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Thread: Ukraine

  1. #5041
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by epoxyboy View Post
    Snowden is now a Russian! Will he be conscripted?
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63036991

    Pete
    This is news?
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  2. #5042
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Nord 1 is down now as well. What a coincidence.

  3. #5043
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Patriotic TV presenter says draft officials who call up the wrong people should be shot, or sent to the front in Donbas.

    I wonder if he paused for a moment and understood he'd just dropped an equivalence into the minds of his 'Patriotic' viewers...?
    That'll get them pushing their sons into the army....
    It's all fun and games until Darth Vader comes.

  4. #5044
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Bahkmut, as the Russians (Wagner) inch forward they're putting the conscripts from prisons out in front to soak up ordinance and bullets. Those that survive are surrendering. The UA is being inundated with convicts from Russia. The Russians won't do prisoner swaps for whom they now call deserters.
    It's all fun and games until Darth Vader comes.

  5. #5045
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Looks like the Nordstream pipes have been damaged in parts that run on the seabed in the Baltic sea. Who can benefit?
    Ragnar B.

  6. #5046
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Stefan Korshak’s column in the Kyiv Post:

    https://www.kyivpost.com/russias-war...ody-count.html
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  7. #5047
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by WszystekPoTrochu View Post
    Funny I knew exactly what this troll account would write even before clicking 'post quick reply'

    It takes a lot of ill will to not see the difference between women fleeing from an attacked country and cowards running from conscription .
    It also takes a lot of misplaced ill will to post a childish retort with no basis in fact, and gaslighting.

    No one was talking about woman/children fleeing an attack, you know that, i know that, and so does anyone else who can read.

    If what you wrote concerned woman and children, the why use the words "I feel conflicted"?

    We both know, because what you wrote ,was your concern about draft age men leaving Ukraine en-masse, and you did not like it.

    The hypocrisy i wanted to point out, was that in the case of Ukrainian men fleeing, you felt conflicted, but when the same men of age in Russia attempt to avoid conscription, you call them cowards. Why not be consistent at least?

    By your own tacit admission, your humanity starts and stops with someone's passport. This is the attitude that propogates conflict.

    Naturally, you also knew you would get this in response. Being honest does not cost anything.

  8. #5048
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Vadim 68 View Post
    The hypocrisy i wanted to point out, was that in the case of Ukrainian men fleeing, you felt conflicted, but when the same men of age in Russia attempt to avoid conscription, you call them cowards.
    There is a huge difference between being at home and fearing not waking up in the morning, or having daily air raid alarms over your head, and being at home and supporting the invasion as long as not being personally involved. This is the source of conflicting views: I understand fearing for own and family's life as a civilian in a place that is under live fire, while also not supporting choosing personal short term goals over community's long term well being.

    There is no conflict north of Ukraine. Current wave of migration is not fueled by anything else than fear of being personally involved into a losing war. A majority of them has no family or just leaves them behind now. They were okay with murder, rape and pillage. They were okay with their neighbours arrested over protesting the murder, rape and pillage. They were okay with, if not cheering for, "Europe freezing to death" - as long as they were not personally getting any negative consequences other than lack of overly priced big macs. I am closely working with a Belarussian that left his home country this spring, I would not call him a coward - he left everything behind when it was clear that Belarus is not going to get involved in predictable future, when it was far from clear if Kyiv is going to survive at all. Current wave of cowards ranges from staying silent up to actively supporting the war. All that matters to them is if they'll be personally affected or not.

    cower /ˈkaʊə/
    verb
    crouch down in fear.

    That's exactly what the silent ones tolerating all the atrocities did. That's what those who supported the war only as long as they could it from the distance of own dachas do. Compare that to the women in Iran that only needed to keep their hair covered to get off target, yet decided to literally risk their lives struggling for not having to 'just cover their hair'. Compare that to virtually anything. Just stop with 'gaslighting', you're either unfamiliar with the meaning or deliberately misusing it. My bet is on the latter.



    Quote Originally Posted by Vadim 68 View Post
    Naturally, you also knew you would get this in response.
    No, I did expect to have to mention the remark on Ukrainians fleeing myself.
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  9. #5049
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by bluedog225 View Post
    Nord 1 is down now as well. What a coincidence.
    Once Is Chance, Twice is Coincidence, Third Time Is A Pattern

    One pipe of NS2 leaks, both lines of NS1 do. This is very interesting, there's no single cui bono? to point to. My first take was that someone - probably someone with large gas reserves and huge military spending - tries to increase gas prices, which have significantly dropped. Damages to the main means of actually exporting that expensive gas make the first suspicion not hold at all.

    Pressure drop from 105 to 7 bar is a nice way of saying it dropped all the way down to sea bottom level of hydrostatic pressure, in other words there's a possible total pressure loss. There are literal pipeline experts on this forum - should we expect saltwater inside the pipes?
    Last edited by WszystekPoTrochu; 09-27-2022 at 07:12 AM.
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  10. #5050
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    There is a picture in the German news of one of the leaks ...gasblase-nord-stream-101~_v-videowebm.jpg

    The news says the leaks are near Bornholm, a Danish island south of Sweden. I guess the shore you see in the background is possibly Bornholm. Anyway - keep away with a boat. Water with a lot of gas in it does not support a boat as the density is far lower than pure water. And there is an increased local risk of explosion as long as gas comes up.
    Last edited by Henning 4148; 09-27-2022 at 10:17 AM.

  11. #5051
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Information from persons who have access to data from seismic detectors is that there were three explosions near the bottom where the pipelines are. This indicates that the pipelines were deliberately sabotaged, the question is by whom. NATO and Swedish intelligence communities probably have a good idea but are unlikely to follow a like to know strategy and inform us. Internet blogs are not the most reliable sources, and I don't know how to confirm it.
    /Erik

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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Blasts recorded near both pipelines
    A number of unidentified drones appeared near Norwegian oil rigs

    I used to repeat that Muscovites are evil, but not mad. If they are the ones behind what could be then interpreted as a last ditch effort to have Europe succumb to the energy crisis this winter, I may have underestimated the levels of self harm they are willing to reach. If it's an another party, who?
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  13. #5053
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    One of the involved Swedish scientists, Björn Lund, confirms that their seismic detection has picked up the detonations and that there's no doubt that they are detonations. Apparently, it's been picked up in Denmark as well.
    /Erik

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    Default Re: Ukraine

    I was wondering about saltwater incursion into the pipes as well. I’d be interested in how these are laid and cleared. And if sea water inside is an issue or no big deal.

    It doesn’t make sense to me that Russia would do it. I can see the incentive for someone who wants to strengthen German resolve. And it would need a pretty sophisticated actor to get down there and plant the explosive.

  15. #5055
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by WszystekPoTrochu View Post
    Blasts recorded near both pipelines
    A number of unidentified drones appeared near Norwegian oil rigs

    I used to repeat that Muscovites are evil, but not mad. If they are the ones behind what could be then interpreted as a last ditch effort to have Europe succumb to the energy crisis this winter, I may have underestimated the levels of self harm they are willing to reach. If it's an another party, who?
    The usual - follow the money. Who stands to benefit financially and/or politically if Russian energy cannot reach Europe, an if Norway's oil cannot reach customers.

    You may be looking at two different actors with differing goals in, or one actor who is looking to starve Europe of energy as a pressure tactic.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
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  16. #5056
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Biden was pretty clear about Nord Stream 2. “We will bring an end to it.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OS4O8rGRLf8


  17. #5057
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Dog,

    What are you suggesting?

    Or are you just being silly?

    Any suggestion that the USA have anything to do with damage to the pipelines is tinfoil hat assinine.
    Skip

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  18. #5058
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by bluedog225 View Post
    I was wondering about saltwater incursion into the pipes as well. I’d be interested in how these are laid and cleared. And if sea water inside is an issue or no big deal.
    When they are repaired, pigs will be pumped through, possibly with a slug of chemicals between them to negate the effects of salt water if required.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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  19. #5059
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by bluedog225 View Post
    I was wondering about saltwater incursion into the pipes as well. I’d be interested in how these are laid and cleared. And if sea water inside is an issue or no big deal.

    It doesn’t make sense to me that Russia would do it. I can see the incentive for someone who wants to strengthen German resolve. And it would need a pretty sophisticated actor to get down there and plant the explosive.
    Subsea pipelines can be fixed, have no doubt, but all parties involved must cooperate.

    It doesn't make much sense to me right now. Neither were operating as far as I know, although filled with gas they were not flowing. It is hard to see who benefits from this. What does Russia have to benefit from blowing up non-operating infrastructure that it could stand to benefit from in the future? Blowing up a pipeline 100 meters (300 feet) below sea level is not easy. Divers can do it but there are not many sat divers with explosive experience. I would say definitely military, in all likelyhood sub sea drones.

    It does come at an auspicious time; the Danish Baltic pipeline recently opened and this may be Vlads message that he can disrupt EU energy at will and cause extra mayhem and suffering this winter.. which means he can cause mayhem for elected EU politicians who can get voted out as businesses collapse and people freeze.

  20. #5060
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by SKIP KILPATRICK;[URL="tel:6732136"
    6732136[/URL]]Dog,

    What are you suggesting?

    Or are you just being silly?

    Any suggestion that the USA have anything to do with damage to the pipelines is tinfoil hat assinine.
    Did you listen to the president’s statement?

    If they invade, we will end the pipeline.

    Utterly unambiguous.

    They invaded. The pipeline is out of commission. Exactly as President Biden stated.

    How is this being silly?

  21. #5061
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by bluedog225 View Post

    How is this being silly?
    Because you can not differentiate between a commercial shut down and a sub sea explosion.

  22. #5062
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Skip to 1:26. “There will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.”

    How will you do that since it under german control? “I promise you; we will be able to do it.”

    You mention assinine (sic). Seems uncalled for.

    Reading into Biden’s words “commercial shutdown” is fantasy.

  23. #5063
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    So who blew up the pipeline and why?
    It doesn’t make sense to me that Russia would do it.
    This isn't a valid argument any longer. We'll just have to wait and see.

    The war in Ukraine goes on while were speculating about our new Baltic bubble bath. Russian losses seem to be about 500 soldiers per day and a corresponding number of heavy equipment. Tom Cooper once again has written an interesting piece about part of the Kharkiv offensive.
    Ukraine War, 27 September 2022. Still short on time, thus here another… | by Tom Cooper | Sep, 2022 | Medium
    The gist is that Ukraine is stressing Russia everywhere and liberating village after village, often the village beyond the one where the heavy fighting is. The Russians are encircled in some places and rush fresh soldiers into battle which gets them killed, plus those who're killed even before arriving to the front. The sensible action for the Russians would be to retreat and regroup where they can put up a fight from better prepared positions with more secure logistics, but apparently Putin's order is to stay put.
    /Erik

  24. #5064
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by bluedog225 View Post
    Skip to 1:26. “There will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.”

    How will you do that since it under german control? “I promise you; we will be able to do it.”

    You mention assinine (sic). Seems uncalled for.

    Reading into Biden’s words “commercial shutdown” is fantasy.
    isn't it something, to have a president whose words you take seriously. who speaks words that one can parse for actual meaning. who makes statements that one suspects might even be true, or become realized.

    in this case, you may be parsing a little hard though.

  25. #5065
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Other than driving a huge wedge to cut the NATO alliance irreparably! What would be Biden’s motive?
    Skip

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    Default Re: Ukraine

    I remember Biden making that speech. I considered that all that would happen is the pipelien be shut down by turning valves, ending contracts and so forth. And that it could be easily restarted at a future date.

    Now it looks like Russia has lost it's gas leverage.

    My dad told me a story once about Guantanamo bay in Cuba getting its water supply from Cuba itself. Cuba kept threatening to cut the water off. Finally the CO of Guantanamo bay got so fed up with the threats that he took an axe and chopped the pipeline in half. The US soon brought in a water plant to supply their own water.
    Will

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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Biden said we would do it if they invaded. They invaded. There is value in that. And it lets russia, and germany, know that we are serious about stopping the genocide. Perhaps more importantly, the US resolve in this area deters the use of nuclear weapons. A hole in the pipe can be fixed. I suspect US Navy is capable of making the entire thing unusable. And it lends credibility to the idea that we would sink the black sea fleet if nukes were used.
    Last edited by bluedog225; 09-27-2022 at 03:42 PM.

  28. #5068
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    It's Vlad message to the world, we can screw up your energy and data supplies.
    I think Vlad is getting a message as well, probably in the next few days.
    Last edited by dutchpp; 09-27-2022 at 03:07 PM.

  29. #5069
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Though I think what Tom (bluedog225) is asserting is unlikely anyone who says it is impossible either knows who did blow up the pipeline or is just shouting an opinion. The US, Russia, Sweden and the UK all have the capability to blow it up. Ukraine would like to, because when the war is over they will get gas transit fees if the Nordstreams don't exist any more.

    In an interesting way it's Zelensky kicking Schroder.

    There are other gas exporting countries that benefit from this as well.

    Does anyone know if these pipelines can fail catastrophically like Deep Water Horizon? Or do they only fail slowly?

    From a strategy point of view there are some good reasons for the US to do this but its very high risk. If we did do it the world will know (it will leak) in less than a year.

    ERGR I notice a days long gap in your posting, what were you up to these last few hours?
    Yachting, the only sport where you get to be a mechanic, electrician, plumber and carpenter

  30. #5070
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    ERGR I notice a days long gap in your posting, what were you up to these last few hours?
    This time I was visiting my mother in southern Lapland, about 800 km north. I more or less disconnected from the rest of the world. She lives on the old "family homestead", about 6 sqkm of land around a lake on one of our major rivers. It's a remote place and we needed to make it ready for the winter.
    Other times I simply have nothing to contribute.
    /Erik

  31. #5071
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    I reckon youve got hold of the wrong end of this bluedog. Just because it doesn't make sense doesn't mean that Putin hasn't had a fit of pique. That corner I talked of is just over Vlad's shoulder.

  32. #5072
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Hunter View Post

    Does anyone know if these pipelines can fail catastrophically like Deep Water Horizon? Or do they only fail slowly?
    The experts will be able to distinguish a mechanical failure from an explosion (detention). I remember the amount of detail that the sound guys got out of the Kursk explosion.
    Quote Originally Posted by ERGR View Post
    One of the involved Swedish scientists, Björn Lund, confirms that their seismic detection has picked up the detonations and that there's no doubt that they are detonations. Apparently, it's been picked up in Denmark as well.
    /Erik
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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  33. #5073
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    There have been massive explosions registered by seismographs. Scientists agree that something has exploded on or close to the seafloor. Three separate explosions each in the magnitude of well over 100 kilos of dynamite. Under some 70 metres of water.

    There is only one sensible conclusion:
    Someone with the sort of resources that only a state with a navy can muster wanted those pipelines blown up.

    Then we can all ponder about and come up with theories about who "someone" is.
    Personally I rekon Vladimir Vladimirovith Putin as prime suspect.

    The things that are going on now are a lot dirtier than you who live overseas can ever imagine.
    In all likelyhood there is much more to come.

    Please keep up the help to Ukraine. You help defend Finland by helping defend Ukraine.
    Amateur living on the western coast of Finland

  34. #5074
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    So Erik, is "visiting my mother in Lapland" code for visiting an undersea pipeline?

    I'm trying to join the conspiracy theorists.
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  35. #5075
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    NS1 and NS2 were filled with around 100 BarG of gas, that's not explosion level at all. The wall thickness plus water pressure could withstand thousands. Also, NS1 was built in 2011, NS2; 2 years ago, they are new. They did not corrode, they have no gizmos, shut-down valves, surge arrestors etc. They are just tubes in the sea.

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