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Thread: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

  1. #1
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    Default State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

    We could use a bit of political optimism. I am very glad I'm not in charge of Mr. Trump's 2020 campaign (for many reasons). If you map the electoral vote by his current approval rating, it does not look at all good. The original piece is here, with lots of links to the data. Yes, it's a long time before the election; yes, many unforeseen things will occur, but still . . . . The usual suspects will soon chime in with 'Yeah, everybody thought Hillary would win too'; treat that with all the respect it deserves.

    Trump’s State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him
    By Ed Kilgore



    There has been a lot of discussion in political circles about Donald Trump’s job-approval ratings, what they portend, and Trump’s Electoral College strategy for 2020, which doesn’t necessarily require a popular-vote plurality. But in the end, of course, the conjunction of the Electoral College with Trump’s state-by-state popularity is where the deal will go down.

    The online polling firm Civiqs has published a new set of state-by-state job-approval ratings for Trump as of August 11, and it shows how the president’s overall standing (a 43 percent approval rating nationally, which happens to match the current RealClearPolitics polling average) might translate into electorate votes. It’s not a pretty picture for the president, to put it mildly.

    Civiqs shows the president’s net approval ratios being underwater (i.e., negative) in 10 states he carried in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. If that were to represent how the 2020 elections turn out, Trump would have a booming 119 electoral votes. And it’s not as though he’s on a knife’s edge between victory and defeat in all these Trump 2016 states where he’s doing poorly: He’s underwater by 12 points in Pennsylvania, 11 in Michigan, and nine in Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. And there’s virtually no indication that states that narrowly went for Clinton in 2016 are trending in Trump’s direction: His approval ratios are minus 18 in Colorado, minus 15 in Minnesota, minus 12 in Nevada, and minus 27 in New Hampshire. These are, by the way, polls of registered voters, not just “adults,” so they should be a relatively sound reflection of the views of the electorate.

    In case you just don’t trust this particular pollster, the other publicly available survey of state-by-state presidential job approval is from Morning Consult, and its latest numbers (as of July) are pretty similar. They show Georgia and Texas as positive for Trump, and North Carolina as very close. But all the other “battleground states” are quite the reach for the incumbent.

    If you credit these polls at all, Trump’s reelection will require (1) a big late improvement in his approval ratings, which is possible but unlikely based on long-standing patterns during his polarizing presidency; (2) a campaign that succeeds in making the election turn on theoretical fears about his opponent rather than actual fears about a second Trump term, which won’t be easy either; (3) a big Republican turnout advantage, which is less likely among the larger presidential electorate than it was in 2018; or (4) some diabolical ability to thread the needle despite every contrary indicator, which superstitious Democrats fear for obvious reasons.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

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    Default Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

    .
    That's a shame.
    "Trump's authoritarianism is a feature not a bug." -- Sky Blue

    "Thanks to FOX, talk radio, and the internet, the truth is available to all." -- mdh



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    Default Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

    Thoughts and prayers
    Tom

    "Leave the gun, take the cannolis"

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    Default Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

    Oh, cool. You guys are gonna do the poll thing again.
    Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country. John Fn Kennedy. (D)

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    Default Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

    Quote Originally Posted by mdh View Post
    Oh, cool. You guys are gonna do the poll thing again.
    Oh, not cool. You guys are going to do the bigot thing again.

    Jeff C

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    Default Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

    Quote Originally Posted by mdh View Post
    Oh, cool. You guys are gonna do the poll thing again.
    Looking at that map I would say most Oklahoman's have their head up their hinder parts, but I still have hope.
    "para todo mal, mezcal, y para todo bien también" (for everything bad, mezcal, and for everything good, as well.)

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    Default Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

    The civiqs site allows you to break it down by age
    https://civiqs.com/results/approve_p...ampaign=ticker
    that's where it starts to look really bad for the Republicans - the only age cohort that is net positive on Trump are >65.

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    Default Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugh Conway View Post
    The civiqs site allows you to break it down by age
    https://civiqs.com/results/approve_p...ampaign=ticker
    that's where it starts to look really bad for the Republicans - the only age cohort that is net positive on Trump are >65.
    There is some truth, it seems, to the notion that - in this instance - polls should be taken with a grain of salt.

    Because social acceptance of things like overt racism or misogyny is shrinking... what might be more accurate is to say that the Over65 cohort is the only group who is willing to openly express their support for Trump. The younger ones - not wanting to examine, or openly admit to, their support for Trump (and all he represents) - will lie to the pollsters, but pull the lever for Trump in the privacy of the voting booth.

    Add that to the 'too great' success the R's have had suppressing the vote of those groups who aren't likely to support them... and my conclusion is that getting out the vote is the most critical thing we can do leading up to this election.
    David G
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    Default Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    ... and my conclusion is that getting out the vote is the most critical thing we can do leading up to this election.
    That's the place where money makes the difference. Donate weekly, not weakly!
    One of the most enduring qualities of an old wooden boat is the smell it imparts to your clothing.

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    Default Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

    Down by 3 in Utah!

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    Default Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

    I'm not surprised by Maine his China tarriff s have hurt lobsterman and blueberry farmers hard, no subsidy like he did for the soybean farmers. The Chinese have also just reopened another closed paper mill.

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    Default Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

    It would be unprecedented for a president to lose reelection while the unemployment rate is below 4%, but Trump might manage it.

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    Default Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

    In 2016 the polls reported that most voters disliked both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Historic dislike.

    In 2019 the polls are reporting that most voters dislike Donald Trump. So, basically no change.

    I don’t think these polls say anything about his likelihood of winning. He’ll be hated by some and loved by some and those numbers have really changed in four years. It only matters who the Democrats run.

    I hope Trump loses, because he is the Ebola of American presidents. Worst ever, hands down. Bigly. Best result is if Trump loses by a lot, and the idea of Trumpism is smeared like roadkill on an Oklahoma two lane.

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    Default Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugh Conway View Post
    - the only age cohort that is net positive on Trump are >65.
    Also - important for poll accuracy - they are the only ones who answer a landline phone.
    Polling is notoriously difficult to do properly if you don't know where the person you are talking to is. You can't be sure of a representative sample.
    So over 65 might be the best sample out there, in which case ........
    It's all fun and games until Darth Vader comes.

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    Default Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

    And how much are you in denial Trumpy boy; considering that your messiah is destroying this country on so many levels and in so many ways?

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    Default Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

    Quote Originally Posted by Chris Smith porter maine View Post
    I'm not surprised by Maine his China tarriff s have hurt lobsterman and blueberry farmers hard, no subsidy like he did for the soybean farmers. The Chinese have also just reopened another closed paper mill.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhan...(entrepreneur)

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    Default Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

    Quote Originally Posted by gypsie View Post
    Also - important for poll accuracy - they are the only ones who answer a landline phone.
    Polling is notoriously difficult to do properly if you don't know where the person you are talking to is. You can't be sure of a representative sample.
    So over 65 might be the best sample out there, in which case ........
    Or maybe it's an accurate representation of the support for Trump. Because similar patterns appear in many polls conducted via many means. And so what matters is voter turnout and the electoral college map.

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    Default Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

    keep in mind, die hard maga'rts don't respond to polls.

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    Default Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Ross View Post
    In 2016 the polls reported that most voters disliked both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Historic dislike.

    In 2019 the polls are reporting that most voters dislike Donald Trump. So, basically no change.

    I don’t think these polls say anything about his likelihood of winning. He’ll be hated by some and loved by some and those numbers have really changed in four years. It only matters who the Democrats run.

    I hope Trump loses, because he is the Ebola of American presidents. Worst ever, hands down. Bigly. Best result is if Trump loses by a lot, and the idea of Trumpism is smeared like roadkill on an Oklahoma two lane.
    Yes, the question is, will Trump manage to drag the Democratic nominee's favorability down to his level, as he did with Hillary Clinton.

    I suspect this is part of Biden's appeal. He comes across as a decent, well-intentioned man, which makes him the opposite of Trump.

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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Ross View Post
    In 2016 the polls reported that most voters disliked both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Historic dislike.

    In 2019 the polls are reporting that most voters dislike Donald Trump. So, basically no change.

    I don’t think these polls say anything about his likelihood of winning. He’ll be hated by some and loved by some and those numbers have really changed in four years. It only matters who the Democrats run.

    I hope Trump loses, because he is the Ebola of American presidents. Worst ever, hands down. Bigly. Best result is if Trump loses by a lot, and the idea of Trumpism is smeared like roadkill on an Oklahoma two lane.
    You are correct about your 2016 comments. The GOP nominated the only person who could not be Clinton, the Dems nominated the only person who could not beat Trump. So he won the EC, she won the popular vote.

    But they do tell us something about 2020. Trump had to pull of a trifecta of state wins to win the EC. He only did so because of Hillary's unpopularity and because she ran a stupid campaign. The only way he can repeat such a feat is if the Democrats nominate a really bad candidate. There is a chance they will, certainly some of the rhetoric of the contenders is idiotic. But I doubt they will. Trump is highly unlikely to win imo.

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    Default Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    You are correct about your 2016 comments. The GOP nominated the only person who could not be Clinton, the Dems nominated the only person who could not beat Trump. So he won the EC, she won the popular vote.

    But they do tell us something about 2020. Trump had to pull of a trifecta of state wins to win the EC. He only did so because of Hillary's unpopularity and because she ran a stupid campaign. The only way he can repeat such a feat is if the Democrats nominate a really bad candidate. There is a chance they will, certainly some of the rhetoric of the contenders is idiotic. But I doubt they will. Trump is highly unlikely to win imo.
    We can only hope he loses. The best thing for the country is for it to vote Trump out in a big way.
    Elect a clown expect a circus

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    Default Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

    Quote Originally Posted by Bobcat View Post
    We can only hope he loses. The best thing for the country is for it to vote Trump out in a big way.
    honestly I think a second term with its numerous concomitant failures is necessary to purge the US of Trumpism and to force the Republican party into soulsearching and rebuilding.

    Perhaps I'm being overly optimistic though. I thought by now even his supporters would see the mans an ignoramus, but that does not seem to be the case.

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    Default Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

    Quote Originally Posted by bobbys View Post
    Democrats need more then ad hominems and free stuff.
    tediously predictable double standard from a Trump defender.

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    Default Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

    [QUOTE=bobbys; The OP believes they are all centrists, libs here are in denial all their candidates are bat dung crazy.[/QUOTE]

    You might want to take note of the fact that the lefty Squad's main issues are virtually all positions that the Drump campaigned on -

    Health care for all, tax the 1%, drain the swamp - just about everything except torture and the green new deal

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    Default Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugh Conway View Post
    honestly I think a second term with its numerous concomitant failures is necessary to purge the US of Trumpism and to force the Republican party into soulsearching and rebuilding.

    Perhaps I'm being overly optimistic though. I thought by now even his supporters would see the mans an ignoramus, but that does not seem to be the case.
    You could be right. We, as a nation, just might be that dense. But I'm not sure we'd survive another Trump term. I'm not ruling out this Trump administration being the tipping point in the U.S.'s 'end of empire'.
    David G
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    Default Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

    Moscow Mitch looks at those polls and surveys, too.

    That's why he wants the Russians (plus gerrymandering, vote rigging, etc.) to help get Ttump another term.

    There's no way Republicans can win a national election without cheating.
    We're merely mammals. Let's misbehave! —Cole Porter

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    Default Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

    I won't be needing any.

    How about you?
    We're merely mammals. Let's misbehave! —Cole Porter

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    Default Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

    Trump may be "self correcting" as we speak.
    The last time the market tanked this much we had to bring back a democrat to straighten it out. It will be interesting tomorrow...

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