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Thread: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

  1. #1
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    Lightbulb Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

    Maybe just maybe ?

    Republicans Have More Kids Than Democrats.

    A Lot More Kids.


    Red States have more kids than Blue States.

    Maybe that’s why Republicans keep winning.


    By Joshua A. Krisch
    Updated Nov 22 2019, 2:22 PM



    Liberals are not having enough babies to keep up with conservatives.

    Arthur Brooks, a social scientist at Syracuse University, was the first to point this out all the way back in 2006 when he went on ABC News and blew blue staters minds.

    “The political Right is having a lot more kids than the political Left,” he explained. “The gap is actually 41 percent.”

    Data on the U.S. birth rate from the General Social Survey confirms this trend—a random sample of 100 conservative adults will raise 208 children, while 100 liberal adults will raise a mere 147 kids. That’s a massive gap.

    When we collected the number of children per capita in each state and then compared the data to statewide voting records, we found that the trend is so strong, that it can even be observed at the state level. Red States came out with significantly more kids per capita than Blue States.

    There are, of course, sociopolitical reasons why Republicans might have more children. Conservatives tend to live in sprawling rural or suburban communities and are often social conservatives who eschew birth control and abortions, and summarily bump up the U.S. birth rate. Liberals tend to be concentrated in cramped city apartments and are more likely to get abortions.

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    Default Re: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

    Oh boy, more kids on Welfare! Too bad Trump is cutting back on SNAP!

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    Default Re: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

    Move along...nothing to see here!

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    Default Re: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

    “Democratics do not win”

    RP, what happened in 2018?

    https://en.m.wiktionary.org/wiki/democratic

    democratic (comparative more democratic, superlative most democratic)

    Pertaining to democracy; favoring democracy, or constructed upon the principle of government by the people. quotations ▼
    The United States is a democratic country, as the citizens are allowed to choose leaders to represent their interests.
    (US) Relating to a political party so called; usually, Democratic.
    Mount Vernon is run by a strong democratic party organization.
    Exhibiting social equality, egalitarian (see online Oxford). quotations ▼

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    Default Re: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

    Quote Originally Posted by LeeG View Post
    “Democratics do not win”

    RP, what happened in 2018?
    Could that be due to the 'actions' of one individual?

    Will there be a Republican Party or Democratic Party President elected at the next USA presidential election?

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    Default Re: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

    Republican Party is now the Trump Party, try to keep up!

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    Default Re: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

    The nation’s racial and ethnic minority groups—especially Hispanics—are growing more rapidly than the non-Hispanic white population, fueled by both immigration and births. This trend has been taking place for decades, and one result is the Census Bureau’s announcement today that non-Hispanic whites now account for a minority of births in the U.S.

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    Default Re: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

    Quote Originally Posted by Rum_Pirate View Post
    Could that be due to the 'actions' of one individual?

    Will there be a Republican Party or Democratic Party President elected at the next USA presidential election?
    goofy responses

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    Default Re: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)


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    Default Re: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

    And amazingly, this concept is the lead in for Idiocracy. Blue state couple depicted waiting until too late, Redneck couple depicted having a whole passel of rugrats.

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    Default Re: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

    Just came up with a new Trump fantasy. So a couple of Repug Senators are talking about Trump's trial for impeachment, and one of them, a bit of maverick like Graham maybe, and he says to the other, "hey man, if we impeach kthe lying moron we are rid of the SOB for good; problem over". The other Repug Senator says, "well, ya'got a point there". So they impeach the moron SOB who then slinks off like a snake in the grass to play golf at Mira Del Lago. One of the Repug Senators later goes home to run for re-election and a moron constituent takes him to task for voting for impeachment. The Senator tells him, "well, ya'got three choices; ya'kin vote for me, or you can vote for my Democrat opponent, or you can just stay home and not vote at all. Now I know you ain't gon'na vote Democrat, and I frankly I don't give a rat's behind which of the other two options you go for."

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    Default Re: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

    Quote Originally Posted by Nicholas Scheuer View Post
    Just came up with a new Trump fantasy. So a couple of Repug Senators are talking about Trump's trial for impeachment, and one of them, a bit of maverick like Graham maybe, and he says to the other, "hey man, if we impeach kthe lying moron we are rid of the SOB for good; problem over". The other Repug Senator says, "well, ya'got a point there". So they impeach the moron SOB who then slinks off like a snake in the grass to play golf at Mira Del Lago. One of the Repug Senators later goes home to run for re-election and a moron constituent takes him to task for voting for impeachment. The Senator tells him, "well, ya'got three choices; ya'kin vote for me, or you can vote for my Democrat opponent, or you can just stay home and not vote at all. Now I know you ain't gon'na vote Democrat, and I frankly I don't give a rat's behind which of the other two options you go for."
    Come up with that all by yourself?

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    Default Re: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

    They can have all the kids they want, but when they inevitably turn out to be at least moderate, if not progressive, they'll be sorry.

    Meanwhile, red state citizens have a life expectancy of at least four years younger than resident of blue states, according to a recent article. So there's that, too.
    Gerard>
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    Default Re: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

    Quote Originally Posted by Gerarddm View Post
    They can have all the kids they want, but when they inevitably turn out to be at least moderate, if not progressive, they'll be sorry.
    That's the thing, children of Republicans can actually make up their own minds. Millennials are leaving the party, the percent who identify as Republican is dropping as they grow older:


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    Default Re: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

    There might be some truth to this.... but the real force that gives Republicans an advantage is the Electoral College.

    Electoral college, electoral college, electoral college.

    Anything else is just garnish.

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    Default Re: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

    Quote Originally Posted by kgr1
    Come up with that all by yourself?
    Are you offended?
    "I'll tell you why [religion's] not a scam. In my opinion, all right? Tide goes in, tide goes out. Never a miscommunication. You can't explain that."Bill O'Reilly

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    Default Re: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

    Unless you can show good evidence that political opinions are hereditary, the OP is nonsense.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

    Richard Feynman

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    Default Re: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    Unless you can show good evidence that political opinions are hereditary, the OP is nonsense.
    see alabama

    done and done
    please do play again keith
    Simpler is better, except when complicated looks really cool.

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    Default Re: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

    Don't be silly, Paul. Culture is learned, and politics is part of that, but the idea in the OP that the percentage of conservatives is increasing because folks in 'red states' are having more children is just wrong. Alabama's population is increasing less than the national average. Its growth rate is 37th out of 50, and the white population (those who vote republican, to a first approximation) is increasing at less that half the state's overall rate, less than 1/3 the rate of the black population, and vastly less than other ethnic groups (although to be fair, there really aren't many folks in Alabama who aren't white or black). What happens, as it has for 150 years at least, is that the white folks in the rural areas have kids that move away to the cities. Those who stay tend to be more conservative, those who end up in the city tend to be more liberal; cause and effect both. Cities grow, rural areas have relatively fewer people. This has been going on far longer than we've been alive, and it sure isn't stopping. The political division between young people and older ones is increasing, and although people tend to get more conservative as they age, young folks have been moving notably left. And politics correlates at least as reliably with ethnicity as it does with region or one's parents' opinions; recent developments have only accentuated that.

    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

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    Default Re: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

    Quote Originally Posted by ljb5 View Post
    There might be some truth to this.... but the real force that gives Republicans an advantage is the Electoral College.

    Electoral college, electoral college, electoral college.

    Anything else is just garnish.
    I'd argue that Republican's unprecedented levels of gerrymandering, along with their voter suppression efforts, has a bigger role to play in their electoral successes of the past 20 years.

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    Default Re: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

    I'd say that a major factor is that older working-class whites, particularly outside major cities, more consistently vote Republican.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

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    Default Re: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

    But of course, that has not always been true. There used to be a strong progressive element to the rural working class. And there could be again.

    That's why finding a candidate who repeatedly makes it clear that on a policy level, on an every-day "these are the things we want for our lives" level (tax the wealthy more and the poor less, public option for healthcare, living wage, realistic measures to deal with climate change, equitable school funding (a state-level issue), etc), the rural working class's desires match the more progressive elements of the Democratic platform could be a game-changer--not just in 2020, but for the long run.

    If I were king of the Democratic party, I'd be aiming to bring the rural (and urban) working class back into the fold. I sure wouldn't be promoting moderate centrists who fail to even promise to work for things that will appeal to those voters.

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    Default Re: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

    Quote Originally Posted by WI-Tom View Post
    But of course, that has not always been true. There used to be a strong progressive element to the rural working class. And there could be again.

    That's why finding a candidate who repeatedly makes it clear that on a policy level, on an every-day "these are the things we want for our lives" level (tax the wealthy more and the poor less, public option for healthcare, living wage, realistic measures to deal with climate change, equitable school funding (a state-level issue), etc), the rural working class's desires match the more progressive elements of the Democratic platform could be a game-changer--not just in 2020, but for the long run.

    If I were king of the Democratic party, I'd be aiming to bring the rural (and urban) working class back into the fold. I sure wouldn't be promoting moderate centrists who fail to even promise to work for things that will appeal to those voters.
    You're quite right about how there used to be a strong progressive sentiment among white working-class folks (not entirely rural, but smaller cities and towns). But I'm not at all sure that winning some of those folks back has much to do with the center-left division in the Democratic party. Those things you list are pretty much universal among Democrats these days, with minor differences, and I don't see any evidence at all that there's any more support for Sanders' or Warren's policy ideas among working-class whites than there is for those of Biden of Buttigeig. Warren's supporters tend to be young, urban, and well-educated, Sanders' even more so. While I'm all in favor of convincing white folks in Appleton or Albert Lea to vote for Democrats, I don't see any evidence that moving left on economic issues is the way to do it, whether those ideas would be good for the country or not. People tend to argue that policies they support are also good electoral strategy, but I'm not convinced that's really the case here.
    Last edited by Keith Wilson; 12-05-2019 at 12:18 PM.
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    Default Re: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

    You might well be right, Keith, but there's another way to look at it: someone who has looked at an issue thoughtfully and objectively (as far as that's possible) will eventually form an opinion about what is the best strategy. And then, once they have that opinion, of course they will present and defend it. That makes it sound much less nefarious or less biased than your "People tend to argue that policies they support are also good electoral strategy" statement suggests.

    As far as moving left on economics--these issues are decidedly NOT left-leaning issues. They are popular MAINSTREAM desires. Poll after poll shows broad bipartisan support (among voters, not legislators) for the policies I named. If you frame it as "left" you will lose those voters. And you'll be wrong as well--it is NOT left.

    If you frame it as "You want these things--and that's what we will deliver"--well, then you have a chance. As far as I can see, none of the candidates on the Democratic side has made that point. Certainly it hasn't been made repeatedly enough to stick in the consciousness of the soundbite-accustomed electorate. THAT is the primary strategic failure of the Democrats as far as I can tell.

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    Default Re: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

    That makes it sound much less nefarious or less biased than your "People tend to argue that policies they support are also good electoral strategy" statement suggests.
    Oh, I don't mean anything nefarious at all. In almost every case people make this argument 100% sincerely. That doesn't mean it's right.

    And yes, you're right that 'tax the wealthy more and the poor less, public option for healthcare, living wage, and realistic measures to deal with climate change' might possibly appeal to non-urban working-class white folks (well, at least the first three; a surprising number have been convinced that climate change is either a flat-out hoax or isn't worth dealing with). However, support for these things is pretty much universal among Democrats, left or center, and anathema to Repulcans, and has been for quite a while. Yet non-urban working-class whites have been voting redder and redder, and in 2016 came out for arguably the most extreme candidate since Barry Goldwater at least. I'm not sure that appealing to rational self-interest, no matter how sensible, will counteract God, guns, and gays, much less the influence of Fox News. I really do need to read Kathy Cramer's The Politics of Resentment. It's about Scott Walker, but I suspect it has far broader applicability.
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    Default Re: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

    OK, thinking about it a little more, this is worth considering. Long-term demographic trends already favor Democrats; fewer white people, more hispanic folks, growing cities, decline of religion, more immigrants, etc. If it were also possible to shift a significant percentage of working-class non-urban whites, even if only outside of the ex-Confederacy, the Republican party would be in very deep trouble. These folks are currently voting dead against their economic self-interest, yet they've been doing it more and more for a long time now (2018 being a possible exception). How to accomplish it?
    Last edited by Keith Wilson; 12-05-2019 at 03:07 PM.
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    Default Re: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

    Keith,

    my point is, I don't think a serious effort has even been MADE to appeal to the practical, day-to-day self-interest of rural and other non-Democratic voters. No one is out there saying time and again "The policies we are proposing are NOT Democratic policies. They are not politically "left." They are MAINSTREAM proposals supported by an overwhelming majority of the public. Including you." So your skepticism is uninformed by any evidence. It hasn't been tried.

    I think that practical day-to-day issues can carry the day if the partisan labeling is removed. Especially if the focus stays on "Here is what we want to do, and how it will affect the country; notice how it is what the majority of the public WANTS their leaders to do. We are listening. But we need your votes to make it happen" and sidesteps partisan wrangling and negative campaigns.

    I do have to read that Scott Walker book.

    Tom
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    Default Re: Possible reason why the Democratics do not win (a C&P)

    You're quite right that there's considerable support for support for that list, even among white working-class non-urban voters. (I badly need to find a more compact description.) The problem, of course, is that the opposition will do their damndest to put the partisan label back on, and howl about 'socialism' and 'liberals' and 'big government' and 'out-of touch elites', and anything else they can do to take attention away from the fact that these are ideas that will be objectively beneficial for these folks. I work with a lot of these guys (although most of them are more urban than not), and taking off the partisan label and getting them to see the real effects is nearly impossible. Beyond my skill, anyway.

    Maybe I should read What's the Matter With Kansas? too.
    Last edited by Keith Wilson; 12-05-2019 at 03:34 PM.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

    Richard Feynman

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