Ukraine

[Garret]

Au contraire mon ami, the so-called grown ups get it wrong regularly.

I think we should leave it up to psychiatric nurses.

Do you know any psych nurses? I do & no way would I want them doing foreign policy.

Of course, a whole lotta politicians aren't very good at it either.

[WszystekPoTrochu]

You may know it, or you may not, but your use of the term "orcs" for Russian people is exactly the kind of dehumanization of the "other" that makes war possible.
(...)
Please think about what you are doing, and where it leads.

I've been using 'orcs' jokingly for the least pleasant of my neighbours for at least 10 years now, note that since the war broke out I'm using it in military but not civilian context - exactly because I do see it as potentially dehumanizing, I refrain from using it for russian civilians. Orcs are brutal, dumb, destructive cleptomaniacs - that perfectly characterizes your average russian army conscript since at least 105 years. If you've read books or paid attention watching the movies, you know that they were once like us, but got corrupt by evil.

Your accusations are dehumanisation miss one detail: dehumanisation makes the aggression possible. Like Nazis did against basically everyone, like russians did against 'khokhols' (Ukrainians). I won't deny that calling the aggressor names might be dehumanizing, but be assured that it is not my intent. What's even more important, calling anyone 'orcs' would only enable war if Ukraine attacked Russia. It just so happens it's not the case.
I'm also not calling the russian teenager that ended up in principal's office with his mother literally justifying his aggressive behaviour with the need of finding his place in school an orcish cub, even when his life dream is to study physics and then return to the motherland and join the army. Because, even if he's already a stupid aggressive piece of sh.t, he's an underage civilian that will only know better if somebody shows him better, that we still have hope for, that is not an active part of the conflict.

You know what else name calling does? Releases tension. Increases morale. Neither I nor any Ukrainian started this war, it's not the Ukrainian side that murders civilians, razes cities, steals cultural heritage, denies statehood and nationhood. Ukrainians calling the opponent ruscists or orcs still refrain from torture. They do see the humanity in their enemy. Orcs don't.

Excuse me, but I'll allow myself to keep jokingly calling the armymen of a neototalitarian postsoviet brutal kleptocracy orcs from time to time. You'll just have to trust me there's no hatred against a real human being behind it.

[Jim Mahan]

Even considering that the Russian citizens are being propagandized and perhaps don't know any better—well said, and Putin and his orcs be damned.

I wish I didn't feel so helpless to help stop it all. There must be a word for the mix of rage and sorrow I feel, seeing the news and the photos and footage on my TV.

[sandtown]

Do you know any psych nurses? .

Well, the only Congressperson to vote against the Forever Wars in 2001 was a psych nurse.

She noted that in school she had learned to advise people not to make important decisions right after a traumatic experience.

Her name is Barbara Lee.

And my dear ol' Mum was also a psych nurse.

[sandtown]

Yeah, the US troops in Vietnam also thought it was funny to refer to the VC, as slopes, gooks, ZIPs and etc.

but then they began to apply those labels to ALL Vietnamese - with the predictable consequences of mass racist violence.

So there must be lots of USean orcs too.

[johnw]

You may know it, or you may not, but your use of the term "orcs" for Russian people is

exactly the kind of dehumanization of the "other" that makes war possible.

I saw that play out in Vietnam as a young trooper - a whole lot of USAean soldiers really believed that the Vietnamese were less than human.

Please think about what you are doing, and where it leads.

That's true. As a teenager living on Okinawa and spending a lot of time around GIs during the war, I certainly remember liberal use of the g-word. I found it repellant. In fact, it soured me on the idea of following my father into the military. (My dad would fly as a Sanboard examiner for a month on Okinawa, then missions in Vietnam for a month.)

Calling the Russian soldiers orcs is much more playful, an odd juxtaposition given the violence of the war. And, because Russians and Ukrainians are racially indistinguishable, there is not the racial animus of the g-word. It's more like the WW I lingo of Tommies and Jerries. When the Brits wanted to dehumanize the Germans, they called them Huns, and there was certainly plenty of dehumanizing propaganda.

While the term 'orc' is an ancient one, it comes to popular culture through The Lord of the Rings, and the big problem with that book was that it assumed the existence of evil races. However, I have only heard the term 'orcs' applied to enemy soldiers, not to civilians, whereas the g-word was applied to all Asians and was definitely racist.

[sandtown]

\ . . the big problem with that book was that it assumed the existence of evil races. However, I have only heard the term 'orcs' applied to enemy soldiers, not to civilians, whereas the g-word was applied to all Asians and was definitely racist.

Those who commit war crimes need to be fully prosecuted, and calling them nasty names is OK,

but to think that ALL soldiers on the other side are sub-human ??

Nope

[ERGR]

The root problem is that the invading Russian soldiers have committed and continue to commit war crimes. Behaving like orcs in other words. That people call them orcs is just a consequence of minor importance.
/Erik

[WszystekPoTrochu]

Those who commit war crimes need to be fully prosecuted, and calling them nasty names is OK,

but to think that ALL soldiers on the other side are sub-human ??

Nope

I'll protest.
Not a single soldier, even the worst POS, is sub-human. I may be more humane, but not more human than an orc pulling out teeth with pliers for his amusement.

Unless somebody built a fully autonomous weaponized robot, which I hope is still part of future dystopia.

[nick.kohl]

Pray for Ukraine.
If you don't support the war on terror, you're supporting the terrorists.
Everyone is exhausted and here is a good article on how to cope

[Hugh MacD]

And if Ukraine falls, pray for Europe because China is watching very closely.

[WX]

Australian PM visits Ukraine.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-...edia/101205090

Ukraine's ambassador to Australia, Vasyl Myroschnychenko, travelled to Kyiv for the visit, which he agitated for behind the scenes after delivering an official invitation from Mr Zelenskyy.
At first, Australian Foreign Affairs officials pronounced the trip "impossible".
But within weeks, plans were underway to make it happen.
An advance security team comprising 2nd Commando and Special Air Service Regiment personnel were deployed to the country to work with the Ukraine Defence Force and the Australian embassy — now based temporarily in Poland — to make the visit happen.
A member of the team said the capital was mostly safe.

[Garret]

Well, the only Congressperson to vote against the Forever Wars in 2001 was a psych nurse.

She noted that in school she had learned to advise people not to make important decisions right after a traumatic experience.

Her name is Barbara Lee.

And my dear ol' Mum was also a psych nurse.

Fair 'nuf.

[Gerarddm]

Another Ukraininan city in Luhansk falls. The Soviets are relying on their penchant for Verdun-like artillery progress. It is problematic how long they can keep it up. I read somewhere that the long range arty and MLRS from the West will be fully deployed in August, so we shall see what happens then. Until then, Slavi Ukraini!

[Osborne Russell]

In Vietnam the US artilleyed the S out of everything. And? What was accomplished?

[Landrith]

In Vietnam the US artilleyed the S out of everything. And? What was accomplished?

A retired Green Beret Lt. Colonel professor of mine was a good friend of General Westmoreland and had him come out and give a talk at our small Midwestern, working class Socialist university after the 60 Minutes hit piece. At a small cafe for lunch with the Colonel, not the General, I basically answered that question and everyone in the whole cafe got suddenly quiet.

I too loudly stated that during the height of the Vietnam War, 20% of all the industrial production in Kansas was for the war, including every last napalm bomb body proudly made in East Wichita at the Beech Aircraft factory where they were called "drop tanks" not to upset the religious values of some of the workers...

[Nicholas Carey]

In Vietnam the US artilleyed the S out of everything. And? What was accomplished?

You should read this book, [I]On Strategy: a Critical Analysis of the Vietnam War.

https://www.commentary.org/articles/...-g-summers-jr/

The author, Colonel Harry Summers was no slouch, and his book was fundamentally the US Army War College's post-Mortem of the Vietnam War.

http://www.clausewitz.com/readings/SummersObitText.htm

But before that you should read, Baron von Clausewitz's 1832 critical analysis of Napoleon, On War.

One of Clausewitz's observations was that war is politics via force: it serves a political end.

We blew up pretty much everything of interest in Vietnam. Multiple times. And we won pretty near every battle. And lost the war, because we had no real strategy - what was the political goal we were trying to achieve?

Ukraine is Putin's war, not Russia's - he wants Ukraine as a part of his desire to re-create the Soviet/Russian empire. It is not a goal of the Russian people.

Ukraine has a very clear political objective with respect to this conflict, and it is existential.

For the west, while it might not be immediately an existential crisis, it is clear that Ukraine is the kickoff to something much bigger and more destabilizing. Hence the unity of purpose in supporting Ukraine.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

https://medium.com/@Stefan.Korshak/j...d-624c042bf510

[WszystekPoTrochu]

https://medium.com/@Stefan.Korshak/j...d-624c042bf510

I was waiting for this.

Defense in depth is a great thing, but, at some point you have to stop the enemy. The UAF has done this in most sectors, but the loss of Lysychansk makes clear they haven’t managed it in Donbass. Clearly, the UAF bet is that the Russians will run out of steam. Just as clearly, so far, that bet has not paid off.

It is worth noting though that taking Lysychansk took three months. It's an ever bigger effort for ever smaller gains. Given the trend, the Ukrainian promise to start counteroffensive in August may actually be credible.

[Jim Mahan]

Please please please bomb Putin's house. His yacht, his kid's school, the hospital and hotels in his neighborhood and everything that looks like it's near a military target. And then go back and bomb it all again.

In my mind I'm killing him with a potato masher. A dull potato masher.

Maybe start having trials in absentia, and put on parades and mock funerals for him. Every week. Us AI to put his face on every porn video of someone having sex with a pig. Make new ones. Put help wanted ads in every Russian newspaper, if they still have such things there, and announce lucrative hiring bonuses for pigs.

Fill a billion mylar balloons with hydrogen, float them over territory the prevailing weather of which will float them over Russia, over Moscow, and have them carry anti-Putin anti-war messages on thumb drives with offers of lucrative incentives for denouncing his war crimes. Include a device that leaks the hydrogen slowly so the balloons will eventually fall to the ground, or blow up at some altitude, why it's hydrogen and not helium. Use the drone ops that we saw on our Fourth of July non-fireworks shows, to float anti-Putin messages where the Russian people can see them. Make them show up on broadcast news.

[George.]

It is worth noting though that taking Lysychansk took three months. It's an ever bigger effort for ever smaller gains.

And that Lysychansk was the very tip of a deep salient, surrounded on three sides by consolidated Russian positions with easy logistics. Strategically it was a waste of troops and ammo for Russia. A couple of more such "victories" and Pyrrhus may have to go home.

[johnw]

I was waiting for this.


It is worth noting though that taking Lysychansk took three months. It's an ever bigger effort for ever smaller gains. Given the trend, the Ukrainian promise to start counteroffensive in August may actually be credible.

It seems like the Ukrainian government was preparing people for the fall of the last major cities in Luhansk about a week into the battle. I'm amazed it took so long. The question is, how long can the Russians keep up these intense artillery bombardments? They've been expending about 10 shells for every one that gets lobbed back. Is this sustainable?

[ERGR]

They've been expending about 10 shells for every one that gets lobbed back. Is this sustainable?

The only really sustainable ammunition expenditure is the production rate. The speculation is that our sanctions hurt the Russian industry severely, which would lower their production rate.
Ukraine is receiving an increasing number of 155 mm artillery pieces, for which I would expect the West is set up to mass produce ammunition. The smart move would have been to order more 155 mm ammo from the industry at the same time as deciding to supply Ukraine with artillery in that calibre. It's also prudent to keep such decisions secret, so maybe that's what happened.
Not spending to keep Ukraine from losing will be more costly in the long run since we would have to spend to counter an ever more aggressive Russia.
/Erik

[JayInOz]

Ukraine have hit a couple of big Russian ammo dumps in the past couple of days- one was enormous as were the explosions and subsequent fire. That must surely make a dent in their dwindling supplies. And someone must be feeding the coordinates of the stockpiles to the Ukrainian gunners- these are precision strikes. JayInOz

[johnw]

Ukraine have hit a couple of big Russian ammo dumps in the past couple of days- one was enormous as were the explosions and subsequent fire. That must surely make a dent in their dwindling supplies. And someone must be feeding the coordinates of the stockpiles to the Ukrainian gunners- these are precision strikes. JayInOz

They're putting some of those long-range weapons they got to good use.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

https://medium.com/@Stefan.Korshak/j...g-4fbeb1543108

[johnw]

Looks like the DPR is now seizing foreign ships.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Looks like the DPR is now seizing foreign ships.

That’s a great way to encourage other nations to allow their ships to visit your ports and carry your goods.

[Osborne Russell]

Russia can alway surrender unconditionally. Whatever they may do shall be judged with that in mind.

[johnw]

Russia can alway surrender unconditionally. Whatever they may do shall be judged with that in mind.

Or, they could just to home and say no more about it.

[CWSmith]

It is worth noting though that taking Lysychansk took three months. It's an ever bigger effort for ever smaller gains. Given the trend, the Ukrainian promise to start counteroffensive in August may actually be credible.

I like this way of thinking about it. I was very concerned that the war was turning in Russia's favor, but this makes sense.

[JayInOz]

The sanctions are expected to really begin to cripple Russia from about August on. That is, about the same time that Ukraine will have the armaments it has requested, the trained soldiers to use them, and their big counter offensive organised. If the world keeps supporting Ukraine then Russian cannot win. But a lot more innocents are going to die before it's over. JayInOz

[WszystekPoTrochu]

Putin said that "Russia has not yet started anything seriously in Ukraine".
"Today we hear that they want to defeat us on the battlefield, well, what can I say, let them try. We haven't really started anything yet".


at the same time, German left argues about whether they should start using Nord Stream 2...

[johnw]

at the same time, German left argues about whether they should start using Nord Stream 2...

Because financing fascists is what the German left is all about? Weird.

[lupussonic]

at the same time, German left argues about whether they should start using Nord Stream 2...

I am directly involved in German (and therefore EU) gas alternatives from Russian sources. Germany had plans for a hydrogen economy scheduled to come onstream around 2029; those plans have now been brought forward to coming onstream next year. There are also diversion pipelines being built to connect to Scandinavian sources that are being fast tracked. I work in Non-destructive testing, basically ultrasonic and radiographic imaging of metals, particularly welding and I am a specialist in pipeline welds, so I am hooked into the information stream of the industry. The Germans were caught with their pants down while guzzling Russian gas it is true, but they are not pissing around now, believe me. The NDT for a particular project was recently awarded the exact same day that the government officially approved the project, something completely unheard of in the history of pipelines. Ever. They are also technically breaking their own labour laws by insisting on a 6 day week, every week.

I follow German politics as far as I am able to understand them, but a few ministers contemplating using NS2 does not mean they will do it.

but..

...winter is coming, as always (like with covid) it is a balance between crashing your economy (when you will not be able to help anyone), and running as fast as you can to do the right thing, to fix what needs to be fixed. Germans have taken in and housed a huge amount of Ukrainian refugees, some of whom I have met near me. I realise given your nationality the sensitivities involved, but lets not be too quick to bash Germans eh?

Martin.