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Thread: Novel Coronavirus

  1. #3851
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  2. #3852
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    I gather that donald's tie is the equivalent of Pinnochio's nose?

  3. #3853
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    The world total of corona virus cases has jumped from 20 million to 30 million, a leap of 10 million, in just five weeks. It took six months to reach the first 10 million..

    The number of confirmed coronavirus cases globally has passed 30 million, as new infections continue to grow at an accelerating rate.
    Daily cases around the world now average close to 300,000, up from around 200,000 per day in July.
    The accelerating rate means that it has taken just five weeks to pass the latest 10m milestone, having taken six months to reach the first 10 million cases.

    The majority of new cases come from just three countries – India, Brazil and the US – with India alone accounting for nearly a third of all new infections.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...r-b467683.html
    Structures uninformed by geometry tend towards the ramshackle.

  4. #3854
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Bad news from Spain. Hit hard early, then got it under control. Now the 7-day average of deaths has spiked from 13 to 101 in a month. This is a country that should be closer to herd mentality, I mean, herd immunity than Sweden, the US, Brazil, etc., based on its previous deaths per population.

    In other words, prepare for the second wave.

  5. #3855
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    I still think it's the suppressed first wave. There's not enough immunity for herd immunity if we act according to the 2019 normal, but whatever immunity we have helps to keep the pandemic in check as long as we maintain some of the restrictions, preferrably those that are the least annoying but still are effective. That's the new post Corona normal. The Spanish relaxed too much.

    We see new spikes in Denmark and Norway also, but at low levels. They should have no problems to tighten their routines somewhat to get the infection under control again.

    /Erik

  6. #3856
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    I see where CDC has reversed itself - yet again - and is, again, recommending contacts be tested. Gee, ya think?

    Also just got a message from my (somewhat RWW) sister. She's an RN; just learned her DIL (also an RN) tested positive - and has already exposed her extended family.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  7. #3857
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    In Melbourne it seems that one youth disregarding the mask and isolation rules, has infected over 30 of his extended family, and 4 are in hospital.
    Other than that it seems we have managed to get it down to manageable proportions……. so far.

  8. #3858
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by ERGR View Post
    I still think it's the suppressed first wave. There's not enough immunity for herd immunity if we act according to the 2019 normal, but whatever immunity we have helps to keep the pandemic in check as long as we maintain some of the restrictions, preferrably those that are the least annoying but still are effective. That's the new post Corona normal. The Spanish relaxed too much.

    We see new spikes in Denmark and Norway also, but at low levels. They should have no problems to tighten their routines somewhat to get the infection under control again.

    /Erik
    It looks as though we in England are heading for a second spike.
    We were late responding at the beginning, now testing and tracing systems are too late and inadequate as well.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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  9. #3859
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Vermont continues to have the lowest percentage (per 100K population) of positives & lowest of # deaths (also per 100K) of any state in the US. We also have amongst the highest percentage of people wearing masks.

    NH & ME are just slightly behind us & they too have a high percentage of people wearing masks.

    Gosh - I wonder if there's a correlation?
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

  10. #3860
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by Garret View Post
    Vermont continues to have the lowest percentage (per 100K population) of positives & lowest of # deaths (also per 100K) of any state in the US. We also have amongst the highest percentage of people wearing masks.

    NH & ME are just slightly behind us & they too have a high percentage of people wearing masks.

    Gosh - I wonder if there's a correlation?
    Or Ben and Jerry's has a prophylactic effect.

  11. #3861
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Pastor for Idaho, who called himself a "non masker" is now in ICU after contracting Covid 19.
    Coeur d'Alene pastor did not require parishioners to wear masks. He didn't want to be told he needed to wear a mask. He also would not comply with the city to halt in person services. What an idiot ...

  12. #3862
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    A pastor needing ICU? Now there's a letdown………………….

  13. #3863
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by Hwyl View Post
    Or Ben and Jerry's has a prophylactic effect.
    Any port in a storm, Cherry Garcia tomorrow! (-:

  14. #3864
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Some studies both in Aus and at Harvard Medical School may be suggesting the your blood type may decide how badly you get covid, but very early days yet. At this point it's just a trend, not a fact.
    https://hms.harvard.edu/news/covid-19-blood-type

    "For now, though, the researchers are confident that their principle finding—that ABO blood typing should not be considered prognostic in patients who acquire COVID-19—will help debunk the kinds of clinically unfounded rumors and misinformation that can readily gain traction in the midst of a pandemic, and in some cases become part of accepted medical practice."

    Incidentally it seems that it's still a mystery why we have different blood types. I bet there's a nobel prize there!
    Last edited by skuthorp; 09-20-2020 at 06:36 AM.

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  16. #3866
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    donald is stil talking up a vaccine, but predictions are that by Christmas another 200,000 will be dead.
    don's present to the nation.

  17. #3867
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by skuthorp View Post
    Some studies both in Aus and at Harvard Medical School may be suggesting the your blood type may decide how badly you get covid, but very early days yet. At this point it's just a trend, not a fact.
    https://hms.harvard.edu/news/covid-19-blood-type

    "For now, though, the researchers are confident that their principle finding—that ABO blood typing should not be considered prognostic in patients who acquire COVID-19—will help debunk the kinds of clinically unfounded rumors and misinformation that can readily gain traction in the midst of a pandemic, and in some cases become part of accepted medical practice."
    Sorry, but you might want to read that link more carefully. Is is DEBUNKING the theory that blood types relate to severity of infection.

    Tom
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  18. #3868
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Just goes to showTom, I thought it said there might be some effect with the O group bloods.

    Britain heading for 50,000 infections a day unless measures are tightened.

  19. #3869
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Well, I'd be happy enough to discover that A+ (the blood type for both me and my wife) means your COVID-19 experience will be nothing but a sniffle or two--but sadly, that doesn't seem to be the case. I figure my chances of getting infected in the next month or two are pretty good.

    The U.S. will hit 200,000 deaths (20% of all deaths) this week, and no unified response seems to be in the cards.

    Tom
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    www.tompamperin.com

  20. #3870
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    We are now up to 201,000 persons dead (and counting) - a long time yet to go to the election and / or year end.



    Rick

  21. #3871
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    I've seen estimates of another 200,000 by christmas in the US.

    Has the question "How many deaths from Covid are acceptable as a price of opening up?". It has here, but seems to have been ignored so far. It is of course a question that no one wants to answer, particularly the most enthusiastic 'openers' and those seeking political advantage.

    And then there's the developing evidence of 'Chronic Covid'
    https://hmri.org.au/news-article/wha...ptoms-covid-19

    And that it seems may be the source of the WHO's initial concerns about the world's population.
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/scien...ganisation-WHO
    Last edited by skuthorp; 09-22-2020 at 04:42 AM.

  22. #3872
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    I've seen estimates of another 200,000 by christmas in the US.
    My guesstimate is another 40,000 to 50,000 dead by Christmas, landing at a total of about 250,000.
    I tend to make math also out of death and suffering. The above numbers come from an exponential model for supressing the daily death rate and a guess that the US will be worse than Sweden at suppressing that death rate.

    Another more pessimistic prediction is that the present daily death rate will remain at the same level, 800 dead/day, until Christmas. This would give:
    800/day * 94 days = 75,000 more dead by Christmas, or a total of 280,000.

    200,000 more dead by Christmas seems like a very pessimistic guess that requires a new peak of much more than 2000 deaths/day

    /Erik

  23. #3873
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by skuthorp View Post
    I've seen estimates of another 200,000 by christmas in the US.

    Has the question "How many deaths from Covid are acceptable as a price of opening up?". It has here, but seems to have been ignored so far. It is of course a question that no one wants to answer, particularly the most enthusiastic 'openers' and those seeking political advantage.

    And then there's the developing evidence of 'Chronic Covid'
    https://hmri.org.au/news-article/wha...ptoms-covid-19

    And that it seems may be the source of the WHO's initial concerns about the world's population.
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/scien...ganisation-WHO
    Anyone projecting 200K deaths by Christmas is just pedalling panic porn. Ignore anything else they have to say about covud-19.

  24. #3874
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by ERGR View Post
    My guesstimate is another 40,000 to 50,000 dead by Christmas, landing at a total of about 250,000.
    I tend to make math also out of death and suffering. The above numbers come from an exponential model for supressing the daily death rate and a guess that the US will be worse than Sweden at suppressing that death rate.

    Another more pessimistic prediction is that the present daily death rate will remain at the same level, 800 dead/day, until Christmas. This would give:
    800/day * 94 days = 75,000 more dead by Christmas, or a total of 280,000.

    200,000 more dead by Christmas seems like a very pessimistic guess that requires a new peak of much more than 2000 deaths/day

    /Erik
    250K us a reasonable projection. I think by Christmas we should be stabilized at around deaths a day. And that will be our death rate until a vaccine is wide available. Perhaps a very a low decline from the 250.

  25. #3875
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    You'd better hope you are right peb.

  26. #3876
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Anyone projecting 200K deaths by Christmas is just pedalling panic porn. Ignore anything else they have to say about covud-19.
    Of course, we already have 200,000 deaths...

    Yes, I know that's not what you meant, but it's worth remembering lest we get too optimistic. I can't make any intelligent predictions about where we'll be by Christmas, but locally and state-wide, things are getting worse pretty quickly. And to make that worse, people and businesses are basically just not following any safety measures anymore. My students tell me the big box stores (Fleet Farm, Walmart, etc.) aren't enforcing masks or distancing. Bars and restaurants are open.

    I for one am not optimistic. But you may well be right, peb. I hope so.

    Tom
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  27. #3877
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    So, Peb, 200k by christmas is worthy of panic then? So what does 200k by September warrant? Must be well beyond panic by now. How about action? Would 200k by September warrant action? Positive useful action by strong leaders?
    If one advances confidently in the direction of his dreams, and endeavors to live the life which he has imagined, he will meet with a success unexpected in common hours.
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  28. #3878
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Anyone projecting 200K deaths by Christmas is just pedalling panic porn. Ignore anything else they have to say about covud-19.
    oh that porn, porn, porn, porn. Maybe it’ll only be 100,000 more and porn no more!

  29. #3879
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by LeeG View Post
    oh that porn, porn, porn, porn. Maybe it’ll only be 100,000 more and porn no more!
    Make fun all you want, but it is obvious to anyone with basic arithmetic skills that to reach 200K deaths by Christmas, we would have to reach a death rate of 2000 deaths per day immediately, and hold at that level for 100 days. Or take a month to reach that and hold at 2500 per day for 2 months. We have not been above 2000 deaths per day since April, and then for only around 3 weeks. And we are currently at 768 and trending down. Also, the case rate fatality in April was around 4 percent then, it's around 2 now.

    So no reasonable projection, at this time, should be presenting 400K deaths by Christmas. So if that us published, what's the motivation? My only answer us to instill panic.

  30. #3880
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Peb, biogical infection rates are logarithmic. Exponential is another word for an accelerating non linear increase.

    2,5,10,28,42,106,290,685,1954,5765,12745....

    It is entirely plausible that the world will see a drastic increase in infections in the coming 6 months, especially as more and more we will all be sheltering indoors more.

  31. #3881
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    WAPO, 4 sept, forecasts 410,000 deaths by the end of the year is entirely possible. August 6 the forecat was 300,000.

    Take your pick. projected US covid infection figures by christmas

  32. #3882
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    So, according to the Whitehouse, 200K dead is really good! If Chump hadn't been so timely in his response, there'd have been 2M dead!! Phew! Boy, that was lucky - eh!
    Rick

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  33. #3883
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    The US 7-day average of new cases has been rising since Sept 12, after dropping from the earlier surge.

    That means daily deaths in the US, whose trend is not declining but flat since Sept 8, should start to rise on the first or second week of October. It is reasonable to suppose that this will be accelerated by winter.

    I'd say the best case scenario for the US is to have around 750 deaths a day until the end of the year, putting it close to 300,000 deaths by then. More likely is a second wave like what Spain is currently experiencing, with death rates going back over 1000 or 1500 before stabilizing. In that case you may well be close to 400,000 deaths by year's end.

    That's if you don't really screw up again, like you did last spring.

  34. #3884
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by George. View Post
    The US 7-day average of new cases has been rising since Sept 12, after dropping from the earlier surge.

    That means daily deaths in the US, whose trend is not declining but flat since Sept 8, should start to rise on the first or second week of October. It is reasonable to suppose that this will be accelerated by winter.

    I'd say the best case scenario for the US is to have around 750 deaths a day until the end of the year, putting it close to 300,000 deaths by then. More likely is a second wave like what Spain is currently experiencing, with death rates going back over 1000 or 1500 before stabilizing. In that case you may well be close to 400,000 deaths by year's end.

    That's if you don't really screw up again, like you did last spring.
    Well, we use a 7 day average to give us more accurate daily averages due to uneven reporting during the week, but it does not make for long term trends. Yes the cases started going up on Sept 12, but any longer term trend is going to see short term increases. It has since flattened, as of Sept 19th. So there was a one week slight increase in cases. You simply cannot draw the conclusion that deaths will be accelerated by winter based on that week of data. Its absurd.

    THe trend is down to flat on cases and deaths at this time. Could it be changing to an increase? yes. But you cannot say that noe. If death rates go back to 100/1500 before stabllizing, as you predict, we will end up no where near 400K deaths by years end. The math is not that hard. Lets say we go up to 1500 deaths per day over the next month. THat will give us 30 days averaging 1200, and 70 days averaging 1500. That comes out to to 140K cases. And that is NOT likely as the increase will not be that rapid (your 7 day increase was 75 cases/day over that week). It is certainly not 200,000.

  35. #3885
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by lupussonic View Post
    Peb, biogical infection rates are logarithmic. Exponential is another word for an accelerating non linear increase.

    2,5,10,28,42,106,290,685,1954,5765,12745....

    It is entirely plausible that the world will see a drastic increase in infections in the coming 6 months, especially as more and more we will all be sheltering indoors more.
    This barely deserves a response, and I would ignore it accept that one sees this logic way too often. Yes, when a new virus breaks out it can grow at an accelerated rate for a (relatively ) short period of time. But this is not MARCH. It is not growing exponential rate. Indeed, it is going down. Why? because a significant percentage of the population are wearing masks in public, maintaining distancing, big events are closed down, etc. Now, lets assume that half of those people were to immidieately quit all of their social distancing practices. Then cases would start to grow again, just like we saw in the Southern US in June. Well, it didn't stay exponential then for very long at all. Why? Because people came to their d*&n senses. It is absurd to believe that 1/2 are going to immediately stop the smart practices (remember I am talking about people who are currently doing the right thing) and even more absurd to believe they will continue to ignore safe practices if another surge occurs. Without both of those happening, we simply will not get to 200,000 deaths by the end of the year. No reasonable analysus of the situation can lead one to that projection.

    ETA: and yes, in some parts of the world, there will be, at some point, for some short period of time, an exponential increase in infections. I suppose that France or the Netherlands right now are seeing one. They will flatten out by mid october.
    Last edited by peb; 09-23-2020 at 10:47 AM.

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