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Thread: Presidential Polling Update

  1. #71
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    OK, this is a shock. From the Fox News link in David's post:

    Across the states, Biden’s edge comes mainly from women, nonwhites, voters under age 35, and those ages 65 and over. When it comes to handling coronavirus in particular, more seniors trust Biden to do a better job than Trump -- in larger numbers than back his candidacy overall.
    Historical turnout numbers:



    Last edited by Keith Wilson; 09-25-2020 at 10:22 PM.
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  2. #72
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Should you trust the polls in 2020? Here’s what pollsters have to say


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...y-b673812.html

    It’s probably a fair assumption that most committed news consumers during the 2016 election thought Hillary Clinton was going to win. A lot of people did. The polls said so.

    On the night before election day, the New York Timesprojection gave her an 85 per cent chance of winning, according to their round-up of national and state polls. FiveThirtyEight, perhaps the most well-known pollster in the world, said she had a 71 per cent chance.

    It didn’t turn out that way. Election night came as a shock to many, and the hubris of the media elite became the story of the election.

    In the subsequent years, pollsters have had a rough time explaining why the polls were so wrong in 2016, and why they should be trusted ever again. Their answer to that charge has been relatively uniform: they were not wrong....
    David G
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  3. #73
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by Alan H View Post
    Polls are entertainment, mostly ...IMHO. Only one poll matters.

    Now, there IS a way that a poll could make a difference right now. If it became incredibly clear that Biden was going to take this by, like a 60/40 majority, then that might give a number of Republican senators pause...and they just might not toe the Mitch McConnell line about getting a new Supreme Court justice in there before the election. THAT would be a "difference".
    Or it would make them more intent on getting a conservative on SCOTUS before they lose control completely.

  4. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    Should you trust the polls in 2020? Here’s what pollsters have to say


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...y-b673812.html

    It’s probably a fair assumption that most committed news consumers during the 2016 election thought Hillary Clinton was going to win. A lot of people did. The polls said so.

    On the night before election day, the New York Timesprojection gave her an 85 per cent chance of winning, according to their round-up of national and state polls. FiveThirtyEight, perhaps the most well-known pollster in the world, said she had a 71 per cent chance.

    It didn’t turn out that way. Election night came as a shock to many, and the hubris of the media elite became the story of the election.

    In the subsequent years, pollsters have had a rough time explaining why the polls were so wrong in 2016, and why they should be trusted ever again. Their answer to that charge has been relatively uniform: they were not wrong....

    I would argue that a failure to take into account that it is the states that elect the president via the College of Electors is, in fact, a failure in "methodology and technique":
    "I think what happened in 2016 wasn't really a failure of methodology or technique, it was a failure of analysis and reporting," said Chris Jackson, head of public polling at Ipsos.

    "We, like many other people, sort of got hung up on the idea that Clinton winning by three percentage points and the national popular vote meant something, and took our eye off of the importance of the electoral college and how the electoral college could, and in fact did, deviate from those results."
    You would not enjoy Nietzsche, sir. He is fundamentally unsound. — P.G. Wodehouse (Carry On, Jeeves)

  5. #75
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by Nicholas Carey View Post
    I would argue that a failure to take into account that it is the states that elect the president via the College of Electors is, in fact, a failure in "methodology and technique":
    You're quibbling about the language. They're saying they got the data and numbers fairly accurately, and failed at analyzing what they meant.

    I think it was, partly, an issue of self-image. I suspect pollsters regarded (and mostly still do???) their role as technicians. I get the impression that interpreting that data was, for them, an afterthought. I hope they've overcome that notion now... or at least some of them have. I hope they've realized that the former serves little purpose without the latter.
    David G
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  6. #76
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Or...

    Why a Biden blowout is still the most likely result

    https://theweek.com/articles/939530/...-likely-result
    David G
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  7. #77
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    The Economist publishes their own modeling ---

    SUMMARY

    Joe Biden - 87% chance of winning

    Senate - 67% chance of flipping to the Democrats

    House - 98% chance of retaining a Democratic majority

    https://projects.economist.com/us-20...cast/president
    David G
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  8. #78
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    New Yahoo News/YouGov poll: Biden expands lead to 8 points as voters blame Trump for COVID-19 carelessness and chaotic debate





    According to a pair of new Yahoo News/YouGov polls conducted immediately before and after President Trump disclosed his COVID-19 diagnosis, Joe Biden improved his lead in the 2020 election with his more composed performance in last Tuesday’s debate. He has maintained that same lead as a spate of new coronavirus cases started to surface in and around the White House, further undermining voters’ confidence in the president’s handling of the pandemic.

