Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 35 of 64

Thread: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    New Hampshire
    Posts
    38,929

    Default Will Russia invade the Ukraine?


    Satellite images show the buildup of Russian forces near Ukraine that have the US and NATO worried about an invasion

    • New satellite images of the buildup of Russian forces near Ukraine's borders have come out.
    • The troop buildup has raised concerns that Russia may invade its neighbor as soon as early next year.
    • The Biden administration has warned of "severe consequences" if Russia takes military action.

    New satellite photos show the buildup of Russian armed forces at strategic locations in western Russia near the Ukrainian border and at one spot in Crimea amid concerns that Russia will invade its neighbor in the near future.

    The images, which Insider obtained from Maxar Technologies, show a number of Russian tactical battle groups, including both personnel and equipment, such as tanks, artillery, and armored troop carriers, deployed to the Pogonovo training area and Yelnya in Russia and Novoozernoye in Crimea in November.

    After snap drills in the spring near Ukraine triggered a few alarms, tensions de-escalated for a time. But alarm bells began ringing again when a significant number of Russian troops were observed gathering a couple hundred miles from Ukraine's border early last month.

    Amid a flurry of reports on the Russian troop buildup, State Department and Pentagon officials publicly characterized Russian activity as "unusual" and expressed some concern over Russia's lack of transparency about the reasons for the troop increase.
    There is more:

    Satellite images show the buildup of Russian forces near Ukraine that have the US and NATO worried about an invasion (msn.com)
    "Where you live in the world should not determine whether you live in the world." - Bono

    "Live in such a way that you would not be ashamed to sell your parrot to the town gossip." - Will Rogers

    "Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others." - Groucho Marx

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Northeast
    Posts
    19,952

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    Well, we know they already have. The question becomes will they complete the job?
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jul 2021
    Location
    -
    Posts
    623

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    Yes, using global financial crisis for cover. Will they do it overtly though? Or with 'little green men'?

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Valley of the Sun
    Posts
    117,179

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    no

    they don't have to do so, nor do they want to do so
    they merely want to maintain ukraine within their sphere of influence

    merely being there massing on the border prevents the ukraine from gaining friends and allies
    prevents them from ever being invited to join nato

    its cheaper and easier to act belligerent than to actually invade and the ends are the same
    Last edited by Paul Pless; 12-06-2021 at 07:37 PM.
    Simpler is better, except when complicated looks really cool.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Sep 2020
    Location
    City of Charm and Tradition, MN, USA
    Posts
    449

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    When China invades Taiwan. Probably soon as they have to "mobilize the masses" to distract the masses as their economy tanks.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    victoria, australia. (1 address now)
    Posts
    70,244

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Pless View Post
    no

    they don't have to do so, nor do they want to do so
    they merely want to maintain ukraine within their sphere of influence

    merely being their masses on the border prevents the ukraine from gaining friends and allies
    prevents them from ever being invited to join nato

    its cheaper and easier to act belligerent than to actually invade and the ends are the same
    What Paul said, but brinkmanship has it's own risks, and if China moved on Taiwan……...

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Gulgong. Central west N.S.W. Australia
    Posts
    6,061

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    Someone needs to drop something very heavy from a great height on Putin. Like a piano- with trump in it

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    Fredericton, New Brunswick
    Posts
    49,140

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    I think Paul's got it. This is likely about trying to ensure that Ukraine doesn't get any closer to joining NATO. Putin wants to recreate the sphere of influence of the former USSR, not least because proving his military prowess that way will distract the Russian population from domestic troubles. That is, the key audience for Russia's military posturing is IMO domestic.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    Central Coast, Ca
    Posts
    34,568

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Pless View Post
    no

    they don't have to do so, nor do they want to do so
    they merely want to maintain ukraine within their sphere of influence

    merely being their masses on the border prevents the ukraine from gaining friends and allies
    prevents them from ever being invited to join nato

    its cheaper and easier to act belligerent than to actually invade and the ends are the same
    So you think they learned something from Afghanistan then

    If only we were as clever

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Marblehead MA
    Posts
    3,174

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    I think Putin would like to reassemble the Soviet Union. He may invade the Ukraine, it's not clear they could fight back effectively.

    We tend to underestimate how bad things can get.
    Yachting, the only sport where you get to be a mechanic, electrician, plumber and carpenter

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Aug 1999
    Location
    Woodbridge, Suffolk, UK
    Posts
    27,560

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    The direction of travel is clear, though.

    Ask your nearest Finn, Latvian, Lithuanian or Estonian.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Northeast
    Posts
    19,952

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    Quote Originally Posted by TomF View Post
    I think Paul's got it. This is likely about trying to ensure that Ukraine doesn't get any closer to joining NATO. Putin wants to recreate the sphere of influence of the former USSR, not least because proving his military prowess that way will distract the Russian population from domestic troubles. That is, the key audience for Russia's military posturing is IMO domestic.
    I'm not so certain. He's already seen that the West is unwilling to go to war over Ukraine - even after it has become painfully clear what has happened in the Donbass. I don't think he'll try to take the whole thing - what he'll do is simply take another slice and claim that Russia needs it as a "buffer" to protect it from Western aggression.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  13. #13
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    Fredericton, New Brunswick
    Posts
    49,140

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    Difference being that several countries - Canada included - have troops either in Ukraine right now or nearby. Canada has an ongoing military mission in Ukraine training their soldiers - a friend spent a bunch of time over there recently. And we have a battle group stationed nearby too- can't remember offhand which country- exactly to help deter. As these are NATO functions, we won't be the only such folks already prepositioned.

