Page 136 of 136 FirstFirst ... 3686126135136
Results 4,726 to 4,758 of 4758

Thread: Novel Coronavirus

  1. #4726
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    Fredericton, New Brunswick
    Posts
    44,442

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    The optimism is justified for really serious expansion of vaccination programs starting in, say, April. By which time not only will both Pfizer and Moderna have significantly increased their production, but also because AstraZeneca may be coming to market. And production capacity will continue to increase significantly thereafter. Bear in mind that the majority of the many billions of doses promised (globally) for 2021 will probably be shipped in late Q2 and Q3.

    More of those will end up in rich countries first.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

  2. #4727
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Hills of Vermont, USA
    Posts
    38,165

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by TomF View Post
    The optimism is justified for really serious expansion of vaccination programs starting in, say, April. By which time not only will both Pfizer and Moderna have significantly increased their production, but also because AstraZeneca may be coming to market. And production capacity will continue to increase significantly thereafter. Bear in mind that the majority of the many billions of doses promised for 2021 will probably be shipped in late Q2 and Q3.
    That damn Biden- it's all his fault!
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

  3. #4728
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    13,619

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by SKIP KILPATRICK View Post
    I've seen several predictions of another 100,000 deaths by the end of March. That's one hell of a corner.

    I wish I had more confidence in your rosy perdiction!
    I would say 100K more deaths by the end if March is about right, and that number assumes that number of confirmed cases fall off quite a bit. As I said, numbers are still very high.

  4. #4729
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    13,619

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    And a bad sign is from Israel. They have lead the world in vaccinations. Of course they vaccinated elderly first. It seems possible that a single dose imparts little immunity on the elderly. I will have to find the article, but no real reduction in infections among people who received one dose. Which means that the vaccine is likely not as effective after 2 doses with elderly people.
    Last edited by peb; 01-22-2021 at 03:33 PM.

  5. #4730
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Port Stephens
    Posts
    24,562

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    And a bad sign is Israel. They have lead the world in vaccinations. If course they vaccinated elderly first. It seems possible that a single dise imparts little immunity on the elderly. I will have to find the article, but no real reduction in infections among people who received one dose. Which means that the vaccine is likely not as effective after 2 doses with elderly people.
    Might want to add something Peb.

  6. #4731
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    Cantão - Brazil
    Posts
    13,725

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    The UK variant is now also said to be more deadly. Ditch those cloth masks and get N95s or surgical!

  7. #4732
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    13,619

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by George. View Post
    The UK variant is now also said to be more deadly. Ditch those cloth masks and get N95s or surgical!
    Lets not get ahead of ourselves. The reports are that there "is some evidence" it is more deadly.

  8. #4733
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    13,619

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by RFNK View Post
    Might want to add something Peb.
    Well, I typed it on my phone, so it was poorly written. I apologize. But don't know what I should add. Care to be specific?

  9. #4734
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Location
    Walney, near Cumbria UK
    Posts
    52,377

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by George. View Post
    The UK variant is now also said to be more deadly. Ditch those cloth masks and get N95s or surgical!
    May be.
    Early evidence suggests the variant of coronavirus that emerged in the UK may be more deadly, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said.
    However, there remains huge uncertainty around the numbers - and vaccines are still expected to work.
    The data comes from mathematicians comparing death rates in people infected with either the new or the old versions of the virus.
    The new more infectious variant has already spread widely across the UK.
    Mr Johnson told a Downing Street briefing: "In addition to spreading more quickly, it also now appears that there is some evidence that the new variant - the variant that was first identified in London and the south east - may be associated with a higher degree of mortality.
    Possibly
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

    The power of the web: Anyone can post anything on the web
    The weakness of the web: Anyone can post anything on the web.

  10. #4735
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    Cantão - Brazil
    Posts
    13,725

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Lets not get ahead of ourselves. The reports are that there "is some evidence" it is more deadly.
    It is already established to be more contagious, which will lead to more deaths. It may also be more deadly. You worry about not getting ahead of yourself - I'll stick to the precautionary principle until the data is in.

  11. #4736
    Join Date
    May 2002
    Location
    the hills
    Posts
    59,980

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    hey, hey, hey no panic porn here, it’s only 400,000.

  12. #4737
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Port Stephens
    Posts
    24,562

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Well, I typed it on my phone, so it was poorly written. I apologize. But don't know what I should add. Care to be specific?
    You've left something out. It doesn't make sense as it is.

  13. #4738
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Northeast
    Posts
    17,639

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by Peerie Maa View Post
    May be.
    Possibly
    Seems the UK government tends to "telegraph" things before they happen or are indicated to be true.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  14. #4739
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    Fredericton, New Brunswick
    Posts
    44,442

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    More contagious by itself will lead to more deaths I agree, even if cases themselves have no greater likelihood to become severe. I saw some really worrisome modeling about how much quicker the "doubling time" of the # of cases in a geography could become if the more contagious variant becomes the dominant strain.

    And that's what always happens with more contagious variants.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

  15. #4740
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Nebraska
    Posts
    26,089

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    I don't know what vaccine the Israeli's are using; immune response after one shot is apparently variable, not only by age, but by vaccine type.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  16. #4741
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    northwestern Wisconsin
    Posts
    9,191

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by TomF View Post
    More contagious by itself will lead to more deaths I agree, even if cases themselves have no greater likelihood to become severe. I saw some really worrisome modeling about how much quicker the "doubling time" of the # of cases in a geography could become if the more contagious variant becomes the dominant strain.

    And that's what always happens with more contagious variants.
    I think the potential for faster mutations is also worrying--the more cases, the more chances to introduce new, and potentially more lethal/more infectious variants. Keep in mind I'm an English teacher and not an epidemiologist...

    Tom
    You don't have to be prepared as long as you're willing to suffer the consequences.

    www.tompamperin.com

  17. #4742
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Location
    Walney, near Cumbria UK
    Posts
    52,377

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by Canoez View Post
    Seems the UK government tends to "telegraph" things before they happen or are indicated to be true.
    It does depend on where you get your info. Some relay the facts as known now, others go for the sensational.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

    The power of the web: Anyone can post anything on the web
    The weakness of the web: Anyone can post anything on the web.

  18. #4743
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    northwestern Wisconsin
    Posts
    9,191

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Well, I typed it on my phone, so it was poorly written. I apologize. But don't know what I should add. Care to be specific?
    Perhaps he is suggesting a citation of a source? Not sure. I don't think there's anything grammatically missing.

    Tom
    You don't have to be prepared as long as you're willing to suffer the consequences.

    www.tompamperin.com

  19. #4744
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Location
    Walney, near Cumbria UK
    Posts
    52,377

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by George Jung View Post
    I don't know what vaccine the Israeli's are using; immune response after one shot is apparently variable, not only by age, but by vaccine type.
    Word was that Palestinians were at the bottom of the waiting list. Is there any mote info about that?
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

    The power of the web: Anyone can post anything on the web
    The weakness of the web: Anyone can post anything on the web.

  20. #4745
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Location
    Walney, near Cumbria UK
    Posts
    52,377

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by George Jung View Post
    I don't know what vaccine the Israeli's are using; immune response after one shot is apparently variable, not only by age, but by vaccine type.
    Word was that Palestinians were at the bottom of the waiting list. Is there any mote info about that?
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

    The power of the web: Anyone can post anything on the web
    The weakness of the web: Anyone can post anything on the web.

  21. #4746
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    13,619

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by RFNK View Post
    You've left something out. It doesn't make sense as it is.
    I will try again. The Israelis vaccinated the elderly first. So far, they see just as many cases among those with one dose, as the population at large. Which likely implies the vaccine's effectiveness is less with the elderly. IIRC, it's the Phyzer vaccine.

  22. #4747
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Nebraska
    Posts
    26,089

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Works in progress.

    https://www.biospace.com/article/j-a...-interim-data/

    Johnson & Johnson published interim Phase I/IIa data in the New England Journal of Medicine showing its single-dose COVID-19 vaccine candidate created an immune response that lasted at least 71 days. The length of time was associated with the interim data point in the participants aged 18 to 55 years.
    The data showed that the vaccine induced an immune response and was generally well-tolerated. After a single vaccination, neutralizing antibodies against COVID-19 were observed in more than 90% of volunteers at Day 29 and 100% of the volunteers between the ages of 18 and 55 at Day 57. The neutralizing antibodies were stable through Day 71, which was the latest available timepoint in the study. Data on participants over the age of 65 years is expected later this month.
    The company also expects topline data from its larger Phase III trial later this month as well. But, like the other large COVID-19 vaccine trials, is dependent on a percentage of people in the trial actually being diagnosed with COVID-19, so the schedule can be unpredictable. Once that data is available, J&J expects to submit an application for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) shortly afterwards, followed by applications to regulators globally.

    https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...e-vaccine-dose

    he cases are already beginning to emerge.
    When 85-year-old Colin Horseman was admitted to Doncaster Royal Infirmary in late December, it was for a suspected kidney infection. But not long afterwards he caught Covid-19 – at the time, roughly one in four people in hospital with the virus had acquired it there. He developed severe symptoms and was eventually put on a ventilator. A few days later, he died.
    At first glance, Horseman's situation may seem fairly typical, though no less tragic for it. After all, at least 84,767 people have now succumbed to the disease in the UK alone at the time of writing. But, as his son recently explained in a local newspaper, less than three weeks earlier he had been among the first people in the world to receive the initial dose of a Covid-19 vaccine – the Pfizer-BioNTech version. He was due to receive the second dose two days prior to his death.
    In fact, most vaccines require booster doses to work.
    Take the MMR – measles, mumps and rubella – vaccine, which is given to babies around the world to prevent these deadly childhood infections. Around 40% of people who have received just one dose are not protected from all three viruses, compared to 4% of those who have had their second. People in the former group are four times more likely to catch measles than those in the latter – and there have been outbreaks in places where a high proportion of people have not completed the full MMR vaccination schedule.
    "The reason that people are so keen on boosters and consider them so vital is that they kind of send you into this whole other kind of fine-tuning mode of your immune response," says Danny Altmann, professor of immunology at Imperial College London.

    https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/20...le-dose-debate

    Tucked inside the Food and Drug Administration’s analyses of Moderna and Pfizer's vaccines was a pleasant discovery: A single injection of either of the two-dose vaccines appears to provide strong protection against the coronavirus.
    With supplies of the vaccines limited — and hundreds of millions of people waiting for inoculation — this leaves epidemiologists grappling with a complicated question. Should the nation vaccinate fewer people with the best protection possible, or provide twice the number of people with a single shot, covering more of the population but with slightly weaker protection?
    Most Viewed Stories

    Vaccine Delivery Speeds Up In Mass.

    CommonHealth

    Jan 21, 2021



    Latest Mass. Map And Case Count: Breaking Down Coronavirus Here In Charts

    CommonHealth

    Mar 9, 2020



    Nearly 2,000 Vaccine Doses Spoiled At A Boston Hospital

    CommonHealth

    7 hours ago



    What To Know About Coronavirus Vaccine Distribution In Mass.

    CommonHealth

    Dec 23, 2020







    “[The] question is a really difficult moral and scientific one," says Barry Bloom, an epidemiologist at Harvard University. "If the second vaccine dose were superfluous, and we knew [it] didn’t extend the duration of protection, the principle would be to protect as many people and save as many lives as possible.”
    Get the latest on vaccine safety protocols, side effects, local distribution plans & more in your inbox with our coronavirus newsletter and alerts.

