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Thread: When wrong, say so.

  1. #1
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    Default When wrong, say so.

    [IMc - I hope Rep Omar corrects herself on this. Our gun deaths are unacceptable. No need to cite the wrong number.]

    Rep. Ilhan Omar's claim is high: There aren't 500 gun deaths per day in the US, it's closer to 100

    By Tom Kertscher on Wednesday, June 12th, 2019 at 11:08 a.m.

    U.S. Rep. Lucy McBath of Georgia, who became a gun-control advocate after her 17-year-old son was shot to death, tweeted on June 5 that she was praying the U.S. Senate would adopt the House-passed Bipartisan Background Checks Act.

    That drew a retweet from a Democratic colleague, Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, who added this statement:

    "Supporting my colleaguesí call on Senate Majority Leader to vote on H.R. 8, 1112 & 1158. Gun violence is an epidemic. Every day on average 500 people die from gun violence. How many more lives will we let gun violence claim?"

    At 500 per day, that would be 182,500 deaths per year from gun violence in the United States.

    The actual figure is nowhere near that high.

    The legislation

    The legislation (H.R. 8) would establish new background check requirements for firearm transfers between private parties. Transfers would be prohibited unless a licensed gun dealer, manufacturer, or importer first takes possession of the firearm to conduct a background check. There would be some exceptions, such as a gift between spouses.

    Currently, only federally licensed gun dealers, importers and manufacturers are required to conduct a background check for someone seeking to obtain a gun.

    The House, which is controlled by Democrats, passed the bill 240-190 in February 2019. National Public Radio reported then that passage in the Republican-majority Senate is unlikely. The White House has signaled that President Donald Trump would veto the legislation, which is opposed by the NRA. And Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has declined to take up the bill.

    The numbers

    When we last examined the numbers, earlier this year, the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported there had been 39,773 deaths related to firearms in 2017. 2017 is still the most recent year for which annual statistics from the CDC are available.

    The figure counts deaths resulting from suicides (60 percent of the total), homicides, unintentional and undetermined deaths, as well as those from law enforcement. And it was the highest tally in at least 40 years.

    Meanwhile, the average over five years ó 2013 through 2017 ó is slightly lower, according to Brady, the nonprofit formerly known as the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence.

    Either way, the total gun deaths per day is far fewer than the 500 Omar claims:

    Total gun-related deaths, 2017: 39,773. Average per day: 109.

    Average annual gun-related deaths, 2013-2017: 36,383. Average per day: 100.

    Two other anti-gun violence groups ó Everytown for Gun Safety, which McBath became a spokeswoman for after her sonís death; and Giffords, which is named for former U.S. Rep. Gabby Giffords of Arizona ó also use figures of 100 deaths per day or fewer.

    To get near the figure that Omar used, you have to count nonfatal injuries as well as deaths.

    For 2017, the daily average comes to 475 cases of gun-related deaths and injuries, based on CDC figures.

    But the CDC itself says its injury estimate is "unstable because of small sample size." And an analysis by The Trace and FiveThirtyEight indicates the CDC could be overcounting the number of firearm injuries.

    Finally, Amnesty International states that every day more than 500 people die from gun violence ó around the world. Thatís the figure Omarís office cited to back up her statement, and it arguably is low.

    A study published in 2018 in the Journal of the American Medical Association said there are about 250,000 gun deaths worldwide per year. That would amount to 685 per day.

    But Omarís claim was clearly made in the context of legislation that would affect gun transactions only in the United States.

    Omarís spokesman, Jeremy Slevin, defended Omarís use of the 500 figure. But he acknowledged to us that Omarís tweet was in the context of domestic legislation and that the reference to 500 could have been more precise.

    Our ruling

    Omar said, "Every day on average 500 people die from gun violence."

    Her claim was made in promoting legislation that would add new background check requirements for gun transfers made in the United States.

    Based on the latest federal figures, for 2017, the average per day was 109 ó thatís counting deaths resulting from suicides, homicides, unintentional and undetermined deaths as well as those from law enforcement.

    And itís 100 if you use a five-year average for 2013 to 2017.

    We rate Omarís statement False.

    https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...dJZOlHtVxGVl2w

  2. #2
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    Default Re: When wrong, say so.

    I learned something today. Thereís basically a Las Vegas gun massacre everyday in this country. The accurate numbers, whatever they are, are stunning enough. Thereís no need for exaggeration.
    Last edited by CK 17; 06-12-2019 at 06:22 PM.
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  3. #3
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    Default Re: When wrong, say so.

    This is the problem with extreme statements about touchy and serious issues. The real number itself is far far to high, but the inflated number makes the real one seem "reasonable". Was it an intentional slip?

  4. #4
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    Default Re: When wrong, say so.

    ^so why would a anti gun congressman want to make our levels of gun violence look reasonable?
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  5. #5
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    Default Re: When wrong, say so.

    Quote Originally Posted by CK 17 View Post
    ^so why would a anti gun congressman want to make our levels of gun violence look reasonable?
    Is she really anti-gun? I know nothing about her. My comment was mostly tongue-in-cheek, but the levels and layers of information and disinformation going around about everything these days makes me cynical.
    If she is actually anti-gun, she didn't help her cause. Kind of like the "30 magazine clip" sort of comment. Ignorance on a subject is never a good first step in a discussion.
    Last edited by Decourcy; 06-12-2019 at 06:53 PM. Reason: changed to appropriate (politically incorrect but accurate) gender pronoun

  6. #6
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    Default Re: When wrong, say so.

    It seems to be a function of our modern society that emotion is just as valid as facts. That strong feelings about something are more or just as important as knowledge.

    Ive noticed the new turn of phrase for stating an opinion or a feeling on a subject, or a recollection of past events, is "stating my truth".
    Im sorry, but it's not truth to feel strongly, and most memories are fallible.


    slightly emotional thread drift

  7. #7
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    Default Re: When wrong, say so.

    To bad Rep.Omar had to overstate the number of deaths per day by gun. But in the end, isn't 109 an outrages figure in itself?

  8. #8
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    Default Re: When wrong, say so.

    "I know nothing about him." [#5]


  9. #9
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    Default Re: When wrong, say so.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ian McColgin View Post
    "I know nothing about him." [#5]

    Haha! And that shows my level of background knowledge about the Rep! Ok, likely not a pro-gun infiltrator, just spoke before researching her subject

  10. #10
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    Default Re: When wrong, say so.

    At any rate, I question why A freshmen congressmen making an inaccurate statement about gun deaths is even news considering the daily shenanigans of consequence coming out of the White House.
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  11. #11
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    Default Re: When wrong, say so.

    In this case, it's that Politifact, so often seen by right wing liars as a lefty front, calling out an error by a liberal.

    Anyone trained as a scientist or a philosopher knows that one is always at least in part either wrong or incomplete. Get used to it.

  12. #12
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    Default Re: When wrong, say so.

    Quote Originally Posted by CK 17 View Post
    At any rate, I question why A freshmen congressmen making an inaccurate statement about gun deaths is even news considering the daily shenanigans of consequence coming out of the White House.
    I was thinking much the same thing.

    So, 500 deaths/day worldwide of which the US represents 100 or 20% while having roughly 4.4% of the total world population. American exceptionalism at work again.
    Steve

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