 9.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...t-march-9-2023

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces conducted the largest missile strike across Ukraine of 2023 likely only to advance Russian state propaganda objectives.
• Russian forces likely advanced northwest of Bakhmut amid a likely increased tempo of Russian offensive operations in the area.
• The Wagner Group’s offensive operation in eastern Bakhmut appears to have entered a temporary tactical pause and it remains unclear if Wagner fighters will retain their operational preponderance in future Russian offensives in the city.
• Russian forces may be preparing to resume offensive operations around Vuhledar, although persistent personnel and ammunition issues will likely continue to constrain Russian forces from advancing.
• Internal dynamics within the Russian military may be driving the potential resumption of costly offensives near Vuhledar that offer little prospect of operational benefit.
• Russian authorities are likely formalizing structures to create and coopt volunteer-based military formations under state-owned energy companies in order to distribute accountability, reduce burdens on the national budget, and avoid sanctions.
• The Transnistrian occupation government accused the Ukrainian government of involvement in a claimed terrorist plot, likely as part of the Russian information operations to undermine Ukrainian credibility and destabilize Moldova.
• Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks throughout the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in and around Bakhmut but have not completed a turning movement or enveloped or encircled the city.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the outskirts of Donetsk City and near Vuhledar.
• Russian strikes completely disconnected the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast, from all external power sources for 10 hours.
• Ukrainian officials reported that Russian occupation authorities are preparing for a spring 2023 mobilization wave in occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts that may include male teenagers born in 2006.
• Russian officials and occupation authorities are continuing efforts to integrate occupied territories into the Russian political and bureaucratic systems.

[skuthorp]

Hard times for Ukraine, and a tragic drain on their human and military resources despite all the equipment support. They are fighting a war for the rest of Europe, and as long as Ukraine holds on that will likely continue. But if as has been conjectured Russia can continue for 2 years at least, and if China supplies say, ammunition, then if they don't want a common border with Russia that may not be enough.
The phony war continues for most of the world.

[WszystekPoTrochu]

On the other hand, Russia is funding the war by taking from social programs. How long before the infrastructure in Russia gets so bad the people can't tolerate it? Hospitals, schools, roads...

Historically: almost indefinitely.

[JayInOz]

One report on Youtube tonight stating that Iran is shipping one hundred million rounds of ammunition to Russia. Will make some spectacular explosions when the Ukrainians find out where the Russians store it.

[Edward Pearson]

I'm going to take my hat off to the Eurocrats. The EU's oil price fix was a masterstoke. They've been clever and effective.

He's getting barely more than production cost. Just enough to make him bother. To avoid a price spike, India and China are being our usefull idiots and taking it. By rejigging who gets what around the world to avoid shortages, the general price hasn't risen to us but dropped to him.

Doesn't matter if they ship it back to us, they are also buying at low prices because of their bargaining position.


Putin's economic income has been negative now the last two months, so he's running down the reserves left and selling off his gold. He's slapped some taxes on Russian businesses.

Combined with increased outgoings to pay for a war, industrial restrictions from sanction and loss of many men of working age, Putin has now taken Russia onto it's downward economic trajectory. Once his reserves are drained, he'll be printing money and dealing with inflation.


His action eliminated Russia's main gas market and made oil exports barely profitable. He's now 'losing money' and Russia's men of working age. His army has worsened Russia's reputation with their acts of depravity and uncivilised behaviour. He's got more NATO and a stronger NATO.

The Europeans are now aligned with the USA and UK towards Russia. The gas market won't come back. Europeans are switching to electric cars from diesel and won't need his oil. This isn't a short term problem for Russia while there's a war on. It's their new normal.


The West was and still is revulsed that an Army would cross a border after the wars last century, but it has been a massive unthinkable strategic gain. Faced with Russia and China, the West has now 'picked one off'. Russia is effectively econommically constrained and being conventionally demilitarised. The cost to the USA has been 5% of it's defence budget. Frankly just a few things dusted off from the back of the closet. Mostly equipment that was seen as obsolete. Not a single soldier lost. China's position is weaker, with a weaker Russia. With a direct threat to EU security, I'd expect the EU to slap draconian trade sanctions on China is they arm Russia.

The war in Ukraine is really a distraction now for Putin, the EU has the foot on Russia's neck and will keep it there. He will know he has a losing hand. We won't be buying the gas again and the weaker Russia is kept, the fewer tanks we need to build. Cap in hand to N. Korea, Iran and China, this is now becoming a subservient Russia.