    This was intended to give Putin second thoughts about doing what he seems determined to do anyhow.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

  14. #14
    Join Date
    May 2002
    Location
    the hills
    Posts
    66,766

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    I don’t think so but that’s just me picking preferred interpretations.. One thing that is undeniable is that most US news sources frame conflicts between other countries in terms implying a threat to the US or the story of the US as world manager which means we must “be strong on defense” and feed the CMIC.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    St. Paul, MN Mississippi River Milepost 840.2
    Posts
    14,089

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett View Post
    The direction of travel is clear, though.

    Ask your nearest Finn, Latvian, Lithuanian or Estonian.
    Yes to Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. Finland seems like too much even for Putin, don’t you think?

    I hope Biden doesn’t bend tomorrow. “Peace in our time” has been done.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    West Sacramento, CA
    Posts
    9,955

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    And the US has just promised we'll provide cover and support for NATO partners should Russia come across the border with forces newly positioned to. And at the same time we're sending a similar message to China over Taiwan and snubbing them over sending official representatives to the Beijing Olympics to protest China's human rights violations. Tension escalates, tit for tat, on two fronts.
    Speak softly and carry a mouthful of marbles.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Apr 2015
    Location
    St. Helens, Oregon
    Posts
    4,676

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    I really like JayInOz's idea....

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    New Hampshire
    Posts
    38,929

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    Quote Originally Posted by Canoez View Post
    ...what he'll do is simply take another slice and claim that Russia needs it as a "buffer" to protect it from Western aggression.
    Does it seem that Russia as a culture is universally paranoid? I mean, Hitler invaded Russia and regretted it. The Cold War was at least half Russia's doing (I'll admit we kept it going as well, but who wouldn't?). Nobody invades Russia. Nobody wants the place.
    "Where you live in the world should not determine whether you live in the world." - Bono

    "Live in such a way that you would not be ashamed to sell your parrot to the town gossip." - Will Rogers

    "Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others." - Groucho Marx

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Deepest Darkest Wales
    Posts
    24,905

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Ross View Post
    Yes to Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. Finland seems like too much even for Putin, don’t you think?

    I hope Biden doesn’t bend tomorrow. “Peace in our time” has been done.
    The Finns would like Karelia back.
    I'd much rather lay in my bunk all freakin day lookin at Youtube videos .

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Sep 2017
    Location
    Espoo, Finland
    Posts
    22

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    Quote Originally Posted by P.I. Stazzer-Newt View Post
    The Finns would like Karelia back.
    Only a small minority wishes that... Soviets trashed the place with no maintenace, poor roads to really bad etc, so bringing it up to proper finnish level would be way too expensive….

  21. #21
    Join Date
    Nov 2001
    Location
    Germany
    Posts
    2,301

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    From what has been reported in the news the last years, Ukraine is deeply divided. The East of Ukraine is apparently mostly "Pro Russia" whereas the West of Ukraine is not. So, the East might welcome initiative from Russia whereas the West of the Ukraine would not.

    In the last years, Ukraine has apparently not managed to overcome this split. Which can now be a risk for maintaining Ukraine as one state.
    Last edited by Henning 4148; 12-07-2021 at 06:21 AM.

  22. #22
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Marblehead MA
    Posts
    3,174

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    Putin may be looking at the Ukrainian drone deal with Turkey and thinking that he will lose military advantage over time. The Turks have used drones to smash Putin's allies in Syria and then in Armenia. War is changing in ways that look bad for armies that depend on a lot of tanks and mobile artillery. The US has barely noticed because we have not been blown up yet, but the Russians have noticed because their stuff (but not their troops) got hammered into scrap.

    Turkey is resurgent, and making a play for natural resources in its region. The Turks are arming Ukraine. Would Turkey gain power if Russia started a war that went on for a long time or cost a lot?

    When considering the situation it's worth remembering that this is not just a Russia Nato conflict.
    Yachting, the only sport where you get to be a mechanic, electrician, plumber and carpenter

  23. #23
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Location
    2 states: NJ and confusion
    Posts
    43,259

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    I'd like to ask all the 'Monday morning quarterbacks' who complained about withdrawal from Afghanistan, how they would handle this situation. What do they believe is the right thing to do?
    "alternative facts (lies)" are a cancer eating through a democracy, and will kill it. 1st amendment is not absolute.

  24. #24
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    victoria, australia. (1 address now)
    Posts
    70,244

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    I note the proximity to Dec. 7.

    I wonder if Vlad, or Xi do?

