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Thread: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

  1. #1
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    Default A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    .
    Interesting:

    Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Trump by 13 points nationally, according to the latest Quinnipiac University survey.

    In a national head-to-head matchup, the poll found Biden taking 53 percent against 40 percent for Trump, with the poll's assistant director describing it as a "landslide" margin.

    Five other Democratic contenders also lead the president: Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) hold healthy leads over Trump, with Sanders up by 9 points, Harris ahead by 8 and Warren leading by 7.

    South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) and Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) lead Trump by 5 points, with each posting a 47 to 42 split.

    “It’s a long 17 months to Election Day, but Joe Biden is ahead by landslide proportions,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

    Biden’s double-digit lead over Trump is largely driven by the gender gap. The former vice president edges Trump 47 percent to 46 among men. But among women, Biden leads by 26 points, 60 to 34.

    Similarly, white voters are split evenly between the two, with Trump at 47 percent and Biden at 46. But Biden leads 85 to 12 among black voters and 58 to 33 among Hispanics.

    Both candidates surpass 90 percent support from within their own parties, but independents break for Biden by a 58 to 28 margin.

    National polls are not necessarily the best indicator for a general election, which will be fought in a handful of swing states.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...-national-poll
    "Trump's authoritarianism is a feature not a bug." -- Sky Blue






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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    HRC was ahead the day before the election...
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    Ignore all of the polls, they are meaningless in this day and age.
    Nosce te ipsum

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    Like the one on Mansfield, Garret?

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    Quote Originally Posted by David W Pratt View Post
    Like the one on Mansfield, Garret?
    ?? I'm confused.
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    Quote Originally Posted by Garret View Post
    HRC was ahead the day before the election...
    At that point, people didn't know Mr Trump very well.

    But national polls this early do indeed not tell us very much. They certainly aren't meaningless, but caution is needed.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

    Richard Feynman

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    But national polls this early do indeed not tell us very much. They certainly aren't meaningless, but caution is needed.
    So what is the accuracy of a poll this far out as to predicting the end result?
    Life is complex.

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    So what is the accuracy of a poll this far out as to predicting the end result?
    Quite a change for you to be interested in accuracy
    Tom

    "Leave the gun, take the cannolis"

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    Cool Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    Keep calm, persistence beats resistance.

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    ...and on this same planet, Rasmussen has trump at 50% approval.

    I was reading a thing yesterday about the "wellness industry" which characterized alternative-medicine practitioners as those who allude to scientific claims when convenient while generally aligning in opposition to the scientific establishment. I feel like the same applies to political polling.
    No adversary is worse than bad advice.

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    Well, Biden is going to cure cancer, and I'm pretty sure Trump won't

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    .
    This is the part of the poll I found interesting:

    Biden’s double-digit lead over Trump is largely driven by the gender gap. The former vice president edges Trump 47 percent to 46 among men. But among women, Biden leads by 26 points, 60 to 34.

    Similarly, white voters are split evenly between the two, with Trump at 47 percent and Biden at 46. But Biden leads 85 to 12 among black voters and 58 to 33 among Hispanics.

    Both candidates surpass 90 percent support from within their own parties, but independents break for Biden by a 58 to 28 margin.
    "Trump's authoritarianism is a feature not a bug." -- Sky Blue






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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    What, in real terms, should be different about our approach to cancer research?

    I'm under the impression that a great number of highly intelligent, skilled, and motivated people have been working on this, supported by immense resources, for decades.
    No adversary is worse than bad advice.

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    Biden has a 'lane' to himself. Sanders and Warren share a lane, as do others.

    As the field thins out and fewer candidates are left, it's just a guess as to who their voters will latch on to.

    Biden is running as "I'm not Trump" and seems to think once Trump is gone the GOP will cooperate. Like they did when Obama was president?

    He's, in effect, saying it's okay to vote for Republicans for congress.
    How do we form a mutiny? Our new captain is navigating poorly.

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    . . . and seems to think once Trump is gone the GOP will cooperate.
    Yeah, right. Biden's a nice guy, but this is not 1986, and the Republican party is not what it was.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

    Richard Feynman

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    Forget polls. Whatever putin wants, mcturtle will deliver.
    The best statement I've seen from this latest carnage came from a student who lived through it -

    "My generation will not allow this to continue!"

    Remember voting age is 18. Read it and weep reds.

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    At that point, people didn't know Mr Trump very well.
    The day before the election? "He's a Mexican"? "Grab 'em right in the P"? "I'd do waterboarding and much more"? "Go ahead and punch 'em out, I'll pay your legal bills"?
    Trust me to defend the Constitution just as soon as I'm sure you're going to vote for me again.

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    Yeah, right. Biden's a nice guy, but this is not 1986, and the Republican party is not what it was.
    Democrats have been in denial since Reagan. Biden's a nice guy, but . . .

    Biden said Monday, “Four years of this president will go down as an aberration … Eight years of Donald Trump will fundamentally change who we are in profound ways.” How can it be that Trump poses an existential threat, and if he serves two terms, it would produce a profound shift in American society, but that if he serves only four years, it will be easy to return to the supposed idyll that existed before 2016? The idea beggars belief.

    Despite the inexorable process of polarization, Democrats continue to insist that Republicans will embrace bipartisanship any moment now. Seven years ago this month, Biden’s old boss told supporters at a rally that everything would work better after the 2012 election: “My expectation is that if we can break this fever, that we can invest in clean energy and energy efficiency because that’s not a partisan issue.” This didn’t happen. The idea that it would be more likely after a Biden victory over Trump is even more far-fetched, given that the process of polarization has continued another seven years, and given the passions that Trump arouses.

    One needn’t accept the deep historical critiques of American society leveled by Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders to acknowledge that Republican polarization isn’t a Trump-era phenomenon. Trump represents a culmination of the process, rather than a swerve away from it. The Republican Party will not always be the party of Trump, but it will never again be the party of Bob Dole. (Democrats back then denounced Dole as an extremist, too, of course. It’s never going to be the party of Howard Baker either.) Meanwhile, Trump has catalyzed the polarization of the Democratic Party as well.

    If Biden’s “existential threat” language sounds familiar, that’s because Hillary Clinton mounted a similar argument against Trump in 2016. It was an attempt to meet fire with fire: Trump was campaigning by trying to spread fear, and Clinton offered her own dose of fear in response. Anat Shenker told Molly Ball that Clinton risked merely amplifying Trump’s message. Can Biden have more success? Maybe he can: After all, the dangers of a Trump presidency are no longer hypothetical but concrete. That only underscores, however, how impossible a task reclaiming the old “normal” really is.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...mpaign/591442/
    Trust me to defend the Constitution just as soon as I'm sure you're going to vote for me again.

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    .
    The solution is to turn out at the polls and vote against any Republican running for any office at any level. Reduce the reds in Congress to the point where their cooperation - or lack thereof - will be irrelevant.
    "Trump's authoritarianism is a feature not a bug." -- Sky Blue






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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    Quote Originally Posted by Osborne Russell View Post
    The day before the election? "He's a Mexican"? "Grab 'em right in the P"? "I'd do waterboarding and much more"? "Go ahead and punch 'em out, I'll pay your legal bills"?
    His voters knew and accepted that he was abhorrent, but there was some illusion of competency. it'll be ok because he'll hire all the best people, he's a very successful businessman, etc. That illusion has has vanished.
    No adversary is worse than bad advice.

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    ^
    This.

    My boss told me he voted for Trump because he felt a successful businessman could run the government like a successful business.
    "Trump's authoritarianism is a feature not a bug." -- Sky Blue






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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    Quote Originally Posted by Figment View Post
    His voters knew and accepted that he was abhorrent, but there was some illusion of competency. it'll be ok because he'll hire all the best people, he's a very successful businessman, etc. That illusion has has vanished.
    Well, there are still plenty of folks who will never abandon him regardless of his words or actions.

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    Yes, but the premise of this thread is that trump is losing the (mythical, IMHO) "independent voter".

    independents break for Biden by a 58 to 28 margin.
    No adversary is worse than bad advice.

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    True. Competence is what you want in a P grabber or waterboarder.
    Trust me to defend the Constitution just as soon as I'm sure you're going to vote for me again.

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    What a POS. (Source)

    Trump Can’t Stop Lying About His Unpopularity
    By Ed Kilgore

    Donald J. Trump did not invent the art of political spinning. But he has perhaps raised it to an infernally high standard of sheer mendacity in his determination to attack any information suggesting he is anything other than the most wildly successful and popular politician since Pericles. That means, among other troubling things, that he is engaged in a perpetual war against the scientific measurement of public opinion.

    Earlier this week Politico reported that the Trump reelection campaign’s internal polling was giving POTUS some bad news:

    "The Trump campaign recently completed a 17-state polling project that concluded the president trails Joe Biden in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, according to two people briefed on the results. America First Action, the principal pro-Trump super PAC, is expected to conduct its own polling and focus groups in Pennsylvania and Michigan later this summer."

    Then the New York Times reported that Trump was trying hard to suppress this bad news:

    "After being briefed on a devastating 17-state poll conducted by his campaign pollster, Tony Fabrizio, Mr. Trump told aides to deny that his internal polling showed him trailing Mr. Biden in many of the states he needs to win, even though he is also trailing in public polls from key states like Texas, Michigan and Pennsylvania. And when top-line details of the polling leaked, including numbers showing the president lagging in a cluster of critical Rust Belt states, Mr. Trump instructed aides to say publicly that other data showed him doing well."

    Trump then lashed out on Twitter with a characteristic “kill the messenger” maneuver:

    "Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
    The Fake News has never been more dishonest than it is today. Thank goodness we can fight back on Social Media. Their new weapon of choice is Fake Polling, sometimes referred to as Suppression Polls (they suppress the numbers). Had it in 2016, but this is worse....."

    "Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
    .....The Fake (Corrupt) News Media said they had a leak into polling done by my campaign which, by the way and despite the phony and never ending Witch Hunt, are the best numbers WE have ever had. They reported Fake numbers that they made up & don’t even exist. WE WILL WIN AGAIN!"

    There are several fascinating things about this messaging. First of all, Trump is projecting his efforts to suppress polling information by claiming polls are suppressing actual public opinion (a subset of his unsubstantiated claim that approximately 10 percent of his fans are terrified to admit it to pollsters because they have been terrorized by Liberal Elites).

    Second of all, he’s not simply denying well-sourced reports of bad internal polls, but inverting them: He’s never been more popular! That’s like a campaign whose wheels are falling off issuing bravado predictions of total victory everywhere to keep staff morale from collapsing and creditors from repossessing the furniture.

    And third of all, Trump is citing an old lie to support a new one: The assertion that 2016 polls were faked and totally wrong.

    Nate Silver has done his best to beat this lie to death, but it persists:

    "[The] myth is that Trump’s victory represented some sort of catastrophic failure for the polls. Trump outperformed his national polls by only 1 to 2 percentage points in losing the popular vote to Clinton, making them slightly closer to the mark than they were in 2012. Meanwhile, he beat his polls by only 2 to 3 percentage points in the average swing state. Certainly, there were individual pollsters that had some explaining to do, especially in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where Trump beat his polls by a larger amount. But the result was not some sort of massive outlier; on the contrary, the polls were pretty much as accurate as they’d been, on average, since 1968."

    Because Trump’s standard for the reliability of polls is how good they make him look, he perpetually hypes Rasmussen surveys:

    "



    Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
    Despite the Phony Witch Hunt, we will continue to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! Thank you!!"

    As Aaron Rupar notes, this is an effort to drive good data out with bad:

    "There are a couple of reasons not to give much credence to Trump’s tweet. First, as CNN detailed in December, Rasmussen — which is known to skew to the right — was the least accurate pollster out of any that released generic congressional ballot polls in the runup to November’s midterm elections … Secondly, and relatedly, the Rasmussen poll Trump cited is an outlier when compared to others. For instance, RealClearPolitics’ aggregated polling of Trump’s approval rating, which includes Rasmussen, currently has it pegged at a much more problematic 44 percent, with 53 percent disapproving of his job performance."

    This description actually understates the extent to which Rasmussen is a perpetual outlier: Not a single national public poll from any other outlet has ever shown Trump’s approval rating at 50 percent or higher, even in those “honeymoon” days immediately following his inauguration. He is the most consistently unpopular president since public opinion surveying began.

    That does not mean his goose is cooked in 2020; he was unpopular when he was elected in 2016, too. But presidential elections, even those involving incumbents, are at least partially comparative, not a straight referendum on the current occupant of the White House. So there is most definitely a chance that he can again slither across the finish line via a combination of lowering his Democratic opponent’s popularity to a level near his own, and then pulling an inside straight in the Electoral College even if he again loses the popular vote.

    In other words, Trump doesn’t have to lie about polls to maintain a credible candidacy for reelection. He just seems to prefer behaving that way. It is, at least, consistent with his treatment of other inconvenient facts.
    Last edited by Keith Wilson; 06-12-2019 at 01:54 PM.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

    Richard Feynman

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    Quote Originally Posted by John Smith View Post

    He's, in effect, saying it's okay to vote for Republicans for congress.
    Nah, he’s avoiding any negative characterization of Republicans as deplorables so that when election day comes around they won’t feel bad about sitting out. They won’t feel the need to vote “against” the greater of two weevils. They can sit back and sigh, “ok he’s a Democrat but he knows the job, isn’t a radical socialist, a woman, queer, or an Irishman”

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    Quote Originally Posted by Figment View Post
    His voters knew and accepted that he was abhorrent, but there was some illusion of competency. it'll be ok because he'll hire all the best people, he's a very successful businessman, etc. That illusion has has vanished.

    And it definitely was self-delusion if they read about his past.

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    Certainly, there were individual pollsters that had some explaining to do, especially in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where Trump beat his polls by a larger amount.

    Just enough in just the right places to swing the electoral college. putin could explain it.
    ---------------

    "Fake news! Fake polls!"

    If two scoops wants to create his own reality, let him. It means he'll just deny the truth, fire his polling staff (several teams over several months) and go down in flames on election day.
    The best statement I've seen from this latest carnage came from a student who lived through it -

    "My generation will not allow this to continue!"

    Remember voting age is 18. Read it and weep reds.

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    ^ Putin? or the'baggers who run the voting machines..

    another famous Russian leader, Joseph Stalin said some version of "It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes."

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Montgomery View Post
    ^
    This.

    My boss told me he voted for Trump because he felt a successful businessman could run the government like a successful business.
    No offense towards your boss, but that was a questionable position to take in 2016. By that time, we pretty much knew that Trump had a string of failed real estate deals to his name. We knew that he was spotted $100M by his dad to start his career. And by all accounts, his net worth would be hire today if he has simply invested in the S&P 500 at the start of his career.

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    Got a real nice bridge for sale.

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    Quote Originally Posted by woodpile View Post
    A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    Got a real nice bridge for sale.
    Oh look, it the one Trump sold to you . . . you paid what?!
    In the US this perverted idea of “blood and soil” over “constitutional principles” is the most radical and anti-democratic and anti-Conservative idea I have heard in my lifetime.

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    Quote Originally Posted by woodpile View Post
    A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    Got a real nice bridge for sale.
    On de Nile?

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    Quote Originally Posted by johnw View Post
    On de Nile?
    That's the river the bridge Trump sold him crosses.
    In the US this perverted idea of “blood and soil” over “constitutional principles” is the most radical and anti-democratic and anti-Conservative idea I have heard in my lifetime.

    ~C. Ross

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    Default Re: A new poll shows Biden leading Trump by landslide proportions.

    "Well, there are still plenty of folks who will never abandon him regardless of his words or actions." THAT is the scary part, and the faith I have in my fellow americans..very depressing and with drastic results for the country.

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