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Thread: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

  1. #1
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    Default Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    The market dropped last week because of the increase in tariffs on goods from China.
    The stock market just opened and has dropped about 450 points of 1.7% at about 25,500.

    I think this is just a short term reaction and the fundamentals are still good.
    "The only rules that really matter are these: what a man can do and what a man can’t do." Captain Jack Sparrow

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by genglandoh View Post
    The market dropped last week because of the increase in tariffs on goods from China.
    The stock market just opened and has dropped about 450 points of 1.7% at about 25,500.

    I think this is just a short term reaction and the fundamentals are still good.
    You know when was a really great time to get into the stock market? 2009.

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    You can make a case for and against.
    Right now, I'm against. But I need to be conservative at this stage. If I were younger, I wouldn't hesitate. Market goes up, market goes down.

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by genglandoh View Post
    The market dropped last week because of the increase in tariffs on goods from China.
    The stock market just opened and has dropped about 450 points of 1.7% at about 25,500.

    I think this is just a short term reaction and the fundamentals are still good.
    Just asking the question... to me, at least... tells me that you're interested in speculation, not investment.

    If you're a speculator, then you're looking to 'time the market'.... nothing wrong with that, as long as you understand the risks.

    If you're an investor, then you'd realize that the question was irrelevant. Investors look for long term performance and returns... so 'anytime' is a good time to invest.

    You MIGHT make an argument about the increasingly likely possibility of a recession.... since we are nearly 10 years into a bull market, and history demonstrates that there eventually WILL be a recession, or deep correction. That, however, only matters if 'long term', to you, means 5 years..... if 'long term', for you, is 25 years, then ANY time is a good time to invest.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    CONVENTIONAL WISDOM on Wall Street holds that market timing is a fool’s game. Trying to move your money in the market before it rallies and out before it declines, according to this view, requires a crystal ball that just hasn’t been invented. “The person who can tell you infallibly when we’re at the bottom or the top has not yet been born,” long-time market watcher Louis Rukeyser told his CNBC viewers Friday night.
    ...
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    Just asking the question... to me, at least... tells me that you're interested in speculation, not investment.
    You give him far too much credit to suggest that he’s interested in either. He’s not looking for insight, he’s making commentary.

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    The Dow is now down 530 points - I am not sure how anyone can reliably predict "the bottom" - your mileage may vary.

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by hawkeye54 View Post
    The Dow is now down 530 points - I am not sure how anyone can reliably predict "the bottom" - your mileage may vary.
    We can thank Donald Trump, whose 'trade war' is costing the US billions of dollars per month, is resulting in bankrupting farmers, and whose cost is born by ordinary Americans, NOT the Chinese.

    White House chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow undercut President Donald Trump’s claim that China will pay for tariffs imposed by the administration on goods entering the U.S., admitting that Americans will end up footing the bill.In an interview with Fox News’ Chris Wallace, Kudlow, who serves as the head of the National Economic Council, was pressed on the validity of the president’s assertion.

    “It’s not China that pays tariffs,” Wallace said. “It’s the American importers, the American companies that pay what in effect is a tax increase and oftentimes passes it on to U.S. consumers.”

    “Fair enough,” Kudlow conceded. “In fact, both sides will pay.”

    Doubling down on his fact check, Wallace again stressed that a tariff on goods entering the country wouldn’t be paid by the Chinese.

    “No, but the Chinese will suffer GDP losses and so forth with respect to a diminishing export market,” Kudlow acknowledged. He added that “to some extent,” American businesses and consumers would end up paying.

    “Again, both sides will suffer on this.”

    Kudlow’s remarks essentially threw cold water on Trump’s Twitter message last week in which he contended that “Tariffs are NOW being paid to the United States by China of 25% on 250 Billion Dollars worth of goods & products.”

    Though journalists have repeatedly corrected the president’s erroneous claims, explaining that tariffs don’t work that way, he has continued to perpetuate the myth in statement after statement.

    In reality, as Wallace noted, importers bear the brunt of tariffs, meaning American businesses relying on Chinese products will end up paying for fees the Trump administration imposes on those items. The added expenses typically hit everyday consumers.

    In March, a study compiled by economists from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Columbia University and Princeton University illustrated that point, finding that losses are “being born (sic) by the consumers of imports.”

    The Trump administration raised duties on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports from 10% to 25% last week as part of its escalating trade war with the manufacturing powerhouse.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by hawkeye54 View Post
    The Dow is now down 530 points - I am not sure how anyone can reliably predict "the bottom" - your mileage may vary.
    On the other hand the S&P500 was up 14.9% (close on Friday). Pretty good last 30 months. Pretty good last 30 years.

    There are a lot of people who profit from noise and a lot of people who take big losses because of noise.
    Life is complex.

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    We can thank Donald Trump, whose 'trade war' is costing the US billions of dollars per month, is resulting in bankrupting farmers, and whose cost is born by ordinary Americans, NOT the Chinese.
    The farmers caused their own problems by depending on trade with foreign countries.

    And international trade has cost the US millions of jobs over the last decades.
    Life is complex.

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    The farmers caused their own problems by depending on trade with foreign countries.

    And international trade has cost the US millions of jobs over the last decades.
    Did someone here really say that? I'm having trouble believing it. Good to learn that exports are bad & that supplying food to other countries is as well.

    Let's ban all imports & exports - we'll be much better off then.

    [in case anyone was not sure]

    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?
    Shirley you mean get back into the stock market?
    I'm waiting for the real buys, when Trump runs this economy into the dirt and we need a Democrat to put it right again.

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Garret View Post
    Did someone here really say that?

    Amazingly, yes. Best NOT to respond, for fear of getting banned.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Given where Trump's loyalties lie, I'd say it's likely a safer bet to get into the Russian market.

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    Amazingly, yes. Best NOT to respond, for fear of getting banned.
    Good point.

    I live in a state whose largest trading partner is not another state, but a Canadian province. Pretty much been that way since VT was a republic (aka before it became state # 14 in 1791). I guess we'll regret those 228+ years pretty soon.
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Garret View Post
    Did someone here really say that? I'm having trouble believing it. Good to learn that exports are bad & that supplying food to other countries is as well.

    Let's ban all imports & exports - we'll be much better off then.

    [in case anyone was not sure]

    It boggles the mind. America First thinking at its shallowest, unencumbered by actual facts.

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Ross View Post
    It boggles the mind. America First thinking at its shallowest, unencumbered by actual facts.
    Or - to steal the motto from Click & Clack (the Car Talk guys that used to be on NPR): non impediti ratione cogitation (unencumbered by the thought process)
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Garret View Post
    Did someone here really say that? I'm having trouble believing it. Good to learn that exports are bad & that supplying food to other countries is as well.
    I certainly said it. It is certainly true. Your comments seem to be poor inferences. But that is common around here.
    Life is complex.

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Garret View Post
    Did someone here really say that? I'm having trouble believing it. Good to learn that exports are bad & that supplying food to other countries is as well.

    Let's ban all imports & exports - we'll be much better off then.

    [in case anyone was not sure]

    Remarkable, isn't it.

    Sweet Mother of God reds are Stupid.
    The best statement I've seen from this latest carnage came from a student who lived through it -

    "My generation will not allow this to continue!"

    Remember voting age is 18. Read it and weep reds.

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    two scoops and larry "I snorted a house up my nose" kudlow are running the show and reds cheer them on and on over the cliff.

    We are so f'ed.

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    On a brighter note, this would never happen if we were in 2020, which is to say they'll fix it before then. They'll back off the tariffs, eat a ton of crow and lie about it daily for months on end.

    Regardless of their monumental stupidity now, they'll do anything, ANYTHING, going into the 2020 elections.

    In fact, this nonsense today could well be just a set up to stimulate the market then. What red will remember a 5% correction from a year ago?

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    On the other hand the S&P500 was up 14.9% (close on Friday). Pretty good last 30 months. Pretty good last 30 years.
    When slinging numbers (down 530 points, up 14.9%) could we specify the time period or baseline for comparison? Down 530 on the day, or up 14.9% since Jan. 1, 2019.

    Otherwise, the number has no meaning.

    Thanks.
    We're merely mammals. Let's misbehave! —Cole Porter

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Sorry, Chip (and other participants) - I was merely reporting a snapshot of the Dow - I don't usually have time to follow it....

  24. #24

    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Dow down 688 ATM.

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    I certainly said it. It is certainly true. Your comments seem to be poor inferences. But that is common around here.
    OK. You said "The farmers caused their own problems by depending on trade with foreign countries. " How can one take anything from that other than "exports are bad"? After all the definition of export includes dealing with other countries? Care to explain why they are & also how the farmers cause their own problems?
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Garret View Post
    OK. You said "The farmers caused their own problems by depending on trade with foreign countries. " How can one take anything from that other than "exports are bad"? After all the definition of export includes dealing with other countries? Care to explain why they are & also how the farmers cause their own problems?
    The farmers could have made a decision to grow crops for the domestic market.

