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Thread: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

  1. #36
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    If he was half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd know how farmers can use soybean futures to hedge their crop prices. But he doesn't.
    The best statement I've seen from this latest carnage came from a student who lived through it -

    "My generation will not allow this to continue!"

    Remember voting age is 18. Read it and weep reds.

  2. #37
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Ross View Post
    It might have escaped your notice that farmers planted soybeans in spring 2018 before President Trump made his ill-advised and intemperate acts against China.

    Workers make their decision to go to work. Investors make their decisions to invest. So if President Trump does things to damage them, it’s their own faults? Of course not.
    Unfortunately, this can't be true because it doesn't fit with the economic moralism on display here. No, those that have prospered have done so through their excellent judgement and good looks, and those who are having difficulties are having them because they've chosen to fail and lack other virtues. End of line.

    It's the same thing Too Little Time always says.

  3. #38
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    Just curious, guys...

    Morbid, I know. But how DOES that brick wall feel against your foreheads?

    What inspires you to decide 'enough is enough'? Or has that ever happened...
    I'm a programmer. Therefore I have a lot of scar tissue built up on my forehead!
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

  4. #39
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    Oooohhhhh... THAT explains SO much!! <G>

    But seriously - I'm not sure your experience is as relevant as you might think. My understanding of programming is that it is responsive to rigorous logic???
    Ha! You made a funny.

    One would think so - but programming languages are written by humans and business "needs" are determined by humans. Need I say more?
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

  5. #40
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    I certainly said it. It is certainly true. Your comments seem to be poor inferences. But that is common around here.
    Well, given that "farming" is a means of manufacturing a good, in this case foodstuffs, the farmer has to sell that good wherever there is a reasonable price to be gained. Selling it offshore can do two things, one being that the farmer is able to stay in business, the other is that it brings in foreign currency with which to pay for goods and services that the country in which the farmer resides needs. All countries need to export, there is no country on this planet that can survive on just what it can produce from its own resources. I'm not talking about cheap plastic Walmart shelf stocking stuff here, I'm talking about everything from minerals to finished products, from services to rental on military bases, from out of season foodstuffs to cinnamon for your easter buns, it all has to be paid for and it gets paid for, in part by shiploads of soybeans and corn going the other way.

    John Welsford
    An expert is but a beginner with experience.

  6. #41
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    The only stock I own that was up today was MTCH. That’s match.com. They also own Tinder. In bad times people want to feel good I guess.
    Fight Entropy, build a wooden boat!

  7. #42
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Ross View Post
    It might have escaped your notice that farmers planted soybeans in spring 2018 before President Trump made his ill-advised and intemperate acts against China.

    Workers make their decision to go to work. Investors make their decisions to invest. So if President Trump does things to damage them, it’s their own faults? Of course not.
    I am sure that one day you will come to appreciate the fact that we all make decisions with imperfect knowledge of the future. Sometimes they work out. Sometimes they don't.

    A lot of people made great decisions prior to 2008 that turned out no so good during 2008. A lot of people took out student loans and are regretting it. Life is full of disappointment.

    Any soybean farmer who wished to could have protected his income by using options. Those who did not probably regret it.
    Life is complex.

  8. #43
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    I'm sorry. And will endeavor to be ever-so-gentle with you from this day forward. I had no idea the travails you have taken on. <G>
    You mean no more chainsaw surgery suggestions?

    I'm redoing a billing system - different customers get billed differently: daily, weekly, 4 week advance, 4 week arrears, and finally monthly - both advance & arrears. Then there are certain things billed where certain customers don't want to see all the details - so they get hidden (different things hidden for different customers) - but that means that if you add up the lines in the invoice, they don't add up to the total. Some customers want all their invoices for the billing period in one PDF, others want one PDF per invoice. Some invoices don't get printed if the customer hasn't sent in a PO - others get printed right away - even without a PO & if they require one. But! After 2 weeks, the invoice gets printed with a "You didn't supply us with a PO in a timely manner,, so we're billing you anyway" note.

    Shall I continue? There's plenty more just on that one project.
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

  9. #44
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by John of Phoenix View Post
    If he was half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd know how farmers can use soybean futures to hedge their crop prices. But he doesn't.
    I did not read your post until after I wrote post #46.
    Life is complex.

  10. #45
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by john welsford View Post
    Well, given that "farming" is a means of manufacturing a good, in this case foodstuffs, the farmer has to sell that good wherever there is a reasonable price to be gained. Selling it offshore can do two things, one being that the farmer is able to stay in business, the other is that it brings in foreign currency with which to pay for goods and services that the country in which the farmer resides needs. All countries need to export, there is no country on this planet that can survive on just what it can produce from its own resources. I'm not talking about cheap plastic Walmart shelf stocking stuff here, I'm talking about everything from minerals to finished products, from services to rental on military bases, from out of season foodstuffs to cinnamon for your easter buns, it all has to be paid for and it gets paid for, in part by shiploads of soybeans and corn going the other way.

    John Welsford
    I am all in favor of trade. You might read post #46.
    Life is complex.

  11. #46
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    I am sure that one day you will come to appreciate the fact that we all make decisions with imperfect knowledge of the future. Sometimes they work out. Sometimes they don't.

    A lot of people made great decisions prior to 2008 that turned out no so good during 2008. A lot of people took out student loans and are regretting it. Life is full of disappointment.

    Any soybean farmer who wished to could have protected his income by using options. Those who did not probably regret it.
    “...one day...”

    I guess you’re simply too smart for the rest of us. Perhaps we can stop with your comments that the U.S.’s reliance on exports is a bad idea as a testament to your superpowers.

  12. #47
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    I'm gonna cut the farmers some slack. No one could have predicted the level of stupidity we're seeing from bone spurs - NO ONE.
    The best statement I've seen from this latest carnage came from a student who lived through it -

    "My generation will not allow this to continue!"

    Remember voting age is 18. Read it and weep reds.

  13. #48
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Ross View Post
    “...one day...”

    I guess you’re simply too smart for the rest of us. Perhaps we can stop with your comments that the U.S.’s reliance on exports is a bad idea as a testament to your superpowers.
    If it's bad to rely on exports, it must be DEADLY to have any imports.

    Sweet Mother of God...
    The best statement I've seen from this latest carnage came from a student who lived through it -

    "My generation will not allow this to continue!"

    Remember voting age is 18. Read it and weep reds.

  14. #49
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Meanwhile:

    Politico: “The Dow Jones industrial average plunged more than 700 points, or 2.7 percent, in afternoon trading, after a flurry of belligerent tweets from President Trump — and quick retaliation from China in the form of new tariffs — threw gut punches at hopes for a deal between the two nations.”

    “The sell-off framed a central conflict inside the White House — and seemingly within the president’s own mind. Trump loves a booming stock market, which he tracks obsessively, and views it as an indicator of success on par with his approval rating. At the same time, he loves his power to unilaterally impose tariffs, and sees winning tough concessions from China as key to his 2020 reelection bid.”

    “But those two political imperatives are once again at odds.”
    I'm down, big time, today. Probably the biggest dollar loss I've seen in a VERY long while. Yeah, it's all just paper, but still.....
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







  15. #50
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Ross View Post
    “...one day...”

    I guess you’re simply too smart for the rest of us. Perhaps we can stop with your comments that the U.S.’s reliance on exports is a bad idea as a testament to your superpowers.
    Drawing invalid inferences is very common here.
    Life is complex.

  16. #51
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    Meanwhile:



    I'm down, big time, today. Probably the biggest dollar loss I've seen in a VERY long while. Yeah, it's all just paper, but still.....
    It’s not a loss until you sell...
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  17. #52
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by genglandoh View Post
    The market dropped last week because of the increase in tariffs on goods from China.
    The stock market just opened and has dropped about 450 points of 1.7% at about 25,500.

    I think this is just a short term reaction and the fundamentals are still good.
    So Geng'... did you put in a big buy order?

  18. #53
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by canoez View Post
    it’s not a loss until you sell for less than you paid ...
    ftfy

  19. #54
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    Just asking the question... to me, at least... tells me that you're interested in speculation, not investment.

    If you're a speculator, then you're looking to 'time the market'.... nothing wrong with that, as long as you understand the risks.

    If you're an investor, then you'd realize that the question was irrelevant. Investors look for long term performance and returns... so 'anytime' is a good time to invest.

    You MIGHT make an argument about the increasingly likely possibility of a recession.... since we are nearly 10 years into a bull market, and history demonstrates that there eventually WILL be a recession, or deep correction. That, however, only matters if 'long term', to you, means 5 years..... if 'long term', for you, is 25 years, then ANY time is a good time to invest.
    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post

    I'm down, big time, today. Probably the biggest dollar loss I've seen in a VERY long while. Yeah, it's all just paper, but still.....

    Interesting first you say that you should not worry about the small ups and down, then you complain that a 2% drop in the market is causing you to have a large dollar loss.
    "The only rules that really matter are these: what a man can do and what a man can’t do." Captain Jack Sparrow

  20. #55
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Et vous?
    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    Drawing invalid inferences is very common here.
    Xanthorrea

  21. #56
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    I agree that the American farmers are responsible for their poor decisions. After all, they largely voted for Donald Trump in 2016 despite the fact that he promised to do what he is doing today. "Thank you sir. May I have another?"
    "Trump's authoritarianism is a feature not a bug." -- Sky Blue






  22. #57
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    Drawing invalid inferences is very common here.
    Apparently so is the inability to defend one’s positions.

  23. #58
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by purri View Post
    Et vous?
    But they are my invalid inferences.
    Life is complex.

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Ross View Post
    Apparently so is the inability to defend one’s positions.
    I think most people do a reasonable job of defending their positions. Certainly they do what they think they need to do. That seems to include making invalid inferences.
    Life is complex.

  25. #60
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Farmers and the heartland voted for Trump. In fact his support there is only just starting to waiver. So, in a sense they really have only themselves to blame.

    I have a hard time ginning up support for anyone that voted for Trump thinking their income would go up because of tax cuts, or that their health care costs would go down or that their family farm would continue to prosper in the face of tariffs.

    Voting against ones self interest is a hallmark of the republican party. So yea, I have a hard time feeling sorry for anyone that cast their vote for Trump.
    Tom

    "Leave the gun, take the cannolis"

  26. #61
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    Being a large trading partner does not make one a good trading partner.

    But as I said farmers are responsible for their economic outcome. I understand you want to blame Trump, but that is a political thing. The farmers made their decision to grow soybeans. Not Trump.
    Such compassion for your fellow man. You must be a Christian.

    Ralphie

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ralphie Boy View Post
    Such compassion for your fellow man.
    I have a good deal of compassion for several groups of people.

    While soybean farmers are not one of those groups. Some soybean farmers most certainly fall into one of the groups I have compassion for.
    Life is complex.

  28. #63
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by S.V. Airlie View Post
    And what would you want them to plant TLT? I'd love to know! More corn to make ethanol. Yup, that's the ticket, more dairy, now there's an idea. What about pigs, we could sell more pork to China.? Oh wait, we already do!
    I have been driving for a couple days. I do my best thinking while I drive.

    When I was young I turned down the opportunity to farm several small plots of land - 3 acres, 40 acres, and 120 acres. The economics did not work out for me. Since then I have had neighbors and associates who have farmed. One of them even grew soybeans for a few years. Most of them changed crops as the markets changed. Typically from a 3 crop rotation, to a truck farm, to sod. to subdivision. I even knew one who had a wife with a hobby ranch. She lost 41 million/year and he did not care.

    I give farmers credit for knowing what they should grow to get the result they want. If you want me to give a farmer advice, you need to tell me a lot more about them than you have.
    Life is complex.

  29. #64
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    I used to farm a bit back in the '70's. It worked out to about $2k/lb.
    Trump makes no sense, most farmers can spot a crook or a con without a second glance.

  30. #65
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Canoeyawl View Post
    I used to farm a bit back in the '70's. It worked out to about $2k/lb.
    Trump makes no sense, most farmers can spot a crook or a con without a second glance.
    About the same price as I got back then.
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

  31. #66
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by genglandoh View Post
    Interesting first you say that you should not worry about the small ups and down, then you complain that a 2% drop in the market is causing you to have a large dollar loss.
    I wasn't complaining, merely observing... and my 'dollar loss' was simply the paper loss, which as has been pointed out, isn't 'real' if you're not selling.

    However, for long term investors, it has always been a 'two steps forward, one step back' kind of thing. Yes, we know that in the long run, the forward steps exceed the backward steps... but the backward steps slow the forward progress. We would ALL like to see our savings grow, at the fastest possible rate. When the cause of the backward steps are really stupid things.... like ridiculous tariffs... it is indeed frustrating.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







  32. #67
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    If you've been in for a while, it's a good time to get out.


    I've been cashing out for the last two years. Some positions had more than doubled my original investment (averaging more than 25% per year). The worst were up 40% (about 10% per year). Having done better than I expected, I don't need more exposure to the market. There are 3-year CDs at 3.15% pa. If I withdraw early, I lose the interest, but the principal's intact.

    I don't feel like the US is in competent hands right now. Who knows what sort of dumb stunt Mr. T will pull next?
    We're merely mammals. Let's misbehave! —Cole Porter

  33. #68
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip-skiff View Post
    I've been cashing out for the last two years. Some positions had more than doubled my original investment (averaging more than 25% per year). The worst were up 40% (about 10% per year).
    It certainly has been a spectacular run, for sure. The chart below isn't that recent, but does demonstrate a few key points:



    Quote Originally Posted by Chip-skiff View Post
    Having done better than I expected, I don't need more exposure to the market. There are 3-year CDs at 3.15% pa. If I withdraw early, I lose the interest, but the principal's intact.
    I don't disagree with anyone who thinks that this bull market cannot go on indefinitely... but I think you might be overstating the case.

    Consider the chart carefully... especially, the duration of the various bear markets (keeping in mind, the definition of 'bull' and 'bear' markets provided). The bear markets are short... VERY short... and with the exception of the Great Depression, they last less than 25 months... often, a lot less... and 2 years really isn't 'long term', at least, in my view.

    Here's the problem: it can be smart to anticipate a recession, and make moves to preserve capital... but sometimes, those moves can result in missed opportunities. I've done this myself.... started moving into cash nearly two years ago. The result: I've missed out on some of the substantial gains made in the last two years, while waiting for the sky to fall.

    Yes, it hurts, if your assets fall by 20% in value when a recession strikes.... but if those assets were 20% higher at the start of the recession, then the long term result is that you weren't hurt quite as bad.

    In the long term view, I might have been better off had I NOT moved so aggressively into cash and fixed assets. I'm not thinking about he next two years... I'm thinking more about the next 5 to 10 years.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip-skiff View Post
    I don't feel like the US is in competent hands right now. Who knows what sort of dumb stunt Mr. T will pull next?
    Yup.. who knows.

    However, I think that perspective gives the power and effect of a President far too much weight. Trump's ignorance and incompetence isn't in doubt, by anyone except those who drank his Kool-aid... but regardless, the market continues to rise, even with Trump in the Oval Office. We all probably gave Obama too much credit for the curent bull market, as well (although his actions in the face of the recession deserve plaudits, and probably contributed to preventing it from getting a lot worse).

    I have come to believe that the investment markets move far more independently of gov't policy, than most people believe... which is why we can be seeing record performance even with a buffoon like Trump as president.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







  34. #69
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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    I don't disagree with anyone who thinks that this bull market cannot go on indefinitely... but I think you might be overstating the case.
    Not sure I have a case. We have a conventional IRA that's managed by an investment firm, which is more than enough exposure for me.

    The brokerage account that I manage is much smaller. I intended for it to bridge the gap between early retirement and the onset of full benefits and regular distributions, which started this year. Not only did the brokerage account support us, but there's a considerable surplus, which is what I'm cashing out. It was an investment strategy that worked really well. We don't have kids and I'm not managing investments for an extended family. Nor have I ever been interested in making money in and of itself.

    Having grown up in Las Vegas and watched winners chase that little bit more (and become losers at the end of the night) I know enough to quit while I'm ahead.
    We're merely mammals. Let's misbehave! —Cole Porter

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    One might consider asset allocations according to a plan based on one's situation, not the market's. The individual might wish to review overall allocations every year and adjust accordingly although some unbalances (I'm heavily weighted in RE for example, a segment not so easily adjusted) are inevitable. There is no "good time" to get into the market if you're a small, private investor. Investing is a process, not a single moment in time.

    The question suggests the OP believes it is possible to time the market. It is not possible to time the market consistently. It has been in a range since November, 2017 and at the moment is at the top of that range. Is it a good time to get in? I guess as usual it depends on what one is invested in but if the question is "what's the market's direction from here," nobody knows. To my thinking there is nothing about this moment that suggests a break out to a new high in the indexes of any significance. My allocations in the stock market have steadily decreased as a percentage of my overall portfolio ever since I retired, but the actual stake I hold in publicly traded shares have remained pretty steady.

    If I had to guess, given the market is currently trading at the top of a two year range, I'd say it's a dangerous time to be adding more to the stakes I already have at risk, but I'm ever more pessimistic by the day. Just look around!
    One of the most enduring qualities of an old wooden boat is the smell it imparts to your clothing.

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