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Thread: Novel Coronavirus

  1. #4096
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Well, the article shows quite conclusively the rate has fallen. One can look at the last two months case and death count and see the same. Overall case fatality was around 4% in the spring, it's 2% now. Now, that could just be because of increase percentage of infections b5eing confirmed cases. But the article shows the numbers related to hospitalizations.
    And yet the hardest data we have, daily deaths, has been surging this past week, just as predicted by science. It will soon be above 1000 again.

  2. #4097
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Here is scientific reality. You all really need to make masks mandatory, with harsh penalties for non-compliance:

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1132-9

    Projections ... suggest that, cumulatively, 511,373 (469,578–578,347) lives could be lost to COVID-19 across the United States by 28 February 2021. We find that achieving universal mask use (95% mask use in public) could be sufficient to ameliorate the worst effects of epidemic resurgences in many states. Universal mask use could save an additional 129,574 (85,284–170,867) lives from September 22, 2020 through the end of February 2021, or an additional 95,814 (60,731–133,077) lives assuming a lesser adoption of mask wearing (85%), when compared to the reference scenario.
    I suspect the US is in for a banana republic post-election surprise. I bet that after November 3, when the logic of denialism will no longer apply, the federal government suddenly recommends "unpopular" measures to try to stem the catastrophe.

  3. #4098
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Well George, our (State of Victoria) actually popular measures have done their job and from tomorrow night we are, with masks and distancing, open for business with all cases accounted for and being managed, and no new infections or deaths. Sporting clubs gyms, pubs, restaurants, all retail businesses, the lot. And the only remaining geographic boundary comes off is 2 weeks.
    International travel however might be off for some time considering the state of the Virus in other countries.

  4. #4099
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by StevenBauer View Post
    Bigly sad:

    Attachment 71379
    Is this the "Red Tide" of which your beloved leader speaks?
    I'd much rather lay in my bunk all freakin day lookin at Youtube videos .

  5. #4100
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by StevenBauer View Post
    Bigly sad:

    Attachment 71379
    Hmmm... 2 trending better states out of 50. Couldn't have anything to do with populations that take this seriously, wear masks & distance. could it?

    I just got back from working on the boat for a couple of days (first time out of VT since the 1st week of March!) & what I saw in ME was much the same as here - people being careful instead of whining about rights.
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

  6. #4101
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Talked with my BIL yesterday - he's a vet in small town Nebraska. They're seeing a real uptik in C19 cases, and more deaths - so much so, even the yahoos have decided 'this might be real', and more of them are now wearing a mask. Of some concern - he's also seeing a real outbreak of influenza in hogs - same one we catch. I haven't seen any 'positives' in practice yet, but we're moving to that 'perfect storm'.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  7. #4102
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    As bad as it is here right now, some of the European countries are really getting hammered. France's 7 day average of new cases is 2.5 times higher than ours. Switzerland's is 2.3 times higher than ours. Belguims's is 5.8 times as high as ours.

  8. #4103
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    yes - but misery really doesn't like company. This is going to be a nasty winter.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  9. #4104
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    It's better to compare the US with EU, and to compare US states with EU countries. Some are doing better than others, and states/countries are in different stages of the pandemic. Without digging into the numbers, as a whole I think that the picture in EU is similar to the picture in US. Some states/countries are seing a surge in infections and deaths, but far from all.

    /Erik

  10. #4105
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    A nice editorial from the recent JAMA: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2771759

    Because fatality counts from death certificates are at any moment incomplete, and the listed causes of death reflect varying degrees of uncertainty and the judgment of the certifier, it is important to consider other ways to estimate the number of deaths due to a condition such as COVID-19. One useful metric for this purpose is the number of deaths in excess of the number expected in a specified period of time. The number of deaths in a population such as the US over the course of a year shows a highly regular wave pattern, increasing in the winter months and declining in the summer. When an abrupt event arises, such as a war, famine, or pandemic, the excess mortality can be a revealing indicator of the death toll from that event. Because the pattern of deaths in many countries follows a similarly regular wave, excess mortality has the added advantage of facilitating international comparisons.

    In this issue of JAMA, Woolf et al4 update their estimate of excess deaths in recent months in the US. For the 5 months of March through July 2020, the US experienced more than 225 000 excess deaths, a 20% increase over expected deaths. COVID-19 reportedly accounted for approximately two-thirds of these excess deaths. Importantly, a condition such as COVID-19 can contribute both directly and indirectly to excess mortality. The direct contribution occurs among individuals who are infected. The indirect contribution may relate to circumstances or choices due to the COVID-19 pandemic: for example, a patient who develops symptoms of a stroke is too concerned about COVID-19 to go to the emergency department, and a potentially reversible condition becomes fatal. When a portion of excess mortality is attributed to a COVID-19–related condition such as pneumonia, some deaths recorded as due to pneumonia without mentioning COVID-19 probably represent missed COVID-19 diagnoses during a COVID-19 pandemic. Over time, further analyses of mortality patterns may illuminate the direct, indirect, and missed counts of deaths attributable to COVID-19.5 If the winter months bring a combined increase in both COVID-19 and influenza, attribution of unassigned excess mortality between COVID-19 and influenza may be problematic.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  11. #4106
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Well, looks like Santa is not getting the jab.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-54686844
    ​"Life is under no obligation to give us what we expect." Irrfan Khan. RIP

  12. #4107
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by George Jung View Post
    A nice editorial from the recent JAMA: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2771759
    “COVID-19 reportedly accounted for approximately two-thirds of these excess deaths“

    So whatever the Covid 19 number is add 50%? Sounds about right, a couple weeks ago the Covid number was around 210,000 and excess deaths was 300,000. I thought it was closer to 20%.

    Either way I think this is still the first wave.

  13. #4108
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    From The Atlantic again

    "Once a country has too many outbreaks, it’s almost as if the pandemic switches into “flu mode,” as Scarpino put it, meaning high, sustained levels of community spread even though a majority of infected people may not be transmitting onward. Scarpino explained that barring truly drastic measures, once in that widespread and elevated mode, COVID-19 can keep spreading because of the sheer number of chains already out there. Plus, the overwhelming numbers may eventually spark more clusters, further worsening the situation."

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...ndemic/616548/

  14. #4109
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by LeeG View Post
    “COVID-19 reportedly accounted for approximately two-thirds of these excess deaths“

    So whatever the Covid 19 number is add 50%? Sounds about right, a couple weeks ago the Covid number was around 210,000 and excess deaths was 300,000. I thought it was closer to 20%.

    Either way I think this is still the first wave.
    Where does that math come from? If the exes deaths through July was 225K, 2/3rds of that is aroudn 150K. As of the end of July the covid deats were around 157K.

  15. #4110
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Two articles in the media that caught my attention today.

    First, from the Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...uk-cases-study
    A study suggesting a coronavirus variant originating in Spain now accounts for most UK cases has highlighted the weakness of the government’s travel policies over the summer, experts have said.
    Research from scientists in Switzerland, which is yet to be peer-reviewed, has revealed that a new variant of coronavirus, known as 20A.EU1, appears to have cropped up in Spain during the summer and has since spread to multiple European countries, including the UK.
    And second from the Beeb https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-eng...ester-54730059
    A man who refused to wear a mask to protect himself from Covid-19 after believing fake theories about the disease has said battling the virus was "the worst two weeks of my life".
    Trevor Jones from Bolton said he initially listened to those who told him coronavirus was "man flu" or linked to the 5G network, but became gravely ill after testing positive in September.
    He received critical care in hospital and "lost a stone and a half in 12 days".
    He said his experience had changed his views on the virus and hoped it would help alter the attitudes of others too.
    Some people just have to learn the hard way!

    Nick

  16. #4111
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    From the Guardiasn, 90,000 new US cases in a day, and 1000 deaths.…………
    "The US has shattered the daily coronavirus record, with almost 90,000 new infections reported on Thursday and close to 1,000 deaths, as the country surged past a world-topping 9m cases and experts warned of death rates more than doubling by mid-January.The sobering data and scientific outlook show a pandemic veering further out of control in America even as the president and his son hammered a public message dismissing the grim realities.
    On Friday, the total number of cases in the US hit 9,018,000, according to figures from Johns Hopkins University. So far, 228,677 people have died in the country, the highest figure in the world by a significant margin."

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...d-cases-deaths

  17. #4112
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Oregon is better off than many states... but we are still experiencing a surge in cases. The hospital where my sweetie works is about to adds tents in the parking lot to accommodate an expected continued surge. They are already taking in some of the overflow from Idaho... a state that chose to ignore all cautions & precautions from the epidemic professionals.

    A new record of 867 in one day here. It's enough that we have canceled our beloved annual Thanksgiving Dinner celebration... and put people on notice that it's not looking good for Christmas Dinner either. We usually seat between 8 & 14. Really brings it home. But it's just not safe, and not responsible, to be more social in close quarters than need be.

    https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavir..._breaking_news
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  18. #4113
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Agree. Just got a call from my son-in-law - his mother is ill, symptoms are 'suspicious'. TG and Christmas look to be thin and quiet.

    Anxious for the Vax to be rolled out. I'll be real interested to see what effect that has.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  19. #4114
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    If the Vaccine is a short termer, needing boosters, then it will only be the answer for a small number given the exponential spread that is already occurring. It may take years to get this under any control, as it did for previous serious infectious diseases.
    But I hope your son in laws mum makes a full recovery.

  20. #4115
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    The US is now recording 150,000 cases a day, and 1500 deaths per day. Both curves are on an exponential track.

    Anyone still care to argue that there will not be 300,000 dead in the US by the end of the year?

  21. #4116
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Pakistan is likely to go into lockdown again as cases explode.

    "Pakistan’s top body, which oversees response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, on Wednesday warned that strict measures, including lockdown, could be initiated to contain the infection if people don’t stop violating government guidelines, as the country’s COVID-19 mortality rate increased by 140% compared to past few weeks.
    “The National Command and Operations Centre (NCOC) is closely monitoring the situation. If there is no improvement in SOPs compliance observed, NCOC will have no choice but to revert to strict measures leading to re-closures of services,” the Body said in a statement on Wednesday.
    "
    https://www.thehindu.com/news/intern...le32909729.ece

    I do hope that Syed and his family are OK.

  22. #4117
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by George. View Post
    The US is now recording 150,000 cases a day, and 1500 deaths per day. Both curves are on an exponential track.

    Anyone still care to argue that there will not be 300,000 dead in the US by the end of the year?
    We have been abandoned by our Federal Government. It is truly criminal.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  23. #4118
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    150K cases/day. Deaths spiking, to the degree that El Paso at last count has 10 mobile temporary morgues to handle the surge.

    Jesus.

    This isn't a bid for herd immunity, unless we mean the way herds become immune to anthrax.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

  24. #4119
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by TomF View Post
    150K cases/day. Deaths spiking, to the degree that El Paso at last count has 10 mobile temporary morgues to handle the surge.

    Jesus.

    This isn't a bid for herd immunity, unless we mean the way herds become immune to anthrax.
    It's mass murder is what it is.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  25. #4120
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2020...gh/?comments=1

    This is more solid than new cases - independent of number of tests.

    While mortality has dropped due to better care, expect that to reverse as care becomes overwhelmed. The US will soon be at over 2000 deaths a day.

    My uncle died of covid-19 yesterday. He was 93. Take care, you all up in the darkening northern hemisphere. Stay the hell away from covidiots until the Angel of the Lord is done or the vaccine arrives. They can be identified by their red caps and exposed nostrils.

  26. #4121
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by George. View Post
    https://arstechnica.com/science/2020...gh/?comments=1

    This is more solid than new cases - independent of number of tests.

    While mortality has dropped due to better care, expect that to reverse as care becomes overwhelmed. The US will soon be at over 2000 deaths a day.

    My uncle died of covid-19 yesterday. He was 93. Take care, you all up in the darkening northern hemisphere. Stay the hell away from covidiots until the Angel of the Lord is done or the vaccine arrives. They can be identified by their red caps and exposed nostrils.
    Sorry for your loss, George. Condolences from here.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  27. #4122
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Damn George - sorry to hear about your uncle.

    Here in Vermont, we've had a huge spike (huge by our standards) based just about 100% on people getting covid fatigue & not distancing/wearing masks at social gatherings.
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

  28. #4123
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Thanks, guys. We pretty much expected it when he caught and was hospitalized due to his age. At least he was not intubated and family members were allowed to be with him. He lives in Pamplona, Spain, where there was a huge spike in cases due mainly to young people going to bars, because young people don't get hit so bad when they catch it... but of course covid always "leaks up" in the end.

    My mom is probably next, unless the vaccine arrives. She is 92, and here in Brazil, where cases are dropping. I have her better isolated than he was, but...

  29. #4124
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Dammit. Dammit. DAMMIT.

    So sorry, George.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

  30. #4125
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    If anyone has any delusions about where infections and deaths are headed in the US...

    Over 150,000 new infections yesterday.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  31. #4126
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    I really don't know what to say to you guys. This is simply awful. And it's only going to grow, since Trump's not going to authorize pretty much anything for two months.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

  32. #4127
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    In fairness, it ain't just Trump. People are not taking this seriously. VT has done really well through this, but set 2 new daily records this week. 80% of the new cases were traced back to non mask wearing/distanced Halloween parties.

    Our gov. has announced a ban on all non-household gatherings, stopped most sports, put a 10PM closing time on restaurants (seems a # of new cases were from people getting drunk & "forgetting") and has really put the word out that people have to pay attention - including no non-household Thanksgiving gatherings.

    When a reporter pressed him about it he said "Look - I haven't seen my mother in 11 months or my daughter (who lives in RI) for 10 months - do you think I take this seriously?"
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

  33. #4128
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by TomF View Post
    I really don't know what to say to you guys. This is simply awful. And it's only going to grow, since Trump's not going to authorize pretty much anything for two months.
    On top of people becoming sick and dying from this virus, the other issue is that there isn't a real safety net for a lot of people. They'll be without jobs, or other support. Some will not have housing, food, or medical coverage. Neither Trump nor McConnell show much inclination to actually help people. Now that it is increasingly clear that Biden has won the election, it seems to be scorched earth politics to leave the absolute worst situation for the incoming administration, and the citizens of all walks will suffer for it. Now that Governors and the current administration have staked out their claims about Covid not being a problem, and denying basic public health measures to try to stem the virus, they've painted themselves into a corner that they can't back out of.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  34. #4129
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Sorry for your loss George.

    The sheet is hitting the fan in Europe too. 33,000 reported cases in 24 hours in the UK a few days ago. Spain, Hungary, France in lockdown... travel restrictions even from Netherlands to Germany FFS. It is going to be a long winter.

    I was planning to return to the UK, but am now hoping to get to the middle of nowhere soon, bring in food and wine, and bolt the door until at least February.

  35. #4130
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    We're facing upticks in Canada too, in some places. Not, thank God, where I live - but where we do have vulnerable family.

    There's worry that university kids attending in Atlantic Canada institutions will go home for Christmas and bring the virus back with them. Despite rules here requiring 14 days of self-isolation before they go anywhere public, and mandatory testing if during that time they show 2 or more symptoms. Some universities are adjusting start dates for the Winter term a bit later, to try and give students more time to do that isolation.

    This winter though, is going to be horrible.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

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