Page 3 of 7 FirstFirst ... 234 ... LastLast
Results 71 to 105 of 241

Thread: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

  1. #71
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Sharon, MA
    Posts
    22,822

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Lew Barrett View Post
    One might consider asset allocations according to a plan based on one's situation, not the market's. The individual might wish to review overall allocations every year and adjust accordingly although some unbalances (I'm heavily weighted in RE for example, a segment not so easily adjusted) are inevitable. There is no "good time" to get into the market if you're a small, private investor. Investing is a process, not a single moment in time.
    I agree that ones assets should be allocated with some sort of wisdom and plan in mind. I'm a bit less sure that the conventional description of asset allocation (mostly an issue of how much in equities versus bonds, for example) is necessarily the only way to do it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lew Barrett View Post
    The question suggests the OP believes it is possible to time the market. It is not possible to time the market consistently.
    Also agreed... anyone trying to 'time the market' is a speculator, not an investor.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lew Barrett View Post
    If I had to guess, given the market is currently trading at the top of a two year range, I'd say it's a dangerous time to be adding more to the stakes I already have at risk, but I'm ever more pessimistic by the day. Just look around!
    On this, I might disagree a little. For anyone who is a long term investor, there is no 'bad' time to invest... but certainly, some equities are a better bet than others. I might sound like a broken record, but strongly branded, large capitalization, dividend-paying stocks are ALWAYS a good bet, when viewed in the long term. Not everyone is good; for example, the GE I bought maybe 18 months ago, thinking that it would be a turn-around candidate, has been my WORST stock pick.. but others have been good. Also, real estate investment trusts, by virtue of the way they operate, have also been excellent; by law, they must spin off 80% of their earnings as dividends, so their yield is remarkably high.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







  2. #72
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Nashville TN
    Posts
    28,699

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Hi Norman!

    There's always opportunity even during disaster but I thought I covered the hows of allocation in the broadest possible way by saying "according to one's own situation." Allocation is another way of saying balance. What represents balance for you is different than what it may be to me. I think we have no disagreement here.

    Are there bad time to invest? I think there are but such times are usually shrouded in the moment and visible only in hindsight. If the world is on the brink of some shattering disaster it won't matter if one is invested in the market or not so at one level, why not invest? The obvious question is: invest in what? Some might say guns and ammunition, gold, non perishable foods and defendable land. Preppers! What a concept! Others believe that the economic and social structures in place now will survive any foreseeable events and those who have achieved a considered balance will prosper.

    I'll say it again. I'm a pessimist and see a lot of pain coming down the pike but since I am allocated according to a formula that works for me, there are no actions I can take to make the futures I see appreciably more comfortable by altering my plan now. Much depends on one's world view. Losing half a million species carries a lot of weight for me. I could not assert with certainty that an investment in Proctor and Gamble, Apple, Microsoft or Monsanto is any safer today than an investment in GE was two years ago.

    A future that relies on the experiences of the past is no longer a given in my view but I've been saying this for 20 years and have remained invested in vatious enterprises both public and private. I'm not sure what else to do.
    Last edited by Lew Barrett; 05-20-2019 at 02:01 PM.
    One of the most enduring qualities of an old wooden boat is the smell it imparts to your clothing.

  3. #73
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Sharon, MA
    Posts
    22,822

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Hi, Lew!

    Quote Originally Posted by Lew Barrett View Post
    Are there bad time to invest? I think there are but such times are usually shrouded in the moment and visible only in hindsight.
    Well, that's the classic problem, isn't it? Still, I don't think there is anything wrong in looking to history, as a clue. There are countless cliches about current events mimicking history, but I think they are grounded in a great deal of truth.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lew Barrett View Post
    If the world is on the brink of some shattering disaster it won't matter if one is invested in the market or not so at one level, why not invest?
    That is a reasonable point of view. One thing is for sure: if there IS some 'shattering disaster', the loss of capital in investments might be the furthest thing from our minds, so it pays to presume (and hope) that there will NOT be some 'shattering disaster', don't you think?

    Quote Originally Posted by Lew Barrett View Post
    The obvious question is: invest in what? Some might say guns and ammunition, gold, non perishable foods and defendable land. Preppers! What a concept! Others believe that the economic and social structures in place now will survive any foreseeable events and those who have achieved a considered balance will prosper.
    For me, the problem with 'preppers' and 'prepping' is that I don't think I'd find my store of guns and food all that consoling, if the apocalypse happens. There wouldn't be much joy in living, if that happened, would there be?

    Quote Originally Posted by Lew Barrett View Post
    I'll say it again. I'm a pessimist and see a lot of pain coming down the pike but since I am allocated according to a formula that works for me, there are no actions I can take to make the futures I see appreciably more comfortable by altering my plan now. Much depends on one's world view. Losing half a million species carries a lot of weight for me. I could not assert with certainty that an investment in Proctor and Gamble, Apple, Microsoft or Monsanto is any safer today than an investment in GE was two years ago.
    That is a fair point... but it's also a 'too-pessimistic' point, for me. You can't look to GE as any sort of model for any other company. Statistics alone would tell you that the collapse of a heavily capitalized company with a long history is an exceedingly rare event. I'd say you took a MUCH greater risk in investing in Tesla, as you did. Sure, it worked out profitably for you, but the odds were GREATLY against you, on a purely statistical basis.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lew Barrett View Post
    A future that relies on the experiences of the past is no longer a given in my view but I've been saying this for 20 years and have remained invested in vatious enterprises both public and private. I'm not sure what else to do.
    Not much else you CAN do. The good news: we're both old enough, that we will likely get 'over the hump' and shuffle off this mortal coil before anything severe happens. This doesn't console us, for the sake of our children and grandchildren, but then again, you can't be a mourner if you're dead.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







  4. #74
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Location
    Kitty Hawk, NC
    Posts
    8,461

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip-skiff View Post
    If you've been in for a while, it's a good time to get out. I've been cashing out for the last two years.
    Quote Originally Posted by Lew Barrett View Post
    The question suggests the OP believes it is possible to time the market. It is not possible to time the market consistently.
    So we have one person who thinks he can time the market and one who thinks he cannot.

    Professional investors seem to do well in timing the market, but because they are required to buy and sell when investors buy and sell, they get the blame for poor investor decisions.

    I used to "time" the market. From time to time I would decide to sell or not. And regardless of which I did, Over the next few months I would end up down about several percent on the amount I sold or did not sell compared to the other option.

    Now, I spend 15 minutes each day pretending to evaluate my investment options. But my real goal is to do nothing. The 15 minutes seems like the right amount of time to accomplish my goal. I am an incompetent investor, yet I still outperform the S&P500 Total Return. As do each of the mutual funds I have invested in for every time period that I have checked.

    I am sure both professionals and individuals can time the market, but I reach my goals without trying to do so.
    Last edited by Too Little Time; 05-21-2019 at 05:10 PM.
    Life is complex.

  5. #75
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Wow-Ming
    Posts
    18,591

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    So we have one person who thinks he can time the market and one who thinks he cannot.
    Please explain how holding an investment for four years and then selling it, according to plan, at a 112% gain is "timing the market."

    Seems like your purpose is to boast about your superior judgement.
    We're merely mammals. Let's misbehave! óCole Porter

  6. #76
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Sharon, MA
    Posts
    22,822

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip-skiff View Post
    Please explain how holding an investment for four years and then selling it, according to plan, at a 112% gain is "timing the market."

    Seems like your purpose is to boast about your superior judgement.
    He's Superman, don't ya know?
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







  7. #77
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Location
    Kitty Hawk, NC
    Posts
    8,461

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip-skiff View Post
    Please explain how holding an investment for four years and then selling it, according to plan, at a 112% gain is "timing the market."

    Seems like your purpose is to boast about your superior judgement.
    You made the general comment "If you've been in for a while, it's a good time to get out." That seems to be a recommendation for timing the market. It even seems to be a recommendation that this is the time.

    I am sure at some point you will think it is appropriate to reenter the market. While your 25% annual gain on your investment sounds impressive, I look at the long term return on all of my money. Not just the short term investments where I have been right.


    I think I said I lack superior judgment. Doing nothing is much better than my judgment.
    Life is complex.

  8. #78
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Wow-Ming
    Posts
    18,591

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    I think I said I lack superior judgment. Doing nothing is much better than my judgment.
    You might try practicing that when it comes to replying to posts.
    We're merely mammals. Let's misbehave! óCole Porter

  9. #79
    Join Date
    Apr 1999
    Location
    West Boothbay Harbor, Maine
    Posts
    24,026

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Sold some stock, bought others.

  10. #80
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Nashville TN
    Posts
    28,699

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post

    For me, the problem with 'preppers' and 'prepping' is that I don't think I'd find my store of guns and food all that consoling, if the apocalypse happens. There wouldn't be much joy in living, if that happened, would there be?



    That is a fair point... but it's also a 'too-pessimistic' point, for me.......

    As I say, we're pretty much in agreement on most of this perhaps apart from my pessimism about the general future of the planet. The only question in my mind is how deep the notch will be and when the complex systems we rely on will start to visibly deteriorate. About that we could argue until the sun expands to consume the earth. At which point I will proven to have been correct all along, leaving the only question to be "is it too late to sell Microsoft?"

    As for prepping...,.I know I'd find the food more comforting than the guns but I also agree that I'd find little comfort in either if the world was falling down around our ears. I'm one of those who has an uncertainty about the benefits of surviving a nuclear holocaust.
    One of the most enduring qualities of an old wooden boat is the smell it imparts to your clothing.

  11. #81
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    Central Coast, Ca
    Posts
    24,613

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Selling is about making money. If you made money you're doing it right.

    "High" and "low" are not timing.

    (When do you sell Tesla?)

  12. #82
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    30,342

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Tesla has the potential of being another Motorola. MOT owned the cellular phone industry but let it slip away because they were distracted by all the other things they were doing at the same time.

    What's Musk up to these days? Rockets. Solar. Tequila. TEQUILA!?

    What's the competition up to? Hybrids and electrics.
    The best statement I've seen from this latest carnage came from a student who lived through it -

    "My generation will not allow this to continue!"

    Remember voting age is 18. Read it and weep reds.

  13. #83
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    Central Coast, Ca
    Posts
    24,613

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    I recall a recommendation here to buy at around $25, and a sell at around $50!
    From that perspective this looks like a buying opportunity

    IMG_4766.jpg

  14. #84
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Ohio USA
    Posts
    9,930

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by genglandoh View Post
    The market dropped last week because of the increase in tariffs on goods from China.
    The stock market just opened and has dropped about 450 points of 1.7% at about 25,500.

    I think this is just a short term reaction and the fundamentals are still good.
    The reasons why I think the stock market will do well
    1. The US GDP is doing well.
    2. US Job growth is doing well.
    3. Companies was doing well.
    4. The Market has factored in all the so called bad news about the Trade Talks with China.
    5. There will be no War with, North Korea, Iran, etc.
    6. When the China Trade deal is complete the Market will see a nice bump up.
    7. Many of the Anti-Trump investors who took their money out of the Market when Trump was elected will start to get back into the market.
    "The only rules that really matter are these: what a man can do and what a man canít do." Captain Jack Sparrow

  15. #85
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    Central Coast, Ca
    Posts
    24,613

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    The reasons why I think there will be a correction.

    The current administration is populated by incompetent idiots.

  16. #86
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Sharon, MA
    Posts
    22,822

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by genglandoh View Post
    The reasons why I think the stock market will do well
    You could have come up with similar, and quite convincing list, a month before the stock market melted down in the wake of the 2008 crash.

    One thing that is UNIVERSAL across ALL recessions, is this: precious few people ever see it coming, including a LOT of exceptionally smart people, a great deal more intelligent than you or me.
    Last edited by Norman Bernstein; 05-28-2019 at 03:23 PM.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







  17. #87
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Location
    Kitty Hawk, NC
    Posts
    8,461

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by genglandoh View Post
    The reasons why I think the stock market will do well
    I think your list is too long, but read on.

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    You could have come up with similar, and quite convincing list, a month before the stock market melted down in the wake of the 2008 crash.
    Those who invested in the S&P500 anytime between 30 years prior to 2008 until 30 years prior to now - so that 2008 was significant to them, earned over 10% annualized in the stock market.

    One might argue that getting out near the peak and getting in after the low would have made a large difference in the current balance, but 10% annualized is pretty good investing. Even a dummy can invest in an S&P500 index fund.

    As I said before many people - many smart, invested in the Magellan Fund while it was outperforming a booming S&P 500. 1/2 of those people lost money because they bought high and sold low. For them it might never be a good time to get into the stock market.
    Life is complex.

  18. #88
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    Central Coast, Ca
    Posts
    24,613

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    bump...

  19. #89
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Wow-Ming
    Posts
    18,591

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    If you stumble into investments with no clear aims and don't bother to do research, then index funds are the ticket, I guess.

    But if you do some research and comparison and track long-term performance, you can do better without taking any serious risks.

    Being a science person, I like graphs, and here's one I really like:



    That's a portfolio with three stocks and three index funds. I just cashed out two index funds. If the market holds up, I'll probably close out the rest next year.
    We're merely mammals. Let's misbehave! óCole Porter

  20. #90
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Sharon, MA
    Posts
    22,822

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip-skiff View Post
    If you stumble into investments with no clear aims and don't bother to do research, then index funds are the ticket, I guess.

    But if you do some research and comparison and track long-term performance, you can do better without taking any serious risks.

    That's a portfolio with three stocks and three index funds. I just cashed out two index funds. If the market holds up, I'll probably close out the rest next year.
    I'm glad you did well, of course....

    ...but I will contend that your success (with only THREE stocks) owes FAR more to 'luck', than it does to any 'research and comparison'. You had great performance in a one-year period... on only three stocks... how have you done, and how would you do, over a far longer period? 'One year' is speculation, not investing.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







  21. #91
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Location
    Kitty Hawk, NC
    Posts
    8,461

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip-skiff View Post
    Being a science person, I like graphs, and here's one I really like:



    That's a portfolio with three stocks and three index funds. I just cashed out two index funds. If the market holds up, I'll probably close out the rest next year.
    My wife limits the amount of gains I can recognize so I cannot sell investments when I want to. Due to that my overall performance is somewhat less than yours. But as of that date the investments I have been a desire to keep are up about the same 20% over that time period.

    I am sure that Chip-skiff has done well enough for his purposes and time frame. My time frame is much too long for me to do research and then expect my heirs to keep doing research.

    One of my kids does no research. The other does a significant amount. Both have achieved sufficient performance to ensure a good retirement. And they have 20 years to go before then. I think research is a bit overrated.
    Life is complex.

  22. #92
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Ohio USA
    Posts
    9,930

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Today The Dow Jones index is down about 7% from the record high of 26,828.39, set on October 3, 2018.
    So if the Dow just gets back to the last record high (and it will sometime) you will make a nice 7% gain.

    Some of the questions are
    1. How long will it take?
    2. Will it drop more before it comes back?
    3. Will it go higher than the record high?
    4. Are there better investments that will do better than the Market?

    I expect a nice bump up when the China Trade deal is signed.
    "The only rules that really matter are these: what a man can do and what a man canít do." Captain Jack Sparrow

  23. #93
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Sharon, MA
    Posts
    22,822

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by genglandoh View Post
    I expect a nice bump up when the China Trade deal is signed.
    You expected a 'nice bump' when Trump's tax cut was passed.

    Show me a graph, which indicates the difference in the performance of the stock market during the Obama administration AND the Trump administration, and illustrate what changed. If Trump deserves accolades for the economic performance of the country as a result of his policies, it should be EASY to demonstrate, right?

    Or perhaps you'd rather not?
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







  24. #94
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Location
    Kitty Hawk, NC
    Posts
    8,461

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by genglandoh View Post
    Today The Dow Jones index is down about 7% from the record high of 26,828.39, set on October 3, 2018.
    So if the Dow just gets back to the last record high (and it will sometime) you will make a nice 7% gain.

    Some of the questions are
    1. How long will it take?
    2. Will it drop more before it comes back?
    3. Will it go higher than the record high?
    4. Are there better investments that will do better than the Market?
    The nice things about my market model and peaks is that I can take my investments at the market peak and apply 10% ROI to find the "guaranteed" value 30 years from that peak.

    Your question 4 is the one one that interests me. When I find that the public markets no longer give me 10% ROI, I will start a business that will give me not only 10%, but a premium for me starting a business.
    Life is complex.

  25. #95
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Ohio USA
    Posts
    9,930

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    I did not expect President Trump would threaten use Tariffs to push Mexico to help in the southern border.

    The Dow is down about 1% so far today.
    "The only rules that really matter are these: what a man can do and what a man canít do." Captain Jack Sparrow

  26. #96
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Sharon, MA
    Posts
    22,822

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by genglandoh View Post
    I did not expect President Trump would threaten use Tariffs to push Mexico to help in the southern border.
    Why not? Clearly, the damage he is doing to the economy, and to consumers in particular, has NEVER been a concern of his.

    Michael Bloomberg: “President Trump’s approach to trade policy had set new benchmarks of incoherence and irresponsibility even before his threat to impose escalating tariffs on imports from Mexico — but this latest maneuver takes the cake. The administration plans to harm businesses north and south of the border, and to impose additional new taxes on U.S. consumers, not to remedy a real or imagined trade grievance but to force Mexico to curb migration to the U.S.”

    “This is a radical and disturbing development. The administration is invoking a law that allows it to impose emergency economic sanctions. It’s safe to say that Congress never envisaged that those powers would be used in a case like this.”
    .
    Last edited by Norman Bernstein; 05-31-2019 at 11:39 AM.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







  27. #97
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Wow-Ming
    Posts
    18,591

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    I'm glad you did well, of course....

    ...but I will contend that your success (with only THREE stocks) owes FAR more to 'luck', than it does to any 'research and comparison'. You had great performance in a one-year period... on only three stocks... how have you done, and how would you do, over a far longer period? 'One year' is speculation, not investing.
    The graph is for one year. I bought the three stocks and three funds 4-5 years ago.

    The point is the recent spread between the NASDAQ and S&P 500 and the six (carefully selected) items in the portfolio. There were several other positions that were cashed out in the last two years.

    My guess: the more stocks and funds you hold, the closer your performance will be to the indices, i.e. average.
    We're merely mammals. Let's misbehave! óCole Porter

  28. #98
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Location
    Kitty Hawk, NC
    Posts
    8,461

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip-skiff View Post
    The point is the recent spread between the NASDAQ and S&P 500 and the six (carefully selected) items in the portfolio. There were several other positions that were cashed out in the last two years.

    My guess: the more stocks and funds you hold, the closer your performance will be to the indices, i.e. average.
    Clearly, if you hold all the stocks in the index, you will "match" the index.

    Clearly, if each day you day trade and pick the best performing stock of those available, you will quickly become a billionaire.

    But careful selection is very difficult. And at some point the market opportunity becomes very small compared to what one might want to invest.
    Life is complex.

  29. #99
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Ohio USA
    Posts
    9,930

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Good News, the Dow closed yesterday at about 26,500 or about 1,000 points higher then when I started this thread.
    A nice 4% increase in 1 month, 25,500 to 26,500.

    I wonder how long it will be before the Market started to hit new highs.

    Title: The Dow is now on pace for its best June return in 80 years, but the Fed could change that in a heartbeat
    The S&P 500 index SPX, -0.03% is on track for its best June return, with a gain of about 6%, since 1955 when the broad-market benchmark rose 8.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.06% was on track for a 6.8% return, which would represent its best June since a 16.6% gain back in 2000. The S&P 500 is within 1% of its April 30 closing record, while the Dow is less than 1.4% short of its all-time closing peak.
    Link: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...eat-2019-06-18
    "The only rules that really matter are these: what a man can do and what a man canít do." Captain Jack Sparrow

  30. #100
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    27,892

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    There are two ways to put money into the market: either gamble that you know more than the pros or just put a fixed amount of every paycheck into a broad-based mutual fund no matter what the market is doing. My friends who do the former tell stories of their big wins and stay very quiet about the big losses I know they have. I have saved up enough to retire and I never look to see what the market is doing. It will fall and it will rise again...

  31. #101
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Location
    Kitty Hawk, NC
    Posts
    8,461

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by genglandoh View Post
    Good News, the Dow closed yesterday at about 26,500 or about 1,000 points higher then when I started this thread.
    A nice 4% increase in 1 month, 25,500 to 26,500.

    I wonder how long it will be before the Market started to hit new highs.

    Title: The Dow is now on pace for its best June return in 80 years,
    My annualized ROI since 1/1/18 is over 10%. As far as I am concerned June was the same as May.

    Well, I did turn 70-1/2 a few days ago. And did my QCD today.

    I continue to expect .83% increase each month. So a new high is not far away. Or it is.
    Life is complex.

  32. #102
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Ohio USA
    Posts
    9,930

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    The S&P 500 closed at a record high yesterday.
    Interesting how in just 1 month the markets have gone up about 5%.

    1 month ago when I started this thread many people were saying the market was heading lower and the US economy was heading to a recession.
    But it was just a short term market move and not a trend because the fundamentals are still very good.

    I hope people did not take their money out of the stock market and missed this nice move.

    Title: U.S. stocks surge as S&P 500 hits record high
    The S&P 500 stock index closed at an all-time high Thursday, following the Federal Reserve's announcement on Wednesday that it would consider cutting interest rates to keep the economy in expansion mode.
    The S&P 500 added 28 points, or nearly 1%, to close at 2,954 -- that topped the previous high of 2,946 on April 30. The Dow added 249 points, rising 1% to 26,753, marking its highest trading level since its Oct. 3, 2018, close of 26,828. The Nasdaq added 64 points, climbing 0.8% to 8,051. That's just 0.7% below its May 3 all-time high of 8,164.
    Link: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sp-500-...nterest-rates/
    "The only rules that really matter are these: what a man can do and what a man canít do." Captain Jack Sparrow

  33. #103
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Sharon, MA
    Posts
    22,822

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by genglandoh View Post
    .
    1 month ago when I started this thread many people were saying the market was heading lower and the US economy was heading to a recession.
    But it was just a short term market move and not a trend because the fundamentals are still very good..,
    I think that was a case of you reading, but failing to understand what was said.

    Yes, the market has been terrific in recent months.... no, this does NOT mean that the seeds haven't been planted for an eventual recession. Any fool can look at historical graphs and see that recessions ARE indeed cyclical... and it takes a truly special kind of fool to think that the market can go up indefinitely.

    So, what would be more foolish? To keep a fairly significant amount of investments in cash, so that the damage will be limited when the next recession comes? Or to remain fully invested in equities, so as not to 'miss' this red-hot market?

    It wouldn't take all that much to trigger the next pullback.... a significant rise in interest rates... a shooting war with Iran... the collapse of an as-of-yet-unseen financial bubble... and we could be is serious negative territory. As it is, we're looking (intermittently) at inverted yield curves, which traditionally has been an ominous warning of impending recession.

    Sure, I'm glad to see noticeable gains in my investments NOW... but I tread very lightly, because what goes up, will inevitably go down.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







  34. #104
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Ohio USA
    Posts
    9,930

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    I think that was a case of you reading, but failing to understand what was said.

    Yes, the market has been terrific in recent months.... no, this does NOT mean that the seeds haven't been planted for an eventual recession. Any fool can look at historical graphs and see that recessions ARE indeed cyclical... and it takes a truly special kind of fool to think that the market can go up indefinitely.

    So, what would be more foolish? To keep a fairly significant amount of investments in cash, so that the damage will be limited when the next recession comes? Or to remain fully invested in equities, so as not to 'miss' this red-hot market?

    It wouldn't take all that much to trigger the next pullback.... a significant rise in interest rates... a shooting war with Iran... the collapse of an as-of-yet-unseen financial bubble... and we could be is serious negative territory. As it is, we're looking (intermittently) at inverted yield curves, which traditionally has been an ominous warning of impending recession.

    Sure, I'm glad to see noticeable gains in my investments NOW... but I tread very lightly, because what goes up, will inevitably go down.
    Folks this is how you spin the facts after you have been wrong for years.
    Good job Norm.
    "The only rules that really matter are these: what a man can do and what a man canít do." Captain Jack Sparrow

  35. #105
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Sharon, MA
    Posts
    22,822

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by genglandoh View Post
    Folks this is how you spin the facts after you have been wrong for years.
    Good job Norm.
    Wrong for years, you say?

    OK, fine. I'll get back to you when the next recession hits... so I can laugh at just how naive you could possibly be.

    Meanwhile, I'm waiting for you to show me, via graphs... GDP, employment, or any other statistic you can manage... just HOW the economy changed when Trump was elected. According to the orange leader, the economy was miserable while Obama was President, and Trump, all by himself (remember 'Only I can fix it'?) claims that he's responsible for this spectacular economy.

    Of course you believe this, right?

    Can you show us?
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •