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Thread: COVID death rate

  1. #1
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    Default COVID death rate

    The COVID death rate in the USA is now twice what it was in late June.

    I know that some will be along soon to say how it's a difficult or unreliable statistic to obtain. They will argue it has nothing to do with wearing masks or going to parties. You'll probably they often come from the states with the highest per capita death rates.

    Ignore the lies and excuses. Trump has made it unpatriotic to tell the truth. Some governors and school administrators are suppressing the facts. We will hold them accountable.

    The death rate has doubled in about the last 6 weeks while some states (like New York, the previous epicenter of the pandemic) have reduced their deaths to near zero.

  2. #2
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    Default Re: COVID death rate

    We could do better. I suspect our data reporting is better than many parts of the world. Worse than some.

    C3E9D074-3500-4CDA-B636-9EC4D33E4008.jpg

  3. #3
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    Default Re: COVID death rate

    Interesting plot. Look at the rate of increase in the USA, Mexico and Columbia vs the rate of increase in the other countries.

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    Default Re: COVID death rate

    a very interesting point: look at Japan and Vietnam
    "If you think you are too small to make a difference, try sleeping with a mosquito"

    -Dalai Lama

  5. #5
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    Default Re: COVID death rate

    Antibody Tests Point To Lower Death Rate For The Coronavirus Than First Thought

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...OXs-njO-sva1rc


    Mounting evidence suggests the coronavirus is more common and less deadly than it first appeared.The evidence comes from tests that detect antibodies to the coronavirus in a person's blood rather than the virus itself.
    The tests are finding large numbers of people in the U.S. who were infected but never became seriously ill. And when these mild infections are included in coronavirus statistics, the virus appears less dangerous.
    "The current best estimates for the infection fatality risk are between 0.5% and 1%," says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
    That's in contrast with death rates of 5% or more based on calculations that included only people who got sick enough to be diagnosed with tests that detect the presence of virus in a person's body.
    “Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime.”― Mark Twain,


  6. #6
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    Default Re: COVID death rate

    Quote Originally Posted by BrianW View Post
    Antibody Tests Point To Lower Death Rate For The Coronavirus Than First Thought

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...OXs-njO-sva1rc
    So if it takes 60% infection of the population for herd immunity that’s roughly 180,000,000 people. .5% of that is 900,000 deaths directly related to the virus. Excess deaths could be a chunk above that.

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    Default Re: COVID death rate

    There has never been a fully successful human Covid virus vaccine developed. It's about time we got used to the idea that permanent infection, an increased death rate, a drastic shortening of lifespan and likely side effects involving our organs and brain function as 'normal' and consider where that leaves the younger generation into their future. Partisan politics I think will only be a hindrance and make matters worse, but the generation of politicians, and our political systems are particularly unsuited for the new world order, governed by a virus.
    Once agai I quote the WHO right at the beginning of this in January
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/scien...ganisation-WHO

  8. #8
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    Default Re: COVID death rate

    "The current best estimates for the infection fatality risk are between 0.5% and 1%," says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
    Excuse me, but I have been pointing this out in this forum since March. It may be as low as 0.35%.

    That's the problem with so many people being scientifically ignorant. The press parrots the case fatality ratio, which experts have warned is next to useless in the middle of the pandemic, and people think that it represents your odds of dying if you get sick. Then, when it inevitably drops, they think it means the pandemic is not so bad as we thought. Wrong on both counts.

  9. #9
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    Default Re: COVID death rate

    Quote Originally Posted by skuthorp View Post
    It's about time we got used to the idea that permanent infection, an increased death rate, a drastic shortening of lifespan and likely side effects involving our organs and brain function as 'normal' and consider where that leaves the younger generation into their future.
    Not true. It is very likely we will have a vaccine that passed Phase 3 by October. In Brazil we hope to be vaccinating the old and sick by January.

  10. #10
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    Default Re: COVID death rate

    Quote Originally Posted by LeeG View Post
    So if it takes 60% infection of the population for herd immunity that’s roughly 180,000,000 people. .5% of that is 900,000 deaths directly related to the virus. Excess deaths could be a chunk above that.
    The 60 percent number is starting to be questioned on multiple fronts. Like many things we thought we knew early on, it may very well be false.

    Here is one of the latest:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....23.20160762v1
    Last edited by peb; 08-10-2020 at 09:11 AM.

  11. #11
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    Default Re: COVID death rate

    Covid virus history says otherwise……..but we can only hope. Certainly the incentive is high…….

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    Default Re: COVID death rate

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    The 60 percent number is starting to be questioned on multiple fronts. Like many things we thought we knew early on, it may very well be false.

    Here is one of the latest:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....full.pdf+html
    Link doesn’t work. Anything can be questioned. Is there some kind of scientific consensus or is everything unknown because there are questions and degrees uncertainty?

  13. #13
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    Default Re: COVID death rate

    Re covid 19, hasn't been round long enough for science to know what the virus can, and is doing.
    One recovered younger patient here has lost the ability to cough with out an external stimulus. Nerves in the spine are effected. There's a long way to go yet.

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    Default Re: COVID death rate

    I just had a 20-something in the office - relatively new, non-compliant diabetic, 'won't wear a mask'. I got to see him because the provider that had initially accepted him, refused. He's a good ol' boy, 'knows more' than I, and everybody else, does. Wanted to debate C19/stats. 'death rate is only 0.03%'. I tried to steer him to a local expert, which he laughed at. Can't make some people be smart. But you can discharge them from your practice.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  15. #15
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    Default Re: COVID death rate

    Quote Originally Posted by LeeG View Post
    Link doesn’t work. Anything can be questioned. Is there some kind of scientific consensus or is everything unknown because there are questions and degrees uncertainty?
    Fixed the link. There is no scientific consensus on much of the details about COVID-19, including the whole concept of herd immunity. So scientists are still working. All we can do is follow their progress. Posting the statement that herd immunity takes 60% infection rate is just as questionable as the science of the paper I posted, or for that matter the idea of T-Cell based cross immunity (which is path of science that is trying to determine immune system response).


    What we do know is that there are definite regions who have not seen any second wave. This is, as yet, largely unexplained, but many people are starting to theorize that places such as Sweden, New York, New Jersey have possibly reached herd immunity. If they have, perhaps they hit a 60% threshold, but more likely is the 60% threshold is not necessary.

  16. #16
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    Default Re: COVID death rate

    Quote Originally Posted by George. View Post
    Not true. It is very likely we will have a vaccine that passed Phase 3 by October. In Brazil we hope to be vaccinating the old and sick by January.
    Well George., be careful, you are almost joining me as a covid denier on this forum.

  17. #17
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    Default Re: COVID death rate

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Fixed the link. There is no scientific consensus on much of the details about COVID-19, including the whole concept of herd immunity. So scientists are still working. All we can do is follow their progress. Posting the statement that herd immunity takes 60% infection rate is just as questionable as the science of the paper I posted, or for that matter the idea of T-Cell based cross immunity (which is path of science that is trying to determine immune system response).


    What we do know is that there are definite regions who have not seen any second wave. This is, as yet, largely unexplained, but many people are starting to theorize that places such as Sweden, New York, New Jersey have possibly reached herd immunity. If they have, perhaps they hit a 60% threshold, but more likely is the 60% threshold is not necessary.
    NJ is on the uptick because of idiots from out of state bringing it in for "house" and "Mansion" parties. They just broke one up in Howell Township last night. 300 guests from out of town that had to pay to be there.

    https://dailyvoice.com/new-jersey/at...rtiers/792212/
    "If you think you are too small to make a difference, try sleeping with a mosquito"

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  18. #18
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    Default Re: COVID death rate

    Quote Originally Posted by Art Haberland View Post
    NJ is on the uptick because of idiots from out of state bringing it in for "house" and "Mansion" parties. They just broke one up in Howell Township last night. 300 guests from out of town that had to pay to be there.

    https://dailyvoice.com/new-jersey/at...rtiers/792212/
    I see no uptick for New Jersey. Their seven day average of new cases has been in the 300-400 range since aroudn June 20th:

    https://www.worldometers.info/corona...sa/new-jersey/

    Their test positivity rate has been sub 5% since the beginning of May:

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/...tes/new-jersey

    Making claims that they are on an uptick is at best false reporting due to ignorance and laziness.

  19. #19
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    Default Re: COVID death rate

    The only numbers that matter:

    165,756 dead
    5,210,442 infected

  20. #20
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    Default Re: COVID death rate

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Well George., be careful, you are almost joining me as a covid denier on this forum.
    I am neither a denier nor a believer. I follow the science wherever it leads. The Oxford vaccine being tested in Brazil is doing very well so far, and it would be surprising if it turned out to not be helpful. What we learned about the virus so far is that it is definitely succeptible to vaccines.

    Still, hundreds of thousands more will die, in the US and in Brazil, before we get there.

  21. #21
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    Default Re: COVID death rate

    I haven't heard much recent news on vaccine studies. Found this:
    The Oxford vaccine prompted an antibody response within 28 days and a T-cell response within 14 days, according to the results published Monday. Neutralizing antibodies -- so-called because they can neutralize the virus -- were detected in most participants after one shot, and in all of them after two.
    Encouraging, to say the least.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  22. #22
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    Default Re: COVID death rate

    when I mean uptick, Peb, I am talking about the transmission rate. Back in early June we were down to .8%. This meant that each person infected less than 1 person on average. We are now back up to 1.35%.

    https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/...alculated.html
    "If you think you are too small to make a difference, try sleeping with a mosquito"

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  23. #23
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    Default Re: COVID death rate

    Morbidity, people. It doesn't matter what the death rate is if you end up on the wrong side of this. You could live and still be extremely screwed up for the rest of your life.

    I wouldn't wish that on anyone.

    Jeff C

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    Quote Originally Posted by leikec View Post
    Morbidity, people. It doesn't matter what the death rate is if you end up on the wrong side of this. You could live and still be extremely screwed up for the rest of your life.

    I wouldn't wish that on anyone.

    Jeff C

    An awful lot of people pay no attention to that.


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    Tom

  25. #25
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    Default Re: COVID death rate

    Quote Originally Posted by Art Haberland View Post
    when I mean uptick, Peb, I am talking about the transmission rate. Back in early June we were down to .8%. This meant that each person infected less than 1 person on average. We are now back up to 1.35%.

    https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/...alculated.html
    Fair enough. I have found the various sites that try to calculate the rt at any given time is all over the page. You article suggests New Jersey's is 1.35, yet rt.live is .95, and has been flat for some time.

  26. #26
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    Default Re: COVID death rate

    All I am certain of, after September, things will get back to normal here in NJ.. It's the price we pay for having so much beach
    "If you think you are too small to make a difference, try sleeping with a mosquito"

    -Dalai Lama

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    Default Re: COVID death rate

    Quote Originally Posted by Art Haberland View Post
    All I am certain of, after September, things will get back to normal here in NJ.. It's the price we pay for having so much beach
    Ditto here. We've had a wild weekend with grockles.

    Nick

    PS Saw this on the news https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-53724921

  28. #28
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    Default Re: COVID death rate

    Quote Originally Posted by Art Haberland View Post
    All I am certain of, after September, things will get back to normal here in NJ.. It's the price we pay for having so much beach
    By "normal" do you mean what was normal 2 months ago, or what was normal last year?

  29. #29
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    Default Re: COVID death rate

    We've not had a case of community transmission for over 100 days now, our death rate per million is about 4.5, the USA is over 100 times that, same with several other countries. I wish that all had done the same lockdown as we'd done, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    So many families devastated, so many more people ill, many of those who will be damaged for life.

    John Welsford
    An expert is but a beginner with experience.

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