    The right answer, in other words, depends on science we haven't yet completed. For one, the protection from a single dose of Pfizer’s vaccine hasn’t been definitively tested. Scientists can only infer from the trial data that Pfizer’s vaccine would provide protective antibodies to roughly half of people who get one dose.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  23. #4748
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    victoria, australia. (1 address now)
    Posts
    64,808

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    #4747,
    The experiment continues George, and it's only 13 months or so since they started looking. I expect CV will give us quite a few more surprises in the coming few years, and you and I are lucky enough to live in developed countries.

  24. #4749
    Join Date
    May 2002
    Location
    the hills
    Posts
    59,980

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Looks like the second wave is finishing up. Not a bell curve.



  25. #4750
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    13,619

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    A bell curve represents a normal distribution over a random variable. Not for sure how that would apply to daily stats of covid. Did people expect that to be the case?

  26. #4751
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Nebraska
    Posts
    26,089

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    *Someone*, at the beginning of the pandemic, made such a claim. Looking a little 'thin' these days.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  27. #4752
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Northeast
    Posts
    17,639

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by George Jung View Post
    *Someone*, at the beginning of the pandemic, made such a claim. Looking a little 'thin' these days.
    Was looking a little 'thin' in those days, too.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  28. #4753
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Hills of Vermont, USA
    Posts
    38,165

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by Canoez View Post
    Was looking a little 'thin' in those days, too.
    Anyone know if he's OK? No posts in a long time.
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

  29. #4754
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Northeast
    Posts
    17,639

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by Garret View Post
    Anyone know if he's OK? No posts in a long time.
    Dunno. Snared in the sweep after the Capitol protests?
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  30. #4755
    Join Date
    Feb 2002
    Location
    Uki, NSW, Australia
    Posts
    32,957

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by Peerie Maa View Post
    Word was that Palestinians were at the bottom of the waiting list. Is there any mote info about that?
    They are going to vaccinate Palestinians working in Israel.
    ​In a world full of wonders, man invented boredom.

  31. #4756
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Location
    Stockholm, Sweden
    Posts
    577

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    I dont' think he meant a gaussian distribution, only that the shape of the one and only wave would look somewhat like a bell.

    Anyway, the general opinion in Sweden is also that the second wave is concluded and that we now see the beginning of the third wave driven by the latest Brittish export success. It's a race between vaccine deliveries and the third wave.

    It's unfortunate that we name the new mutations after the country where they first occured (although I just did that). It's not really their fault, and it's too easy to always blame foreigners.
    /Erik

  32. #4757
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    victoria, australia. (1 address now)
    Posts
    64,808

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    I would have thought that israel would be more sensible than to allow a major source of future virus infections and mutations to fester just next door? Of course the Palestinians, with good cause, may distrust any attempts by the Israelis to vacinate them.

  33. #4758
    Join Date
    Jul 2020
    Location
    Norwich, Norfolk, UK
    Posts
    420

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    The latest reports from the Astra Zenica and Pfizer Biontec vaccines, in the UK.
    They have cause an 80% drop in infected over 80's (the first to be vaccinated) needing hospital treatment and that's just after the first Jab.
    The one jab causes a 60% drop in the chance of passing the virus on.

    Also
    The J&J Jab single dose jab is a lot less effective against the virus, than a single jab of the AZ or PB , especially against the variants.

    The UK does 25% of the world DNA squencing total.

    About 40% of adults in the UK have been vaccinated, though it's much higher in my county and especially in my local area as our average age in our area is 57 is compared to the national average of 40.

    Someone said it won't be long before the Astra Zenica vaccine is brought to market.. It's not on the market as such, as the Oxford group that invented it, insisted it is sold on a cost price only.. That's why it's one of the cheapest Vaccines at £3 a dose against the Pfizer £25. the other vaccines are somewhere between for price...
    Just an amateur bodging away..

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •