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Thread: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

  1. #1
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    Default The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    Yeah, it could happen.

    If (speaking purely hypothetically), All Democrats were of one mind, Trump would lose by historic proportions, in 2020.

    But they are not... and it's because of a pair of orthogonal axes that define centers of alignment, among Democrats.

    The 'east-west' axis expresses the distinctions between very progressive Democrats... and Democratic centrists.

    The 'north-south' axis is not one which individuals ascribe to, necessarily, but nonetheless represent a dividing line: old candidates, versus young ones.

    I don't think it's any surprise that there are significant distinctions between Bernie and Joe Biden (currently, the front-runners), along the 'east-west' axis... as well as between, say, Elizabeth Warren, and Pete Buttigieg, along the 'north-south' axis.

    The splits between the four corners of this two-dimensional field are substantial.... substantial enough to divide and weaken the Democratic effort to defeat Trump, whose base appears to be amazingly resilient. If the trend of polarization persists among Democrats, as it does between Democrats and Republicans, we may be facing a humiliating defeat in 2020.

    I think that a compromise is needed... and I have one to recommend.

    Pless is going to HATE this: The compromise is a Biden/Harris ticket.

    Admittedly, this compromise pays less respect to the progressive end of the east-west axis... but I am increasingly of the belief that a more centrist candidate loses less, in terms of enthusiasm and support, among progressive Democrats, than it gains, from moderates and independents.

    So, what does a Biden/Harris ticket provide?

    I think it provides the safety and reassurance which comes with Biden's experience... as well as the necessary direction towards youthfulness that Harris represents. In this coming election, the vice presidential pick is going to be far more important, than ever before... especially if the Presidential candidate is a senior citizen. Harris represents the future, which is something Biden cannot represent. She's tough, aggressive, and contains a lot of attributes that appeal to more traditional voters, based on her record as a prosecutor. She appeals to women and minorities, for reasons that are self-evident. She is well-spoken and presents an attractive, credible appearance.

    OK, my rant is over.... I doubt many will agree with me on this, but I'm throwing it out there....
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    I could vote for that ticket. Not my first choice (& no, Bernie is not on the ticket for me) - but that'd be tolerable - as long as Joe spent a lot of time on how much Kamala was going to do.
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    Compelling argument. If they were running for an organized party, I’d agree even more.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    I see that Sanders appeared with AOC today.
    Last edited by ron ll; 05-13-2019 at 07:04 PM. Reason: Didn’t proofread.

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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    Quote Originally Posted by ron ll View Post
    It’s that Sanders appeared with AOC today.
    There's a pair that'd scare the bejeezus out of a whole lot of people - not just Reps.
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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    Quote Originally Posted by ron ll View Post
    It’s that Sanders appeared with AOC today.
    I'm glad we've got AOC in Congress... but a Sanders/AOC ticket would be a guaranteed loss.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    As a different way to look at it, I find the division is between purists and pragmatists.

    The purists tolerate no imperfection, no matter how old. Biden and Hill is a good example.

    But the only pure candidates are those with no history, and that means no experience.

    Last, a lack of experience does not mean pure, just no track record of impurity.

    That's the problem with Democrats and it will fracture the party.

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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    Organizing Democrats is like herding cats.

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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    As much as I like Biden, I feel he is too old. It's time for Joe to let go. The Fact that Obama has let out a peep should say wonders. Harris I could get behind. I like Kamela more and more.

    As for the purists, Occupy Portland has torn everyone apart. I do not know what they want as a candidate, but they do not like any of them. They need to compromise some if they want The Donald out of office
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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    I'll vote for any Democrat that wins the primary. That said, I don't want to see either Biden or Sanders on the top of the ticket. They're just too damn old! I'm about as far over on the progressive side of the axis as anyone so the Democrats will get my vote regardless. I'm not in any way an undecided but I know more than one person that voted for Trump because Bernie got knocked off the ticket. I want to hear Bernie's arguments coming out of the mouth of a candidate that has a better than even chance of still being alive at the end of eight years in office.

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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    ^ piquant analysis. Maybe a very large economic shock will reset the US national "mindset"
    Xanthorrea

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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    Good analysis Norman.
    There is nothing quite as permanent as a good temporary repair.

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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    Admittedly, this compromise pays less respect to the progressive end of the east-west axis... but I am increasingly of the belief that a more centrist candidate loses less, in terms of enthusiasm and support, among progressive Democrats, than it gains, from moderates and independents.
    Yep. That thinking worked out really well for Democrats in 2016, didn't it?

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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    "As much as I like Biden, I feel he is too old."

    Art anyone much younger has an electronic trail that may contain things they'd not like known and as such may not survive the scrutiny afforded candidates these days. OTOH of course donald had it all out in the open and he's President. Not being given a viable choice in the US system get's you a pressure group's candidate.


    In our current Federal election 32 nominated candidates for all parties, including the two majors, have resigned or been sacked for 'inappropriate content' on FB, and other electronic media. All of them had printed material from their parties, some of them are still on the already printed ballot papers that electors will be asked to fill out and might well be elected. And if you cross them off as not electable the vote will be ruled invalid.

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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    And, Norman, don't forget the male-female axis. There seems to be a segment of Democratic voters who want a woman. For a woman they will overlook that she is old, white, wealthy, a Washington insider, and elected by a minority of registered voters. Nancy Pelosi might be an example of such a person; she certainly seems beloved, outside her district.

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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    The compromise is a Biden/Harris ticket.
    wtf?

    btw, is an orthogonal ax anything like a hydro ax???
    Simpler is better, except when complicated looks really cool.

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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    Stop axing questions.

    Did you know that "axes" is the plural of 2 different words?
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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    Another take on it. i'm not at all sure he's right, but it's an interesting idea. (Source)

    What If Electability Is More About Authenticity than Moderation?
    by David Atkins, May 12, 2019

    There is a big disconnect in Democratic politics right now. On the one hand, a majority of Democratic primary voters are backing Biden at this early date—not because he lines up with their policy preferences, but because they believe he’s the safest and most electable choice.

    Meanwhile, we continue to see stories of Trump voters gravitating not toward centrist candidates like Biden, but toward more progressive politicians like Elizabeth Warren and even Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Take this excerpt from Politico, for instance:

    "It was a startling spectacle in the heart of Trump country: At least a dozen supporters of the president — some wearing MAGA stickers — nodding their heads, at times even clapping, for liberal firebrand Elizabeth Warren.The sighting alone of a Democratic presidential candidate in this town of fewer than 400 people — in a county where more than four in five voters cast their ballot for Trump in 2016 — was unusual. Warren’s team was apprehensive about how she’d be received."

    And then there’s this:




    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ✔ @AOC
    About an hour ago, I was walking out of my office for the day. There was a man what I believe was his teenage son hanging a small sign they made outside my office (we let people leave well wishes on our wall). Astonishingly, his sign read: “Trump supporters for Ocasio-Cortez.”

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ✔ @AOC
    I was pretty astonished. We shook hands, he introduced himself, and told me he wanted to show his support. I could barely get my question out - I wanted to honor his positivity, yet respectfully find a way to ask, “How?”

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ✔ @AOC
    I somehow got it out: “With all respect sir, how do you... manage to support both of us at the same time?”
    This is what he said:“I’ve been saying for years that climate change is our most important crisis. You’re one of the only ones who‘s been willing to be decisive on it.”

    We don’t see these same sort of stories of Trump voters flocking to Biden. Instead, Biden’s support seems predicated on Democrats and anti-Trump independents who believe he’s the most electable candidate. Frustratingly, in the Trump era, “electable” is often code for white and male, a result of a narrative in which Democrats have convinced themselves that Trump defeated Clinton not due to any shortcomings on her campaign’s part but because Trump’s brand of racism and sexism cannot be defeated by a woman or person of color. This is both historically and practically wrong, creating an electability monster consuming the Democratic base.

    In short, Democrats are by and large making the decision to vote not for who they want, but for whom they are told other people will also vote.

    To be clear, this discussion is not about a majority or even large minority of Trump supporters. The number of actually persuadable swing voters is fairly marginal. But it’s important to note that Republican margins in many districts and swing states are already so small that it only takes flipping the most persuadable 3-4 percent of them to turn defeats into victories—and marginal victories into blowouts.

    This isn’t the first time that more conservative Democrats have taken the cautious approach to electability and turned out to be wrong. In 2004, Democratic establishment politicians backed fellow establishment candidates like then-Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and Minority Leader Dick Gephardt over more progressive, authentic candidates like former Vermont Governor Howard Dean. They then watched Kerry chase George W. Bush farther and farther to the right and eventually lose. Democrats who backed Hillary Clinton in 2008 insisted that she was more electable than Barack Obama, who they insisted was too far left to survive in a general election. I can still personally remember Valerie Plame’s husband Joe Wilson literally screaming obscenities at me across a table, insisting that I was clueless about politics, and that Republican opposition research on Obama would see him destroyed in a landslide against McCain. And then, of course, there is 2016, in which Clinton backers insisted that their candidate was far more electable than Bernie Sanders, despite considerable evidence that Sanders would indeed have fared better against Trump.

    Conventional wisdom and popular cultural media and entertainment narratives dictate that Americans are looking for moderate politicians who will work across the aisle to “get things done” and make compromises on behalf of the American people. That narrative, however, is belied by just about every single recent trend in American politics, from the 2008 election to the rise of the Tea Party, to the aggressive challenge to the Democratic establishment by a self-described socialist, and, finally, the election of an overtly racist authoritarian who had bragged on camera about sexually assaulting women. Moderation, from either direction, does not seem to be what voters are after.

    So what do persuadable “swing” voters want, and how should Democratic primary voters factor that into the selection of a nominee? One consideration is that for a certain type of voter, authenticity is more important than any particular policy concern.

    Authenticity is a frequently misunderstood concept, and should not be confused with honesty. Trump is a breathtakingly dishonest liar, but every time he opens his mouth, it’s obvious that you’re getting the real him, unfiltered. The real Trump happens to be a racist huckster with a total disregard for facts and morals, but when he speaks it’s fairly obvious where he stands on most issues and what he intends to do—even if he never follows through or has no idea how he will get there. When Trump lied about protecting Social Security and Medicare or about creating a better healthcare system without hurting pre-existing conditions, it was less tinny and inauthentic than the bravado of a man so clueless about policy that he didn’t even know that no conservative policy could accomplish those things.

    It’s also important to note that the sort of voter who switches between Obama and Trump or Romney and Clinton is not really “moderate,” but rather something that political scientists call cross pressured. Rather than seeking to maintain the status quo—the generally stable corporate-friendly policies—these voters tend to be more radical than typical partisans. But they tend to be on the extremes of issues that are orthogonal to the American political party divide, and oftentimes they are confused or ignorant of basic policy facts or where the political parties stand on them. They also tend to be relegated to the outskirts of American civic life: they feel both the economic resentments that progressive populists speak to and the cultural and social resentments that conservative populists exploit. As a researcher, I’ve talked to Obama-Trump voters who matched the “Bernie Bro” stereotype of being both racist and economically egalitarian, as well as ones who were stridently in favor of social and racial equality but hated any form of taxation. So how do Democrats win over these sorts of voters, and how do those voters make their decisions when neither candidate matches their ideals?

    One hallmark of these types of voters is that they strongly distrust politicians and the political system in general, believing that all politicians tell people whatever they want to hear while actually doing the bidding of special interest groups. They believe, not entirely incorrectly, that the whole system is corrupt. They despise partisan bickering—not because they believe that Congress needs more “moderate” peacemakers, but because they believe the bickering is an artifact of corrupt interest groups setting their lackeys against one another. When they say they want less partisanship, that doesn’t mean they want politicians from both sides of the aisle to come together to enact moderate policies. Many of these voters, after all, are not that informed about policy nuances or where the parties stand: some don’t even know which political party is the stronger defender of Medicare! Rather, they want politicians who they view as authentically placing the interests of real people ahead of corrupt special interests. The policy specifics are secondary to that. One of the great ironies of the 2016 election is that the famously corrupt and probably financially compromised Donald Trump somehow convinced a large number of people that he was so rich that he couldn’t be bought, and knew where all the loopholes were.

    continued . . .
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    And the rest of it:

    This is where candidates like Warren and Ocasio-Cortez can make a serious dent in Trump’s base. By being authentically themselves and speaking in plain English about the problems facing Americans, by talking clearly about the ways the wealthy warp the political system and exposing their opponents as corrupted agents of special interest money, they have a better shot than most at peeling off what few persuadable cross-pressured voters remain in the electorate. They can also inspire non-voters who have given up on the political system to give it one more chance. They likely have a much better chance of doing so than nominating moderate politicians who carefully parse their words and speak only in the most carefully poll-tested language.

    It may well be, in other words, that Democrats have been getting electability wrong for decades now, and that the biggest obstacle facing Democratic voters is their mistaken belief in a silent majority of voters more conservative than themselves. It may well be that the same candidates who appeal authentically to progressive emotional sensibilities will also appeal to the voters Democrats most need to persuade in the purple districts and states they need to win. At the same time, they might just be the ones to bring out people who otherwise wouldn’t vote at all.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    I need a graph.
    No adversary is worse than bad advice.

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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    And the rest of it:
    They likely have a much better chance of doing so than nominating moderate politicians who carefully parse their words and speak only in the most carefully poll-tested language.
    I agree.

    People are tired of the salespeople.
    Rattling the teacups.

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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    How do you reach people who believe contradictory things because they are confused or ignorant of basic policy facts or where the political parties stand on them?

    But they tend to be on the extremes of issues that are orthogonal to the American political party divide, and oftentimes they are confused or ignorant of basic policy facts or where the political parties stand on them.
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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    If Biden is the Dem candidate, young progressives will stay home and Trump wins. If Sanders is the candidate, old centrists will stay home or vote Trump, and Trump will win.

    The generation gap is far worse for Democrats, because they actually have young voters. And the young voters have to show up for Dems to win. Which is why the right focuses on voter suppression so much.

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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    Quote Originally Posted by Corvida View Post
    If Biden is the Dem candidate, young progressives will stay home and Trump wins. If Sanders is the candidate, old centrists will stay home or vote Trump, and Trump will win.

    The generation gap is far worse for Democrats, because they actually have young voters. And the young voters have to show up for Dems to win. Which is why the right focuses on voter suppression so much.
    What they need is an older presidential candidate paired with a younger VP.
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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    Quote Originally Posted by Art Haberland View Post
    What they need is an older presidential candidate paired with a younger VP.
    Or even better, a young presidential candidate with an older experienced VP...

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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    Quote Originally Posted by oznabrag View Post
    I agree.

    People are tired of the salespeople.
    Boy, Howdy!

    Quote Originally Posted by Corvida View Post
    If Biden is the Dem candidate, young progressives will stay home and Trump wins. If Sanders is the candidate, old centrists will stay home or vote Trump, and Trump will win.

    The generation gap is far worse for Democrats, because they actually have young voters. And the young voters have to show up for Dems to win. Which is why the right focuses on voter suppression so much.
    'centrist'.. vote iDJT? umm, missed your morning coffee?

    The first and last parts you nailed. Most independents (of all ages) I interact with say they will pass on a Biden ticket. Period. Forewarned is forearmed.

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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    One data point: I could plausibly be described as an 'old centrist' (although I'm probably too far left for that, really). You would have to shoot me to get me to keep me from voting in the next election, and there is nothing in the universe that could get me to vote for Trump. Biden, Sanders, Buttigeig, Warren, Klobuchar, Booker, Harris . . . I'll cheerfully vote for any of 'em, for they're all light-years better than what we have now.

    But as far as the Democratic candidate goes, I think I'm coming to 'anybody but Biden or Sanders'.
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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    Quote Originally Posted by Garret View Post
    There's a pair that'd scare the bejeezus out of a whole lot of people - not just Reps.
    Why do they scare you?

    The topic was climate change. The longer we wait to seriously address this problem, the more dramatic things will need to be done.
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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    Quote Originally Posted by CWSmith View Post
    As a different way to look at it, I find the division is between purists and pragmatists.

    The purists tolerate no imperfection, no matter how old. Biden and Hill is a good example.

    But the only pure candidates are those with no history, and that means no experience.

    Last, a lack of experience does not mean pure, just no track record of impurity.

    That's the problem with Democrats and it will fracture the party.
    Not sure I agree. I think Biden COULD HAVE PUT the Anita Hill thing behind him. Maybe he still can, but when he addressed this on "The View" recently, he said he was sorry she had been treated so badly, but didn't believe HE had treated her badly. HE WAS THE CHAIR OF THAT COMMITTEE.

    In the bigger picture, not one of the Democrats is perfect, but each and every one is a step up from Trump.
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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    Quote Originally Posted by David W Pratt View Post
    And, Norman, don't forget the male-female axis. There seems to be a segment of Democratic voters who want a woman. For a woman they will overlook that she is old, white, wealthy, a Washington insider, and elected by a minority of registered voters. Nancy Pelosi might be an example of such a person; she certainly seems beloved, outside her district.
    Her district must like her: They keep electing her.
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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    +1 Norman. I like Buttijieg a lot, and want to see him run a good primary, however, I tend to believe he is mainly advancing the GL cause (I can't remember the whole acronym). I like Warren a lot, too, but Trump's nickname for her probably sticks on too many walls. BTW, a comment on how Trump tends to suck the oxygen out of any room he enters. My dog can do the same, by dumping a load (we call it "downloading") in the middle of the room. Anything Trump says is a load of crap.

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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    I am hoping that EVERY democrat who stayed home in November 2016 because they didn't like their choices, will recognize the consequences of their apathy and that the very fabric of our democracy depends on Donald Trump NOT being elected for a second term, and they will turn out en mass to vote NO on the wannabe dictator/con man/scam artist currently occupying 1600 Penn. Ave. and his elk.

    Though I fear, like Norman stated, that there is divide within democrats. Unlike the R's, who are really about 3 things (tax cuts for the wealthy, guns, and "Christian Values") the democrats have a far more diverse platform. The current administration has (by design I am sure) done the left no favors, in that it has shifted political norms rather far to the right. When you have the right wingers calling President Obama, a centrist if not slightly right leaning, president a "left wing radical," you know they have shifted the norms far far to the right, to their favor. The Trump administration furthered that shift.

    I have stated before, I think we need a rather centrist candidate for now...someone who will be able to slowly but surely shift policy towards the middle again. Only then will some of more progressive left leaning ideas be able to gain traction. Otherwise it will be almost an extreme culture shock of sorts, especially to those "more experienced" Americans how have bought into this right shift.

    I do love the idea of a mixed ticket, with a centrist and further left candidate. That seems like it could accomplish the above goal while also not seeming too progressive too quickly.

    My $.02

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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    Quote Originally Posted by John Smith View Post
    Why do they scare you?

    The topic was climate change. The longer we wait to seriously address this problem, the more dramatic things will need to be done.
    What on earth made you think they scare me? Bernie is my senator & I've voted for him as senator & as representative before that. AOC is wonderful. Sure she needs some experience, but I love her attitude.

    I know it would/could never happen - but I'd vote a Bernie/AOC ticket.

    I said: "There's a pair that'd scare the bejeezus out of a whole lot of people - not just Reps." I'll stand by that statement - but I'm not one of the ones scared by them.
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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    Other things being equal, less experienced means less compromised. Just don't be stupid about it. That's how you get Trump. "I just really want an outsider to come in an shake things up."
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    Default Re: The Democrats' orthogonal axes could get Trump re-elected

    By now, the field of candidates is about developing a profile for future electoral events or for Cabinet appointments, methinks. There are only a very few actual candidates, with their number shrinking as the number of putative candidates expands.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

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