  25. #25
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    Cantão - Brazil
    Posts
    16,664

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Mahan View Post
    And the US has just promised we'll provide cover and support for NATO partners should Russia come across the border with forces newly positioned to. And at the same time we're sending a similar message to China over Taiwan and snubbing them over sending official representatives to the Beijing Olympics to protest China's human rights violations. Tension escalates, tit for tat, on two fronts.
    Do you think this is a good time for Israel to bomb Iran's centrifuges?

  26. #26
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Deepest Darkest Wales
    Posts
    24,905

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    Or Iran to demolish Israel's..
    I'd much rather lay in my bunk all freakin day lookin at Youtube videos .

  27. #27
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Huntsville, AL
    Posts
    6,938

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    This might explain part of the motivation Putin has for invading Ukraine or keeping it in a state of turmoil. This is from the standpoint of how well Russia can protect itself from foreign invaders.


    Will

  28. #28
    Join Date
    Aug 1999
    Location
    Woodbridge, Suffolk, UK
    Posts
    27,560

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    This is becoming a very interesting thread.

    I think that Biden is patching up the holes in the US defence posture that were knocked into it over four years by a lazy and careless President who could not be bothered to learn the subject and who treated it as a series of photo ops.

    Biden understands this subject very well and has been at home in it for decades, but the damage done by the idleness and irresponsibility of Trump has been considerable.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  29. #29
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Marblehead MA
    Posts
    3,174

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    Digging into this a little deeper. The cease fire agreement includes a provision that says neither side will use foreign drones in the combat area. On October 26th some Russian (or east Ukranian) artillery opened fire and killed a Ukranian soldier. The Ukranians responded with a drone strike on one of the guns. "after that, the shelling stopped."

    Then Ukraine put a video of the strike on facebook. The guys manning the gun are lucky, they live, and all run away.

    It's a big change when you have been able to fire artillery into your neighbors with impunity, and suddenly they can stop you.
    Yachting, the only sport where you get to be a mechanic, electrician, plumber and carpenter

  30. #30
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Northeast
    Posts
    19,952

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Hunter View Post
    Digging into this a little deeper. The cease fire agreement includes a provision that says neither side will use foreign drones in the combat area. On October 26th some Russian (or east Ukranian) artillery opened fire and killed a Ukranian soldier. The Ukranians responded with a drone strike on one of the guns. "after that, the shelling stopped."

    Then Ukraine put a video of the strike on facebook. The guys manning the gun are lucky, they live, and all run away.

    It's a big change when you have been able to fire artillery into your neighbors with impunity, and suddenly they can stop you.
    Also begs the question if Ukraine has the technical sophistication to make home-grown drones in addition to the Turkish ones.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  31. #31
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Location
    UK. Cornwall, Suffolk.
    Posts
    9,096

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    The Crimea / Sevastopol is Russia's military power base that allows it's projection into Syria and the ME, and beyond. It is an area that has long been disputed between Russia and the Ukraine. It is presently surrounded by the Ukraine, a fact which is useful to remember in a discussion such as this.

  32. #32
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    New Hampshire
    Posts
    38,929

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett View Post
    I think that Biden is patching up the holes in the US defence posture that were knocked into it over four years by a lazy and careless President who could not be bothered to learn the subject and who treated it as a series of photo ops.
    You imply it was an accident and not deliberate. I think Trump was bought and paid for.
    "Where you live in the world should not determine whether you live in the world." - Bono

    "Live in such a way that you would not be ashamed to sell your parrot to the town gossip." - Will Rogers

    "Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others." - Groucho Marx

  33. #33
    Join Date
    Nov 2001
    Location
    Seattle
    Posts
    28,631

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    Quote Originally Posted by willmarsh3 View Post
    This might explain part of the motivation Putin has for invading Ukraine or keeping it in a state of turmoil. This is from the standpoint of how well Russia can protect itself from foreign invaders.


    I'm sure that's how Putin sees things, but there are a couple things wrong with this. Russia had the option of turning toward Europe, and could itself have become part of NATO had they been willing to function like a normal European country.

    And, the only nation to go on Russian soil and kill Russian soldiers since WW II would be China in 1969, wouldn't it? So why is Russia mainly worried about Europe?

  34. #34
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Location
    UK. Cornwall, Suffolk.
    Posts
    9,096

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    Putin needs a threat to remain credible and macho.

    He'd have zero chance against China, and besides they supposedly share an ideology.

    There is also the hurt of the break up of the USSR and the loss of many provinces to European style democracies. Pride as usual.

  35. #35
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Huntsville, AL
    Posts
    6,938

    Default Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

    Yep, joining the European union or NATO might make some sense today.

    Of course in 1969 the communist regime was running things in Russia, and they were intent on exporting communism around the world. Before that the Germans invaded in WW2 and before that Napoleon invaded. Both of these nearly reached Moscow. I can only speculate that a culture of paranoia was born or reinforced out of that. So back then such would have been out of the question.

    Today as far as I know a nationalist thinking has taken hold under Putin. Given that some of my peers have their thinking subverted to conspiracy theories and such has opened my eyes to how easily people can be swayed in their thinking toward a political objective.
    Will

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •