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Thread: Trump is winning today

  1. #1
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    Default Trump is winning today

    Today Trump wins with his nomination Judge Amy Coney Barrett's place on the Supreme Court. It is a win for conservatives who believe in the rights of the corporation, the protections of unborn and reinforces the established conservative social engineering tools with the highest legal tools.

    With Trumps win and his energy to go out and hold public rallies without fear, it may play itself forward in a minor swell with just enough to secure a national electoral win in 7 days with conservative groups, Christians and others who do not like the direction the country that the liberal media has been pushing. The Barrett placement could be the difference between Trumps election and likely court case. This might be the best political play Trump has done as President.

    As unlikely as it is, those Republicans who defied Trump this week may pay for it with his continued end of year winning streak.
    Last edited by Ted Hoppe; 10-26-2020 at 11:41 AM.

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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    c&p source?

    This might be the best political play... or it might be a huge miscalculation, as cultural conservatives (as distinct from trump-cultists) could decide that with Barrett on the bench the scales have tipped far enough in their favor that they no longer need to tolerate trump's antics.
    whoa, camel. WHOA CAMEL!

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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    Quote Originally Posted by Figment View Post
    c&p source?

    This might be the best political play... or it might be a huge miscalculation, as cultural conservatives (as distinct from trump-cultists) could decide that with Barrett on the bench they've tipped the scales far enough in their favor that they no longer need to tolerate trump's antics.
    It is an opinion considering the dynamics. We would be foolish not to see this. The overconfidence of 2016 of Clinton supporters and voters who think the country is going in the wrong direction have not gone away and in fact have hardened. They are going to show up at the polls in numbers equal to those that came in 2016.

    Added to this win - there is this: https://www.economist.com/united-sta...would-he-do-it
    Around this time four years ago, on October 28th 2016, the then director of the fbi, James Comey, announced the discovery of new emails that might be pertinent to his investigation into Hillary Clinton. Her polling lead in mid-October had been almost as big as Joe Biden’s is now. Twelve days later she was giving a concession speech. Election day is closer than it was when Mr Comey made his intervention—quirks of the calendar mean this year’s falls on November 3rd rather than November 8th, which is when Donald Trump won four years ago. So Mr Trump is running out of time to catch up. Still, that recent precedent has Americans wondering what they might be overlooking this time.

    Mr Biden holds a large polling lead: The Economist’s forecast accordingly gives him a comfortable 92% chance of victory. In the 8% of our simulations where the president wins the electoral college, Mr Trump’s route to victory is almost identical to the path he took in 2016. If he wins his adopted home state of Florida, holds states he won handily—including Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina and Texas—then Pennsylvania and either Michigan or Wisconsin, both of which he won last time, would put him over the top. Polls suggest that path is unlikely, but polls underestimated Mr Trump’s strength in battleground states four years ago.
    Last edited by Ted Hoppe; 10-26-2020 at 11:50 AM.

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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    proof-positive - hope springs eternal.

    The curious thing - that you consider 'trump' and 'winning' in the same sentence.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    Thus illustrating, once again, why I have ceased attempting to converse on matters of substance with certain Bilge Rats.

    Meantime... tRump's big play seems to have fizzled ---

    Trump Had One Last Story to Sell. The Wall Street Journal Wouldn't Buy It.

    https://news.yahoo.com/trump-had-one-last-story-115253037.html


    Since that hasn't gained any traction, it appears that he's now attempting to plump a narrative of 'Biden (with Obama) had 8 years in office, and he didn't do all those things he now claims he'll do'.

    Unfortunately... that walks his own record into the spotlight. All the promises he made when running compared to what he actually accomplished.

    And, of course, it ignores the amazing levels of stonewalling and obstruction from a R senate. Merrick Garland would be emblematic, but there are a plentitude of examples.

    It's a simple narrative tRump is selling, even if incorrect. But most of the folks who are easily confused by a story that's incorrect but simple to comprehend... are already dedicated tRump voters. He needs to flip some of the same people who flipped last time. And there's no sign that's he's doing that in significant numbers. Despite the speculative claptrap being floated in a scattershot of direction by his apologists and mouthpieces.
    David G
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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    certain Bilge Rats.
    might you provide us a list of the unworthy?

    just for ****s&grins. . .
    Simpler is better, except when complicated looks really cool.

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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    Elect a impeached but no trial president again elect a president who lied about the virus and lied just yesterday. This is not 2016

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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    I know many of you dislike Trump as do I but the fact is he won this week and with the vote on his Supreme Court Justice he is on a roll.

    I left my bubble last week and was surfing in San Diego. They were not wearing masks down south and many have Trump signs in their yard. Many do not want Biden/Harris. No matter how much you think this election is a forgone conclusion - it ain't.

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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    Now that the religious conservatives have gotten what they wanted from him (ACB + 2), they may stop holding their noses and realize that it is no longer necessary to tolerate his liabilities. The useful idiot may have outlived his usefulness.

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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    It's not a foregone conclusion, not at all. But despite what they're doing in San Diego, Trump has as much chance of winning California as he does of getting me to vote for him - and I already voted.

    I think you very much overestimate the effect of Ms Barrett's (probable) confirmation. The True Believers will be pleased, but they were going to vote for him anyway. The Democrats will be enraged, but they were going to vote for Biden anyway. The one very consistent thing about this election has been the consistency of the polls; thay have changed very little, either nationally or in the swing states, for six months. (LOTS of data here.)

    And here's how it's looking right now. Things could work out differently, of course; none of us are very good at predicting the future.


    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

    Richard Feynman

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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    We are raised to be compassionate and forgiving. For many of us, it is fundamental to our beliefs.

    The hardest lesson to learn is that some adults need to suffer the consequences of their decisions in order to learn from their mistakes. You would have thought that electing W taught them the necessary lessons, but it did not. Putting Barrett on the Supreme Court will cause widespread pain that may finally wake up the non-voters. Or not. We can't change them. We can only watch and wait. The sad truth is that many innocent people will suffer because of this and that cannot be changed.

    As Will Rogers said, “There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves.”

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    Default Re: Trump is whining today

    Dingle away.
    We're merely mammals. Let's misbehave! —Cole Porter

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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Pless View Post
    might you provide us a list of the unworthy?

    just for ****s&grins. . .
    Unworthy is an insufficiently robust word. But sure... what's your mailing address?
    David G
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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    Trump gets creamed in this election.

    Biden 70,000,000 votes

    Trump 61,800,000 votes

    You heard it here first

    Jeff C

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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    Unworthy is an insufficiently robust word. But sure... what's your mailing address?
    a picture is worth a thousand words.

    Screen Shot 2020-10-26 at 11.16.14 AM.jpg

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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    Ted, Trump might benefit from the new SC judge but it is McConnell's win, not Trump's.
    Trump was the useful idiot that McConnell used to fulfill his lifelong dream of cursing this country with a radical right wing court (and federal courts) for years to come.
    McConnell will go down as a hero in conservative lore but an absolute demon in the minds of anyone with progressive, forward thinking ideals.
    I was born on a wooden boat that I built myself.

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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    I don't really care HOW he goes down, just so long as he goes down soon.
    whoa, camel. WHOA CAMEL!

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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    Yeah, there’s totally people motivated by ACB who weren’t going to vote for Trump

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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    Quote Originally Posted by Ted Hoppe View Post
    I know many of you dislike Trump as do I but the fact is he won this week and with the vote on his Supreme Court Justice he is on a roll.

    If ramming through a supreme court justice 8 days before a presidential election is 'on a roll' then...whatever.

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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    It's a pyrrhic victory; Barrett's confirmation to SCOTUS will put fire under Biden's commitment to convene a commission with a mandate to make recommendations for a full-on restructuring of the courts within the year. Barrett will be there unless she's stupid enough to do something impeachable (which I doubt), but will have a bunch more company on that bench. And I suspect a significant change in the structure and personnel on the Federal courts to which McConnell's been directing so much of his attention these past 4 years.

    That is, I think that Biden's signature legacy - with both Houses of Congress in Dem hands - will be thorough and far-reaching program to both restore the perception (as well as the fact) of integrity to the judiciary. Probably by expanding the SCOTUS, creating retirement ages for all Federally appointed judges, and making provisions for a minimum and maximum proportion of the bench which any individual administration can appoint. In addition to tightening up anti-corruption measures to make the post-Watergate reforms effective in the face of a future Trumpian threat.

    If he can do that, while also gradually bringing COVID response into some form of a sound emergency management process, those things together will restore a bunch of consumer and investor confidence, and contribute to a jump-started economy.

    What Trump doesn't realize quite - though McConnell surely does - is the degree to which Trump's own vandalism will be the catalyst for a kind of renewal of and recommitment to (l)iberal values American public life of the type which his jihad had despised.
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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Lesser View Post
    Now that the religious conservatives have gotten what they wanted from him (ACB + 2), they may stop holding their noses and realize that it is no longer necessary to tolerate his liabilities. The useful idiot may have outlived his usefulness.
    That is my hope. Outside those true believers who think God chose Donald to usher in End Times there are enough Republicans who believe in competence and the nation’s and their children’s future to not want Donald to continue on the chaos train to the next national challenge.

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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    Tom - I like it. If the Dems can focus and unite enough to pull it off. I might call it ever so slightly leaning toward the 'wishful thinking' side of things. But I hope not.

    One small quibble. ACB has already done a couple of things that fit your 'something impeachable' rubric. Can we say instead, 'something impeachment-conviction worthy'?
    Last edited by David G; 10-26-2020 at 03:25 PM.
    David G
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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    Quote Originally Posted by leikec View Post
    Trump gets creamed in this election.

    Biden 70,000,000 votes

    Trump 61,800,000 votes

    You heard it here first

    Jeff C
    While that would be good compare that to the 1972 Nixon landslide.

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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Jones View Post
    Ted, Trump might benefit from the new SC judge but it is McConnell's win, not Trump's.
    Trump was the useful idiot that McConnell used to fulfill his lifelong dream of cursing this country with a radical right wing court (and federal courts) for years to come.
    McConnell will go down as a hero in conservative lore but an absolute demon in the minds of anyone with progressive, forward thinking ideals.
    No doubt McConnell delivered Barrett to the supreme court. McConnell has shown his mastery of the Senate and deserves these accolades. We can not take this away from him - his political thumb print will last for at least 50 years. McConnell will allow Trump this week's celebratory political parade as it makes good theater and raised much need dollars. If Trump's election coats holds, uses it and wins the electoral college again, imagine how much more McConnell can do with the useful orange idiot sitting in the white house. If Trump keeps the Senate close and keeps a slim majority, McConnell could continue his marks and surpress the progressive ideology that a few liberal congressional democrats have in their bellies thereby kicking universal healthcare, climate change and real immigration reform from coming to the floor for another 4 plus years.

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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    Exactly how is Trump "winning today" with the DOW down 600 points?

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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    Tom - I like it. If the Dems can focus and unite enough to pull it off. I might call it ever so slightly leaning toward the 'wishful thinking' side of things. But I hope not.

    One small quibble. ACB has already done a couple of things that fit your 'something impeachable' rubric. Can we say instead, 'something impeachment-conviction worthy'?
    He's gonna get at least part of that; has already been very clear about the judicial reform commission and their timeline for forwarding a report with recommendations. That, and the corruption reforms, can happen within the first 2 years - and there'll be an enormous effort to do exactly that before a neo-Trumpist Republican Senate or House could potentially arise in the mid-terms and scuttle it.

    What will need to happen, of course, is that Dems stay united about the notion of first repairing the fabric of the Constitutional institutions which could not more adequately resist an administration which the Founders would have reviled. I think that they will, but the progressives will peel off if they don't see actual movement on Green New Deal issues or expanded health care prior to the end of Biden's 4 years.

    The battle will be 2024, when Biden will be stepping down and the Trumpists will try to capitalize on fractiousness within the Dems.
    Last edited by TomF; 10-26-2020 at 04:00 PM.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    I think there's a solid chance that Trump will be found to have gained office through foreign interference.

    If this happens, NONE of his appointments are legitimate.
    Rattling the teacups.

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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    Meanwhile Trafalgar is floating the idea that the tRump 'shy voter' will again hand the victory to the Mango Mussolini. Others disagree. Sounds like 'whistling past the graveyard' to me --

    2020 polls: The Trump ‘hidden voter’ isn’t a real threat this election - here’s why

    Pollster Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group calls it “the social desirability bias theory.” This posits that “when dealing with a live caller, the person being asked the questions will craft their answer in a way that puts them in the best light of the person asking the question.” Since Trump is generally loathed and viewed as a racist by half the public (with another 13 per cent saying they’re “not sure), many presumably would rather not say they’re actually voting for him.

    But the evidence that the shy Trump voter exists enough to skew polls is highly debatable. Forget the MAGA hats and rallies, just look at other indicators of partisan support this cycle compared with 2016. Then, the best indicator that Hillary Clinton was actually not a favorite - never mind a prohibitive one - was the movement in House races. And no one suggests this “shyness” extends to them...........

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b1351300.html
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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    ^ Robert Cahaly, senior strategist for the Trafalgar Group, made a name for himself in 2016 by being the only pollster to correctly show Donald Trump with a lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania -- two key states he carried -- heading into Election Day. (He did not poll Wisconsin, another surprising win for Trump.) Cahaly also showed Trump ahead in North Carolina and Florida, both of which he won, securing his improbable 304-227 Electoral College victory over Hillary Clinton. Cahaly managed to pick up support for Trump that all other pollsters missed by employing a unique method that sought to measure support from voters who'd been “inactive” in recent election cycles, as well as adding a question to his surveys designed to isolate the effect of social desirability bias among Trump voters – the concept that people won’t tell pollsters their true intentions for fear of being stigmatized or being politically incorrect.

    After asking voters who they were supporting in 2016, the pollster followed up by asking them who they thought their neighbors were supporting, Trump or Clinton. Cahaly consistently found a high degree of variance between who respondents said they were voting for and who they thought their neighbors were voting for, suggesting there was in fact a “shy Trump effect” at play.

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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    All I can say: "Be careful what you wish for". With the nomination and probably seating of ACB into the Supreme Court, and it's eventual undoing of Roe vs Wade. Some Republicans just lost the only reason people vote for them.
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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    Bobulinski , their ‘Smoking Gun’ is that there’s a guy who worked with Hunter who says Joe Biden was indirectly involved in a potential business deal that may or may not have gone through, after he stopped being VP, and that this is proof of corruption while in office...somehow...

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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    Quote Originally Posted by Art Haberland View Post
    [...] With the nomination and probably seating of ACB into the Supreme Court, [...]
    Snip.

    Please don't called her "ACB" as that appears to put her on an equal footing as the late Justice Ginsburg - RBG - but rather Amy Boney Carrot, or Justice Carrot.
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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    Quote Originally Posted by Duncan Gibbs View Post
    Snip.

    Please don't called her "ACB" as that appears to put her on an equal footing as the late Justice Ginsburg - RBG - but rather Amy Boney Carrot, or Justice Carrot.
    Forget Ginsburg, think of Andrew!

    Rattling the teacups.

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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    Quote Originally Posted by Duncan Gibbs View Post
    Snip.

    Please don't called her "ACB" as that appears to put her on an equal footing as the late Justice Ginsburg - RBG - but rather Amy Boney Carrot, or Justice Carrot.

    Amy Covid Barrett.

    Her legacy will forever be that of a religious zealot, nominated by a corrupt and impeached president, and approved by a norms breaching, hypocritical process in the Senate.

    Ted Hoppe, why don't you just come out and say that you will vote for him? You have fluffed him enough here. Is not the overt racism is a deal breaker for you?
    Steve Martinsen

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    Default Re: Trump is winning today

    She's just been confirmed. A pox on them
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