    The first survey, conducted from Oct. 1 to Oct. 2, found Biden ahead by 8 points (48 percent to 40 percent) after leading Trump by 5 points (45 percent to 40 percent) in the previous Yahoo News/YouGov poll.

    The debate, held Sept. 29 in Cleveland, may have made the difference. Among registered voters who watched the raucous clash, 46 percent said Biden won; only 28 percent said the same of Trump. The president’s hectoring performance — a clear majority of debate watchers (59 percent) rated it as “poor,” compared to only 32 percent for Biden — was followed by a collapse in his support among likely independent voters.

    Before the debate, these independents narrowly preferred Trump (44 percent) over Biden (43 percent). After the debate, they preferred Biden (44 percent) over Trump (29 percent) — meaning the president effectively lost 15 points among independents overnight.

    The second Yahoo News/YouGov survey, conducted from Oct. 2 to Oct. 3, found no significant change in Biden’s lead over the president as the cluster of COVID-19 cases among top Republicans started to expand. Nor did it find an outpouring of sympathy for the stricken president or his party.


    https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-yahoo...163144698.html
    David G
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Biden's national lead over Trump jumps to 14 points after debate in NBC News/WSJ poll

    Joe Biden's lead has nearly doubled since Tuesday's debate with voters saying by a 2-to-1 margin that he has the better temperament to be president.Forty-nine percent of voters say Biden did a better job at Tuesday’s debate, which was marked by insults, interruptions, falsehoods and personal attacks — most, though not all, coming from the president.

    That’s compared with 24 percent who say Trump had the better performance.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/mee...after-n1242018

    Joe Biden's lead has nearly doubled since Tuesday's debate with voters saying by a 2-to-1 margin that he has the better temperament to be president.
    David G
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    We sure are lucky it was only a pandemic that hit during Donald’s tenure. Imagine if it was something worse. Or we wanted to build something.

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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    Should you trust the polls in 2020? Here’s what pollsters have to say


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...y-b673812.html

    It’s probably a fair assumption that most committed news consumers during the 2016 election thought Hillary Clinton was going to win. A lot of people did. The polls said so.

    On the night before election day, the New York Timesprojection gave her an 85 per cent chance of winning, according to their round-up of national and state polls. FiveThirtyEight, perhaps the most well-known pollster in the world, said she had a 71 per cent chance.

    It didn’t turn out that way. Election night came as a shock to many, and the hubris of the media elite became the story of the election.

    In the subsequent years, pollsters have had a rough time explaining why the polls were so wrong in 2016, and why they should be trusted ever again. Their answer to that charge has been relatively uniform: they were not wrong....
    Clinton had a 100% chance of winning the popular vote and did so as did Gore before her. Only by manipulation in the EC did Trump "win" and Bush won by court manipulation. If you call that winning, then you are right but the people say otherwise. I will not claim a projection for the winner this time but fully expect democrats to take over the White House and hope they get the other houses as well. If there are enough stupid people in the USA to elect Trump this time, I hope Canada relaxes their border rules. I'm much too old to move about but there are lots and lots of younger mobile people who would get out.
    Tom L

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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    For quite a while... 538's simulation had Biden sitting at 77%. Since Trump's hospitalization, and esp. since the debate, that number has been rising. It's 83 now.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/



    The 538 and RCP aggregate polling averages show Biden up by 7.3 and 9.2 respectively.

    The RCP Electoral College map shows Biden with 226 votes (270 required to clinch) - and Trump at 125, with 187 'toss-ups'.

    By projecting the toss-up states -- they show Biden at 375... Trump at 163.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._toss_ups.html
    David G
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  13. #83
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Polls a poppin’!

  14. #84
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by LeeG View Post
    Polls a poppin’!
    And lurching sharply in the wrong direction for the incumbent.
    David G
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    For quite a while... 538's simulation had Biden sitting at 77%. Since Trump's hospitalization, and esp. since the debate, that number has been rising. It's 83 now.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/



    The 538 and RCP aggregate polling averages show Biden up by 7.3 and 9.2 respectively.

    The RCP Electoral College map shows Biden with 226 votes (270 required to clinch) - and Trump at 125, with 187 'toss-ups'.

    By projecting the toss-up states -- they show Biden at 375... Trump at 163.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._toss_ups.html

    four years ago today, 538 gave hillary a seemingly insurmountable 77.6% chance of winning

    since then, its not too hard to consider pre-election polls to be meaningless
    Simpler is better, except when complicated looks really cool.

  16. #86
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    538 gave Hillary a seemingly insurmountable 77.6% chance of winning
    Three in four odds is only 'seemingly insurmountable' if you don't understand statistics, or aren't thinking very hard.

    Here's more on a very interesting recent development (source):

    The Gray Revolt
    Older voters were key to Donald Trump’s 2016 coalition. Now they’re abandoning him.
    by Nancy LeTourneau- October 6, 2020

    The big polling news over the weekend came from the NBC News/Wall Street Journal post-debate poll showing Joe Biden with a 14-point lead over Donald Trump. That’s up from an eight-point lead in their previous poll. Nate Silver noted that this poll is usually close to the national averages. It’s not likely to be an outlier. What is even more significant than the topline number, however, is that Trump’s biggest decline came from seniors, where Biden leads by 27 points (62-35). While that is dramatic, other national and state polls have shown Biden with a sizable lead among seniors. That is a huge reversal from 2016 when Trump won with voters who were over 65 by seven points.

    Seniors are, of course, among the most formidable forces in American politics because they vote. Four years ago, 71 percent of voters over 65 cast a ballot—compared to 46 percent in the 18-29 age group. About 17 percent of America’s adults are seniors, but they make up 25 percent of this country’s registered voters, giving them an outsized role in any election. In addition, this is a voting bloc that could swing the election in several battleground states, particularly Florida, Arizona, and Pennsylvania.

    According to conventional wisdom, the reason for Trump’s declining support among seniors is his mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic. The president ignored the issue initially, while some of his Republican colleagues suggested that older Americans, who are more likely to die if they contract COVID-19, can be sacrificed in order to jump-start the economy. In July and August 2020, 11 nursing home residents died every hour nationally, according to a recent congressional report co-authored by Sen. Robert Casey (D-Pa). Beyond that, many seniors have followed the science-based guidelines and have given up everything from attending the funerals of loved ones to hugging their grandchildren. They’ve done this while watching Trump flout the rules, mock those who adhere to them, and eventually contract COVID himself.

    Because this pandemic has so dramatically affected seniors personally, journalist Walter Shapiro suggests that they might have been tracking Trump’s lies and incompetence more closely than they did his other actions over the previous three years. But Biden has actually held an advantage among seniors since last summer, indicating that the coronavirus isn’t the only factor. To understand why, it is helpful to remember that the group we refer to as “seniors” can actually be broken down into subsets, as Pew Research did back in 2012.

    "Those who turned 18 during the Nixon administration – a segment of older Baby Boomers – have tended to be slightly more Democratic than average in their voting. Those who came of age during the Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson years – mostly members of the Silent generation and the very oldest of the Baby Boomers –have tended to be more Republican than the average."

    As the number of seniors who came of age during the Eisenhower years fades, the slightly more Democratic Boomers are filling the ranks, adding 10,000 people to the 65+ age group per day. In other words, the senior cohort that voted for Trump in 2016 has changed dramatically. That alone could explain why Biden held a lead of about five points initially. But Biden’s lead has continued to grow. In addition to Trump’s mishandling of the pandemic, we can perhaps credit those who have provided a permission structure for Republicans to vote for Biden, like the bipartisan group of 489 national security officials who endorsed the former vice president. Trump’s remarks disparaging those in the military would have resonated more profoundly with seniors and seem to have led to a public endorsement by Cindy McCain, 66, the wife of the 2008 Republican nominee.

    Another blow to Trump’s clout with seniors came from the first (and perhaps the last) Trump-Biden debate. Reacting to Biden’s 27-point lead among seniors in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, journalist Ron Brownstein pointed out that “they have seen enough other presidents to recognize how aberrant his behavior is; the debate was a 90-minute testimonial to that.” As a source told Gabriel Sherman of Vanity Fair, “The thing about the debate is people got to see why no one that has any integrity can work for Trump. This is what Trump is like in the Oval Office every day.” Even Fox News couldn’t hide that reality from viewers.

    Presenting a contrast, Biden has gained a reputation as a stable moderate who actually cares about people at a time when all of us, including seniors, are ready for a break from bullying and chaos. We don’t know yet how seniors will be affected by the fact that the president has contracted COVID-19. But if Biden continues to lead Trump among voters 65 and older by these margins, it is difficult to imagine any path to reelection for the president.
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Pless View Post
    four years ago today, 538 gave hillary a seemingly insurmountable 77.6% chance of winning

    since then, its not too hard to consider pre-election polls to be meaningless
    I understand the reaction.

    But, because of the different circumstances, and because of the lessons learned by pollsters, I believe it to be more reactive than rational. Time will tell.
    David G
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    538 now projects Biden at 85% chance of winning. With a spread of just under 10% in the polling.

    RCP has that spread at 9.7%, and shows Biden with 226 firm electoral votes, with tRump at 125 and tossups at 187. With NO tossups... it's Biden with 374.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/politics/

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._toss_ups.html
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    And the senate? Mitch in particular?

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    Quote Originally Posted by skuthorp View Post
    And the senate? Mitch in particular?
    Sadly, it is looking like Mitch may survive. And I think Alabama senator Doug Jones is headed for defeat. But Sara Gideon should beat Susan Collins, and Mark Kelly is looking good to take the Arizona senate seat from Martha McSally. The Democrats also look likely to flip a seat in North Carolina. The other races are closer, but Democrats have a realistic chance to win in Iowa, Georgia, Alaska, Kansas, and possibly in Texas, where the Democrats have a very decent chance to turn Texas blue for Biden, and pick up a Senate seat.

    Texas may be the big story on election night, because it will likely be called on election night, and because it's looking like there may be a much better voter turnout than in 2016, when turnout was a pathetic 50.9%. Increased turnout in Texas will definitely favor Democrats.

    Jeff C

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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Cook's latest has Biden leading the EC tally with 290... tRump with 163, and 85 tossups.

    https://cookpolitical.com/sites/defa...s.092920.2.pdf
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Florida (29) Georgia (16)Iowa (6)Maine 2nd CD (1) North Carolina (15) Ohio (18)



    That those states are 'toss ups' say a heck of a lot about how the election is going.

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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Latest poll shows Biden up by 12 points - both among registered and likely voters. Dig deeper here ---

    https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-co...tionUpdate.pdf
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Not looking good for Mr. Trump. Here's the latest from 538; the trend is against him, and the swing states aren't much different. Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota are pretty solid blue, Arizona closer but similar, and Florida likely. North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, and Georgia (!!) are tossups, Texas close but probably red.




    Here's the map as current polls show it:

    Last edited by Keith Wilson; 10-12-2020 at 10:43 AM.
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Whenever I get glum about this election, I just look to Keith and his encouraging polling data.
    Thanks!
    I was born on a wooden boat that I built myself.

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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Early voting is starting in Texas tomorrow, Oct 13. If turnout is strong Trump is in trouble.

    Jeff C

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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    If folks in Texas whose ancestors lived in the Spanish Empire ever start voting as much as everybody else, the state will pretty reliably go for Democrats.

    When writing about poll results, I try to be as objective as possible, nether optimistic nor pessimistic. All I do is mostly pull stuff off Nate Silver's page, fivethirtyeight.com. They're no more infallible than any other human beings, but they're the best there is.

    This all assumes that the election goes more or less as normal. I haven't the vaguest idea what the odds of that might be.
    Last edited by Keith Wilson; 10-12-2020 at 11:45 AM.
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by leikec View Post
    Early voting is starting in Texas tomorrow, Oct 13. If turnout is strong Trump is in trouble.

    Jeff C
    I think Trump is in trouble in Texas. In 2018, in statewide races: Abbott won the governor by 13 points, while Cruz won the senate race by only 2.6 points. Now, Cruz was up against a more well known opponent, Bezos. But Bezos was seen as very liberal so his name recognition was likely a wash. Cruz only won by a small margin because a lot of people, even republicans, dont really trust/like him, while Abbott is fairly popular. It shows how if the GOP has a strong candidate, the state will likely stay red (for now), but its no longer a guarantee. Now, I am positive that Cruz is more popular than Trump with republicans. That is offset by the fact that Trump does have a base of rabid supporters. I would count those two factors as somewhat of a wash, with Trump's base being energized to vote slightly outweighing Cruz's overall better popularity. But when we factor in the opponent and the motivation of democrats, then the tables turn. Biden is certainly more popular in the state than Bezos ever was. And democrats are certainly more motivated to beat Trump than they were Cruz. So, factor in all of the variables, comparing the vote in Texas this year to the senate race two years ago, and I say its almost a toss-up. Trump will likely carry the state, but it is by no means a sure deal.

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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    If folks in Texas whose ancestors lived in the Spanish Empire ever start voting as much as everybody else, the state will pretty reliably go for Democrats.
    This is by no means a sure thing. You underestimate how the Hispanics in this state are, as a whole, conservative, especially on social issues. I have Hispanic friends who are voting for Trump, they won't even consider voting democratic. I actually think that, since the GOP will have to do a "reset" post-Trump, it gives them an opportunity to rewind the clock with the Hispanic vote to 2000, which the GOP was well position to lock up much of the Hispanic vote for a generation but decided to throw it away on the immigration issue. Not saying this will happen, but there is a chance. It is by no means assured the Hispanic vote will ever be monolithic.


    ETA: To illustrate how complicated the Hispanic vote can be, I will give a reason for a Trump vote I have now heard twice. I am by no means claiming this is a common thought among Hispanics, it is much more likely a very big outlier, which is why I am surprised I have heard to twice now. The reason: Mexican politics. They either do not quite trust AMLO, or do not trust him at all. They see Trump as a governor of AMLO's actions. AMLO and Trump get along and he does not want to alienate Trump, so he will be restrained. But if we have a liberal president, AMLO will more likely go all Hugo-Chavez. This though process is certainly more common in Mexico than it is here, but there it does exist here.
    Last edited by peb; 10-12-2020 at 11:56 AM.

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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    You underestimate how the Hispanics in this state are, as a whole, conservative, especially on social issues.
    Oh, I know that very well. I've been saying for years that there's a large subset of Hispanic folks who would be a natural Republican constituency if the party manages to get over Trumpist know-nothing nativism. I suspect that may take a long time, since there are a lot of older rural white folks who've embraced the whole anti-immigrant shtick (edging over into white nationalism, farther every day). Repairing that damage is not going to be easy, and so far they haven't even figured out it would be a good idea.

    But Hispanic turnout in Texas has been easily ten points lower than the average, sometimes more. And they're pushing 30% of eligible voters. As things stand right now, if they voted at the average rate, Texas would go solidly blue.
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    Oh, I know that very well. I've been saying for years that there's a large subset of Hispanic folks who would be a natural Republican constituency if the party manages to get over Trumpist know-nothing nativism. I suspect that may take a long time, since there are a lot of older rural white folks who've embraced the whole anti-immigrant shtick (edging over into white nationalism, farther every day). Repairing that damage is not going to be easy, and so far they haven't even figured out it would be a good idea.

    But Hispanic turnout in Texas has been easily ten points lower than the average, sometimes more. And they're pushing 30% of eligible voters. As things stand right now, if they voted at the average rate, Texas would go solidly blue.
    But that math would only give 3% more voters. For it to make Texas solid blue, that 3% would have to be 100% democratic. That is not going to happen.
    We disagree with the Texas older rural white folk embracing the anti-immigrant shtick to anywhere near the extent you claim. Neither in the numbers, nor the extremism, you imply. Indeed, I would say among rural Texans, the older people are much less racist againt the "Mexican" as in the old days. And as for anti-immigration, that is solidly an issue only among the Trumpistas of the state. The "silent-majority" of conservatives in the state who really don't care is surprisingly large IMO.

  32. #102
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    We disagree with the Texas older rural white folk embracing the anti-immigrant shtick to anywhere near the extent you claim.
    Oh, sorry, I wasn't clear. I didn't mean Texas specifically. I expect you're right about Texas, having far more experience than I do in that area. I was referring to the national party, and white Republican voters more in the rural Midwest or south, places there have been few if any Hispanic folks until recently.

    But that math would only give 3% more voters.
    Well maybe no 'solidly', but likely enough to tip it. Check out the Texas polls. Trump hasn't been ahead by three since May.
    Last edited by Keith Wilson; 10-12-2020 at 12:30 PM.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

    Richard Feynman

  33. #103
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    Oh, sorry, I wasn't clear. I didn't mean Texas specifically. I expect you're right about Texas, having far more experience than I do in that area. I was referring to the national party, and white Republican voters more in the rural Midwest or south, places there have been few if any Hispanic folks until recently.
    I thought that might be the case, but since the topic was Texas going blue, I thought I would make that clear on my response. I have no doubt in your part of the woods that may very well be the case. Its just that folks around here have lived with Hispanics a very long time, and have largely come to appreciate them in many ways. When I was a kid, my hometown of German Catholics had a lot of anti-Hispanic racism in it, I saw it every day (I can proudly say that my parents made sure it did not exist in my family). It just is not there much anymore.

  34. #104
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    Well maybe no 'solidly', but likely enough to tip it. Check out the Texas polls. Trump hasn't been ahead by three since May.
    Again, we are talking about Trump as the candidate. I have no doubt that a large hispanic turnout would tip the state to Biden. The race is very close in Texas. But in general, you will not be able to assume a 10% increase in hispanic voters in this state will be predominantly democratic voters.

  35. #105
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    I think it depends on whether the party continues with nativism as a central principle. There's also an age-cohort effect; older Hispanic folks are more conservative, but fewer very day. This isn't unique to Hispanics by any means, but there might be a finite time window for Republicans to repudiate Trumpism and get conservative Hispanic voters back.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

    Richard Feynman

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