In Ukraine i'm expecting the new armoured divisions with decent tanks and Bradleys, towing a Patriot for air defense, will punch down to Mariopol this summer. Russia will surrender it's army west of Donbas as they'll be cut off when the bridge is destoyed again. If that's a success Luhansk will follow. I think they'll fein one and do the other. If they're successfull, they'll eventually have their country back.

[George Jung]

saw this: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/03...ocket-launcher

can't 'c/p', but looks like the USA is sending new, precision-guided rockets/launchers. As well, more Bradleys, and a variety of other munitions. The US has already provided more than $32 billion, and is committed to continuing the support. Looks like all of NATO is, as well.

[Johan R]

.... the general price hasn't risen to us but dropped to him.

Are you saying fuel and energy prices in the UK have not increased? What i have seen in the media would suggest otherwise for some time.

The Europeans are now aligned with the USA and UK towards Russia.

Up until this week, Poland was still importing Russian oil, it was Russia who turned off the supply when they sent Leopards into Ukraine.

Both Italy , Austria and Hungary still have some reservations; not what i would describe as "aligned".

The gas market won't come back. Europeans are switching to electric cars from diesel and won't need his oil.

Germany used $20 billion worth of Russian gas to turn into $2 trillion worth of manufactured goods. The only thing "not coming back", is the standard of life Europe once had. To believe switching to electric is going to end the problem of oil, is only an obvious indication that you can not see the full extent of the issue.

With a direct threat to EU security, I'd expect the EU to slap draconian trade sanctions on China is they arm Russia.

I often see people who believe the world revolves around them say this. "The West" and the countries in it, are just a small proportion of global trade. Asia will thrive under such circumstances, while Europe declines.

The war in Ukraine is really a distraction now for Putin

We can agree on this at least. He did the wrong thing, and the longer it drags on, the harder it will be for him to exit and save any face he may still have with his own people.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

I'm going to take my hat off to the Eurocrats. The EU's oil price fix was a masterstoke. They've been clever and effective.

He's getting barely more than production cost. Just enough to make him bother. To avoid a price spike, India and China are being our usefull idiots and taking it. By rejigging who gets what around the world to avoid shortages, the general price hasn't risen to us but dropped to him.

Doesn't matter if they ship it back to us, they are also buying at low prices because of their bargaining position.


Putin's economic income has been negative now the last two months, so he's running down the reserves left and selling off his gold. He's slapped some taxes on Russian businesses.

Combined with increased outgoings to pay for a war, industrial restrictions from sanction and loss of many men of working age, Putin has now taken Russia onto it's downward economic trajectory. Once his reserves are drained, he'll be printing money and dealing with inflation.


His action eliminated Russia's main gas market and made oil exports barely profitable. He's now 'losing money' and Russia's men of working age. His army has worsened Russia's reputation with their acts of depravity and uncivilised behaviour. He's got more NATO and a stronger NATO.

The Europeans are now aligned with the USA and UK towards Russia. The gas market won't come back. Europeans are switching to electric cars from diesel and won't need his oil. This isn't a short term problem for Russia while there's a war on. It's their new normal.


The West was and still is revulsed that an Army would cross a border after the wars last century, but it has been a massive unthinkable strategic gain. Faced with Russia and China, the West has now 'picked one off'. Russia is effectively econommically constrained and being conventionally demilitarised. The cost to the USA has been 5% of it's defence budget. Frankly just a few things dusted off from the back of the closet. Mostly equipment that was seen as obsolete. Not a single soldier lost. China's position is weaker, with a weaker Russia. With a direct threat to EU security, I'd expect the EU to slap draconian trade sanctions on China is they arm Russia.

The war in Ukraine is really a distraction now for Putin, the EU has the foot on Russia's neck and will keep it there. He will know he has a losing hand. We won't be buying the gas again and the weaker Russia is kept, the fewer tanks we need to build. Cap in hand to N. Korea, Iran and China, this is now becoming a subservient Russia.

In Ukraine i'm expecting the new armoured divisions with decent tanks and Bradleys, towing a Patriot for air defense, will punch down to Mariopol this summer. Russia will surrender it's army west of Donbas as they'll be cut off when the bridge is destoyed again. If that's a success Luhansk will follow. I think they'll fein one and do the other. If they're successfull, they'll eventually have their country back.

Edward - may I congratulate you on this?

