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Thread: Presidential Polling Update

  1. #1
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    Default Presidential Polling Update

    Latest poll out is from USC, which tends a bit toward the conservative side --

    Poll: Trump has lost ground since 2016 among key groups, down 11 points against Biden


    https://pressroom.usc.edu/poll-trump...against-biden/

    While President Trump is going all-in to court the suburban vote just two months out from the general election, it looks like his messaging isn't working as planned. A newly released poll from the University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research paints a scary picture for Trump — namely, that his 2016 tactics of fear-mongering and racist attacks aren't working to sway voters he needs on his side this time around. More than that, Trump's Democratic opponent, Joe Biden, isn't losing voters in large cities to Trump, a bloc the president would need to win to make up for his losses.

    According to the USC poll published Tuesday, Trump is trailing or underperforming in key — and surprising — electoral demographics. In particular, Trump is losing ground with men, tied with Biden among voters without college degrees, and trailing by a whopping 13 percentage points when it comes to suburban voters overall. Even with the poll's 1-point margin of error, the results show that Biden is winning suburban voters handily.

    "Obviously it’s still early and we don’t know the full impact and future course of the ongoing racial strife and the two nominees’ reactions to it, but one thing is clear: Trump starts the fall campaign in a weaker position than any incumbent since George H. W. Bush," said Robert Shrum, director of the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future, in a release accompanying the results.

    It is unclear how much of an impact the ongoing racial uprisings — including Trump's tacit support of white militia members — have on voters. The online poll was conducted Aug. 11–Aug. 29, and Jacob Blake was shot by police in Wisconsin on Aug. 23. The poll was also ongoing during both the Democratic and Republican nominating conventions, though it looks like Trump's ultra-patriotic messaging didn't sway voters as planned. By the time the RNC started, Trump was trailing Biden by 14 percentage points in USC's poll, though he won back some Republican-leaning independent voters after the convention, the poll shows. (For truly undecided independent voters, the conventions didn't seem to push them in either candidate's direction.)

    Additionally, the poll was conducted leading into the sixth month of the coronavirus pandemic, which has claimed over 180,000 lives in the U.S. so far, touching voters in nearly every neighborhood. Regionally, the poll demonstrates a shift in rural and suburban areas. Trump is behind Biden by 13 percentage points in suburban areas, and among white suburban voters, the two men are tied. Trump won white suburban voters handily in 2016, and he's relying on their support for re-election.

    In a somewhat surprising turn, the poll found that Trump is also slipping when it comes to voters in agricultural regions, and has seen his lead fall from a 3-1 to less than a 2-1 lead. White women voters, 53% of whom voted for Trump in 2016, are also slipping away: Compared with four years ago, Trump has experienced a 9-point drop among rural white women. Overall, the poll found that Trump's lead over Biden among white voters is just half of where he was against Hillary Clinton in 2016.

    Even in small towns, the president is not winning by the numbers he needs to be in order to feel comfortable about his re-election prospects. Trump is currently leading Biden 48% to 45% among small town voters, which USC considers a statistical tie. In 2016, Trump won these voters by 6 percentage points.

    Perhaps most interestingly, Trump is losing among men, a group he secured easily four years ago. Trump hasn't explicitly campaigned to male voters in the same ways that he's attempted to specifically speak to suburban women and rural voters, and it shows: Biden's lead among male voters sits currently at 49%-45%. It's not a lead that's as shocking as that of suburban voters, but even the mere presence of a shift in candidate preference is qualitatively significant.

    Of course, two months is a lifetime in campaign world, and it's highly likely that the pandemic and ongoing social justice uprisings will shift voter opinions well into October. However, the strong leads that Biden holds among key groups coupled with the losses on Trump's side represent challenges that will be difficult for the president to overcome.

    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  2. #2
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    OTOH... the latest 538 numbers show Trump's 'disapprove' down to less than 10 points higher than is 'approve' numbers. 53% to 43.3%

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  3. #3
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    And... RCP electoral map, without any toss-ups, shows Biden winning with 337 electoral votes. While ABC/538's (WITH a couple called as toss-ups) was recently updated to show Biden winning, but with only 307 electoral votes. If you arbitrarily, but conservatively, split the toss-ups, you might bump that up to 318 for Biden.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._toss_ups.html
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  4. #4
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Fred, that could very well work. Not really rigging the election but rigging the polling ahead of them. I like that. What do you need? A tick tock account to make like one of those flash mobs where everyone does it? How did they organize the ticket sales? That was kids I think right?
    If one advances confidently in the direction of his dreams, and endeavors to live the life which he has imagined, he will meet with a success unexpected in common hours.
    -Henry David Thoreau-

  5. #5
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    The bottom line will be who comes out to vote? African Americans did not come out for Hillary. If they don't come out for Biden, and if the Hispanics stay home, it's "12 more year... 12 more years...!"

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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by CWSmith View Post
    The bottom line will be who comes out to vote? African Americans did not come out for Hillary. If they don't come out for Biden, and if the Hispanics stay home, it's "12 more year... 12 more years...!"
    Indeed.

    And EVERYONE... if this is important to you, it's Not Too Late to volunteer with efforts to increase turnout. I've been volunteering for months, and I think the efforts are helping. Pick any organization you're partial to. Here's one such group --

    https://turnout2020.org/

    High Voter Turnout and Record Fund-Raising Give Democrats Hope for November

    Despite a disjointed primary season and the challenges of holding elections during a pandemic, the party is seeing a surge in energy among voters.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/21/u...iden-2020.html


    Donations $$$ help too.
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  7. #7
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Or... if you're a person of faith and want to promote voter turnout --

    https://www.faith2020.org/?fbclid=Iw...6GOjUJbN2OD3bE

    https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/faith...205037267.html
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  8. #8
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Or... if you're a person of faith and want to promote voter turnout --

    https://www.faith2020.org/?fbclid=Iw...6GOjUJbN2OD3bE
    David G
    Harbor Woodworks
    https://www.facebook.com/HarborWoodworks/

    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  9. #9
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    I found it interesting last weekend to read an assessment of the American political landscape that gave the author's opinion that an atheist couldn't hope to be elected.

  10. #10
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Obviously some did not learn from the 2016 polls, all judgement reserved until the fat lady sings.

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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by woodpile View Post
    Obviously some did not learn from the 2016 polls, all judgement reserved until the fat lady sings.
    What we are learning from the polls is that Biden is far ahead at this point then was Hillary.
    I was born on a wooden boat that I built myself.

  12. #12
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by John Meachen View Post
    I found it interesting last weekend to read an assessment of the American political landscape that gave the author's opinion that an atheist couldn't hope to be elected.
    Yes... appearances must be kept up... even in this day and age.

    But one clearly doesn't have to work very hard at it. Just look at tRump...
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  13. #13
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    I am making GOTV calls (plus reading the bilge) right now.
    __________________________________________________ ________________________

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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by CK 17 View Post
    I am making GOTV calls (plus reading the bilge) right now.
    Nice!

    I do get tired of hearing all the dingbats claim that all we BilgeRats do is 'waste time' posting in the Bilge... when they don't have any idea what else we do - despite mentions of other activities.



    And here's the new poll that just came out today ---

    No bounce in support for Trump as Americans see pandemic, not crime, as top issue: Reuters/Ipsos poll

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN25T1I3


    NEW YORK (Reuters) - President Donald Trump’s attempt to make civil unrest a central theme of his re-election campaign has yet to boost his political standing, as most Americans do not see crime as a major problem confronting the nation and a majority remain sympathetic to anti-racism protests, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday.
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  15. #15
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    A summary - Biden's lead seems to be holding, and is better than Hillary's at this stage in 2016 ---

    Trump's new strategy against Biden faces signs of trouble, polls show

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...polls-n1239137
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  16. #16
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    I mentioned before how tRump is now trailing in the polls among both military enlisted people and officers. This veteran's group explains why --

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donal...b6946f3ead0874

    “Donald Trump is panicking,” a new video from VoteVets said. “Finding any excuse to show up in military communities. He knows if the election were held today, he’d lose the military vote in a landslide.”

    A new poll from Military Times showed Trump’s favorability rate plunging among both active-duty troops and officers. Perhaps more significantly, 41 percent plan to vote for former Vice President Joe Biden versus 37 percent for Trump.

    Vote Vets said there was a simple reason for it.

    “Because Donald Trump disrespects those who serve,” the narrator said, then listed all of the ways the president had failed to protect the troops, including the Russian bounty scandal.

    “Trump’s refusal to defend America’s national security is dangerous,” the spot noted. ”His refusal to stand up for our troops is humiliating. His threat to deploy active-duty troops against American citizens is unconstitutional.”
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  17. #17
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Not polling, per se, but a number of the 'betting markets' show the race tightening, some even pulling even.

    My experience, though, is that these venues tend to be quite volative and reactive. So, grain of salt --

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/s...153149210.html
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  18. #18
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    #16.
    No wonder he's trying to shut down the Stars ad Stripes.

  19. #19
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    You are all WRONG
    Quote Originally Posted by Sky Blue View Post
    Trump brokers Serbia/Kosovo peace deal

    1.4 Million New Jobs added in August

    Unemployment drops nearly 2%

    Trump approval up to 52%
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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  20. #20
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by John Meachen View Post
    I found it interesting last weekend to read an assessment of the American political landscape that gave the author's opinion that an atheist couldn't hope to be elected.
    Interesting and there is probably some truth in that statement.
    One of the big cultural differences between our countries shows in a statement a few years ago by one of our more prominent politicians, "to actively promote oneself as being a "Christian" here in NZ is political suicide".
    There have been quite a few attempts to establish a "Christian" party, with very limited and only short term success. The voters just wont wear it.

    John Welsford
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  21. #21
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by john welsford View Post
    Interesting and there is probably some truth in that statement.
    One of the big cultural differences between our countries shows in a statement a few years ago by one of our more prominent politicians, "to actively promote oneself as being a "Christian" here in NZ is political suicide".
    There have been quite a few attempts to establish a "Christian" party, with very limited and only short term success. The voters just wont wear it.

    John Welsford
    Damn right, a "Christian" political party implies that Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists, atheists, et al are bad people.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

    The power of the web: Anyone can post anything on the web
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  22. #22
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Even presidential candidates who have lost really badly still get about 40% of the votes.
    “Eventually, all things merge into one, and a river runs through it. The river was cut by the world's great flood and runs over rocks from the basement of time. On some of those rocks are timeless raindrops. Under the rocks are the words, and some of the words are theirs."

  23. #23
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by rbgarr View Post
    Even presidential candidates who have lost really badly still get about 40% of the votes.
    Or something like that. It's an interesting pattern.

    What's weird, though, is that a sitting president - who's destined to go down in history as one of the worst ever (many historians are now saying THE worst) - will likely get near to 50%.

    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  24. #24
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    He only got 46.1% last time, as opposed to Clinton's 48.2%. It isn't looking at all like he'll do as well this year.

    I'd be very surprised if he didn't top all the 'ten worst' lists for a century at least.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

    Richard Feynman

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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Worst prisoner?

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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by Canoeyawl View Post
    Worst prisoner?
    Worst gallows humor?
    Rattling the teacups.

  27. #27
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by oznabrag View Post
    Worst gallows humor?
    What would a noose do to his hair?

  28. #28
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Hope we get to find out. JayInOz

  29. #29
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by Peerie Maa View Post
    Damn right, a "Christian" political party implies that Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists, atheists, et al are bad people.
    You're right, NZ is one of the least religious countries, but is also one of those with the greatest religious freedom and tolerance.
    We had a Mosque very badly damaged in an earthquake a while back, and a Methodist congregation nearby made their church available until the Mosque was replaced. Thats really good example of how things should be in my opinion.


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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by skuthorp View Post
    #16.
    No wonder he's trying to shut down the Stars ad Stripes.
    Fake news, do some homework.

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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    He only got 46.1% last time, as opposed to Clinton's 48.2%. It isn't looking at all like he'll do as well this year.

    I'd be very surprised if he didn't top all the 'ten worst' lists for a century at least.
    Exactly.

    Jeff C

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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    CBS latest says Biden leads by 10%, and none of Trump's flailing, cynical, disingenuous efforts are gaining traction --

    https://www.cbsnews.com/video/joe-bi...racker-poll/#x
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post

    I'd be very surprised if he didn't top all the 'ten worst' lists for a century at least.
    best worst president ever?
    Simpler is better, except when complicated looks really cool.

  34. #34
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    One reporter on the Sunday talking heads described the election polls as "narrowing" and sent a chill up my spine. Is there any evidence of this? I thought that Biden was ahead and staying there.

  35. #35
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    Default Re: Presidential Polling Update

    Quote Originally Posted by CWSmith View Post
    One reporter on the Sunday talking heads described the election polls as "narrowing" and sent a chill up my spine. Is there any evidence of this? I thought that Biden was ahead and staying there.
    Yes, there is evidence.

    First - with some polls. More the R-leaning polls, but not totally.

    Second - in some of the 'battleground' states

    Third - in the 'betting markets', they're now essentially even. Not polling - and way too volatile to put much weight on this soon, but data points.

    OTOH - there are also some states that started out as R gimmees that are now tightening. Last aggregate I saw for Tejas had Trump up only by 2 points. That's be huge.
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

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