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Thread: A 2020 Trump Warning

  1. #1
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    Default A 2020 Trump Warning

    Donít Assume Trumpís Approval Rating Canít Climb Higher. It Already Has.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/07/u...sultPosition=1


    And over the last few months, some of the highest-quality public opinion polls, though not all, showed the presidentís job approval rating ó a different measure from personal favorability ó had inched up to essentially match the highest level of his term.

    The increase in his support since 2016, and the possibility that it continues to move higher, does not necessarily make him a favorite to win re-election. His job approval ratings remain well beneath 50 percent, and have never eclipsed it. But the rise has some important implications in how to view his re-election prospects.

    One common view of the 2020 election, for instance, takes 2016 as a starting point. It notes that Democrats fell just short of victory, and that therefore any number of changes ó a better candidate, higher black turnout, and so on ó would be enough to win the election in 2020. This way of thinking assumes that the presidentís support would remain unchanged ó that he could do little to match incremental increases in Democratic turnout or support, compared with 2016.

    But it is not 2016 anymore. Millions of Americans who did not like the president in 2016 now say they do. Over all, his personal favorability rating has increased by about 10 percentage points among registered voters since Election Day 2016, to 44 percent from 34 percent, according to Upshot estimates.

    Some of these voters probably voted for Mr. Trump in 2016, even though they didnít like him at the time. But some probably did not vote for him: Republicans with an unfavorable opinion of Mr. Trump were more than twice as likely to stay home on Election Day as those with a favorable view, according to New York Times/Siena surveys of North Carolina, Florida and Pennsylvania in 2016.

    It seems likely that a substantial number of these voters now have a favorable view of the president: Over all, 28 percent of Republican-leaning voters with an unfavorable view of Mr. Trump in 2016 had a favorable view of him by 2018, according to data from the Voter Study Group. The aggregate national data suggests that Mr. Trump has gained more support than that ó if not from Republicans then perhaps from some number of independents or former Democrats.....



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    Default Re: A 2020 Trump Warning

    Fight Entropy, build a wooden boat!

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    Default Re: A 2020 Trump Warning

    I think that the coming election will have a rather spectacular (in US terms ) turnout, as the bases of both parties will be roiling. The question really is how much urban turnout can be jumpstarted in the Red states. And whether Trump will leave office under the voluntary or involuntary provisions of the Constitution.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

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    Default Re: A 2020 Trump Warning

    Say, theoretically, he does win again. What will happen?

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    Default Re: A 2020 Trump Warning

    Quote Originally Posted by SeanM26 View Post
    Say, theoretically, he does win again. What will happen?
    History doesn't precisely repeat itself... but sometimes it rhymes.

    For my best off-the-cuff estimate... see German history during the Weimar Republic period.

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    Default Re: A 2020 Trump Warning

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    History doesn't precisely repeat itself... but sometimes it rhymes.

    For my best off-the-cuff estimate... see German history during the Weimar Republic period.
    Hmmm... It seems to me that there is an amendment in the Constitution of the United States that is written to prevent the government from doing such a thing.

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    Default Re: A 2020 Trump Warning

    Quote Originally Posted by SeanM26 View Post
    Hmmm... It seems to me that there is an amendment in the Constitution of the United States that is written to prevent the government from doing such a thing.
    Ayup. That was the theory. It's been a while. Technology has changed. The effectiveness of propaganda has improved. Our cohesion as a nation has been eroded by decades of divisive political tactics. Etc. Etc.

    At this point - I'd call that a very frail reed to hang one's hat upon (if I might mix some metaphors).

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    Default Re: A 2020 Trump Warning

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    Ayup. That was the theory. It's been a while. Technology has changed. The effectiveness of propaganda has improved. Our cohesion as a nation has been eroded by decades of divisive political tactics. Etc. Etc.

    At this point - I'd call that a very frail reed to hang one's hat upon (if I might mix some metaphors).
    Frail... Well, yes, if you convince the population to give up its arms.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SeanM26 View Post
    Hmmm... It seems to me that there is an amendment in the Constitution of the United States that is written to prevent the government from doing such a thing.
    Silly NRA talking point disconnected from reality. If the electoral process elects Trump then the people have willingly given up their political power to authoritarian rule. No shots fired.

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    Default Re: A 2020 Trump Warning

    Quote Originally Posted by SeanM26 View Post
    Frail... Well, yes, if you convince the population to give up its arms.
    Nope. Frail period.

    Your argument reminds me of the discussions about the Powerball.

    As one old economics professor said, "After a good bit of research, I have determined unequivocally that your odds of winning the Powerball are statistically the same - whether you play or not."

    No one reputable is proposing that we totally 'give up our arms'. But your odds of overthrowing a toxic U.S. government are statistically the same - whether reasonable gun controls are enacted or not.
    Last edited by David G; 08-08-2019 at 12:47 PM.

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    Default Re: A 2020 Trump Warning

    Quote Originally Posted by SeanM26 View Post
    Frail... Well, yes, if you convince the population to give up its arms.

    When the population picks authoritarian rule they’ve given up the power the Constitution intended. You shoot your local officials, police and you are gone, removed from circulation as a threat to society. See Malfeur Wildlife Refuge fiasco.

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    Default Re: A 2020 Trump Warning

    You're a bunch of defeatist.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SeanM26 View Post
    You're a bunch of defeatist.
    No... mostly we're a bunch of fairly well-read, fairly-well-educated, fairly-experienced folks who hold informed opinions.

    I've been a participant or organizer of mostly anti-government or anti-corporate corruption and anti-democratic skullduggery since 1967 - organizing my high school against our idiotic involvement in Vietnam. I worked for Ralph Nader - trying to get the government to minimize the selling out to vested interests. I studied economic history which helps with a larger perspective.

    Speaking just for myself... I might be wrong about something... or everything. If you disagree on any point, I'm happy to argue it with you. But calling me 'defeatist' is insulting, ignorant, and foolish. If you want to argue... be an adult.

    What's that insurance ad tagline? 'We know a bit, because we've seen a bit'.

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    Default Re: A 2020 Trump Warning

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    History doesn't precisely repeat itself... but sometimes it rhymes.

    For my best off-the-cuff estimate... see German history during the Weimar Republic period.
    Mark, you and and now I have similar notions. The rhyme but not repeat pattern could be that we see significant economic distress prior to the election and that it is correctly identified as a self inflicted wound by the people who apparently can't read the other omens. I'd assume that would detract from Trump's spell which would help percipitate a swing in a different direction. It's clear it will take some pain to convince some people they are on a chaotic ride. This is bad.

    What didn't end well in Weimar Germany....abiding depression coupled with insane inflation ending in death of democracy.......might work differently here. Maybe depression will not be as deep, currency not as affected, etc. We would perhaps take a varying path but the end result, rapidly decreasing economic security, would be analogous. There are a thousand reasons why freedom from want is threatened in our current environment anyway, but with fools waging a masochistic trade war nobody can win, a downturn before the election is probably good news for the Constitution.

    This sucks but one way or another, we are going to pay a price.
    One of the most enduring qualities of an old wooden boat is the smell it imparts to your clothing.

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    Default Re: A 2020 Trump Warning

    Quote Originally Posted by SeanM26 View Post
    Say, theoretically, he does win again. What will happen?
    America will have shown her true character.
    Trust me to defend the Constitution just as soon as I'm sure you're going to vote for me again.

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    Default Re: A 2020 Trump Warning

    Quote Originally Posted by SeanM26 View Post
    You're a bunch of defeatist.
    If you prefer killing your local officials and security services instead of voting you won’t get far.

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    Default Re: A 2020 Trump Warning

    Sean, you haven't been here long enough yet to know it, but this place includes quite a few who worked in and around the armed forces world. Not me, but others. Some who worked on parts of the nuclear deterrent, others in active service. There are some grand stories written here from time to time, in the "first person." A much loved guy spent his career in covert ops, starting during the Vietnam years and carrying on for decades after. So when folks like these agree with folks like me (and David) that the 2nd Amendment is pretty useless now in preserving America's liberty against a tyrannical anti-democratic American government ... well, they know the 2nd Amendmenters' adversary very well.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

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    Default Re: A 2020 Trump Warning

    Quote Originally Posted by SeanM26 View Post
    Say, theoretically, he does win again. What will happen?
    Not much, just a lot of tight panties around here.

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    Default Re: A 2020 Trump Warning

    It depends how he does it, eh?
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

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    Default Re: A 2020 Trump Warning

    Quote Originally Posted by LeeG View Post
    If you prefer killing your local officials and security services instead of voting you won’t get far.
    I don't want to kill anyone. That is a ridiculous thing to say.

    Having safeguards in place for a doomsday scenario isn't idiotic.

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    Default Re: A 2020 Trump Warning

    Quote Originally Posted by TomF View Post
    Sean, you haven't been here long enough yet to know it, but this place includes quite a few who worked in and around the armed forces world. Not me, but others. Some who worked on parts of the nuclear deterrent, others in active service. There are some grand stories written here from time to time, in the "first person." A much loved guy spent his career in covert ops, starting during the Vietnam years and carrying on for decades after. So when folks like these agree with folks like me (and David) that the 2nd Amendment is pretty useless now in preserving America's liberty against a tyrannical anti-democratic American government ... well, they know the 2nd Amendmenters' adversary very well.
    Bejaysus, it was written to preserver the government not over throw it. It is amazing that people can type stuff on here but cannot read.
    The US Congress is granted the power to use the militia of the United States for three specific missions, as described in Article 1, section 8, clause 15: "To provide for the calling of the militia to execute the laws of the Union, suppress insurrections, and repel invasions."
    So the purpose of the militia was to protect the government. It was not to overthrow it.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SeanM26 View Post
    I don't want to kill anyone. That is a ridiculous thing to say.

    Having safeguards in place for a doomsday scenario isn't idiotic.
    I assume the safeguard you are speaking of is your interpretation of the 2nd Amendment. How does that “safeguard” work?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Peerie Maa View Post
    Bejaysus, it was written to preserver the government not over throw it. It is amazing that people can type stuff on here but cannot read.So the purpose of the militia was to protect the government. It was not to overthrow it.

    Apparently Sean disagrees.

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    Default Re: A 2020 Trump Warning

    Quote Originally Posted by LeeG View Post
    Apparently Sean disagrees.
    That was me, not Sean. And yeah, while the 2nd expressly describes the militia performing the functions we'd normally ascribe to a standing national army ... it was also seen as a citizens' bulwark against tyrannical authority arising in their own government. Having just gone through a revolution, the Founders were of a mind to think that governments sometimes become authoritarian, and may need force or the threat of force to be held in check. IMO that position may have been valid in the 18th Century, but as Joe Biden said yesterday it's become ludicrous. It would take "an F-15" to provide the kind of deterrence that many 2nd Amendmenters imagine.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

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    Default Re: A 2020 Trump Warning

    Quote Originally Posted by Lew Barrett View Post
    Mark, you and and now I have similar notions. The rhyme but not repeat pattern could be that we see significant economic distress prior to the election and that it is correctly identified as a self inflicted wound by the people who apparently can't read the other omens. I'd assume that would detract from Trump's spell which would help percipitate a swing in a different direction. It's clear it will take some pain to convince some people they are on a chaotic ride. This is bad.

    What didn't end well in Weimar Germany....abiding depression coupled with insane inflation ending in death of democracy.......might work differently here. Maybe depression will not be as deep, currency not as affected, etc. We would perhaps take a varying path but the end result, rapidly decreasing economic security, would be analogous. There are a thousand reasons why freedom from want is threatened in our current environment anyway, but with fools waging a masochistic trade war nobody can win, a downturn before the election is probably good news for the Constitution.

    This sucks but one way or another, we are going to pay a price.
    Hyperinflation in Germany ended in 1923. This was followed by the best years of the Weimar Republic. What brought Hitler to power a decade after hyperinflation ended was the crushing deflation under Bruning, who had the wrong response to the Depression. Bruning was in a tough spot, because the American banks had stopped financing the German war reparations.

    The trouble with so many people getting this wrong is that very influential people have learned the wrong lesson from history. I guess people want to connect hyperinflation with moral failure, rather than face the fact that it was the Very Serious People with their moralistic approach to the Depression who failed.

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    Default Re: A 2020 Trump Warning

    Quote Originally Posted by TomF View Post
    That was me, not Sean. And yeah, while the 2nd expressly describes the militia performing the functions we'd normally ascribe to a standing national army ... it was also seen as a citizens' bulwark against tyrannical authority arising in their own government. Having just gone through a revolution, the Founders were of a mind to think that governments sometimes become authoritarian, and may need force or the threat of force to be held in check. IMO that position may have been valid in the 18th Century, but as Joe Biden said yesterday it's become ludicrous. It would take "an F-15" to provide the kind of deterrence that many 2nd Amendmenters imagine.
    Between the revolution and the constitution we had a confederacy, and during that period, we reduced the standing army to as few as 80 men, according to Wikipedia. The founders did not envision a large standing army, or weapons that could wipe out a city in a second.

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    Default Re: A 2020 Trump Warning

    exactly so, John. Which speaks to Biden's (and my) point.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

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    Default Re: A 2020 Trump Warning

    Quote Originally Posted by TomF View Post
    exactly so, John. Which speaks to Biden's (and my) point.
    'Zactly, so if we can't rely on muskets to secure our freedom, how are we to go about it?

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    Default Re: A 2020 Trump Warning

    Quote Originally Posted by johnw View Post
    Between the revolution and the constitution we had a confederacy, and during that period, we reduced the standing army to as few as 80 men, according to Wikipedia. The founders did not envision a large standing army, or weapons that could wipe out a city in a second.
    They couldn't envision a standing army or navy at the time, never having had one. They couldn't pay the ones who fought in the revolution, let alone build armed forces from scratch. The states of the Confederation resolutely refused to pay, backwards or forwards. So in the foreseeable future, there was no practical alternative to a militia. But that's a practical question. Morally, if a standing army is wrong as a matter of human liberty, our standing army (navy, marines, air force, space force) is wrong, not to mention unconstitutional. Or we can treat the Constitution's treatment of the militia question as provisional, dependent on circumstances.

    The American military had had enough of "the militia" by the Mexican War, 1846:

    US soldiers' memoirs describe cases of looting and murder of Mexican civilians, mostly by State Volunteers. One officer's diary records:

    We reached Burrita about 5 pm, many of the Louisiana volunteers were there, a lawless drunken rabble. They had driven away the inhabitants, taken possession of their houses, and were emulating each other in making beasts of themselves.
    John L. O'Sullivan, a vocal proponent of Manifest Destiny, later recalled:

    The regulars regarded the volunteers with importance and contempt ... [The volunteers] robbed Mexicans of their cattle and corn, stole their fences for firewood, got drunk, and killed several inoffensive inhabitants of the town in the streets.
    Many of the volunteers were unwanted and considered poor soldiers. The expression "Just like Gaines's army" came to refer to something useless, the phrase having originated when a group of untrained and unwilling Louisiana troops were rejected and sent back by Gen. Taylor at the beginning of the war.

    -- wikipedia
    Trust me to defend the Constitution just as soon as I'm sure you're going to vote for me again.

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    Default Re: A 2020 Trump Warning

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    Don’t Assume Trump’s Approval Rating Can’t Climb Higher. It Already Has.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/07/u...sultPosition=1


    And over the last few months, some of the highest-quality public opinion polls, though not all, showed the president’s job approval rating — a different measure from personal favorability — had inched up to essentially match the highest level of his term.

    The increase in his support since 2016, and the possibility that it continues to move higher, does not necessarily make him a favorite to win re-election. His job approval ratings remain well beneath 50 percent, and have never eclipsed it. But the rise has some important implications in how to view his re-election prospects.

    One common view of the 2020 election, for instance, takes 2016 as a starting point. It notes that Democrats fell just short of victory, and that therefore any number of changes — a better candidate, higher black turnout, and so on — would be enough to win the election in 2020. This way of thinking assumes that the president’s support would remain unchanged — that he could do little to match incremental increases in Democratic turnout or support, compared with 2016.

    But it is not 2016 anymore. Millions of Americans who did not like the president in 2016 now say they do. Over all, his personal favorability rating has increased by about 10 percentage points among registered voters since Election Day 2016, to 44 percent from 34 percent, according to Upshot estimates.

    Some of these voters probably voted for Mr. Trump in 2016, even though they didn’t like him at the time. But some probably did not vote for him: Republicans with an unfavorable opinion of Mr. Trump were more than twice as likely to stay home on Election Day as those with a favorable view, according to New York Times/Siena surveys of North Carolina, Florida and Pennsylvania in 2016.

    It seems likely that a substantial number of these voters now have a favorable view of the president: Over all, 28 percent of Republican-leaning voters with an unfavorable view of Mr. Trump in 2016 had a favorable view of him by 2018, according to data from the Voter Study Group. The aggregate national data suggests that Mr. Trump has gained more support than that — if not from Republicans then perhaps from some number of independents or former Democrats.....


    Meantime... the ugliness spreads.

    Time to donate. Time to organize. Time to register voters. Time to educate. Time to take a stand.

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