Ukraine

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Very interesting post, Tom.

My Army medical officer Cadet son has just got back from a training weekend spent on a beach which belongs to the Royal Marines because all the Army training facilities are full of Ukrainians (which he thinks is as it should be).

[Tom Hunter]

Damn, I was hoping you would argue so this thread would turn into a tank battle.

[skuthorp]

"My guess is they will build a NATO armored brigade……"
The 'proxy war' becoming less proxy by the day………...

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

"My guess is they will build a NATO armored brigade……"
The 'proxy war' becoming less proxy by the day………...

I don’t think so; Tom is referring to the make up of the fighting unit.

[skuthorp]

I was aware of that ACB, nevertheless I dfo think that it's a matter of time, especially if Ukraine uses the new arms effectively and pushes the Russians back again.

[Tom Hunter]

@skuthorp I think it is a real problem, but it is a problem driven by Putins murderous character. If he thinks you are within his power, and you do not do what he wants, he kills you. He thinks the 42 million people in Ukraine are in his power, they do not do what he wants, and he will kill them until they do.

My best guess is that requires the death of about 4 million people, and another 20 million refugees, plus Russia gets all of Ukraine up to the Polish border.

I bet that if Sandtown can persuade Zelesky to agree to these terms the war will end.

Personally I would rather send tanks, even though Putin may decide to kill me, my family, and everyone reading this. Because he may decide to do that even if we let him kill 4 million Ukrainians. In fact, he may be more likely to kill us all if we let him do that, and less likely if we stop him now.

[JayInOz]

And now Putin has accused Ukraine of war crimes for deliberately targeting a hospital. This from the man in charge of the destruction of every hospital and school in Mariupol as some of the earliest targets in that now destroyed city. I will not believe that Ukraine would target a hospital, firstly on humanitarian grounds, but also because they are fully aware that support from the west remains strong while ever they are defending with honour and hold the moral high ground. JayInOz

[sandtown]

I bet that if Sandtown can persuade Zelesky to agree to these terms the war will end. .

Sure, a death struggle - what could possibly go wrong ??

[George Jung]

Putin's MO is quite similar to the Republicans in this country. When either accuses you of some heinous - it's because, that's what they are doing.

[dutchpp]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, January 29.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...anuary-29-2023

Key inflections in ongoing military operations on January 29:

• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensives in the vicinity of Kuzemivka (about 16km northwest of Svatove).[27]
• Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces continued to repel limited Russian counterattacks west and south of Kreminna.[28]
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced that Wagner forces seized Blahodatne (about 12km northeast of Bakhmut) on January 29.[29]
• Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks in the Bakhmut and Donetsk City-Avdiivka areas.[30]
• Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces repelled assaults near Pobieda (4km southeast of Donetsk City) and Vuhledar.[31] Russian sources claimed that fighting is ongoing to the west and east of Vuhledar.[32]
• Russian sources did not report on any Russian ground attacks in Zaporizhia Oblast for the third consecutive day on January 29.[33] Ukrainian forces conducted a HIMARS strike against a bridge in Svitlodolynske (20km northeast of Melitopol).[34]
• Russian forces continued to conduct routine fire against Kherson City and other settlements in the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River.[35] Kherson Oblast Administration Advisor Serhiy Khlan reported that Russian forces used incendiary munitions to fire on Beryslav.[36]
• Russian authorities are continuing to set conditions for a second wave of mobilization. Head of the State Duma Committee on Defense Andrey Kartapolov stated on January 28 that the committee is reviewing over 20 laws regarding mobilization deferrals.[37]
• The Ukrainian General Staff reiterated that it has not observed Russian forces in Belarus forming a strike group as of January 29.[38]

[gypsie]

.... a problem driven by Putins murderous character. If he thinks you are within his power, and you do not do what he wants, he kills you. He thinks the 42 million people in Ukraine are in his power, they do not do what he wants, and he will kill them until they do.

My best guess is that requires the death of about 4 million people, and another 20 million refugees, plus Russia gets all of Ukraine up to the Polish border.

I bet that if Sandtown can persuade Zelesky to agree to these terms the war will end.

Personally I would rather send tanks, even though Putin may decide to kill me, my family, and everyone reading this. Because he may decide to do that even if we let him kill 4 million Ukrainians. In fact, he may be more likely to kill us all if we let him do that, and less likely if we stop him now.

Sure, a death struggle - what could possibly go wrong ??

Sandtown, what does your response mean?

You have said that the war would end if Zelensky agrees to Russia's terms. Tom has quite eloquently laid out what those terms mean.

Maybe explain to us why we underestimate Putins compassion and love for his fellow human beings. Show us where he has demonstrated his cuddly-bear side and hasn't just flattened his opponents as they got weaker.

[WX]

I see one of the Ukrainian body collectors has been killed by a landmine. Their job was to scour battlefields for the dead on both sides.

[skuthorp]

Russians claim that Ukraine has hit a hospital in the occupied territories with Himars……...

[dutchpp]

As promised yesterday the ISW report of the attack on Iranian military production facilities.

January 29, 2023, 3:00 pm ET

The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). To receive Iran Crisis Updates via email, please subscribe here.
CTP is publishing an abbreviated Iran update today, January 29. This update focuses on the reported Israeli drone attack on an Iranian military munitions factory and other recently reported explosions and fires throughout Iran. CTP will resume publishing our regular Iran updates on January 30.
Israel conducted a kamikaze drone attack on a military munitions factory near Esfahan City, Esfahan Province on January 28, according to Western media reports.[1]Israeli agents used at least three explosive-laden quadcopters in the attack, suggesting that they launched the strike from inside Iran rather than a neighboring state because of the range of heavily laden quadcopters.[2] The Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Ministry reportedly uses the targeted facility to produce ballistic missiles and drones.[3] Unidentified sources told Western and Israeli journalists that the strike was ”specific, surgical, and successful” and ”a tremendous success.”[4] The Iranian defense ministry dismissed these reports in a public statement, claiming that Iranian air defenses largely prevented the attack and that the drones caused only minimal damage to the roof of the facility.[5]
Iranian officials have not blamed any specific actor for the drone attack at the time of this writing. They may avoid explicitly blaming Israel or any other actor until they have decided how they will respond. Iranian leaders could order proxy attacks on US positions in Iraq and Syria or into Israel in the coming weeks in retaliation. This attack will also likely further increase Iranian concerns over the alleged presence of Israeli intelligence services in Azerbaijan and Iraqi Kurdistan.
This attack underscores the extent to which Israeli intelligence services have penetrated the Iranian security sphere. This infiltration has become increasingly obvious and ostentatious in recent years. Mossad has likely conducted several high-profile operations in Iran in recent years, including:[6]

• Raiding a covert archive in Tehran and seizing sensitive documents tied to the pre-2003 Iranian nuclear weapons program in January 2018.
• Assassinating senior Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhri Zadeh outside Tehran City in November 2020.
• Sabotaging the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant in July 2020 and again in April 2021.
• Conducting a kamikaze drone attack on a centrifuge manufacturing facility in Karaj in June 2021.

Social media accounts reported additional explosions and fires throughout Iran around the same time as the drone strike, although these events were likely coincidental accidents or misreported. Social media users reported an explosion in Khoy, West Azerbaijan Province and an extensive fire at a motor fuel facility in Azar Shahr, East Azerbaijan Province.[7] Both occurred shortly after a nearby 5.9-magnitude earthquake in northwestern Iran, which very likely caused these events.[8] Social media users also reported Iranian fighter jets flying above Tehran and the sounds of explosions in Karaj, Alborz Province; Dezfoul, Khuzestan Province; and Hamedan City, Hamedan Province in the hours following the drone attack.[9] There is no evidence that any explosions occurred or images of any damage that might have been caused by explosions. These reports more likely suggest that the regime scrambled fighter jets from airfields that are close to these locations in response to the drone strike, and residents misreported the sounds of military aircraft as explosions.

[Nicholas Carey]

Russians claim that Ukraine has hit a hospital in the occupied territories with Himars……...

Apparently the building was studded with comms antennae, and was some sort of military HQ. An RF hotspot.

The military unit's HQ was likely trying to use the hospital as a shield to protect themselves. The fault is on the Russians.

[Johan R]

Apparently the building was studded with comms antennae.....

Take a look at the roof of your local hospital when you next drive by. Perfectly normal for comms antennae to be up there, they need to communicate with ambulances and support workers that are not on-site. No reason or an excuse to hit a hospital.

[skuthorp]

With the advent of AI and the Chat GPT, I wonder if we are just being led along by an early Russian development of a chat bot?
It also seems to have trouble distinguishing between fact and fake…………...

[dutchpp]

There usually are just couple of antenna's to communicate with ambulances and helicopters on the average hospital, all the extra antenna are suspect because we all know it's a standard operation procedure of Russians to use civilians and civilian infrastructure as a shield against attacks.
The reason for hitting a building like that is usually the intense radio communication traffic between commanders and the troops in the field, which can be carefully monitored by the intelligence services. The target selection process for the use of the expensive Himars rockets is well established and I'm pretty sure there was a perfectly good military reason for targeting that specific building.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

There usually are just couple of antenna's to communicate with ambulances and helicopters on the average hospital, all the extra antenna are suspect because we all know it's a standard operation procedure of Russians to use civilians and civilian infrastructure as a shield against attacks.
The reason for hitting a building like that is usually the intense radio communication traffic between commanders and the troops in the field, which can be carefully monitored by the intelligence services. The target selection process for the use of the expensive Himars rockets is well established and I'm pretty sure there was a perfectly good military reason for targeting that specific building.

Just so.

[Canoez]

Hmmm. We’ve had one person here ask another to validate an as yet unsubstantiated claim that they made regarding negotiations. The person making the claim said they had evidence to back that claim - I am assuming links to reputable sources.

Have I missed that reply?

[Peerie Maa]

^ Crickets!

[Johan R]

Just so.

Is there anything you do not pretend to know?

Whipps Cross Hospital, London



Just one example. Must be a military base masking as a hospital.....call in the bombers.

[Canoez]

Is there anything you do not pretend to know?

Whipps Cross Hospital, London



Just one example. Must be a military base masking as a hospital.....call in the bombers.

Frequency matters.

[Peerie Maa]

Is there anything you do not pretend to know?

Whipps Cross Hospital, London



Just one example. Must be a military base masking as a hospital.....call in the bombers.

Those will be cell phone masts. It is common in the UK for schools office blocks, and hospitals to rent roof space out to mobile phone networks.
We know that UKR uses mobile phone chatter to locate Pootins cannon fodder. So they will be well able to intercept and study the traffic from any array of ariels.
Another whataboutism fail.

[dutchpp]

I'm pretty sure this USAF global hawk is screening a couple of hundred or thousand? frequencies at this moment (13.57 UTC+1). In cooperation with his British co-worker operating along the western border of Ukraine they can pinpoint the targets.
Scherm*afbeelding 2023-01-30 om 13.57.37.jpg

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Dear Generalissimo Prizoghin,

Please supply a better class of shill; this one is too silly for the target audience.

[heimlaga]

Maybe the Russcist propaganda is strictly aimed at the select few in the silliest end of the possible audience. Those who oppose all forms of thinking and want to make it a punishable offence because any such behaviour vilolates their own right to remain ignorant.
That is the only target audience I can think of who would swallow that whataboutism.
The problem being that they have become a rather influential group in certain parties and countries.

[sandtown]

Sandtown, what does your response mean?

You have said that the war would end if Zelensky agrees to Russia's terms. .

NO, I did not say or write that . . .

[sandtown]

Chris Hedges weighs in . . .

https://scheerpost.com/2023/01/29/ch...at-went-wrong/

[epoxyboy]

Frequency matters.

As does "before", and "after", aka spot the difference.
There is also the possibility that the Ukrainians made a mistake, but almost zero likelihood that they decided to maliciously take out a hospital for being that.

Pete

[Johan R]

As does "before", and "after", aka spot the difference.
There is also the possibility that the Ukrainians made a mistake, but almost zero likelihood that they decided to maliciously take out a hospital for being that.

Pete

I agree. There has been no non-Russian press in the location by accounts I have read. The claim is was bristling with Antennae is just that, and no evidence before the strike to prove, unless that is in the pipeline.

It could also have been the false flag event that has been mumbled about. The hospital might have been emptied and may have been a military base or a signal station.

The fair question to ask, its Ukrainian territory, would they target a building without first checking what its use is?

[Peerie Maa]

I agree. There has been no non-Russian press in the location by accounts I have read. The claim is was bristling with Antennae is just that, and no evidence before the strike to prove, unless that is in the pipeline.

It could also have been the false flag event that has been mumbled about. The hospital might have been emptied and may have been a military base or a signal station.

The fair question to ask, its Ukrainian territory, would they target a building without first checking what its use is?

They got this right

the apparent failure of the Russian military to guard an occupied vocational school where the purported recruits were gathered

based on mobile phone intercepts. Why doubt that they were right this time?

[Johan R]

They got this right based on mobile phone intercepts. Why doubt that they were right this time?

Maybe because it was a hospital. If it was an empty hospital full of Russian military personnel is one thing. The report that is being told is that 14 staff and patients were killed. That may not be true, or its is yet another unfortunate fog of war incident.

[Peerie Maa]

. . . .

What was the source of the report? C&P it pleases.

[mikefrommontana]

Or that the staff and patients were Russian medical corpsman and soldiers.

Maybe because it was a hospital. If it was an empty hospital full of Russian military personnel is one thing. The report that is being told is that 14 staff and patients were killed. That may not be true, or its is yet another unfortunate fog of war incident.