[Gerarddm]

Bakhmut is the new Verdun. The Russkies are the WWI Germans, and the Ukrainians are the WWI French. The Germans thought that they could bleed the French at Verdun since it was such an important city. Instead, THEY were the ones bled to death, and resulted in the removal of the German chief of staff.

Wagner/Russia is bleeding to death at Bakhmut, and it's not even important, strategically.

Still, Putin is obstinate. I still believe the war ends only when he is deposed or dead.

[Edward Pearson]

The packages are what you’d charge Bradleys etc for at full retail I think George to put the wind up Putin. You’ve got 3000 Abrahams doing what exactly?

You’ve already built them and they’re just going dusty. So far the strategic gains or the outlay make Putins missadventure a massive win at little real cost to you. Just saying this isn’t costing you much new money. This stuff is all on a replacement cycle, and you’d have to crush it anyway. What the West has learned of Russisn ineptitude has been priceless. We didn’t think the Russians were this stupid.

Its going to be the EU that reconstructs Ukraine, thats going to cost actual real trillions. Confiscated Russian assets will only cover a fraction of it. But there we are. Ukraine will (have to be) in the EU and it’ll have a hardcore well equipped army. Decades of demining and buried unexploded ordanance ahead. Its agriculture output will make it valuable to the EU as it increases food biosecurity.

Whether post Putin Russia reverts back to nationalism and victim culture propaganda or moves forward we’ll have to see. Putin will drain the Russian national bank account this year. When its gone, it won’t be going back up. The Russian people won’t be so isolated from reality and the West will have less to worry about. He’ll leave the Russian people with a legacy of a destroyed army, dead soldiers and no money. To get sanctions lifted the West, especially countries like Estonia or Poland can name their price. I’d say thats Russia’s bigger problem. They can reverse out of Ukraine but having seen what they’ve done I don’t see how they get out of sanctions. Europe/ nato has its own interests seperate from the outcome of war in Ukraine.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

I’m not going to make any predictions on Bakhmut; we have seen that the Ukrainian General Staff are entirely capable of mounting large scale deception operations, and this might be another. Or not.

But certainly I hope that Ukraine gets all its territory back, joins NATO and joins the EU.

[L.W. Baxter]

i would add to mr. pearson's essay a few notes of humility and gratitude.

humility in recognizing that there was no plan, no strategy. that the whole world stood by wringing our hands in the first weeks after the invasion started. many of us certain of ukraine's defeat. paralyzed by the prospect.

and gratitude for the gift of ukrainian courage and fortitude. they have saved our asses from some terrible possibilities. they deserve better than the western powers crowing about how cheaply "we" have weakened russia.

[Osborne Russell]

Edward Pearson and L.W. Baxter are laying it down for all to see.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

This is a first class interview with Jeffrey Sonnenfeld:

https://youtu.be/QU0resswOds

I have literally just read Edward Luce’s endorsement of what Sonnenfeld says here, in the Financial Times.

Russia is far more broke than we thought it was.

[Johan R]

[QUOTE=Gerarddm;6816737]

Wagner/Russia is bleeding to death at Bakhmut, and it's not even important, strategically.

Wagner is as much "Russia" as Blackwater/Academi is "America".......both disposable assets, a mere aperitif before the main course. Russia can drag this out for another 2 years before any real pain, Ukraine can not without outside man power.

[WszystekPoTrochu]

Orban said the country would have to reconsider relations with Moscow because of "changing geopolitical realities".


"I understand the need to restore Russian-European relations after the war, but this is far from reality. (…) That's why Hungary needs to think hard about what kind of relations we can establish and maintain with Russia in foreign policy and economy in the next 10-15 years"

[johnw]

Orban said the country would have to reconsider relations with Moscow because of "changing geopolitical realities".


"I understand the need to restore Russian-European relations after the war, but this is far from reality. (…) That's why Hungary needs to think hard about what kind of relations we can establish and maintain with Russia in foreign policy and economy in the next 10-15 years"

That would be refreshing.

[heimfried]

Orban said the country would have to reconsider relations with Moscow because of "changing geopolitical realities".

"I understand the need to restore Russian-European relations after the war, but this is far from reality. (…) That's why Hungary needs to think hard about what kind of relations we can establish and maintain with Russia in foreign policy and economy in the next 10-15 years"

If so he can stop Hungary's obstruction of EU sanctions against Russia and no longer be the advocate of Russian interests in Europe.

[JimD]

This is a first class interview with Jeffrey Sonnenfeld:

https://youtu.be/QU0resswOds

Thanks for that

[Nicholas Carey]

Seems we're thinking about it, or at least starting to:

https://www.avweb.com/aviation-news/...or-assessment/

Ukrainian Pilots At Tucson Guard F-16 Wing For ‘Assessment’

By Russ Niles -Published:March 6, 202328

Multiple sources are reporting that two Ukrainian air force pilots are in the U.S. flying F-16 simulators as part of an “assessment” of their skills. The outlets, all quoting unnamed sources, say the two Ukrainians have been at an Air National Guard unit in Tucson, Arizona, for a week and will be there for at least another week. The 162nd Fighter Wing operates 70 F-16s but the pilots will not be going flying. All the assessment is happening on the sims to evaluate their “flying and mission planning capabilities,” according to Politico.

The U.S. has supplied weapons and ad hoc control systems to adapt them to the Soviet-era fighters Ukraine now flies and part of the Tucson effort is to evaluate how that’s working. “The program involves watching how Ukrainian pilots conduct their mission planning and execution in flight simulators in order to determine how we can better advise the Ukrainian Air Force,” a U.S. official who was granted anonymity told Politico. Ukraine has repeatedly asked for western fighters in its constant lobbying of Western countries for military aid in its battle against Russia. The F-16 is the platform of choice but the U.S. has so far denied the request. U.S. officials insist they won’t be sending any F-16s to Ukraine anytime soon.

And from Politico:

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/0...f-16s-00085556

2 Ukrainian pilots are in U.S. to determine fighter jet skills

Yet the U.S. still does not plan to send F-16s to Ukraine, for now.

By LARA SELIGMAN
03/05/2023 01:39 PM EST

“The program involves watching how Ukrainian pilots conduct their mission planning and execution in flight simulators in order to determine how we can better advise the Ukrainian Air Force,” the U.S. official said.

A Defense Department official and another person familiar with the program said the aim is to evaluate how long it will take Ukrainian pilots to learn to fly modern fighter aircraft, including F-16s. The program was supposed to begin late last year, but was delayed, the people said.

The pilots have been at the base for a week and will stay for at least one more week. A Defense Department spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The news, first reported by NBC News, comes as top Biden administration officials repeatedly bat down the idea of sending the jets anytime soon.

“F-16s are a question for a later time,” national security adviser Jake Sullivan said during a recent interview on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “And that’s why President Biden said that, for now, he’s not moving forward with those.”

Biden says U.S. won’t send F-16s to Ukraine

Colin Kahl, the Pentagon’s top policy official, told the House Armed Services Committee last week that the U.S. has not started training Ukrainians on F-16s, and that the timeline for delivering the aircraft is estimated at 18 months.

“Since we haven’t made the decision to provide F-16s and neither have our allies and partners, it doesn’t make sense to start to train them on a system they may never get,” Kahl said.

The decision to bring Ukrainian pilots over to the U.S. for an assessment does not change the thinking on whether to provide F-16s to Kyiv, the U.S. official said.

[sandtown]

"Goupthink" is a good word to keep in mind at times like these . .

https://theintercept.com/2023/03/03/...t%20Newsletter

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Three more minutes of Sonnenfeld:

https://youtu.be/tVSJQ_I93to

This includes some points that get overlooked: Sinopec, Sinochem and ICBC, three of the largest companies in the world, got out of Russia immediately and have stayed out.

[L.W. Baxter]

"Goupthink" is a good word to keep in mind at times like these . .

https://theintercept.com/2023/03/03/...t%20Newsletter

like all your links, arguments built on bald assertions.

from the op-ed:

The idea that Putin could not have foreseen the likelihood of NATO coming to Ukraine’s defense — particularly with Biden, not Donald Trump, in the White House— is ludicrous.

a perfect example of using the ambiance of the moment to judge the past. a year ago, it was not at all ludicrous for putin to think he might take ukraine without nato interference. in fact, there was no immediate military response from nato. and indirect support only began after ukraine demonstrated that their cause was not hopeless. and there is still no direct military action from nato. read the above quote again and think about it.

but, yes, after a year of ukraine fighting admirably in their own defense, and a year of the russians demonstrating weakness in conventional warfare, it is ludicrous to think that nato would now withdraw material support from ukraine.

but that is now. ukraine has changed geopolitics enormously in twelve months. your author, sandy, can't see past the tip of their nose.