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Thread: Voting by mail

  1. #36
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    Default

    But the hypothesis is at its heart incorrect. A few more voters doesn't prove the hypothesis as the general case.

    Voter turnout averages less than 50% in most elections. That majority of all registered voters who fail to vote? They're still by-and-large not voting.

    Not because it's too much hassle to go to the polls. They're not voting for some other reason(s): apathy, disgust, they don't actually care, ...

    Turning the electoral system upside down, increasing what little ballot fraud actually does exist, and slowing down the counting process immensely seems a rather draconian solution for very little benefit.

    Might also add the the law defines "election day, not "election fortnight".

    Federal Law: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/2/7

    The Tuesday next after the 1st Monday in November, in every even numbered year, is established as the day for the election,....

    Same with Washington State law (https://apps.leg.wa.gov/RCW/default....ite=29A.04.321) and Oregon state law (https://www.oregonlegislature.gov/bi...rs/ors254.html)

    It doesn't define elections as taking place over the several weeks prior to the defined day.
    You would not enjoy Nietzsche, sir. He is fundamentally unsound. ó P.G. Wodehouse (Carry On, Jeeves)

  2. #37
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    Default Re: Voting by mail

    YOUR stated hypothesis - the one you have set out to disprove - was, "voter turnout rates are low because it is inconvenient to go to the polls on Election Day."

    But you've mis-stated the rationale behind VBM.

    But even if someone WERE claiming your construction were the sole reason - rather than one of several, as alluded to in my posts - your data doesn't argue your case. The opposite in fact.

    And now you want to argue that VBM is (what... bad? illegal? perverse?) because the statute language specifies a 'voting day', and not a voting period with a ballot turn-in deadline?

    I don't know what to say - because you're all over the map. I have no idea at this point WHAT you're arguing, precisely. Unless it's the straw man you set up as 'the hypothesis'?


    David G
    Harbor Woodworks
    https://www.facebook.com/HarborWoodworks/

    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  3. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    YOUR stated hypothesis - the one you have set out to disprove - was, "[COLOR=#333333]voter turnout rates are low because it is inconvenient to go to the polls on Election Day."
    Not my hypothesis. That's the stated rationale for it by the people who pushed for it.

    They're wrong. They were wrong then and they are wrong now.

    I'm going to agree to disagree on this.
    You would not enjoy Nietzsche, sir. He is fundamentally unsound. ó P.G. Wodehouse (Carry On, Jeeves)

  4. #39
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    Default Re: Voting by mail

    Quote Originally Posted by Nicholas Carey View Post
    Not my hypothesis. That's the stated rationale for it by the people who pushed for it.

    They're wrong. They were wrong then and they are wrong now.

    I'm going to agree to disagree on this.
    Are you saying it was sold in Washington solely with that argument? I would find that hard to believe...
    David G
    Harbor Woodworks
    https://www.facebook.com/HarborWoodworks/

    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  5. #40
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    Default Re: Voting by mail

    https://sweep.thedispatch.com/

    This analysis points out, based on the high number of absentee votes and mail in ballots that are rejected for reasons such as lacking a signature or arriving late, that a large percentage mail in bite could hurt Biden, a lot.

    I think democrats would be wise to consider this. From the article:

    Showing my math here. In 2016, about 23 percent of all votes were mailed. Given the pandemic, Iím assuming this number jumps to 40 percent. Looking at current polling, Iím also assuming that Biden voters will be three times as likely as Trump voters to vote by mail. Finally, assuming a 10 percent loss rate (failure of mailed ballots to arrive or make it back in time) and a 17 percent rejection rate, Iím rounding off to a 25 percent overall mailed ballot failure rate (although based on the current numbers in New York, 25 percent would be on the lowest end).

    This means that out of 100 voters, Joe Biden would be starting with 50 and Donald Trump with 45 (and five more voters are voting third party roughly tracking 2016ís popular vote outcome, but we are going to ignore them to make the math a little easier). Thirty of Bidenís voters would request a mailed ballot but only 23 of those would be returned and accepted. Heíd lose 14 percent of his voters to ballot failure in this scenario. On the flip side, only nine of Trumpís voters would request a mailed ballot and 7 would be counted. In that scenario, despite a 5-point lead, Biden ends up with 43 votes Ö same as Trump.

  6. #41
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    Default Re: Voting by mail

    Man, you can convince so called conservatives of anything.

  7. #42
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    Default Re: Voting by mail

    Quote Originally Posted by stromborg View Post
    Being able to participate in the ritual requires a certain level of privilege. Even with a "national holiday" there will always be those who have to go to work or are otherwise occupied.
    I lived in a couple of areas where voting in person was a 15 minute thing. Those who oppose vote by mail OUGHT to be screaming about long lines for in person voting.

    The 'beacon of democracy' should be very easy to vote in.
    How do we form a mutiny? Our new captain is navigating poorly.

  8. #43
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    Default Re: Voting by mail

    About in person voting: If you are challenged, it ought not be your burden to prove you are you. The person challenging you should have the burden to prove you are not the person you claim to be.

    I expect this November there will be more intimidation of in person voters than we've ever seen before.
    How do we form a mutiny? Our new captain is navigating poorly.

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