Ukraine

[johnw]

I did, and no one can explain why the second bomb was dropped only 3 days after the first. Not enough time for the Japanese government to even understand what happened, let alone surrender. The invasion of Japan was slated for November, so no rush there.

The only two plausible theories:

- the US wanted to test a plutonium gadget on an urban area.

- the USSR had just invaded Manchukuo and the US wanted Japan to surrender ASAP so as to not have to share the occupation like in Germany.

This is simply not true. The second bomb was dropped soon after the first to give the impression that we had plenty where that came from. In a bit of serendipity, a bomber pilot shot down over Japan was coerced into 'confessing' that America had 100 bombs and was producing more at a healthy pace. Had Japanese intelligence not threatened the pilot with death if he did not reveal how many bombs America had and how many it was producing, he would have continued to tell them truthfully that he did not posses any knowledge on these lines.

Instead, the deliberations about surrender were made with Japanese intelligence assuring the bigwigs that America had a formidable and growing arsenal of nukes. The American bluff worked better than anticipated.

All that information was in the thread you participated in, yet new information did not change your views. You also do not seem to recall that the Japanese had withdrawn all the regular army units from Manchuria to defend the home island, leaving a few colonial conscripts commanded by some of the less fortunate Japanese officers to defend Manchuria. If the opposing army leaves, yes, you can take a lot of territory quickly.

[WX]

Actual meaning is "to wreak havoc".

Pogrom came into frequent use as a term around 1881 after anti-Semitic violence erupted following the assassination of Czar Alexander II.
Anti-Jewish groups claimed the government had approved reprisals against Jews. The first violence broke out in Yelizavetgrad, Ukraine, and then spread to 30 other towns, including Kiev.

https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/conte...aust-survivors

On July 1, 1946, a nine-year-old non-Jewish boy, Henryk Blaszczyk, left his home in Kielce, without informing his parents. When he returned on July 3, the boy told his parents and the police, in an effort to avoid punishment for wandering off, that he had been kidnapped and hidden in the basement of the local Jewish Committee building on 7 Planty Street. The Committee building sheltered up to 180 Jews, and housed various Jewish institutions operating in Kielce at the time. The local police went to investigate the alleged crime in the building, and even though Henryk's story began to unravel (the building, for example, had no basement), a large crowd of angry Poles, including one thousand workers from the Ludwikow steel mill, gathered outside the building.

In September and October 1946, Polish authorities in Kielce indicted civilians, soldiers and police officers for their participation in the pogrom View This Term in the Glossary and complicity in the killings. Among the defendants were the commander of the Kielce Office of the Security Service, Major Wladyslaw Sobczynski, and the Chief of Police, Colonel Wiktor Kuznicki, as well as his deputy, Major Kazimierz Gwiazdowicz; of the three, only Kuznicki received a one year sentence, while the other two were acquitted.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Today is Holodomor Remembrance Day in Ukraine.

1933 painting:





https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

[gypsie]

The current bombing more than echos it.

[jdmcintyre]

Two films, The first was shown to me by a German friend who's father walked several hundred miles from Poland to escape the advancing Russian Army at the end of WW II. He was eight. She tells me that he still licks his plate clean.


Ida (One of the best films made in the last few years in my opinion.)


https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2718492/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0


A novice nun about to take her vows uncovers a family secret dating back to the German occupation.


Directed by Pawel Pawlikowski




Mr Jones


https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6828390/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0


Gareth Jones breaks the news of the Holodomor in Ukraine in the western media.

[WX]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-...enly/101703524

Belarus' foreign minister, Vladimir Makei — a longtime associate of authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko — has died suddenly, aged 64.

[Nicholas Carey]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-...enly/101703524

Another open window? Or steep stairs and a loose carpet?

[WX]

Another open window? Or steep stairs and a loose carpet?

Possibly something in his caviar.

[dutchpp]

The weather forecast predicts very heavy snow in Ukraine today, at least 6 million people are still without electricity and most of them without heating.

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, November 26.

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...nt-november-26

Key Takeaways

• The overall pace of operations in Ukraine is likely to increase in the upcoming weeks as the ground freezes throughout the theater.
• Russian officials are continuing efforts to deport Ukrainian children to Russia.
• Russian officials may be trying to counteract Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s growing influence through the promotion of other parallel Russian military structures.
• Russian forces are likely using inert Kh-55 missiles designed solely to carry nuclear warheads in its campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure, highlighting the Russian military’s depletion of high-precision weapons.
• Russian forces continued defensive operations against ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in the directions of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
• Russian forces continued establishing fortifications in eastern Kherson Oblast.
• Russian tactical, logistical, and equipment failures continue to decrease the morale of Russian troops and drive searches for scapegoats.

[George.]

You also do not seem to recall that the Japanese had withdrawn all the regular army units from Manchuria to defend the home island, leaving a few colonial conscripts commanded by some of the less fortunate Japanese officers to defend Manchuria. If the opposing army leaves, yes, you can take a lot of territory quickly.

The Japanese had over a million men in China and Manchuria when the bombs were dropped, including their most experienced units. Giving up China and Manchuria would be giving up the reason for which they started the war.

[gypsie]

The great pressure that was threatening; Europe going cold for winter and forcing Ukraine hand, how is that picture? Any insights from our European brethren?

[dutchpp]

The great pressure that was threatening; Europe going cold for winter and forcing Ukraine hand, how is that picture? Any insights from our European brethren?

Most European countries have imported a lot of natural gas and LNG from other sources and filled up their stocks.
The predictions are that this winter won't be a problem. But perhaps next winter will be.

[C. Ross]

Most European countries have imported a lot of natural gas and LNG from other sources and filled up their stocks.
The predictions are that this winter won't be a problem. But perhaps next winter will be.

Europe’s move away from Russian sources has been impressive.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...as-2022-10-24/

[johnw]

The Japanese had over a million men in China and Manchuria when the bombs were dropped, including their most experienced units. Giving up China and Manchuria would be giving up the reason for which they started the war.

Their best troops and equipment had been transferred to the Pacific front long before the Russians invaded. Many of the troops there were Chinese (the Manchukou army.) When the Russians invaded, they faced no guns that could take out a T-34, and the Japanese resorted to suicide troops that strapped explosives to themselves and tried to get to the tank so they could blow it up.

The conscripts from the Donbas region have found themselves in a position similar to the conscripts in the Manchukou army, considered disposable by the imperial power they served and given weapons inadequate to the task they were given.

[johnw]

Europe’s move away from Russian sources has been impressive.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...as-2022-10-24/

That's encouraging.

[Clan Gordon]

Europe’s move away from Russian sources has been impressive.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...as-2022-10-24/

What that article seems to miss is that a lot of the gas to fill the European storage has come from the US - in the form of LNG. The US has radically ramped up (tripled) its exports to Europe. In September 70% of US exports went to Europe.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...-Has-Lost.html


Most of that is LNG from fracked US gas which some Europeans were not so keen on not so long ago.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/ene...mental-impact/


Quite a lot of the US LNG was transferred into Europe from the UK - because some European countries (like Germany) have no LNG import facilities (though they soon will), whereas (in one of the few signs of intelligence in recent UK energy policy), the UK invested in increasing its LNG import capacity some years back. The UK gas export volumes to Europe have been far higher than usual this year.

https://www.share-talk.com/uk-will-b...e-for-storage/

It will be interesting to see what happens this winter if (as usually happens) the UK needs to import gas back from Europe.

[Peerie Maa]

We don't mind the US screwing up its people by fracking gas, that is for the US government to legislate. It is just that we don't want to take the risks of seismic events that come with the process in the UK.

[WX]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63773654

Genocide involves "the intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial or religious group", according to a definition provided by the UN Genocide Convention.Among the acts which may qualify are killing or causing serious harm to members of that group - or forcibly transferring its children elsewhere.


In his BBC interview, Ukrainian Prosecutor-General Andriy Kostin said that, as well as the attacks on the energy grid, 11,000 Ukrainian children had been forcibly deported to Russia.


Mr Kostin said his office was investigating reports of more than 49,000 war crimes and crimes of aggression since Russia launched its full-scale invasion on 24 February.


The "same pattern of conduct" was being seen in every Ukrainian settlement occupied by Russian forces, he observed.


A war crime constitutes a violation of the so-called "rules" of war set out by international treaties including the Geneva Conventions.



Among other things, the Conventions stipulate that civilians must be protected. Russia has been repeatedly accused of breaking this rule.

[Garret]

We don't mind the US screwing up its people by fracking gas, that is for the US government to legislate. It is just that we don't want to take the risks of seismic events that come with the process in the UK.

And ground water plus aquifer contamination

[Vadim 68]

What that article seems to miss is that a lot of the gas to fill the European storage has come from the US - in the form of LNG. The US has radically ramped up (tripled) its exports to Europe. In September 70% of US exports went to Europe.

.

Yes, but not everyone in Europe can afford an energy bill 4 times larger than usual. Tell me again who benefits from the destruction of NS2.

"The United States sells us its gas with a multiplier effect of four when it crosses the Atlantic," European Commissioner for the Internal Market Thierry Breton said on French TV on Wednesday. "Of course the Americans are our allies... but when something goes wrong it is necessary also between allies to say it."

[skuthorp]

We don't mind the US screwing up its people by fracking gas, that is for the US government to legislate. It is just that we don't want to take the risks of seismic events that come with the process in the UK.

Same here, but some conservative state governments are not as 'conservative' as their voters on the subject, and the previous Federal government that was enthusiastic about it was reduced to a rump with, at present, little relevancy.

[WX]

Yes, but not everyone in Europe can afford an energy bill 4 times larger than usual. Tell me again who benefits from the destruction of NS2.

"The United States sells us its gas with a multiplier effect of four when it crosses the Atlantic," European Commissioner for the Internal Market Thierry Breton said on French TV on Wednesday. "Of course the Americans are our allies... but when something goes wrong it is necessary also between allies to say it."

I don't think the Yanks would go to the trouble of blowing up a gas pipeline to increase their sales.

BERLIN, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Germany on Tuesday halted the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea gas pipeline project, designed to double the flow of Russian gas direct to Germany, after Russia formally recognised two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine.
Europe's most divisive energy project, worth $11 billion, was finished in September, but has stood idle pending certification by Germany and the European Union.
The pipeline had been set to ease the pressure on European consumers facing record energy prices amid a wider post-pandemic cost of living crisis, and on governments that have already forked out billions to try to cushion the impact on consumers

Some history.
https://www.cleanenergywire.org/fact...-splits-europe
Did Russia do it?

NS1 was already offline, ostensibly because of sanctions, so the leaks don’t change the near-term availability of gas on the European market. (The gas that is now leaking into the sea had been fed into the pipelines to keep them pressurized.) Russia could always have kept the pipelines shut, of course, but some analysts have suggested that Russia may have an economic motive for damaging them. Mysterious explosions would allow Russia to blame the leaks on force majeure, in order toto wriggle out of looming multi-billion-dollar legal claims by European utilities that feel ripped off by the NS1 shutdowns

How it might have been done.
https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje...am-2-pipelines

According to the most likely version, the damage to the pipelines was caused by a deliberate Russian act. Of the options available to the Russian Federation in the Baltic Sea, the action of Russian military intelligence units is probable. This thesis is made more plausible by the fact that certain rescue units equipped with specialised underwater equipment which could be used for sabotage actions participated in the pipelines’ construction. In 2021, the facilities were inspected by specialists from the Russian Ministry of Defence’s Main Directorate of Deep Sea Research (GUGI military unit no. 45707) and soldiers from the underwater sabotage subunit from the base at Baltiysk. Their participation in the work demonstrates that Moscow considers the pipelines to be objects of military importance that are subject to special protection, and has ensured that they can be destroyed (e.g. by pre-positioned explosive charges), not least to worsen the economic situation in Europe.

[C. Ross]

Yes, but not everyone in Europe can afford an energy bill 4 times larger than usual. Tell me again who benefits from the destruction of NS2.

"The United States sells us its gas with a multiplier effect of four when it crosses the Atlantic," European Commissioner for the Internal Market Thierry Breton said on French TV on Wednesday. "Of course the Americans are our allies... but when something goes wrong it is necessary also between allies to say it."

Ha ha ha ha!!

You need to up your game, Comrade.

[gypsie]

Yes, but not everyone in Europe can afford an energy bill 4 times larger than usual. Tell me again who benefits from the destruction of NS2.

I don't think the Yanks would go to the trouble of blowing up a gas pipeline to increase their sales.

I was wondering where he was going with that.

Australia is one of the worlds biggest exporters of gas. The value of that gas has gone through the roof.
I think it was Australia who blew up NS2. Specifically Johnno from Carnarvon who recently spotted that part of his superannuation is invested in the company he works for. You know Johnno, he sits at the end of the bar, the guy with the blue singlet always has a cigarette stuck over his ear. He was particularly stoked when it happened, which is strange cause he doesn't even know where Europe is.

[WX]

I was wondering where he was going with that.

Australia is one of the worlds biggest exporters of gas. The value of that gas has gone through the roof.
I think it was Australia who blew up NS2. Specifically Johnno from Carnarvon who recently spotted that part of his superannuation is invested in the company he works for. You know Johnno, he sits at the end of the bar, the guy with the blue singlet always has a cigarette stuck over his ear. He was particularly stoked when it happened, which is strange cause he doesn't even know where Europe is.

