So, if Trump refuses to leave and nobody actually makes him...

[TomF]

What does it look like to live in a post-Constitutional-Republic society? What's so different say, in Hungary or Poland, or the Philippines, now that there really isn't much question about it being authoritarian? Same with Russia.

I mean, Russians still go to work, make stuff in factories, drive cars around. Lots of Russian young women making a living on the internet it would seem. Putin doesn't necessarily go around killing them all at random.

Saudi Arabia's an authoritarian regime of a different stripe - but most of the citizens there just go about their lives. They're not always ending up getting tortured in awful prisons, but instead probably work in their businesses, look after their families, and die of old age. The same's true of Iran. And China.

There's a big part of American society that will just carry on as normal, if your Republic dies. And your trading relationships with the rest of the world will carry on just like China's or Saudi Arabia's do, except with a bit more graft than before. A bit less safety in working conditions, or responsiveness to environmental disasters etc. But y'know, even Chernobyl was sorta managed by the Russians when they were the USSR, and is still, sorta.

How would your life be different as an average American citizen, if you do transition into authoritarianism? Would it really matter if you no longer got a meaningful voice in your own government - considering that across history most citizens have never had one?

[Figment]

Tempest in a teapot.

Just cut off his cable TV, he'll be out in 20 minutes.

[Canoez]

I'm thinking that we can turn the White House into an oubliette.

[Corvida]

I'm not allowed to revolt against an authoritarian coup until my kids are self sufficient. So what I'd do would depend on how my kids are doing.

[TomF]

I'm mostly serious in this thought experiment. I figure that it's the idea of the glorious Constitution that has the most power for most people - do any of your neighbours, or the folks living within a 10 mile radius of you, actually regularly and meaningfully exercise all those rights and freedoms? Would they miss it much in terms of how their lives actually ran if one day they didn't have the Washington Post anymore? If they still got weather forecasts, sports scores, and updates on Kardashian gender-changing?

[Canoez]

I'm mostly serious in this thought experiment. I figure that it's the idea of the glorious Constitution that has the most power for most people - do any of your neighbours, or the folks living within a 10 mile radius of you, actually regularly and meaningfully exercise all those rights and freedoms? Would they miss it much in terms of how their lives actually ran if one day they didn't have the Washington Post anymore? If they still got weather forecasts, sports scores, and updates on Kardashian gender-changing?

Realistically, I think it depends on the individual's perspective. Some Trump followers would be more than happy to go down that road so long as they get to "crush the libs" and have their perspective on various hot-button issues pushed. Those who oppose the current political direction will not follow willingly. I think right now, we see a lot of citizens who are exercising those rights and freedoms with protest of various forms and on various topics. Any attempt by the current administration to stay in power under questionable circumstances will likely cause a tear in the social and political fabric of the nation.

[Tom Montgomery]

.
Seriously? If Trump loses the election but refuses to concede and relinquish his office to the winner, I would expect the Secret Service and/or the U.S. Military would honor their oath to defend the U.S. Constitution against all enemies, both foreign and domestic, and forcibly remove him from the White House.

If that did not happen I would not expect Trump to survive three months. Some patriot would take him out. And then Katie bar the door.
.

[sleek]

Listen, even if Hillary won, and Trump refused to leave, id be in line to remove him as well. Cant have a constitutional crisis just because he is republican. Anything he does, creates a precedence to be used later and I dont want that.

[TomF]

I'm starting to wonder.

Was listening to another interview with Anne Applebaum on CBC's program "Ideas" (Download The Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism: Anne Applebaum), and she speaks from personal experience as a writer and historian living mostly in Poland (she married a Polish man), but who has forever had deep connections with folks in a variety of countries who used to be center-Right political types. Journalists, academics, minor-level politicians, diplomats etc.

Applebaum describes how her friends from post-communist Poland and Hungary and etc. had been anti-communists, had been advocates of representative Democracy and liberal trading policies ... but typically slid away from those commitments after being disappointed. Whether disappointed personally (didn't get as powerful/rich as desired), or in the speed or trajectory of post-communist social and economic growth, or etc. But typically, disappointment justified a slide away from freedoms. Towards some kind of nostalgic nationalism cum authoritarianism.

Applebaum's very clear that it isn't only the Right that flirts with authoritarianism - she's written some books about the Gulag and other Communist horrors - but it is the Right flirting with it now. And flirting, she suggests, because it promises some relief from the chaos of democracies' competition among viewpoints. Because the order it imposes is stable, is predictable. Provides a grounding for folks to get on with their lives knowing the rules.

I really wonder if Americans (or Canadians!) are so different that we wouldn't want the same, if our own democratic systems became too chaotic..

[Keith Wilson]

If he really refused to leave, it would be an attempted coup. The determining factor in most coup attempts is the loyalty of the armed forces. I would guess that the US military, with its very, very long tradition of staying out of politics, would not take kindly to someone trying to overturn an election and usurp power.

[TomF]

Trump's speaking right now about pretty much these issues of nostalgic nationalism. About statues, about national patriotic education curricula, etc. It frankly sounds Maoist.

[Peerie Maa]

What does it look like to live in a post-Constitutional-Republic society? What's so different say, in Hungary or Poland, or the Philippines, now that there really isn't much question about it being authoritarian? Same with Russia.

I mean, Russians still go to work, make stuff in factories, drive cars around. Lots of Russian young women making a living on the internet it would seem. Putin doesn't necessarily go around killing them all at random.

Saudi Arabia's an authoritarian regime of a different stripe - but most of the citizens there just go about their lives. They're not always ending up getting tortured in awful prisons, but instead probably work in their businesses, look after their families, and die of old age. The same's true of Iran. And China.

There's a big part of American society that will just carry on as normal, if your Republic dies. And your trading relationships with the rest of the world will carry on just like China's or Saudi Arabia's do, except with a bit more graft than before. A bit less safety in working conditions, or responsiveness to environmental disasters etc. But y'know, even Chernobyl was sorta managed by the Russians when they were the USSR, and is still, sorta.

How would your life be different as an average American citizen, if you do transition into authoritarianism? Would it really matter if you no longer got a meaningful voice in your own government - considering that across history most citizens have never had one?

An argument founded on sand.
The US has had 200 years of a sort of democracy. Neither Russian nor Saudi citizens have any history nor experience of any sort of democracy.

That said do US citizens now have any "meaningful voice in your own government", You did when you went mad and put through Prohibition, and probably for some time after that, until big money got in the way.
Still, it is true that the average putz will be fat dumb and happy if he is left alone to live a fairly comfortable existence, and so will not care who is in charge as long s whoever is in charge leaves him and his alone. The real question is how many utilities like roads police water and medicine have to go to rats before it does impact on the comfort of your average putz.

[TomF]

Not founded on sand, I think.

The argument from the 1980s literature about how to promote a "transition to Democracy" in then authoritarian states was that institutions of civil society were critical. The strength, for instance, of an independent press and academic community. The commitment among citizens to become informed and politically active, and some clear and consistent methods to do so. A shared set of factual bases to understand their history, and the present state of things.

The parallel academic literature in the past 10 years or so has been about the reverse - about how democratic societies can be enabled to slip into authoritarianism. And typically, the way to slide down that slope is by weakening those same institutions of civil society. Casting doubt upon them, eroding public trust in them.

While I think that American civil society institutions are indeed robust, they've been under unprecedented attack. I'm not confident that there will be any resumption of trust in a shared set of facts presented by an even somewhat apolitical press for at least a decade. I'm not confident that the courts are going to be capable of offering impartial justice, with all the ideological appointments. I'm not confident that any set of conservative politicians elected from current offerings would act differently in the face of another impeachment proceeding than they did this time - declining to hear evidence, while in private having actually collected damning evidence in their own intelligence committee proceedings.

I think that we adjudicate ongoing robustness to America's institutions of civil society at our peril. It doesn't matter what folks in the DoJ did in Nixon's time, or how the Senate ultimately rebuked McCarthyism. Those Senators, largely, are now dead.

[oznabrag]

What does it look like to live in a post-Constitutional-Republic society? What's so different say, in Hungary or Poland, or the Philippines, now that there really isn't much question about it being authoritarian? Same with Russia.

I mean, Russians still go to work, make stuff in factories, drive cars around. Lots of Russian young women making a living on the internet it would seem. Putin doesn't necessarily go around killing them all at random.

Saudi Arabia's an authoritarian regime of a different stripe - but most of the citizens there just go about their lives. They're not always ending up getting tortured in awful prisons, but instead probably work in their businesses, look after their families, and die of old age. The same's true of Iran. And China.

There's a big part of American society that will just carry on as normal, if your Republic dies. And your trading relationships with the rest of the world will carry on just like China's or Saudi Arabia's do, except with a bit more graft than before. A bit less safety in working conditions, or responsiveness to environmental disasters etc. But y'know, even Chernobyl was sorta managed by the Russians when they were the USSR, and is still, sorta.

How would your life be different as an average American citizen, if you do transition into authoritarianism? Would it really matter if you no longer got a meaningful voice in your own government - considering that across history most citizens have never had one?

