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Thread: Presidential Polling Update

  1. #106
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    I think it depends on whether the party continues with nativism as a central principle. There's also an age-cohort effect; older Hispanic folks are more conservative, but fewer very day. This isn't unique to Hispanics by any means, but there might be a finite time window for Republicans to repudiate Trumpism and get conservative Hispanic voters back.
    I do agree with this. There is certainly a time-window. It would have to happen now. If the GOP sticks with an strong anti-immigration stance post-Trump, the opportunity will be lost. I am by no means predicting the GOP will come to its senses in any way, shape, or form. But if the party gets beat bad in November and it decides it needs a reset, a purging of Trump's influence, it has an opportunity. Thats the best I can say.

  2. #107
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    How can 42% of the population still vote for the Orange Menace?
    I don't get it!
    Allan of the Grove
    "never send a ferret to do a weasel's job.."

  3. #108
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Again, we are talking about Trump as the candidate. I have no doubt that a large hispanic turnout would tip the state to Biden. The race is very close in Texas. But in general, you will not be able to assume a 10% increase in hispanic voters in this state will be predominantly democratic voters.
    I take your point, but I think where your line of thinking perhaps may be suspect is that a large increase in Hispanic votes (over and above 2016, not due to normal population growth) would mainly be younger voters, who I would bet would be much more liberal than their parents.

    A friend of mine, who is extremely active in Texas politics, thinks it may be possible for Biden to win 65% or more of Texas Hispanic voters this year, which would be a slight increase over Beto O'Rourke's performance (64%%) in 2018. If this happens (and to be fair--it's not by any means guaranteed), this, along with Democratic increases in the big urban counties, could easily turn Texas blue.

    My friend believes that, for the first time in a long while, that Texas Democrats actually believe there is a real chance of change, so she expects Democratic leaning voter turnout to be extremely high this time, which would be markedly different than in 2016. She sees three big factors at play--first, the fact of Biden being a better liked candidate than Hillary, 2nd, that distaste for Trump is higher than before due to his handling of the Coronavirus pandemic, and last, the bonehead move by Abbot to remove ballot collection boxes, which is widely seen as an attempt to suppress Democratic voter turnout.

    Jeff C

  4. #109
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    I think Trump is in trouble in Texas. In 2018, in statewide races: Abbott won the governor by 13 points, while Cruz won the senate race by only 2.6 points. Now, Cruz was up against a more well known opponent, Bezos. But Bezos was seen as very liberal so his name recognition was likely a wash. Cruz only won by a small margin because a lot of people, even republicans, dont really trust/like him, while Abbott is fairly popular. It shows how if the GOP has a strong candidate, the state will likely stay red (for now), but its no longer a guarantee. Now, I am positive that Cruz is more popular than Trump with republicans. That is offset by the fact that Trump does have a base of rabid supporters. I would count those two factors as somewhat of a wash, with Trump's base being energized to vote slightly outweighing Cruz's overall better popularity. But when we factor in the opponent and the motivation of democrats, then the tables turn. Biden is certainly more popular in the state than Bezos ever was. And democrats are certainly more motivated to beat Trump than they were Cruz. So, factor in all of the variables, comparing the vote in Texas this year to the senate race two years ago, and I say its almost a toss-up. Trump will likely carry the state, but it is by no means a sure deal.
    The fact that both Abbot and Cruz are not on the ballot this year helps Biden. If the GOP has no popular candidate on the ballot to lure them to the polls, Republicans lukewarm on Trump may just stay home.
    Is there a candidate in Texas that the GOP is excited enough about to bring them out on election day?
    I was born on a wooden boat that I built myself.

  5. #110
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Jones View Post
    The fact that both Abbot and Cruz are not on the ballot this year helps Biden. If the GOP has no popular candidate on the ballot to lure them to the polls, Republicans lukewarm on Trump may just stay home.
    Is there a candidate in Texas that the GOP is excited enough about to bring them out on election day?
    Senator John Cornyn is up for reelection, but he's been having some trouble separating himself from his Democratic challenger.

    Jeff C

  6. #111
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Jones View Post
    The fact that both Abbot and Cruz are not on the ballot this year helps Biden. If the GOP has no popular candidate on the ballot to lure them to the polls, Republicans lukewarm on Trump may just stay home.
    Is there a candidate in Texas that the GOP is excited enough about to bring them out on election day?
    John Cornyn is a reasonably popular senator and he should win handily. If it is close, it is due to Biden's coattails. But does he generate excitemnet to get GOP voters to the polls and help Trump? Not in the least. Its hard for any statewide candidate to have an effect on a presidential contest IMO and Cornyn is just "there". People don't think about him all that much, he doesn't grab the headlines like Cruz does. So I see him having no effect on the presidential race in Texas.

  7. #112
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Trump hasn't recovered from tailspin set off by raucous debate performance, poll shows


    With three weeks left until election day, President Trump has not recovered from the self-inflicted wounds of his first debate with Joe Biden and, instead, has sunk further behind his challenger, a new USC Dornsife poll shows.

    The latest data show the unusual extent to which the Sept. 29 debate continues to shape the campaignís final stretch.

    The encounter in Cleveland, dominated by Trumpís repeated interruptions and his cryptic statement that seemingly welcomed a right-wing extremist group, appears to be the exception to the usual rule that the impact of debates fades quickly.

    The damage the debate did to Trumpís standing has persisted through his bout with COVID-19, leaving him with a deep deficit and little time to recover. (Trumpís refusal to participate in an Oct. 15 virtual debate led to its cancellation; the final debate is set for Oct. 22.)

    Before the September debate, voters had relatively tepid expectations for how either candidate would do. Trump significantly underperformed those.

    On a 0-to-100 scale, Trumpís performance in the debate came in 18 points below what voters had expected, a comparison of those surveyed before and since the debate shows.

    Independents who lean toward the GOP ó a key bloc of potential swing voters ó reported the most disappointment. Their rating of Trumpís performance came in 24 points below their pre-debate expectations, the poll found.

    Bidenís performance was closer to expectations.

    Trump also lost ground, and Biden gained, on the question of which candidate is more mentally fit for the presidency. The former vice presidentís advantage on that question grew from 12 points before the debate to 19 points since then.


    Since the debate, roughly half the voters polled said they do not believe Trump is mentally fit.


    https://www.latimes.com/politics/sto...rmance-polling
    David G
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  8. #113
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

    Richard Feynman

  9. #114
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    And the Economist chimes in with a 92% chance for Biden to win --

    https://projects.economist.com/us-20...cast/president
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  10. #115
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    It's a shame the Sky Blue is banned, I am really curious as to Trump supporters"s logic as to how he wins.

    To me, this looks like it is just as likely a 1984-style landslide as to the popular vote.

  11. #116
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Trump is doing beautifully...

    Jeff C

  12. #117
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Almost 1 million people have already voted in Michigan--about 20% of the total vote in 2016.

    Jeff C

  13. #118
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Is is comforting that people are voting early to ensure that their vote beats the deadline- or worrying that it's more time for their ballots to be sitting somewhere in danger of being interfered with or somehow lost? I wish it was late November JayInOz

  14. #119
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    donald's 42% figure is disturbing enough.

  15. #120
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    First time in 100 years they've endorsed a Democrat --

    New Hampshire Union Leader Breaks More Than 100 Years Of Tradition By Backing Biden

    Breaking from a century of tradition, the conservative-leaning New Hampshire Union Leader endorsed Democratic nominee Joe Biden on Sunday.

    The Manchester-based paper, the most widely circulated in the state, has not endorsed a Democrat for president in more than 100 years, according to Axios. The paper endorsed libertarian Gary Johnson over then-candidate Donald Trump in 2016. The editorial board endorsed Amy Klobuchar in the 2020 primary.

    In an editorial, the Union Leader wrote that Trump has been admirable in his foreign policy achievements and positions on tax policy and the Second Amendment, "despite many in the media and Congress working to stop him at every opportunity."

    But, the paper cited skyrocketing debt, Trump's handling of the coronavirus pandemic, and the president's rhetoric on social media as factors for their support for his Democratic challenger, about whom they also cited issues regarding his stance on gun control and his response to his son Hunter's foreign business affairs.

    "Our policy disagreements with Joe Biden are significant," the paper wrote. "Despite our endorsement of his candidacy, we expect to spend a significant portion of the next four years disagreeing with the Biden administration on our editorial pages."

    The paper described Biden as the most moderate choice in the early Democratic primary field, which saw a crowded number of lawmakers, governors, and political newcomers fight for a chance at the nomination.

    "We are hopeful that this is a sign of the thoughtful and pragmatic public servant President Joe Biden will be," the paper wrote. "Sadly, President Trump has proven himself to be the antithesis of thoughtful and pragmatic; he has failed to earn a second term. Our endorsement for President of these United States goes to Joe Biden."

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...t-in-100-years


    “President Trump is not always 100 percent wrong, but he is 100 percent wrong for America,” the editorial board wrote Sunday. “Mr. Trump rightly points out that the COVID-19 crisis isn’t his fault, but a true leader must own any situation that happens on their watch. We may be turning a corner with this virus, but the corner we turned is down a dark alley of record infections and deaths.”
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  16. #121
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    I think this article from The Atlantic may have already been posted, but just in case...
    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...MDg2MTE3NTQzS0

  17. #122
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    The mango mussolini's chances now supposedly less than five per cent. What a shame.

  18. #123
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Cooks comments. She says 'watch the Job Approval numbers' --

    https://theweek.com/speedreads/94684...ly-spook-trump


    IBD says, 'the swing states are mighty close' and it's still possible for tRump to pull out an EC victory.

    https://www.yahoo.com/video/ibd-tipp...064547848.html
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  19. #124
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    and ongoing reports from the 'other side of the polls'..

    https://electproject.github.io/Early...20G/index.html

  20. #125
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    By how many people less than Biden, can Trump get and still win? What im asking is, worst case, what are the states he must get with the least amount of votes to win?

  21. #126
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    I tried to figure the theoretical minimum once, and gave up. It depends on too many assumptions. Electoral votes per population varies, turnout varies a lot between states, and margin of victory varies as well. So in theory, you could have a state where only one person voted, and whoever they voted for would get that state's electoral votes. I particularly dislike the turnout effect, because electoral votes per vote decreases in high-turnout states, perversely penalizing exactly what you want to encourage. But with some plausible assumptions, you cou win with 23% of the popular vote (link here). It's a bizarre system, even though most of the time it sort of works OK
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

    Richard Feynman

  22. #127
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    I tried to figure the theoretical minimum once, and gave up. It depends on too many assumptions. Electoral votes per population varies, turnout varies a lot between states, and margin of victory varies as well. So in theory, you could have a state where only one person voted, and whoever they voted for would get that state's electoral votes. I particularly dislike the turnout effect, because electoral votes per vote decreases in high-turnout states, perversely penalizing exactly what you want to encourage. But with some plausible assumptions, you cou win with 23% of the popular vote (link here). It's a bizarre system, even though most of the time it sort of works OK
    Well, thanks for that reply. Its more ambitious than I thought then, and a smaller number than I'd have guessed

  23. #128
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    All the polling is pretty useless now since so many has voted.
    Polling depends on people just sitting on their butts answering their phones.
    Usually, voting means actually doing something.
    The huge change this year is massive amounts of mail-in votes.
    On a normal election day, people have to get off their butts and go to the polls.
    This year they can sit on their butts and vote.
    The numbers of votes is going to be off the charts, hopefully in favor of Biden.
    I was born on a wooden boat that I built myself.

  24. #129
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Polls are interesting and they're ...entertainment, though I suppose for the election staff of each candidate, they're important.

    However, at this point, I don't think a poll is going to change anything. They are pure entertainment, now. Now...

    only one poll matters.

  25. #130
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Jones View Post
    All the polling is pretty useless now since so many has voted.
    Polling depends on people just sitting on their butts answering their phones.
    Usually, voting means actually doing something.
    The huge change this year is massive amounts of mail-in votes.
    On a normal election day, people have to get off their butts and go to the polls.
    This year they can sit on their butts and vote.
    The numbers of votes is going to be off the charts, hopefully in favor of Biden.

    And that means that all the polling to date is pretty meaningless, since they generally look at "likely voters".

    Nobody has got a clue as to who all the new voters are... and much depends on who is actually turning out. And who knows?
    You would not enjoy Nietzsche, sir. He is fundamentally unsound. ó P.G. Wodehouse (Carry On, Jeeves)

  26. #131
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by Nicholas Carey View Post
    And that means that all the polling to date is pretty meaningless, since they generally look at "likely voters".

    Nobody has got a clue as to who all the new voters are... and much depends on who is actually turning out. And who knows?
    Yeah... no. And no.

    Of course no predictive polling will be perfect. No one should take it as gospel.

    But predictive statistical sampling can and does have its uses. And it's predictive power, using only a small sample, can be quite remarkably accurate.
    David G
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  27. #132
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Biden tops 50 percent in the key battleground states in final 2020 Morning Consult polls

    Morning Consult released its final pre–Election Day tracking polls early Monday, and they had mostly good news for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. According to the polls, Biden is above 50 percent in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, and is narrowly ahead of President Trump — but within the margin of error — in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, plus tied in Texas. If — and this is a big if — Biden wins just the states where he is outside the margin of error, he will almost certainly be the next president.

    https://theweek.com/speedreads/94720...-consult-polls
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  28. #133
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    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    Yeah... no. And no.

    Of course no predictive polling will be perfect. No one should take it as gospel.

    But predictive statistical sampling can and does have its uses. And it's predictive power, using only a small sample, can be quite remarkably accurate.

    That's right.

    But if the demographic/statistical model you're working off of to define population under study ("likely voters") is out of sync with the real population of voters casting real ballots on Nov 3rd - which, given the apparently quite high turnout, is likely the case - then the poll will be inaccurate.

    Selecting a good sample is important.
    You would not enjoy Nietzsche, sir. He is fundamentally unsound. ó P.G. Wodehouse (Carry On, Jeeves)

  29. #134
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by Nicholas Carey View Post
    That's right.

    But if the demographic/statistical model you're working off of to define population under study ("likely voters") is out of sync with the real population of voters casting real ballots on Nov 3rd - which, given the apparently quite high turnout, is likely the case - then the poll will be inaccurate.

    Selecting a good sample is important.
    Ayup
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

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