Novel Coronavirus

[TomF]

The optimism is justified for really serious expansion of vaccination programs starting in, say, April. By which time not only will both Pfizer and Moderna have significantly increased their production, but also because AstraZeneca may be coming to market. And production capacity will continue to increase significantly thereafter. Bear in mind that the majority of the many billions of doses promised (globally) for 2021 will probably be shipped in late Q2 and Q3.

More of those will end up in rich countries first.

[Garret]

The optimism is justified for really serious expansion of vaccination programs starting in, say, April. By which time not only will both Pfizer and Moderna have significantly increased their production, but also because AstraZeneca may be coming to market. And production capacity will continue to increase significantly thereafter. Bear in mind that the majority of the many billions of doses promised for 2021 will probably be shipped in late Q2 and Q3.

That damn Biden- it's all his fault!

[peb]

I've seen several predictions of another 100,000 deaths by the end of March. That's one hell of a corner.

I wish I had more confidence in your rosy perdiction!

I would say 100K more deaths by the end if March is about right, and that number assumes that number of confirmed cases fall off quite a bit. As I said, numbers are still very high.

[peb]

And a bad sign is from Israel. They have lead the world in vaccinations. Of course they vaccinated elderly first. It seems possible that a single dose imparts little immunity on the elderly. I will have to find the article, but no real reduction in infections among people who received one dose. Which means that the vaccine is likely not as effective after 2 doses with elderly people.

[RFNK]

And a bad sign is Israel. They have lead the world in vaccinations. If course they vaccinated elderly first. It seems possible that a single dise imparts little immunity on the elderly. I will have to find the article, but no real reduction in infections among people who received one dose. Which means that the vaccine is likely not as effective after 2 doses with elderly people.

Might want to add something Peb.

[George.]

The UK variant is now also said to be more deadly. Ditch those cloth masks and get N95s or surgical!

[peb]

The UK variant is now also said to be more deadly. Ditch those cloth masks and get N95s or surgical!

Lets not get ahead of ourselves. The reports are that there "is some evidence" it is more deadly.

[peb]

Might want to add something Peb.

Well, I typed it on my phone, so it was poorly written. I apologize. But don't know what I should add. Care to be specific?

[Peerie Maa]

The UK variant is now also said to be more deadly. Ditch those cloth masks and get N95s or surgical!

May be.

Early evidence suggests the variant of coronavirus that emerged in the UK may be more deadly, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said.
However, there remains huge uncertainty around the numbers - and vaccines are still expected to work.
The data comes from mathematicians comparing death rates in people infected with either the new or the old versions of the virus.
The new more infectious variant has already spread widely across the UK.
Mr Johnson told a Downing Street briefing: "In addition to spreading more quickly, it also now appears that there is some evidence that the new variant - the variant that was first identified in London and the south east - may be associated with a higher degree of mortality.

Possibly

[George.]

Lets not get ahead of ourselves. The reports are that there "is some evidence" it is more deadly.

It is already established to be more contagious, which will lead to more deaths. It may also be more deadly. You worry about not getting ahead of yourself - I'll stick to the precautionary principle until the data is in.

[LeeG]

hey, hey, hey no panic porn here, it’s only 400,000.

[RFNK]

Well, I typed it on my phone, so it was poorly written. I apologize. But don't know what I should add. Care to be specific?

You've left something out. It doesn't make sense as it is.

[Canoez]

May be.
Possibly

Seems the UK government tends to "telegraph" things before they happen or are indicated to be true.

[TomF]

More contagious by itself will lead to more deaths I agree, even if cases themselves have no greater likelihood to become severe. I saw some really worrisome modeling about how much quicker the "doubling time" of the # of cases in a geography could become if the more contagious variant becomes the dominant strain.

And that's what always happens with more contagious variants.

[George Jung]

I don't know what vaccine the Israeli's are using; immune response after one shot is apparently variable, not only by age, but by vaccine type.

[WI-Tom]

More contagious by itself will lead to more deaths I agree, even if cases themselves have no greater likelihood to become severe. I saw some really worrisome modeling about how much quicker the "doubling time" of the # of cases in a geography could become if the more contagious variant becomes the dominant strain.

And that's what always happens with more contagious variants.

I think the potential for faster mutations is also worrying--the more cases, the more chances to introduce new, and potentially more lethal/more infectious variants. Keep in mind I'm an English teacher and not an epidemiologist...

Tom

[Peerie Maa]

Seems the UK government tends to "telegraph" things before they happen or are indicated to be true.

It does depend on where you get your info. Some relay the facts as known now, others go for the sensational.

[WI-Tom]

Well, I typed it on my phone, so it was poorly written. I apologize. But don't know what I should add. Care to be specific?

Perhaps he is suggesting a citation of a source? Not sure. I don't think there's anything grammatically missing.

Tom

[Peerie Maa]

I don't know what vaccine the Israeli's are using; immune response after one shot is apparently variable, not only by age, but by vaccine type.

Word was that Palestinians were at the bottom of the waiting list. Is there any mote info about that?

[Peerie Maa]

I don't know what vaccine the Israeli's are using; immune response after one shot is apparently variable, not only by age, but by vaccine type.

Word was that Palestinians were at the bottom of the waiting list. Is there any mote info about that?

[peb]

You've left something out. It doesn't make sense as it is.

I will try again. The Israelis vaccinated the elderly first. So far, they see just as many cases among those with one dose, as the population at large. Which likely implies the vaccine's effectiveness is less with the elderly. IIRC, it's the Phyzer vaccine.

[George Jung]

Works in progress.

https://www.biospace.com/article/j-a...-interim-data/

Johnson & Johnson published interim Phase I/IIa data in the New England Journal of Medicine showing its single-dose COVID-19 vaccine candidate created an immune response that lasted at least 71 days. The length of time was associated with the interim data point in the participants aged 18 to 55 years.
The data showed that the vaccine induced an immune response and was generally well-tolerated. After a single vaccination, neutralizing antibodies against COVID-19 were observed in more than 90% of volunteers at Day 29 and 100% of the volunteers between the ages of 18 and 55 at Day 57. The neutralizing antibodies were stable through Day 71, which was the latest available timepoint in the study. Data on participants over the age of 65 years is expected later this month.
The company also expects topline data from its larger Phase III trial later this month as well. But, like the other large COVID-19 vaccine trials, is dependent on a percentage of people in the trial actually being diagnosed with COVID-19, so the schedule can be unpredictable. Once that data is available, J&J expects to submit an application for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) shortly afterwards, followed by applications to regulators globally.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...e-vaccine-dose

he cases are already beginning to emerge.
When 85-year-old Colin Horseman was admitted to Doncaster Royal Infirmary in late December, it was for a suspected kidney infection. But not long afterwards he caught Covid-19 – at the time, roughly one in four people in hospital with the virus had acquired it there. He developed severe symptoms and was eventually put on a ventilator. A few days later, he died.
At first glance, Horseman's situation may seem fairly typical, though no less tragic for it. After all, at least 84,767 people have now succumbed to the disease in the UK alone at the time of writing. But, as his son recently explained in a local newspaper, less than three weeks earlier he had been among the first people in the world to receive the initial dose of a Covid-19 vaccine – the Pfizer-BioNTech version. He was due to receive the second dose two days prior to his death.
In fact, most vaccines require booster doses to work.
Take the MMR – measles, mumps and rubella – vaccine, which is given to babies around the world to prevent these deadly childhood infections. Around 40% of people who have received just one dose are not protected from all three viruses, compared to 4% of those who have had their second. People in the former group are four times more likely to catch measles than those in the latter – and there have been outbreaks in places where a high proportion of people have not completed the full MMR vaccination schedule.
"The reason that people are so keen on boosters and consider them so vital is that they kind of send you into this whole other kind of fine-tuning mode of your immune response," says Danny Altmann, professor of immunology at Imperial College London.

https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/20...le-dose-debate

Tucked inside the Food and Drug Administration’s analyses of Moderna and Pfizer's vaccines was a pleasant discovery: A single injection of either of the two-dose vaccines appears to provide strong protection against the coronavirus.
With supplies of the vaccines limited — and hundreds of millions of people waiting for inoculation — this leaves epidemiologists grappling with a complicated question. Should the nation vaccinate fewer people with the best protection possible, or provide twice the number of people with a single shot, covering more of the population but with slightly weaker protection?
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“[The] question is a really difficult moral and scientific one," says Barry Bloom, an epidemiologist at Harvard University. "If the second vaccine dose were superfluous, and we knew [it] didn’t extend the duration of protection, the principle would be to protect as many people and save as many lives as possible.”
Get the latest on vaccine safety protocols, side effects, local distribution plans & more in your inbox with our coronavirus newsletter and alerts.

The right answer, in other words, depends on science we haven't yet completed. For one, the protection from a single dose of Pfizer’s vaccine hasn’t been definitively tested. Scientists can only infer from the trial data that Pfizer’s vaccine would provide protective antibodies to roughly half of people who get one dose.

[skuthorp]

#4747,
The experiment continues George, and it's only 13 months or so since they started looking. I expect CV will give us quite a few more surprises in the coming few years, and you and I are lucky enough to live in developed countries.

[LeeG]

Looks like the second wave is finishing up. Not a bell curve.

[peb]

A bell curve represents a normal distribution over a random variable. Not for sure how that would apply to daily stats of covid. Did people expect that to be the case?

[George Jung]

*Someone*, at the beginning of the pandemic, made such a claim. Looking a little 'thin' these days.

[Canoez]

*Someone*, at the beginning of the pandemic, made such a claim. Looking a little 'thin' these days.

Was looking a little 'thin' in those days, too.

[Garret]

Was looking a little 'thin' in those days, too.

Anyone know if he's OK? No posts in a long time.

[Canoez]

Anyone know if he's OK? No posts in a long time.

Dunno. Snared in the sweep after the Capitol protests?

[WX]

Word was that Palestinians were at the bottom of the waiting list. Is there any mote info about that?

They are going to vaccinate Palestinians working in Israel.

[ERGR]

I dont' think he meant a gaussian distribution, only that the shape of the one and only wave would look somewhat like a bell.

Anyway, the general opinion in Sweden is also that the second wave is concluded and that we now see the beginning of the third wave driven by the latest Brittish export success. It's a race between vaccine deliveries and the third wave.

It's unfortunate that we name the new mutations after the country where they first occured (although I just did that). It's not really their fault, and it's too easy to always blame foreigners.
/Erik

[skuthorp]

I would have thought that israel would be more sensible than to allow a major source of future virus infections and mutations to fester just next door? Of course the Palestinians, with good cause, may distrust any attempts by the Israelis to vacinate them.

[The Q]

The latest reports from the Astra Zenica and Pfizer Biontec vaccines, in the UK.
They have cause an 80% drop in infected over 80's (the first to be vaccinated) needing hospital treatment and that's just after the first Jab.
The one jab causes a 60% drop in the chance of passing the virus on.

Also
The J&J Jab single dose jab is a lot less effective against the virus, than a single jab of the AZ or PB , especially against the variants.

The UK does 25% of the world DNA squencing total.

About 40% of adults in the UK have been vaccinated, though it's much higher in my county and especially in my local area as our average age in our area is 57 is compared to the national average of 40.

Someone said it won't be long before the Astra Zenica vaccine is brought to market.. It's not on the market as such, as the Oxford group that invented it, insisted it is sold on a cost price only.. That's why it's one of the cheapest Vaccines at £3 a dose against the Pfizer £25. the other vaccines are somewhere between for price...