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  1. #1
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    Default COVID in Texas

    The nightly news just stated that 1 in 4 people tested in Texas are testing positive.

    Make of that what you will.

  2. #2
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    WOW!!! We haven't had a single positive test in 10 days in our province. Other parts of our nation have some much higher numbers. I think Saskatchewan had 16 positives today? Or maybe I'm mis remembering that. But 1 in 4 in a state with as many people as Texas has....... That's going to destroy a lot of families.
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  3. #3
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    Vermont percentage is 1.1% of tests are positive. People here wear masks & distance - it's really that simple.
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    It’s hitting the Hispanic community especially hard. Houston and and the Rio Grande valley. Many rural counties in other parts of the state have very few cases.
    Fight Entropy, build a wooden boat!

  5. #5
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    Quote Originally Posted by Reynard38 View Post
    It’s hitting the Hispanic community especially hard. Houston and and the Rio Grande valley. Many rural counties in other parts of the state have very few cases.

    Certainly some if the Rio Grande valley was hit hard, but there are few rural areas that havecexcaped. Last week I was spot checking a few counties in various parts of the state, I was surprised at how few had low numbers.

  6. #6
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    Test positivity rate is an interesting indicator. It definitely is a leading indicator of a surge/ new wave. But if you study it a lot if the countries or states that have gone through a complete cycle, it often ( not always) is a lagging indicator of the downside of a wave. This makes sense if you think about it. Once a plataeu has been established and a downward sloie is occurring, fewer people are getting who are not sick. That is definitely what's is happening in Texas right now. We are 25% off our peak 7 day average of new cases, overall testing is going way down, and positivity rate is increasing. It wouldn't be too hard for the nightly news to look at the numerator and denominator to see why the ratio is high, but that would not serve their panic porn ends.

  7. #7
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    Daily death rate is still twice what it was a month ago and showing no sign of decreasing.

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Test positivity rate is an interesting indicator. It definitely is a leading indicator of a surge/ new wave. But if you study it a lot if the countries or states that have gone through a complete cycle, it often ( not always) is a lagging indicator of the downside of a wave. This makes sense if you think about it. Once a plataeu has been established and a downward sloie is occurring, fewer people are getting who are not sick. That is definitely what's is happening in Texas right now. We are 25% off our peak 7 day average of new cases, overall testing is going way down, and positivity rate is increasing. It wouldn't be too hard for the nightly news to look at the numerator and denominator to see why the ratio is high, but that would not serve their panic porn ends.

  8. #8
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    Quote Originally Posted by CWSmith View Post
    Daily death rate is still twice what it was a month ago and showing no sign of decreasing.
    Simply not true. The 7 day average peaked at 227 on August 4th, and is now at 184. That's a 19 percent decrease. Still early to say for sure, but to say it shows no signs of decreasing is simply a lie.

  9. #9
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Simply not true. The 7 day average peaked at 227 on August 4th, and is now at 184. That's a 19 percent decrease. Still early to say for sure, but to say it shows no signs of decreasing is simply a lie.
    Seriously? You say you read all these scientific papers and you cite a one day result? I'm looking at multiple sources and all I can say is that I am ecstatic that I am not in Texas, Florida, Arizona, Arkansas or a host of other places right now that are not taking this seriously.

  10. #10
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    Quote Originally Posted by CWSmith View Post
    Seriously? You say you read all these scientific papers and you cite a one day result? I'm looking at multiple sources and all I can say is that I am ecstatic that I am not in Texas, Florida, Arizona, Arkansas or a host of other places right now that are not taking this seriously.
    I cited the latest 7vday moving average off if this site:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/

    Arizona is well past its peak, las is Florida (their spike today was due to one clinic which had not been reporting their cases for weeks). Haven't checked on Arkansas in a while, will get back to you on that (since you are so statistically impaired, I am glad to help)

  11. #11
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    Quote Originally Posted by CWSmith View Post
    Daily death rate is still twice what it was a month ago and showing no sign of decreasing.
    Natural selection at work………… too soon to see if it does enough damage to the young for evolution to take a hand.

  12. #12
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    panic porn ends.
    Is it panic porn, or is it merely trying to tell people that this is bloody serious and that if precautions are not taken, it would be far worse?

    Is it "panic porn" if you tell people that if they smoke, they are more likely to die?

    Is it "panic porn" if you point out that drinking 25 beers and driving is dangerous?

    Is it "panic porn" when people point out that hazardous activities are hazardous?

    As an Aussie, I worry about you Texans, with so many of you squeezed into such a small area. It's OK for us, but for those living in such tiny states it must be claustrophobic. You should try moving to open spaces.

  13. #13
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    "Panic Porn" is a term used by people doing their best to downplay the issues because they might inconvenience them. They use it to describe people who take it seriously - you know, those dummies like doctors & public health experts.
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    Quote Originally Posted by Garret View Post
    "Panic Porn" is a term used by people doing their best to downplay the issues because they might inconvenience them. They use it to describe people who take it seriously - you know, those dummies like doctors & public health experts.
    Ya. My wife has been taking it seriously for months, and she's got a PhD in her area of medical research. It's not related to Covid 19, but she's had research fellowships and taught research methods and statistics at "Ivy League" unis so when she says that her connections are worried, it's time to get worried.

  15. #15
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    Quote Originally Posted by Chris249 View Post
    Is it panic porn, or is it merely trying to tell people that this is bloody serious and that if precautions are not taken, it would be far worse?

    Is it "panic porn" if you tell people that if they smoke, they are more likely to die?

    Is it "panic porn" if you point out that drinking 25 beers and driving is dangerous?

    Is it "panic porn" when people point out that hazardous activities are hazardous?

    As an Aussie, I worry about you Texans, with so many of you squeezed into such a small area. It's OK for us, but for those living in such tiny states it must be claustrophobic. You should try moving to open spaces.
    Nothing wrong with telling people this is bloody serious, that I agree with. But the media reporting has been quite sloppy in getting objective, accurate information to people and it is always worded towards: the end is near. I would be willing to bet that the nightly news referenced in the nightly news said nothing about the count of new cases in Texas has been declining for almost a month, that the death count is showing signs of following suit, etc.

  16. #16
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    Default COVID in Texas

    Well, they had 225 today so....

    I am happy to be in NH right now. And I drove around the Portland waterfront yesterday and can understand why cases are pretty low in ME and NH. Mask usage is pretty good everywhere I have been. Georgia?? Not so much.


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  17. #17
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Wilkinson View Post
    Well, they had 225 today so....

    I am happy to be in NH right now. And I drove around the Portland waterfront yesterday and can understand why cases are pretty low in ME and NH. Mask usage is pretty good everywhere I have been. Georgia?? Not so much.


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    Yes, New Hampshire has done markedly better than Texas, 308 deaths per million vs 318.

    OTOH Texas has a case fatality rate if 1.7%, vs New Hampshire's of 6.1%. I suppose our healthcare system is superior. To be expected, we get most things like that right.
    Last edited by peb; 08-12-2020 at 10:20 PM.

  18. #18
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Yes, New Hampshire has done markedly better than Texas, 308 deaths per million vs 318.

    OTOH Texas has a case fatality rate if 1.7%, vs New Hampshire's of 6.1%. I suppose our healthcare system is superior. To be expected, we get most things like that right.
    NH has a far older population than Texas (2nd oldest avg. age - just behind Maine & just ahead of #3 Vermont) - so the # of deaths is bound to be higher. However when you compare # of cases per 100,000 NH is 506 & Texas is 1744. IOW over 3 times the infection rate. TX is 6 times Vermont's rate.

    https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases
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  19. #19
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Yes, New Hampshire has done markedly better than Texas, 308 deaths per million vs 318.

    OTOH Texas has a case fatality rate if 1.7%, vs New Hampshire's of 6.1%. I suppose our healthcare system is superior. To be expected, we get most things like that right.
    NH currently has less than 500 total active cases and fewer than 5 deaths per day. How does that compare to Texas today?
    Looking at the graphs of the two states tells me two things.
    1. NH got hit with the virus spread earlier, before as much was known about how to slow the spread
    2. NH has been taking steps to slow that spread such as wearing masks/distancing
    Precisely why I am happy to be in NH right now.
    Tom

  20. #20
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Wilkinson View Post
    NH currently has less than 500 total active cases and fewer than 5 deaths per day. How does that compare to Texas today?
    Looking at the graphs of the two states tells me two things.
    1. NH got hit with the virus spread earlier, before as much was known about how to slow the spread
    2. NH has been taking steps to slow that spread such as wearing masks/distancing
    Precisely why I am happy to be in NH right now.
    I understand, and it makes sense. I was being rather a smart-alec, sorry about that.

  21. #21
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    "Test positivity rate" is a very squishy number if the criteria for testing are not stated. Are they testing a truly random sample of the population? Or a subset with a high likelihood of being positive? So many of the sources seem to be contaminated by political considerations I generally wait for something in the Lancet or NEMJ; though they have had their hiccups too

  22. #22
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    Quote Originally Posted by David W Pratt View Post
    "Test positivity rate" is a very squishy number if the criteria for testing are not stated. Are they testing a truly random sample of the population? Or a subset with a high likelihood of being positive? So many of the sources seem to be contaminated by political considerations I generally wait for something in the Lancet or NEMJ; though they have had their hiccups too
    I agree. People make too much out it. And by people, in this case I mean politicians.

  23. #23
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    588 cases and only 10 deaths so far in our county of 40,000. Certainly numbers are higher in urban areas and the valley. The test positivity rate in our county has been less than 10%. It's certainly a good time to live in a small town.

  24. #24
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    Quote Originally Posted by pkrone View Post
    588 cases and only 10 deaths so far in our county of 40,000. Certainly numbers are higher in urban areas and the valley. The test positivity rate in our county has been less than 10%. It's certainly a good time to live in a small town.
    This really supports my post #6 and does not contradict it at all. It also shows how some people become too complacent. "Only 10 deaths", well if we normalize that to deaths per million, it becomes 250. The average for the state of Texas is 318, so yes your county is doing better, but not substantially so. You have 14,700 cases per million, Texas as a whole has 18,000 cases per million, again a little better, but completely inline with the national average of 16K/million.

    I have had this same conversation with family and friends who live in small town Texas, most of them think they are doing great, all of the problem is in Houston or Dallas. Well, Harris County only has 201 deaths per million, less than your home county.

    The virus is remarkably well spread. Surprisingly so based on what we thought back in March and April.

  25. #25
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    Quote Originally Posted by pkrone View Post
    588 cases and only 10 deaths so far in our county of 40,000. Certainly numbers are higher in urban areas and the valley. The test positivity rate in our county has been less than 10%. It's certainly a good time to live in a small town.
    36 cases and ONE death in our county of 55,000. The test positivity rate is 0.4% state wide (no county data available). I would much rather be in a small town in Maine than anywhere in Texas. There are, of course, other reasons for that preference that are as important such as the weather. We are at the end of a heat wave where daytime highs hit 78-82 for five days straight. I was sure I was going to die.
    Last edited by Todd D; 08-13-2020 at 07:56 AM.

  26. #26
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    You want objective - How about this?

    https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/...01e8b9cafc8b83
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
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  27. #27
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    Quote Originally Posted by Canoez View Post
    You want objective - How about this?

    https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/...01e8b9cafc8b83
    Have I posted anything that differs materially from that site?

    https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/...01e8b9cafc8b83

    You can see both the 7 day average of new cases has been falling for quite some time and there are signs the daily number of deaths are decreasing. The latter fact is what was explicitly denied earlier on in this thread.

  28. #28
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Have I posted anything that differs materially from that site?

    https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/...01e8b9cafc8b83

    You can see both the 7 day average of new cases has been falling for quite some time and there are signs the daily number of deaths are decreasing. The latter fact is what was explicitly denied earlier on in this thread.

    Did I argue the fact before you bite my head off?

    I don't think you will find a single person on this thread who isn't happy to see the numbers declining. What I do think you will find is that people here are still horrified at the high daily infection numbers and the large numbers of deaths even as they are declining.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
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  29. #29
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    Quote Originally Posted by Canoez View Post
    Did I argue the fact before you bite my head off?

    I don't think you will find a single person on this thread who isn't happy to see the numbers declining. What I do think you will find is that people here are still horrified at the high daily infection numbers and the large numbers of deaths even as they are declining.
    No you did not, nor did I bite your head off. It was not clear to me as to why you were posting that site as objective, since I am the one who mentioned objective data, I assumed it had something to do with myself. So I simply, and politely pointed out that I had not posted anything that differs from that site and showed how it backed up my earlier claims. Don't be so sensitive.


    As to people who are not happy to see the numbers declining. Is that not a strawman argument? As I have not said anyone was unhappy to see the numbers declining. I have simply pointed out a couple of facts:

    daily deaths do show signs of declining, the numbers are fairly evenly distributed across the state. I have made no assumptions about who is happy with the situation or not. I am not, to be clear. I wish this would have never happened, I wish Texas would have been able to continue to be a low impacted state as it was in the spring. That did not happen, and it looks like it won't happen for many regions, barring a vaccine.

  30. #30
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    It isn't true that the spread of the virus lowers the IQ and reduces compassion in the general population. It's like Trump; it only seems like it. What is really happening is it is exposing the dearth of cognition among people with expectations of privilege and leisure entertainment, the way Trump exposed the whole basket of nazis and their deplorable cohort.

    Maybe if, instead of telling people the virus can be deadly, we told them it greatly increases the chances of obesity and acne, and that wearing a mask will get you drunk and laid. It's not like they'd be able to tell the difference. Some of 'em.

    Does this coronavirus make my ass look big?
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  31. #31
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Mahan View Post
    wearing a mask will get you drunk and laid
    Sadly, I'm still spending just as much to get drunk when I'm wearing a mask.

    Maybe I need a mask with less ventilation?

  32. #32
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    Quote Originally Posted by Chris249 View Post
    Sadly, I'm still spending just as much to get drunk when I'm wearing a mask.

    Maybe I need a mask with less ventilation?
    No kidding... red wine consumption at my house has been pretty high with the lockdown. However, my wife's recent cholesterol panel was the lowest its ever been.

  33. #33
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    Just took a peek at the number of deaths per million in a few states.

    Texas, 318
    Georgia 420
    New Hampshire 320
    South Carolina 416
    Florida 408

    New York 1690
    New Jersey 1797
    Massachusetts 1272
    Connecticut 1248

    And the news media absolutely LOVES this pandemic. Viewership is up, they get to run the same story every night instead of actually having to dig for interesting material.
    Last edited by Reynard38; 08-13-2020 at 07:30 AM.
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  34. #34
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    Quote Originally Posted by Reynard38 View Post
    Just took a peek at the number of deaths per million in a few states.

    Texas, 318
    Georgia 420
    New Hampshire 320
    South Carolina 416
    Florida 408

    New York 1690
    New Jersey 1797
    Massachusetts 1272
    Connecticut 1248
    And those numbers are skewed based on a few of things. Healthcare systems were overrun in New York. Treatment options were often wrong in the early days. And there were some really bad decisions regarding nursing homes at those times. We have gotten better at dealing with the virus. In general, if you are in an area that got hit early, you are unlucky. Later is better.

  35. #35
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    Default Re: COVID in Texas

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    And those numbers are skewed based on a few of things. Healthcare systems were overrun in New York. Treatment options were often wrong in the early days. And there were some really bad decisions regarding nursing homes at those times. We have gotten better at dealing with the virus. In general, if you are in an area that got hit early, you are unlucky. Later is better.
    Never is better.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
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