Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[CWSmith]

Satellite images show the buildup of Russian forces near Ukraine that have the US and NATO worried about an invasion

• New satellite images of the buildup of Russian forces near Ukraine's borders have come out.
• The troop buildup has raised concerns that Russia may invade its neighbor as soon as early next year.
• The Biden administration has warned of "severe consequences" if Russia takes military action.

New satellite photos show the buildup of Russian armed forces at strategic locations in western Russia near the Ukrainian border and at one spot in Crimea amid concerns that Russia will invade its neighbor in the near future.

The images, which Insider obtained from Maxar Technologies, show a number of Russian tactical battle groups, including both personnel and equipment, such as tanks, artillery, and armored troop carriers, deployed to the Pogonovo training area and Yelnya in Russia and Novoozernoye in Crimea in November.

After snap drills in the spring near Ukraine triggered a few alarms, tensions de-escalated for a time. But alarm bells began ringing again when a significant number of Russian troops were observed gathering a couple hundred miles from Ukraine's border early last month.

Amid a flurry of reports on the Russian troop buildup, State Department and Pentagon officials publicly characterized Russian activity as "unusual" and expressed some concern over Russia's lack of transparency about the reasons for the troop increase.

There is more:

Satellite images show the buildup of Russian forces near Ukraine that have the US and NATO worried about an invasion (msn.com)

[Canoez]

Well, we know they already have. The question becomes will they complete the job?

[offbelayknife]

Yes, using global financial crisis for cover. Will they do it overtly though? Or with 'little green men'?

[Paul Pless]

no

they don't have to do so, nor do they want to do so
they merely want to maintain ukraine within their sphere of influence

merely being there massing on the border prevents the ukraine from gaining friends and allies
prevents them from ever being invited to join nato

its cheaper and easier to act belligerent than to actually invade and the ends are the same

[The Ranger]

When China invades Taiwan. Probably soon as they have to "mobilize the masses" to distract the masses as their economy tanks.

[skuthorp]

no

they don't have to do so, nor do they want to do so
they merely want to maintain ukraine within their sphere of influence

merely being their masses on the border prevents the ukraine from gaining friends and allies
prevents them from ever being invited to join nato

its cheaper and easier to act belligerent than to actually invade and the ends are the same

What Paul said, but brinkmanship has it's own risks, and if China moved on Taiwan……...

[JayInOz]

Someone needs to drop something very heavy from a great height on Putin. Like a piano- with trump in it

[TomF]

I think Paul's got it. This is likely about trying to ensure that Ukraine doesn't get any closer to joining NATO. Putin wants to recreate the sphere of influence of the former USSR, not least because proving his military prowess that way will distract the Russian population from domestic troubles. That is, the key audience for Russia's military posturing is IMO domestic.

[Canoeyawl]

no

they don't have to do so, nor do they want to do so
they merely want to maintain ukraine within their sphere of influence

merely being their masses on the border prevents the ukraine from gaining friends and allies
prevents them from ever being invited to join nato

its cheaper and easier to act belligerent than to actually invade and the ends are the same

So you think they learned something from Afghanistan then

If only we were as clever

[Tom Hunter]

I think Putin would like to reassemble the Soviet Union. He may invade the Ukraine, it's not clear they could fight back effectively.

We tend to underestimate how bad things can get.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

The direction of travel is clear, though.

Ask your nearest Finn, Latvian, Lithuanian or Estonian.

[Canoez]

I think Paul's got it. This is likely about trying to ensure that Ukraine doesn't get any closer to joining NATO. Putin wants to recreate the sphere of influence of the former USSR, not least because proving his military prowess that way will distract the Russian population from domestic troubles. That is, the key audience for Russia's military posturing is IMO domestic.

I'm not so certain. He's already seen that the West is unwilling to go to war over Ukraine - even after it has become painfully clear what has happened in the Donbass. I don't think he'll try to take the whole thing - what he'll do is simply take another slice and claim that Russia needs it as a "buffer" to protect it from Western aggression.

[TomF]

Difference being that several countries - Canada included - have troops either in Ukraine right now or nearby. Canada has an ongoing military mission in Ukraine training their soldiers - a friend spent a bunch of time over there recently. And we have a battle group stationed nearby too- can't remember offhand which country- exactly to help deter. As these are NATO functions, we won't be the only such folks already prepositioned.

This was intended to give Putin second thoughts about doing what he seems determined to do anyhow.

[LeeG]

I don’t think so but that’s just me picking preferred interpretations.. One thing that is undeniable is that most US news sources frame conflicts between other countries in terms implying a threat to the US or the story of the US as world manager which means we must “be strong on defense” and feed the CMIC.

[C. Ross]

The direction of travel is clear, though.

Ask your nearest Finn, Latvian, Lithuanian or Estonian.

Yes to Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. Finland seems like too much even for Putin, don’t you think?

I hope Biden doesn’t bend tomorrow. “Peace in our time” has been done.

[Jim Mahan]

And the US has just promised we'll provide cover and support for NATO partners should Russia come across the border with forces newly positioned to. And at the same time we're sending a similar message to China over Taiwan and snubbing them over sending official representatives to the Beijing Olympics to protest China's human rights violations. Tension escalates, tit for tat, on two fronts.

[Hugh MacD]

I really like JayInOz's idea....

[CWSmith]

...what he'll do is simply take another slice and claim that Russia needs it as a "buffer" to protect it from Western aggression.

Does it seem that Russia as a culture is universally paranoid? I mean, Hitler invaded Russia and regretted it. The Cold War was at least half Russia's doing (I'll admit we kept it going as well, but who wouldn't?). Nobody invades Russia. Nobody wants the place.

[P.I. Stazzer-Newt]

Yes to Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. Finland seems like too much even for Putin, don’t you think?

I hope Biden doesn’t bend tomorrow. “Peace in our time” has been done.

The Finns would like Karelia back.

[Ensio]

The Finns would like Karelia back.

Only a small minority wishes that... Soviets trashed the place with no maintenace, poor roads to really bad etc, so bringing it up to proper finnish level would be way too expensive….

[Henning 4148]

From what has been reported in the news the last years, Ukraine is deeply divided. The East of Ukraine is apparently mostly "Pro Russia" whereas the West of Ukraine is not. So, the East might welcome initiative from Russia whereas the West of the Ukraine would not.

In the last years, Ukraine has apparently not managed to overcome this split. Which can now be a risk for maintaining Ukraine as one state.

[Tom Hunter]

Putin may be looking at the Ukrainian drone deal with Turkey and thinking that he will lose military advantage over time. The Turks have used drones to smash Putin's allies in Syria and then in Armenia. War is changing in ways that look bad for armies that depend on a lot of tanks and mobile artillery. The US has barely noticed because we have not been blown up yet, but the Russians have noticed because their stuff (but not their troops) got hammered into scrap.

Turkey is resurgent, and making a play for natural resources in its region. The Turks are arming Ukraine. Would Turkey gain power if Russia started a war that went on for a long time or cost a lot?

When considering the situation it's worth remembering that this is not just a Russia Nato conflict.

[John Smith]

I'd like to ask all the 'Monday morning quarterbacks' who complained about withdrawal from Afghanistan, how they would handle this situation. What do they believe is the right thing to do?

[skuthorp]

I note the proximity to Dec. 7.

I wonder if Vlad, or Xi do?

[George.]

And the US has just promised we'll provide cover and support for NATO partners should Russia come across the border with forces newly positioned to. And at the same time we're sending a similar message to China over Taiwan and snubbing them over sending official representatives to the Beijing Olympics to protest China's human rights violations. Tension escalates, tit for tat, on two fronts.

Do you think this is a good time for Israel to bomb Iran's centrifuges?

[P.I. Stazzer-Newt]

Or Iran to demolish Israel's..

[willmarsh3]

This might explain part of the motivation Putin has for invading Ukraine or keeping it in a state of turmoil. This is from the standpoint of how well Russia can protect itself from foreign invaders.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

This is becoming a very interesting thread.

I think that Biden is patching up the holes in the US defence posture that were knocked into it over four years by a lazy and careless President who could not be bothered to learn the subject and who treated it as a series of photo ops.

Biden understands this subject very well and has been at home in it for decades, but the damage done by the idleness and irresponsibility of Trump has been considerable.

[Tom Hunter]

Digging into this a little deeper. The cease fire agreement includes a provision that says neither side will use foreign drones in the combat area. On October 26th some Russian (or east Ukranian) artillery opened fire and killed a Ukranian soldier. The Ukranians responded with a drone strike on one of the guns. "after that, the shelling stopped."

Then Ukraine put a video of the strike on facebook. The guys manning the gun are lucky, they live, and all run away.

It's a big change when you have been able to fire artillery into your neighbors with impunity, and suddenly they can stop you.

[Canoez]

Digging into this a little deeper. The cease fire agreement includes a provision that says neither side will use foreign drones in the combat area. On October 26th some Russian (or east Ukranian) artillery opened fire and killed a Ukranian soldier. The Ukranians responded with a drone strike on one of the guns. "after that, the shelling stopped."

Then Ukraine put a video of the strike on facebook. The guys manning the gun are lucky, they live, and all run away.

It's a big change when you have been able to fire artillery into your neighbors with impunity, and suddenly they can stop you.

Also begs the question if Ukraine has the technical sophistication to make home-grown drones in addition to the Turkish ones.

[lupussonic]

The Crimea / Sevastopol is Russia's military power base that allows it's projection into Syria and the ME, and beyond. It is an area that has long been disputed between Russia and the Ukraine. It is presently surrounded by the Ukraine, a fact which is useful to remember in a discussion such as this.

[CWSmith]

I think that Biden is patching up the holes in the US defence posture that were knocked into it over four years by a lazy and careless President who could not be bothered to learn the subject and who treated it as a series of photo ops.

You imply it was an accident and not deliberate. I think Trump was bought and paid for.

[offbelayknife]

Allegedly the NDAA renewal under consideration doesn't include any new sanctions for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

[johnw]

This might explain part of the motivation Putin has for invading Ukraine or keeping it in a state of turmoil. This is from the standpoint of how well Russia can protect itself from foreign invaders.

I'm sure that's how Putin sees things, but there are a couple things wrong with this. Russia had the option of turning toward Europe, and could itself have become part of NATO had they been willing to function like a normal European country.

And, the only nation to go on Russian soil and kill Russian soldiers since WW II would be China in 1969, wouldn't it? So why is Russia mainly worried about Europe?

[lupussonic]

Putin needs a threat to remain credible and macho.

He'd have zero chance against China, and besides they supposedly share an ideology.

There is also the hurt of the break up of the USSR and the loss of many provinces to European style democracies. Pride as usual.