Which is what venal grackle means when he says 'you'll be fine!'

[icyb]

Al Gore was asked this question yesterday. He said tRump will have no choice but to leave. And he woudn't put nothing past tRump.

[Nicholas Scheuer]

Trump won't have any power after he loses. Sure, he'll have a security detail, but the Secret Service Administration will be reporting to the lawful POTUS. The military will support the lawful Administration, unless they want to become a renegade unit of company of battalion level. A company of loyal American troops can and may carry Trumps belongings out of the WH and load it into trucks bound for Trump Tower in NYC. If Trump nor Melania won't walk out of the WH peacefully, loyal Military Police can handcuff them hand and foot and carry them out to a limo bound for Trump Tower in NYC. The head of the Secret Service will insure that Trump's detail understands that while they must protect their official assignment, they are to do nothing disloyal to the legal Administration. When he loses, Trump's power ENDS on the steps of the Capital during Biden's swearing-in.

[TomF]

Presuming that the ballots are counted fairly enough, and early enough, that the result is unambiguous. There's still 3 months after November 3 for him to jimmy the result, and during that period he's still POTUS.

[Tom Montgomery]

Trump won't have any power after he loses. Sure, he'll have a security detail, but the Secret Service Administration will be reporting to the lawful POTUS. The military will support the lawful Administration, unless they want to become a renegade unit of company of battalion level. A company of loyal American troops can and may carry Trumps belongings out of the WH and load it into trucks bound for Trump Tower in NYC. If Trump nor Melania won't walk out of the WH peacefully, loyal Military Police can handcuff them hand and foot and carry them out to a limo bound for Trump Tower in NYC. The head of the Secret Service will insure that Trump's detail understands that while they must protect their official assignment, they are to do nothing disloyal to the legal Administration. When he loses, Trump's power ENDS on the steps of the Capital during Biden's swearing-in.

^
This. But I put nothing past Trump. It may well come to this.

[Canoeyawl]

We would just take out Bill Barr and Trump won't have leg to stand on...

Can you just imagine those two fat f****s refusing to leave?

[Osborne Russell]

Capitalism to the rescue. The value of investments is way too high for the business world to just stand and watch. They'll take him out quickly and efficiently.

[pcford]

I just want to know why Trump sits in a chair like he's honking out a dirtsnake. Anybody?

[Keith Wilson]

Capitalism to the rescue. The value of investments is way too high for the business world to just stand and watch. They'll take him out quickly and efficiently.

Good point. At least he'd get very little support from that quarter, and much opposition. Too much chaos is very bad for business..

[CWSmith]

Tempest in a teapot.

Just cut off his cable TV, he'll be out in 20 minutes.

No, cut off his internet. Without access to his Twitter account, he will be starved of attention.

On the subject of the thread, I still believe that the leaders of our military and our agencies (Secret Service, etc.) are true patriots. They will follow the constitution whether they like the choice or not. He will leave.

The bigger and more realistic question is, "What chaos will he inspire on his way out? Will he encourage his followers to take to the street? Will liberal politicians be safe from inspired retribution? Will minorities be safe? Will there be violence at the polling place?"

[Gerarddm]

O but they WILL make him, so your OP point is moot.

Who is they? Well take your pick: the Secret Service, at the order of President Biden; or the Capitol Police, at the order of Nancy Pelosi; or perhaps the FBI. The military? No, not their job.

[S/V Laura Ellen]

Why can't the house bring new charges for impeachment against Trump.
Force the Senate to spend the next 60 days defending the Orange Menace.
Now is the time to have each GOP senator plastered on the news stating that there are no grounds to remove Trump from office.
Not only should Trump be removed from office, every GOP house rep and senator should also be removed.
They should also let Pence know that they have impeachment charges ready for him also.
Abnormal times require an abnormal response.

Really, WTF.
Is the American populace really OK with what the GOP is doing to the country?

[John Smith]

What does it look like to live in a post-Constitutional-Republic society? What's so different say, in Hungary or Poland, or the Philippines, now that there really isn't much question about it being authoritarian? Same with Russia.

I mean, Russians still go to work, make stuff in factories, drive cars around. Lots of Russian young women making a living on the internet it would seem. Putin doesn't necessarily go around killing them all at random.

Saudi Arabia's an authoritarian regime of a different stripe - but most of the citizens there just go about their lives. They're not always ending up getting tortured in awful prisons, but instead probably work in their businesses, look after their families, and die of old age. The same's true of Iran. And China.

There's a big part of American society that will just carry on as normal, if your Republic dies. And your trading relationships with the rest of the world will carry on just like China's or Saudi Arabia's do, except with a bit more graft than before. A bit less safety in working conditions, or responsiveness to environmental disasters etc. But y'know, even Chernobyl was sorta managed by the Russians when they were the USSR, and is still, sorta.

How would your life be different as an average American citizen, if you do transition into authoritarianism? Would it really matter if you no longer got a meaningful voice in your own government - considering that across history most citizens have never had one?

I'd guess it depends upon your skin color.

[John Smith]

I'm mostly serious in this thought experiment. I figure that it's the idea of the glorious Constitution that has the most power for most people - do any of your neighbours, or the folks living within a 10 mile radius of you, actually regularly and meaningfully exercise all those rights and freedoms? Would they miss it much in terms of how their lives actually ran if one day they didn't have the Washington Post anymore? If they still got weather forecasts, sports scores, and updates on Kardashian gender-changing?

But could we believe the weather reports? Would they tell us where the storm is headed or where the president wanted them to tell us it's heading.

[Art Haberland]

Just remember, the President only has the power given him. Once he loses and a new President is sworn in, nobody has to listen to a word he says and very few will willing do so. Nobody wants to go to prison for a powerless madman

[sleek]

I recall this type of conversation happening every election year, from both parties. Not that its bad to think about, i just dont think it needs to be worked about

[oznabrag]

I recall this type of conversation happening every election year, from both parties. Not that its bad to think about, i just dont think it needs to be worked about

Yeah.

[WI-Tom]

I think the OP is dead on--a very plausible scenario. What in the world would make anyone confident that it WON'T happen?

43% or more actually WANT Trump to stay in office, no matter what.

Of the other 57%, how many will care enough to try to do something? And of those, how many have any power to ACTUALLY do something?

Our bread and circuses are awfully good these days in the U.S. I'm not confident at all what would happen if Trump manages to mess up the election enough to muddle the interpretation of results. He certainly is in open defiance of the rule of law in MANY other ways right now, and no one has been able to hold him accountable.

Tom

[C. Ross]

I think Trump makes everyone miserable, with the DOJ supporting him, until the electoral college convenes. If enough states withhold their electoral votes so Biden doesn’t get a majority, then it goes to the House and Trump is re-elected.

Short of that, we live through hell until December 14. Then I think he simply leaves DC for Mar-a-lago in a furious rage before the inauguration. He holds rallies for a couple of months and pretends to be a government in exile. Some guys march around in camo with automatic weapons. Maybe a few people get shot. It eventually peters out when the Trump children fail in the 2024 Republican primaries.

[skuthorp]

I think Trump makes everyone miserable, with the DOJ supporting him, until the electoral college convenes. If enough states withhold their electoral votes so Biden doesn’t get a majority, then it goes to the House and Trump is re-elected.

Short of that, we live through hell until December 14. Then I think he simply leaves DC for Mar-a-lago in a furious rage before the inauguration. He holds rallies for a couple of months and pretends to be a government in exile. Some guys march around in camo with automatic weapons. Maybe a few people get shot. It eventually peters out when the Trump children fail in the 2024 Republican primaries.

As I suspected, the electoral system is rigged by design. Gerrymander by NOT voting, thus disenfranchising a whole states voters? And that's not a criminal act? On top of rigged districts as well? No wonder you elect a President and get a King.

[C. Ross]

As I suspected, the electoral system is rigged by design. Gerrymander by NOT voting, thus disenfranchising a whole states voters? And that's not a criminal act? On top of rigged districts as well? No wonder you elect a President and get a King.

No, that’s quite overblown. The Constitution was written at a time when balance between state and national governments was paramount. In that context the mechanism in article 2, section 2 of the Constitution is quite logical.

That section was added to the Constitution by the 12th Amendment in 1804. It was ratified because of the controversial election of 1800, which elected Thomas Jefferson over John Adams.

John Quincy Adams was elected president by the House in this way in 1824.

The electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for two persons, of whom one at least shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves. And they shall make a list of all the persons voted for, and of the number of votes for each; which list they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate. The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates, and the votes shall then be counted. The person having the greatest number of votes shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of electors appointed; and if there be more than one who have such majority, and have an equal number of votes, then the House of Representatives shall immediately choose by ballot one of them for President; and if no person have a majority, then from the five highest on the list the said House shall in like manner choose the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by States, the representation from each state having one vote; A quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice. In every case, after the choice of the President, the person having the greatest number of votes of the electors shall be the Vice President. But if there should remain two or more who have equal votes, the Senate shall choose from them by ballot the Vice President.

[skuthorp]

Stitch up.