Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[willmarsh3]

Yep, joining the European union or NATO might make some sense today.

Of course in 1969 the communist regime was running things in Russia, and they were intent on exporting communism around the world. Before that the Germans invaded in WW2 and before that Napoleon invaded. Both of these nearly reached Moscow. I can only speculate that a culture of paranoia was born or reinforced out of that. So back then such would have been out of the question.

Today as far as I know a nationalist thinking has taken hold under Putin. Given that some of my peers have their thinking subverted to conspiracy theories and such has opened my eyes to how easily people can be swayed in their thinking toward a political objective.

[johnw]

Putin needs a threat to remain credible and macho.

He'd have zero chance against China, and besides they supposedly share an ideology.

There is also the hurt of the break up of the USSR and the loss of many provinces to European style democracies. Pride as usual.

The no longer share an ideology. China is officially communist, and Xi Who Must Be Obeyed wants this taken more seriously. Russia is a nationalist country where the government is backed by the Russian Orthodox Church, essentially a fascist kleptocracy.

[CWSmith]

The no longer share an ideology. China is officially communist, and Xi Who Must Be Obeyed wants this taken more seriously. Russia is a nationalist country where the government is backed by the Russian Orthodox Church, essentially a fascist kleptocracy.

Backed by the Russian Orthodox Church? This is news to me. In what way?

[skuthorp]

Backed by the Russian Orthodox Church? This is news to me. In what way?

Sold out to and for power. Not for the first time either.
Religious sects can be like that, being human constructs.

[Nicholas Carey]

The direction of travel is clear, though.

Ask your nearest Finn, Latvian, Lithuanian or Estonian.

Which reminds me. Need to lean on my sister to dig up my mom's birth certificate, etc. so I can register my Latvian citizenship. Believe my kids are eligible, too. It would be nice to have a red passport, especially if things like democracy go in the toilet here in the 'States.

Yes to Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. Finland seems like too much even for Putin, don’t you think?

I hope Biden doesn’t bend tomorrow. “Peace in our time” has been done.

The one saving grace about the "ex-SSRs" is that they're full-blown members of NATO and the EU. That raises the bar for Putin, at least now that his minion is out of the White House.

[johnw]

Backed by the Russian Orthodox Church? This is news to me. In what way?

Like this: https://www.esquire.com/news-politic...ailed-blogger/

and this: https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/10...h-on-his-side/

[LeeG]

Yep, joining the European union or NATO might make some sense today.

Of course in 1969 the communist regime was running things in Russia, and they were intent on exporting communism around the world. Before that the Germans invaded in WW2 and before that Napoleon invaded. Both of these nearly reached Moscow. I can only speculate that a culture of paranoia was born or reinforced out of that. So back then such would have been out of the question.

Today as far as I know a nationalist thinking has taken hold under Putin. Given that some of my peers have their thinking subverted to conspiracy theories and such has opened my eyes to how easily people can be swayed in their thinking toward a political objective.

Here’s a worthwhile book about US war on communism. Speaking of exporting ideologies.

https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/t...9781541724013/

[SMARTINSEN]

Just a bit of pedantry, but omit "the" from Ukraine. It is like saying the Brasil, or the Canada. And it is considered by Ukranians a mild slur, like saying the Democrat Party.

I do not know if Putin will invsde, or Xi, but I an damned tired of living in interesting times.

[CWSmith]

Like this: https://www.esquire.com/news-politic...ailed-blogger/

and this: https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/10...h-on-his-side/

Well, that's sickening. The path to heaven is not made smooth by making a deal with the devil. That will come back and bite them.

I must say that the Russian people disappointed me greatly when the Communist system collapsed. What I read said they wanted to feel powerful again and turned their backs on building a better society.

[lupussonic]

The no longer share an ideology. China is officially communist, and Xi Who Must Be Obeyed wants this taken more seriously. Russia is a nationalist country where the government is backed by the Russian Orthodox Church, essentially a fascist kleptocracy.

China is communist in name only, just like Russia.

Perhaps you missed the "supposedly".

[CWSmith]

As I understand Marx' Communist writings, a state would go through a benevolent totalitarian phase to cleanse society of negative influences and then the true Communist state of joyful and unselfish sharing would begin (only an academic could be that stupid).

The problem is that neither Russia nor China have ever passed out of that totalitarian phase.

Ironically, the only true Communist communities are religious groups like monasteries and Marx did not like those.

[offbelayknife]

Historical materialism is a cyclical view of history, not one with a trajectory.

[Mitziel]

Before that the Germans invaded in WW2 and before that Napoleon invaded. Both of these nearly reached Moscow. I can only speculate that a culture of paranoia was born or reinforced out of that.

Napoleon did reach Moscow, from which the Tsars's army had withdrawn and would not be drawn in battle. Napoleon waited, looted, and withdrew too late; winter won.

But it's not as though the Ruskies always minded their own business and were rudely set upon twice. Since around 1600, through Peter & Catherine & the 19th century tsars, the Russian empire grew out of the original small patch around Moscow.

The difference between the French and German invasions, and the Russian invasions that created their empire, is that the Russians won - and they stayed.

Some regions sought escape from the empire after the 1917 revolution but were crushed in the civil war; they had to wait til the end of the 20th century for another shot at freedom.

It's that old empire Putin wants back. Ukraine is on the list.



Sent from my MI MAX 3 using Tapatalk

[Nicholas Carey]

As I understand Marx' Communist writings, a state would go through a benevolent totalitarian phase . . .[until...]

You're killing me. Or at least Marx is

[Hugh MacD]

Backed by the Russian Orthodox Church? This is news to me. In what way?

When has religion been about anything but power?

[skuthorp]

Combination of hubris, racial profiling and complacency.

It ain't gone away, I'm seeing it in the attitude to Vlad and Lee.

[johnw]

China is communist in name only, just like Russia.

Perhaps you missed the "supposedly".

Russia is no longer even 'supposedly' Communist.

[George.]

NATO thought now would be a good time to reaffirm that Ukraine may eventually join.

Russia then issued an ultimatum of sorts - they won't invade if NATO promises to effectively withdraw from Poland and the Baltic member states.

Maybe next they'll try "dear Nicky - dear Willy"?

[willmarsh3]

Another thing to add to why Putin would invade and take over parts of Ukraine.

Irredentism

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...m-world-peace/

And Putin's essay on the subject.

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181

[Hallam]

Another thing to add to why Putin would invade and take over parts of Ukraine.

Irredentism

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...m-world-peace/

And Putin's essay on the subject.

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181

Thanks, a great contribution to the thread.

[George.]

The conclusion of the WaPo article:

The United States faces an unprecedented geopolitical situation: Two giant powers, Russia and China, dominate the Eurasian land mass; both are relatively politically stable and nuclear-armed; both are hostile to the United States; both wield vetoes, often in concert, at the U.N. Security Council.


And the rulers of both have staked their prestige on irredentist projects that the United States has staked its prestige on thwarting.

Why?

I mean, I feel for the people in Ukraine and Taiwan, but I also feel for the Uighurs, and the Congolese, and the Venezuelans, and Hong Kong, and the women of Saudi Arabia, but no one is threatening WW3 over their suffering. Where is the line drawn?

[George.]

NATO responds to Putin's demands by threatening to escalate:

https://www.dw.com/en/nato-mulls-dep...gel/a-60182693

One of NATO's most senior generals has suggested the alliance should deploy troops in Bulgaria and Romania after Russia's military buildup near the Ukrainian border, German newspaper DerSpiegel reported on Saturday.

[johnw]

This might explain part of the motivation Putin has for invading Ukraine or keeping it in a state of turmoil. This is from the standpoint of how well Russia can protect itself from foreign invaders.

By these standards, Belgium would need to expand its boundaries the the Pyrenees, the Alps, and the Urals to have secure borders.

[David G]

Posturing, and likely to remain such.

[Nicholas Carey]

NATO thought now would be a good time to reaffirm that Ukraine may eventually join.

Russia then issued an ultimatum of sorts - they won't invade if NATO promises to effectively withdraw from Poland and the Baltic member states.

Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia are full-fledged members of NATO. Bailing on them to appease Russia would effectively
gut Article 5, and be the death of NATO.

It's less than 200 miles from the Russian frontier in Latvia to Riga, on the Baltic. If Russia invaded, Latvia would last, what -- maybe a couple of days, tops? -- without NATO forces as a deterrent.

Posturing, and likely to remain such.

Your mouth to God's ears.

Wouldn't take much in the way of screwups for things to go T.U.

Witness the start of WW1 (see Barbara Tuchman's The Guns of August regarding how a lame anarchist managed to kick off the all the horrors of the entire 20th century (and, seemingly, now the 21st century to date) merely by assassinating a bit player in the Hapsburg Astor-Hungarian empire in a backwater town.

[David G]

Some thoughts by those more knowledgeable than I --

https://foreignpolicy.com/projects/u...-blast-ukraine

[CWSmith]

I can't say that I'm happy to see this thread resurface, but such is the way of the world today.

There is some serious saber rattling going on.

[Osborne Russell]

The no longer share an ideology . . .

Russia's current Constitution declares the state to be ideologically neutral.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Russia is silently Pan-Slav, which is a nice way of saying crypto-Fascist and definitely irredentist. Mr Putin would like to have the Soviet Union back, which is a big project when your economy is about the size of Italy’s.

The Chinese Empire wishes to return to its borders as they were under the Qianlong Emperor of Qing at around 1790. At the moment the Empire is repeating the Pacification of Xinjiang, which was last undertaken by the Qianlong Emperor in 1759, using very similar methods.

Both nations claim the right to protect anyone who shares their racial origins and their languages.

Ideology? Who needs it?

[CWSmith]

Both nations claim the right to protect anyone who shares their racial origins and their languages.

Both nations are displaying massive paranoia claiming a need for greater borders.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

I regret this, but I am not sure that the massive world-righting skills of the Bilge are able to give the answer to the question in the title.

However, Vlad seems to like adding to the forces that he has deployed along the borders of Ukraine. This seems a bit odd. He could have despatched his Marines units by sea at any time and he could have positioned ground forces in Belarus at any time.

Meanwhile he has to keep enough troops in Kazakhstan to keep the place quiet and to ensure that his good friend Xi Jinping has no reason to intervene there in order to maintain good order.