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Thread: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

  1. #141
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip-skiff View Post
    So shut up and buy in.

    Put your money where your mouth is.

    Get back to us in six months or a year.
    Quote Originally Posted by genglandoh View Post
    You are on.
    Lets see what the markets are at in 6 months and then 12 months.
    So, sweetheart. Did you actually pony up some cash to back up your profound faith in Trump's smoke and mirrors approach?

    Or were you just talking big and empty, like your hero?

    If you bought in, how do things look at the moment?
    We're merely mammals. Let's misbehave! —Cole Porter

  2. #142
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    It's cool, trade wars are easy to win. Right?
    Trust me to defend the Constitution just as soon as I'm sure you're going to vote for me again.

  3. #143
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Osborne Russell View Post
    It's cool, trade wars are easy to win. Right?
    Especially against a population of 1.3 billion. Slam Dunk.

  4. #144
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Only thing I own that didn’t totally effin tank today was a Canadien Pot company. It was actually up over 7%.
    Fight Entropy, build a wooden boat!

  5. #145
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Osborne Russell View Post
    It's cool, trade wars are easy to win. Right?
    Yes, how do you say that in Mandarin?

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Bottom's dropping out over here…………..

  7. #147
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Where's Mr. G?

    He had plenty to say on the subject not so long ago.
    We're merely mammals. Let's misbehave! —Cole Porter

  8. #148
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Today, the stock market is up a bit, not enough to cover yesterday's losses.

    Why is it up? Well, China decided to 'stabilize their currency, whereas, yesterday, they had decided to devalue it.

    In other words, China has demonstrated their ability to jerk us around with the stroke of a pen or the click of a mouse.

    With our Federal Reserve bowing to political pressure and cutting rates when there is no valid reason to do so, we have lost much of the leverage and control we should have over our economy.

    Sooner or later, this is going to come back to bite us. When we've exhausted the tools we have to pull the economy out of a recession, what price might China demand from us to not push us over the edge?

  9. #149
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip-skiff View Post
    So, sweetheart. Did you actually pony up some cash to back up your profound faith in Trump's smoke and mirrors approach?

    Or were you just talking big and empty, like your hero?

    If you bought in, how do things look at the moment?
    You seem to pick on people with views that are different from yours. But then I don't invest in the morning hoping to earn money for my lunch.

    I got some dividends on the 31st. I bought stock - about $800, that morning. After the recovery today I am down 7.5% - about $60. In 30 years I expect it to be worth $12K - about 15 times what I paid. What is not to be happy about.

    It has been a down month for my investments, but being up 18.7% in a bit over 7 months makes up for it.




    I was on vacation and read the news on my phone. Saw some comments by Jim Cramer - Mad Money. And then on the flight home I caught his TV program. I don't follow the guy but he does seem to agree with a number of pundits who agree with my view: The Chinese economy needs us as much if not more than we need the Chinese. And the recent FED interest rate drop was necessary in light of rates in the EU.

    But economics is not a hard science. It runs on decisions people make and often is a self fulfilling prophecy.
    Life is complex.

  10. #150
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    You seem to pick on people with views that are different from yours. But then I don't invest in the morning hoping to earn money for my lunch.
    I don't care what you do, up there on your shining cloud. Check?

    Geng keeps posting troll/propaganda threads, huffing and puffing for Trump. I challenged him to lay down some cash or quit blowing smoke.

    Why do you think you need to reply, when he's hiding out in the shrubbery?
    We're merely mammals. Let's misbehave! —Cole Porter

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip-skiff View Post
    I don't care what you do, up there on your shining cloud. Check?

    Geng keeps posting troll/propaganda threads, huffing and puffing for Trump. I challenged him to lay down some cash or quit blowing smoke.

    Why do you think you need to reply, when he's hiding out in the shrubbery?
    Because you believe your bullying someone to invest in the stock market is proper. Because you believe that the economy is political.

    I think you told us a while ago - although the details were scarce, how well you were doing in the stock market. And Trump had been in office for some time. Why don't you tell us what you are unhappy with the stock market over?
    Life is complex.

  12. #152
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time
    Because you believe your bullying someone to invest in the stock market is proper. Because you believe that the economy is political.
    I take it you did not read genglandoh's drivel.
    "Trump's authoritarianism is a feature not a bug." -- Sky Blue





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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    MTCH had a VERY good day.
    Fight Entropy, build a wooden boat!

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Montgomery View Post
    I take it you did not read genglandoh's drivel.
    I read drivel from a lot of people. But I read it from the point of view of believing that the economy is not the stock market and that presidents have much less control over each than most people here do.
    Life is complex.

  15. #155
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Get INTO the stock market? Only if your strategy is buy and hold. And only if you understand that you might just be buying at the top.

    But if you're trying to 'time the market'... I'd suggest no. Unless you are some sort of idiot-savant in that way, which hasn't been hinted at so far, you are generally far too clueless to pull it off.

    It reminds me of my youngest son - just back from Vegas. His meetings with suppliers at the trade show went well, but he also had a side-mission. He wanted to try out his own invention of a craps system. The good news is -- he followed my advice to set aside a 'gambling budget' and quit when it was gone. Also good news -- his $250 went fast, so he could get back to his business dealings <G>
    Last edited by David G; 08-08-2019 at 09:06 AM.

  16. #156
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    Because you believe that the economy is political.
    It's very, very political at this moment. Masochistic trade war: A function of Trump's politics over polity.

    Pressure on the Fed. Independent of the Executive? Not if Trump has his way.

    Politics are playing havoc with the economy at the moment hastening the moment when what was already a risky proposition pushes the eonomy into recession.
    How is this trade war with its destabilizing effects anything but policy from the top?
    One of the most enduring qualities of an old wooden boat is the smell it imparts to your clothing.

  17. #157
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    It's quite possible that Trump may actually be doing the market a favor... by promoting his brain dead trade policies, he's basically opening a 'relief valve', letting the market 'irrational enthusiasm' deflate a bit, rather than continuing to build to a far bigger blowout, later on. The underlying dynamics of this current market may not be fully appreciated by many: manufacturing is actually in a bit of a recession, for example, with two consecutive falling quarters... and that old bugaboo of packaging up junk debt into tranches (now called 'collateral loan obligations', rather than 'collateral debt obligations') still exists.

    I suppose I'd rather have a lackluster, sagging equity market now, for a few quarters, than have a far deeper and quicker blowout, later.... and frankly, it won't hurt one bit to let Trump make false claims about the 'terrific economy', while it is evident to ordinary Americas that it's simply not. We have an election coming, and with any luck, sanity in the White House may get restored in 2020.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







  18. #158
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Lew Barrett View Post
    It's very, very political at this moment. Masochistic trade war: A function of Trump's politics over polity.

    Pressure on the Fed. Independent of the Executive? Not if Trump has his way.

    Politics are playing havoc with the economy at the moment hastening the moment when what was already a risky proposition pushes the economy into recession.
    How is this trade war with its destabilizing effects anything but policy from the top?
    Since we are in the longest US economic expansion, it is foolish to think a recession is not coming. Despite Trump's valiant attempts to move us into a recession, the expansion keeps going. I don't see the presidential power you see.

    I am not privy to the FEDs internal reasoning. There are those who look at global interest rates and see those being an important issue in the timing and direction of US interest rates. I agree with them. I also look at the inverted yield curve and see channing demand as the cause not an upcoming recession. But I do know a recession is coming.

    I see a lot of problems with the economy. A good stock market increases inequality. Those in the bottom 50% are working too hard for their incomes. But that has always been so.
    Life is complex.

  19. #159
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Right now... most folks are considering getting more liquid... not more invested in equities.

  20. #160
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    Right now... most folks are considering getting more liquid... not more invested in equities.
    For the short term folks, the time to get 'more liquid' passed already.

    The long term folks already got slightly 'more liquid'... but not by much.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







  21. #161
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    For the short term folks, the time to get 'more liquid' passed already.

    The long term folks already got slightly 'more liquid'... but not by much.
    I have no doubt you know more about the market than I. For us - it's mutual funds and pretty much ignore them.

    But I'm curious why you say 'passed already'. Seems like - right now - one would be getting out of equities at or near the peak in advance of watching the fall and jumping back in at some lower valuations?

  22. #162
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Yes. Bought Disney today.

  23. #163
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    I have no doubt you know more about the market than I. For us - it's mutual funds and pretty much ignore them.
    Buying mutual funds and ignoring them is an excellent strategy, for many people... so don't disparage your knowledge; John C. Bogle himself would argue that you're definitely doing the right thing. Of course, WHICH mutual funds is always a question, since it certainly appears that, over the last ten years, index funds did better than actively managed funds, and had far lower expense ratios.

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    But I'm curious why you say 'passed already'. Seems like - right now - one would be getting out of equities at or near the peak in advance of watching the fall and jumping back in at some lower valuations?
    The ONLY reason I liquidated a small percentage of my equities, was to insure that I'd have enough cash to withstand the next recession, without having to liquidate any MORE than that... and I did it about 18 months ago... which was undoubtedly a bit too early, but then again, hindsight is 20-20. I have NO intention of selling off any stocks in anything like the near future. We have calibrated our living expenses such that the dividend yields alone, in combination with our Social Security income, is sufficient... and in the long term, we'll probably still get capital appreciation on top of the dividend yields.

    The ONLY anticipated selling of equities I am foreseeing is for the college education of my grandchildren, if the 529 accounts I already contribute to, are insufficient... but that is about 8-9 years off.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







  24. #164
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    Of course, WHICH mutual funds is always a question, since it certainly appears that, over the last ten years, index funds did better than actively managed funds, and had far lower expense ratios.
    I really hate myths.

    The indexes are actively managed. Funds that track those indexes are actively managed. All funds are actively managed. The mutual funds and ETFs I am invested in are actively managed. I pay about 1% in expense fees. Each has outperformed the S&P500 over all time periods I looked at by 1-4% after expenses.

    The big drag on funds are individuals buying and selling at inopportune time forcing the managers to underperform. Of course, there are also poor managers.
    Life is complex.

  25. #165
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Omfg
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







  26. #166
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    Omfg
    I don't even have to peek to know exactly what you're talking about. 'Just about enough knowledge to be dangerous'... am I right? Some folks are one-trick ponies. His pony is named 'Clueless'. His superpower is MessApprehension.

  27. #167
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    I don't even have to peek to know exactly what you're talking about. 'Just about enough knowledge to be dangerous'... am I right? Some folks are one-trick ponies. His pony is named 'Clueless'. His superpower is MessApprehension.
    It's not good to let bad information to float around like that.

    For anyone not familiar with these things, and virtually by definition, index funds are NOT 'actively managed'.... ordinary mutual funds ARE actively managed. An index fund requires essentially NO management, because by it's very definition, you know what's in an index fund: the stocks that make up the index. An S&P 500 index fund will contain all 500 S&P stocks (either in proportion to their capitalization, or equally weighted, depending on the fund). There is no 'management' necessary...

    ...whereas, an ordinary mutual fund depends on a manager to select stocks to invest in, and is therefore 'actively managed'.

    Example: consider a typical mutual fund, like the Gabelli Small Cap fund (GABSX). This is a regular mutual fund that invests in 'small cap' stocks.... it's management team selects which stocks to buy, so it is 'actively managed'. As a result, it has outperformed it's associated index (the Russell 2000).... but it charged investors 1.36% for expenses; the category average of mutual funds like this charge 1.15%. I own this fund, and don't mind paying a bit more than average for management, because the performance is good.

    Now compare that to an index fund, such as the Schwab S&P 500 index fund (SWPPX). This fund's performance, by definition, was equal to the S&P 500 as a whole... and as a result of not being actively managed, it's expenses were 0.02%.

    To the uninitiated, it might seem as if a percent or so, taken as a management fee, isn't a big cost. However, the management fee needs to be compared to the total return. In a year where the market returns only, say, 4% (yes, it does happen from time to time), a 1% management fee constitutes 25% of an investor's gains. Therefore, the performance of ANY mutual fund must be evaluated in terms of it's performance over and above the management fee.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







  28. #168
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    ...whereas, an ordinary mutual fund depends on a manager to select stocks to invest in, and is therefore 'actively managed'.
    And how do you think the stocks in an index get there? A manager - perhaps with a different title, selects them.

    Therefore, the performance of ANY mutual fund must be evaluated in terms of it's performance over and above the management fee.
    Yet, you have said your investments underperform the S&P500. Which you appear to be happy with.

    It appears many people are content with managed funds even those with high fees. Perhaps those funds offer something that those people want beyond ROI.
    Life is complex.

  29. #169
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    And how do you think the stocks in an index get there? A manager - perhaps with a different title, selects them.
    I ordinarily don't respond to anything you post, for fear that I might get banned, but I'm not going to stand by and let stupidity go unchallenged.

    Anyone with half a brain (and that obviously excludes SOME people) can simply look at the fee charged by an index fund, versus the fees charged by ordinary mutual funds, as I pointed out. An index fund manager makes NO decisions: the definition of his fund decides what needs to be bought. Consequently, the management fee is 0.02%... sometimes even less. The manager of an ordinary actively managed fund constantly makes decisions about what to buy or sell, and as a consequence, the management fee is relatively large, as I pointed out in the examples I provided in my previous post. THAT is the difference between 'actively managed' funds, and index funds.

    You can log on to any brokerage site, or even some free financial sites, and take a look at what the management fees are, for index funds, versus actively managed funds.

    Furthermore, regarding your crack about 'being happy' with a return that is lower than the S&P 500, only idiots would fail to factor in the volatility and risk associated with ANY investment strategy. People who are extremely adverse to risk might be entirely happy with a 2% return from Treasury notes.... those who are highly adventurous might be very happy to yield 15% or more from highly volatile and speculative investments. The percentage return is not the ONLY factor in making a decision how to invest.

    Like I said before.... OMFG
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







  30. #170
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    It reminds me of my youngest son - just back from Vegas. His meetings with suppliers at the trade show went well, but he also had a side-mission. He wanted to try out his own invention of a craps system. The good news is -- he followed my advice to set aside a 'gambling budget' and quit when it was gone. Also good news -- his $250 went fast, so he could get back to his business dealings <G>
    Giggle. I grew up in Vegas and through high school worked graveyard shifts at a gas station next to Caesar's Palace on the Strip. Quite a few busted gamblers straggled in and tried to trade their spare tire (or intimate services) for a tank of gas to get back to LA. Couldn't bear to strand them, so I did up some IOUs with my mailing address, filled their tanks on my tab, and wrote the amount of the gas on each. Most of the people (95%) sent me a check, some for quite a bit more than the amount of the gas. In some cases, mercy pays off.

    But Vegas lent me an attitude, sort of harsh, summed up as "Money talks. Bull**** walks."

    That kicked in when Geng started huffing and puffing over Trump and the stock market. To me, it was like someone lurking around a poker game, free drink in hand, and passing remarks. If you don't have cash on the table, get the f*ck out!

    I think of individual investment as a class of gambling. During high school, I played poker with a bunch of guys, most of whom had a lot more money than I did. When I was a sophomore, the ante was a quarter. By the time I graduated, it was a buck, with some hefty pots. To stay in, I had to learn to learn to play cards. It was also a test of instinct, picking up subtle cues from the other players, learning to fold on two pair (with the winner– surprise– holding four jacks).

    The stock market is similar in that as an individual, you're playing against those with way more money and far better contacts. My approach has been to do lots of research and to be patient as far as buying in, and likewise, cashing out. I don't have a system. I play each hand as it lays. That's worked out very well for us. With my wife retired, I've been cashing our chips for a couple years, while the market was way up. At this point I've got eight positions and only two (the most recently purchased) are in the red.

    But the investments are gravy. We could get by nicely without them. Which gets back to the kid. I learned early to keep my wallet in one pocket and my gambling and drinking cash in another. If you're tapped out, go home. When you get them mixed up, you're in trouble.
    We're merely mammals. Let's misbehave! —Cole Porter

  31. #171
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip-skiff View Post
    At this point I've got eight positions and only two (the most recently purchased) are in the red.
    I'd say that you're doing quite well.

    The only people who never have losses on a bad pick in the stock market.... are liars.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







  32. #172
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    I set myself up for one loss— wanted some sort of tech exposure and noticed an actively-managed semiconductor fund that was really ripping it up. I did 5-year graphs, etc. and it really did outperform all the index funds, so I bought it. Alas!

    Then along came Ttump and his China trade war. It's not a big bite, so I'll sit on it and wait for the next burst of irrational exuberance. Perhaps when Ttump loses the next election.

    I've been watching– not buying– this stock, Beyond Meat, the vegi-burger folks. Their IPO started at $25 per share and zoom.



    It's pretty volatile, lots of trading volume for such a small company. I'm waiting for it to settle, after a couple earnings reports, and might buy at that point.
    We're merely mammals. Let's misbehave! —Cole Porter

  33. #173
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    Seems like - right now - one would be getting out of equities at or near the peak in advance of watching the fall and jumping back in at some lower valuations?
    Depends on when you bought in. I've been working with a 5-10 year horizon. I think we're past the market peak. I'd have cashed out more stuff, except for potential tax bites.

    People who bought in recently, caught up in the frenzy, are looking at losses.
    We're merely mammals. Let's misbehave! —Cole Porter

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Looking at history, the figures and the graphs I reckon there's a recession in the offing.
    And profitless tech stocks and the prices of their stock is a good indicator that that fools gold is on a high.
    Last edited by skuthorp; 08-09-2019 at 06:13 PM.

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    I ordinarily don't respond to anything you post, for fear that I might get banned, but I'm not going to stand by and let stupidity go unchallenged.

    Anyone with half a brain (and that obviously excludes SOME people) can simply look at the fee charged by an index fund, versus the fees charged by ordinary mutual funds, as I pointed out. An index fund manager makes NO decisions: the definition of his fund decides what needs to be bought. Consequently, the management fee is 0.02%... sometimes even less. The manager of an ordinary actively managed fund constantly makes decisions about what to buy or sell, and as a consequence, the management fee is relatively large, as I pointed out in the examples I provided in my previous post. THAT is the difference between 'actively managed' funds, and index funds.

    You can log on to any brokerage site, or even some free financial sites, and take a look at what the management fees are, for index funds, versus actively managed funds.

    Furthermore, regarding your crack about 'being happy' with a return that is lower than the S&P 500, only idiots would fail to factor in the volatility and risk associated with ANY investment strategy. People who are extremely adverse to risk might be entirely happy with a 2% return from Treasury notes.... those who are highly adventurous might be very happy to yield 15% or more from highly volatile and speculative investments. The percentage return is not the ONLY factor in making a decision how to invest.

    Like I said before.... OMFG
    I just looked at the mutual funds that the mutual fund company I let handle my money offer. I own 5 of the 84 funds they offer. Over 1, 3, 5, and 10 years they have always been in the top 10 or so in performance of those offered by the mutual fund company and they have outperformed the S&P500 total return over those periods also. Yet 1/3rd of the mutual funds that Lipper compares them too outperform my mutual funds.

    There are a lot of actively managed funds that outperform the S&P500. That is after expenses. It is not what the fees are that is important. It is what reaches your pocket. A good mutual fund manager or a financial advisor my be woth his percentages.

    My comment about you "being happy" was not a crack. It was an observation that you believed that ROI was not all that was important. But despite the clearness of my comment, you seem to need to make my comment yours at my expense.
    Life is complex.

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