I do like that.

[Vadim 68]

I don't think the Yanks would go to the trouble of blowing up a gas pipeline to increase their sales.

Maybe think about it some more? Do you not see any connection to any of the US interventions in the ME and what those countries main income is?

How do you explain US military in Syria, not protecting people from terrorists or Assad, but oil pumps?

The EU is the biggest importer of NG in the world and 41% of that came from Russia, and Americans have made obvious remarks about what a great opportunity it is to supply the EU.

Germany have said they already know who is responsible, but for national security reasons, can not say who. Given the speed at which they have blamed Russia for other things, one has to ask, if they know it was Russia, why would they not say?

[dutchpp]

For Johno's education the ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, November 27.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...nt-november-27

Key inflections in ongoing military operations on November 27:

• The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian officials are preparing for another wave of covert mobilization starting on December 10 in the Russian Federation and in Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine.[13]
• Russian milbloggers widely criticized the Russian Federal Customs Service for customs delays and exclusions of dual-use goods that volunteer movements have been sending to the Russian military.[14]
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Russian forces along the Svatove-Kreminna line are conducting defensive operations around Kupyansk and offensive operations west of Kreminna.[15]
• Russian sources reported that Ukrainian troops continued counteroffensive operations toward Svatove and Kreminna.[16]
• Russian forces continued offensive operations around Avdiivka.[17] The Ukrainian General Staff did not report that Ukrainian forces repelled any ground attacks around Bakhmut on November 27, suggesting that Russian forces may have advanced in the area.[18]
• Russian forces conducted strikes against Dnipro City, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia City.[19]
• Russian occupation officials continued to forcibly transfer Ukrainian children from occupied territories in Luhansk Oblast to Russia under the guise that the children require special medical care.[20]

[Vadim 68]

You need to up your game, Comrade.

Jossep Borrel is Spanish. Started his career as a socialist and helped bring Spain into a modern democracy.

Do you know where Spain is?

[Vadim 68]

The value of that gas has gone through the roof.
I think it was Australia who blew up NS2.

Marine traffic showed no Australian vessels in the vicinity, and flight radar showed no Australian aircraft.

Both showed a US warship and anti submarine capable helicopters in the area for several hours the night prior to the explosion. Probably just a coincidence.

[WX]

Maybe think about it some more? Do you not see any connection to any of the US interventions in the ME and what those countries main income is?

How do you explain US military in Syria, not protecting people from terrorists or Assad, but oil pumps?

The EU is the biggest importer of NG in the world and 41% of that came from Russia, and Americans have made obvious remarks about what a great opportunity it is to supply the EU.

Germany have said they already know who is responsible, but for national security reasons, can not say who. Given the speed at which they have blamed Russia for other things, one has to ask, if they know it was Russia, why would they not say?

I am under no illusions regarding US interference in the politics and resources of other countries.
I don't think they did this one though.

[jdmcintyre]

An interview with Timothy Snyder in this mornings Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-drone-defence

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Stefan Korshak quotes Goethe:

https://medium.com/@Stefan.Korshak/n...f-63815e60b267

[Peerie Maa]

The first episode of this, Simon Schama’s History of Now (BBC Two), aired last night demonstrates how Trump, Erdoğan, and the Russian government all behaved, and now Putin in Ukraine, as predicted by Orwell in "1984".

Episode one, subtitled Truth and Democracy, deals with what Schama sees as an era-defining battle between totalitarianism’s suppression of truth and artists’ unextinguishable yearning to tell it. An admiring glance at Picasso’s Guernica leads into an assessment of the disinformation battle running alongside the Spanish civil war, and how being on the wrong end of fascist lies inspired George Orwell to turn propaganda into dystopian fiction. Then, as the hot war of the 1930s and 40s turns cold, we’re in the Soviet Union in the late 50s, where Boris Pasternak knew the dissident sentiments within his epic novel Doctor Zhivago would lead to it being censored, but persevered and, following an exciting series of incidents involving smuggled manuscripts and CIA-backed publications abroad, won the Nobel prize.

[gypsie]

Thanks Nick, I look forward to it. The beeb always gets behind good quality doco's

[gypsie]

Marine traffic showed no Australian vessels in the vicinity, and flight radar showed no Australian aircraft.

Both showed a US warship and anti submarine capable helicopters in the area for several hours the night prior to the explosion. Probably just a coincidence.

Ah, you clearly have no idea how this carp works.
I'd tell you how I know, but I'd get arrested.
But apart from that you might underestimate the resourcefulness of an Aussie tradie with a singular focus.