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Thread: Presidential Polling Update

  1. #36
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    OTOH - there are also some states that started out as R gimmees that are now tightening. Last aggregate I saw for Tejas had Trump up only by 2 points. That's be huge.

    i recalled last go round, with about a month to go before election day, hillary thought she could sway texas, and she campaigned there, eschewing michigan and pennsylvania

    dse
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  2. #37
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Pless View Post
    i recalled last go round, with about a month to go before election day, hillary thought she could sway texas, and she campaigned there, eschewing michigan and pennsylvania
    She never set foot in Wisconsin, and lost there by 23,000 votes or so. Let's home the Democrats have learned that lesson.

    Tom
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  3. #38
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by WI-Tom View Post
    She never set foot in Wisconsin
    dse
    Simpler is better, except when complicated looks really cool.

  4. #39
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Are there any veterans in Wisconsin?

    You know, the "suckers"...

  5. #40
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by Canoeyawl View Post
    Are there any veterans in Wisconsin?

    You know, the "suckers"...
    If any of them are still planning to vote for Trump by now, they are indeed "suckers." Let's hope not.

    Tom
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  6. #41
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Analysis -- 'Mobilizing the base' alone are probably not gonna get it done for Trump --

    https://www.salon.com/2020/09/06/hig...ected_partner/



    More detail --

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlo...ge%2Fstory-ans
    David G
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  7. #42
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    My weekly creation of my own, very simply EC map, currently shows Biden at 238 and Trump at 126. Biden continues to lose states as the battleground states tighten up, but Trump has not gained any.

  8. #43
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by WI-Tom View Post
    She never set foot in Wisconsin, and lost there by 23,000 votes or so. Let's home the Democrats have learned that lesson.

    Tom
    Well... this time Biden has visited. And I think he plans on returning...
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  9. #44
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    First poll capturing the 'shallow throat' stuff, and the military slander stuff suggested no change. This one just out says Biden's lead is growing --

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-yahoo...215044674.html


    And 538 now shows Biden with a 75% chance of victory... up a couple of points.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/politics/


    RCP meanwhile currently has Biden winning 352 electoral votes.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._toss_ups.html
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  10. #45
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    Well... this time Biden has visited. And I think he plans on returning...
    Harris has been here, too. Seems like they are paying attention.
    You don't have to be prepared as long as you're willing to suffer the consequences.

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  11. #46
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    After 2016, the only poll I will believe is 03 Nov.
    Gerard>
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    #STOP THE COUP

  12. #47
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by Gerarddm View Post
    After 2016, the only poll I will believe is 03 Nov.
    I hear ya. There's part of me that feels that way to. But a larger part says I'm over-reacting.
    David G
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  13. #48
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    an even larger part is telling you you cant help yourself
    Simpler is better, except when complicated looks really cool.

  14. #49
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Pless View Post
    an even larger part is telling you you cant help yourself
    Naaaahhhh... I am not hearing anything like that at all.

    Unless you mean that noise that goes lalalalalalalalalalalala in the background <G>
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  15. #50
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    I hope the young turks do a special again.

  16. #51
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Battleground Tracker: Biden gains edge in Arizona, leads big in Minnesota

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-t...ta-09-14-2020/

    https://www.cbsnews.com/2020-us-elec...CNM-00-10abc1f
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  17. #52
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Fox News Poll: Biden judged more mentally sound than Trump --

    https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/09/Fox_September-7-10-2020_Complete_National_Topline_September-13-Release.pdf

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/biden-jud...051800559.html

    By a margin of 5 points...
    David G
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  18. #53
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update



    Who respects military more — Trump or Biden?



    61% say Biden


    https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nat...245719955.html
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  19. #54
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    The Algorithm Is Watching

  20. #55
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    This trio of Gallup polls spells a warning for Trump


    https://fortune.com/2020/09/20/trump...2020-election/

    With 44 days until the U.S. presidential election, it may seem to many as if the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has dramatically changed the political calculus—shifting the national conversation away from President Trump’s performance in office and refocusing voters on the battle over who, ultimately, gets to select Justice Ginsburg’s replacement. But a wealth of new polling data suggests that the fundamentals of this election are not likely to change—and particularly telling are a trio of Gallup survey questions that, taken together, have a strong track record for predicting past races in which sitting presidents vie for a second term.

    The three key metrics—gauging presidential approval, U.S. satisfaction, and economic confidence—which were in the field from Aug. 31 to Sept. 13, suggest that President Trump has a very difficult road ahead to win reelection, no matter what happens with respect to the vacancy on the Supreme Court. “With those three measures,” says Jeffrey Jones, a senior editor and researcher at Gallup, “you can get a good sense of the lay of the land. Together, they usually offer a good way to figure out if an incumbent is going to win or lose.”

    In the latest Gallup survey, 42% of Americans say they approve of the President’s performance in office and just 14% of Americans say they’re satisfied with the way things are going in the country. The firm assesses economic confidence by way of an index that combines two related measures—how Americans rate current economic conditions today and whether or not they think things are getting better or worse. In both cases, in the latest poll (ending Sept. 13), the majority of respondents’ answers are negative: 31% rate current conditions as “excellent” or “good” versus 34% who say they’re “poor”; and substantially more people say the economy is “getting worse” (56%) than “getting better” (40%).

    Overall, Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index, which calculates responses on a range of negative 100 to positive 100, is at minus 10. While that’s up from last month’s reading of minus 16—and sharply higher than its April low, when the sudden fury of the coronavirus led to widespread business lockdowns and an historic rise in unemployment—it nonetheless represents a major challenge for the Trump campaign.

    “It’s understandable—but also really shocking—how much [economic sentiment] has changed this year,” marvels Jones. “We didn’t see it move that much in all of Obama’s presidency. But this year we’ve seen it go from the highest level in 20 years (a rating of plus 40) to rock bottom (minus 33) and now to minus 10.”
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  21. #56
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    ‘It’s a big, big swing’: Trump loses ground with white voters

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...support-418420
    David G
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  22. #57
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Reuters switches to weekly polling in battlegroud states Biden leads in Wisconsin, barely leads in PA. ---

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN26C31N
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  23. #58
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Polling in PA has been remarkably consistent (like it has been nationally), with Biden up by four or five. Here's 538's PA page.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

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  24. #59
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Polls shmolls

    The last 2 republican presidents got elected with minorities.
    How the bloody hell does that electoral system affect things; what are the key states? And how are they doing in them?

    We all know that California and Kentucky don't matter.
    Where does?
    It's all fun and games until Darth Vader comes.

  25. #60
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by gypsie View Post
    . . . what are the key states? And how are they doing in them? We all know that California and Kentucky don't matter. Where does?
    In order of light pink to light blue: Iowa, Georgia, Ohio, Maine 2nd district, NC, Florida, Nebraska 2nd district, AZ, PA, WI. All except the first three are tilting slightly Democratic at this point. For more than any sane person ever wanted to know about this election as a horse race, read what Nate Silver has to say at 538.com. He gives Biden 77-22 odds
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

    Richard Feynman

  26. #61
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    In order of light pink to light blue: Iowa, Georgia, Ohio, Maine 2nd district, NC, Florida, Nebraska 2nd district, AZ, PA, WI. All except the first three are tilting slightly Democratic at this point. For more than any sane person ever wanted to know about this election as a horse race, read what Nate Silver has to say at 538.com. He gives Biden 77-22 odds
    Not meant to be snarky, but what odds did he give Clinton in 2016?

    Tom
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  27. #62
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by WI-Tom View Post
    Not meant to be snarky, but what odds did he give Clinton in 2016
    A bit worse; 71-29. (As of Nov 4, 65-35.) While 538's about the best there is, and I suspect they've learned something in the last four years, predicting the future reliably is not something we mere mortals can do. And having a 2:1 chance come out either way should hardly be surprising
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

    Richard Feynman

  28. #63
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Thanks--after 2016, I find it hard to be too cheery about those kinds of optimistic projections, but I sure hope he's right this time.

    Tom
    You don't have to be prepared as long as you're willing to suffer the consequences.

    www.tompamperin.com

  29. #64
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    The huge difference between 2016 and now is that last time, the odds he came up with fluctuated wildly over time - from nearly even at the end of July, to 90-10 in the middle of August, to 55-45 at the end of September, to 90-10 again in the middle of September, to 65-35 early in November. In contrast, the numbers this year, both the polling and 538's calculated odds, have been remarkably stable. I think that reflects the real world, not a change in methodology.

    A guess: Last time, Mr. Trump was something of an unknown. There were also hints of scandals about Ms. Clinton - all turning out to be bogus, but that makes no difference. The latter would explain the fluctuations. Not now.
    Last edited by Keith Wilson; 09-22-2020 at 08:41 AM.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

    Richard Feynman

  30. #65
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    The huge difference between 2016 and now is that last time, the odds he came up with fluctuated wildly over time - from nearly even at the end of July, to 90-10 in the middle of August, to 55-45 at the end of September, to 90-10 again in the middle of September, to 65-35 early in November. In contrast, the numbers this year, both the polling and 538's calculated odds, have been remarkably stable. I think that reflects the real world, not a change in methodology.

    A guess: Last time, Mr. Trump was something of an unknown. There were also hints of scandals about Ms. Clinton - all turning out to be bogus, but that makes no difference. The latter would explain the fluctuations. Not now.
    Trump has tried every way he can to find something similar to pin on Biden, but so far without luck. Just as he's not found a catchy derogatory nickname to paste on him. Nothing has worked so far.

    But you can bet Ducati's to donuts that he is teeing up at least one (bogus but disruptive) 'October Surprise'.
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  31. #66
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Just one poll, but interesting ---

    Yahoo News/YouGov Poll: Presidential race tightens even as most voters oppose GOP's push to replace Ginsburg before election

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/yahoo-new...162257005.html
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  32. #67
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    538's composite hasn't changed significantly for three months. Data here.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

    Richard Feynman

  33. #68
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    538's composite hasn't changed significantly for three months. Data here.
    I've noticed. I think they're all at the beach. Just waiting for the time to get closer... before they spring into action!!! <G>
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  34. #69
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Latest polling from Fox --

    Trump unloads on Fox News after network polls shows Biden ahead in key swing states

    https://www.foxnews.com/official-pol...d-pennsylvania
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  35. #70
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Polls are entertainment, mostly ...IMHO. Only one poll matters.

    Now, there IS a way that a poll could make a difference right now. If it became incredibly clear that Biden was going to take this by, like a 60/40 majority, then that might give a number of Republican senators pause...and they just might not toe the Mitch McConnell line about getting a new Supreme Court justice in there before the election. THAT would be a "difference".

    Otherwise, for me personally....**Meh**

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