    I am all for trade. But China is a poor trading partner. Much as Trump is a poor business partner.
    Life is complex.

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    The farmers could have made a decision to grow crops for the domestic market.

    I am all for trade. But China is a poor trading partner. Much as Trump is a poor business partner.
    This is a common theme in your economic comments: whatever ills people are suffering are directly attributable to their poor choices. This particular example seems like a good illustration of why that's a simplistic analysis - no doubt if the bottom were to fall out of the domestic market you'd comment on how US farmers chose not to expand their markets overseas.

    In this view, it's the farmers' fault that they didn't predict that Trump would be elected and impose tariffs that impact their overseas markets. It seems to me that if the farmers could have predicted that and planned for it they'd be wasting their talents working as farmers.

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    The farmers could have made a decision to grow crops for the domestic market.

    I am all for trade. But China is a poor trading partner. Much as Trump is a poor business partner.
    https://www.fca.gov/template-fca/dow...ortMarkets.pdf

    Ag exports in Billions for 2017:

    China 19.6
    Mexico 18.6
    Canada 20.5
    Other 79.7

    Total Ag Exports: 138.4

    So, China is less than 15% of the total. Soybeans are $10 billion of that - so one could argue that growing soybeans might not be the best choice - if one had a crystal ball to see that Trump would pull his tariff stunts - but all the rest?

    Next?
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip-skiff View Post
    When slinging numbers (down 530 points, up 14.9%) could we specify the time period or baseline for comparison? Down 530 on the day, or up 14.9% since Jan. 1, 2019.

    Otherwise, the number has no meaning.

    Thanks.
    Without context both numbers have meaning to anyone who is affected by the numbers. But it was an oversight on my part.
    Life is complex.

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Ag is a blockbuster export for the U.S., and has been since the mid-1800s.

    The U.S. was the exporting superpower in the post-war period. We knew where our bread was buttered. Far sighted bipartisan leadership led to the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs, which ushered in the free trade movement and led to an explosion in worldwide prosperity and reduction in poverty and malnutrition. The same bipartisan leadership created the Bretton Woods Agreement, which stabilized currencies and economies around the world (and by default, not design, established the dollar as the world’s reserve currency).

    Trumpco are the barbarians at the gate. They are plundering this hard-won legacy for quick immediate gains. They are eating our seed corn. In every instance where Trump is creating a temporary, ephemeral advantage for the U.S., it is because he is looting and melting down the gold of previous generations’ hard work. It’s sickening.

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Garret View Post
    https://www.fca.gov/template-fca/dow...ortMarkets.pdf

    Ag exports in Billions for 2017:

    China 19.6
    Mexico 18.6
    Canada 20.5
    Other 79.7

    Total Ag Exports: 138.4

    So, China is less than 15% of the total. Soybeans are $10 billion of that - so one could argue that growing soybeans might not be the best choice - if one had a crystal ball to see that Trump would pull his tariff stunts - but all the rest?

    Next?
    Being a large trading partner does not make one a good trading partner.

    But as I said farmers are responsible for their economic outcome. I understand you want to blame Trump, but that is a political thing. The farmers made their decision to grow soybeans. Not Trump.
    Life is complex.

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    I shoulda known better. I'll shut up now.

    I do want to know where one gets a crystal ball though.
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    Being a large trading partner does not make one a good trading partner.

    But as I said farmers are responsible for their economic outcome. I understand you want to blame Trump, but that is a political thing. The farmers made their decision to grow soybeans. Not Trump.
    It might have escaped your notice that farmers planted soybeans in spring 2018 before President Trump made his ill-advised and intemperate acts against China.

    Workers make their decision to go to work. Investors make their decisions to invest. So if President Trump does things to damage them, it’s their own faults? Of course not.

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    Being a large trading partner does not make one a good trading partner.

    But as I said farmers are responsible for their economic outcome. I understand you want to blame Trump, but that is a political thing. The farmers made their decision to grow soybeans. Not Trump.
    And what would you want them to plant TLT? I'd love to know! More corn to make ethanol. Yup, that's the ticket, more dairy, now there's an idea. What about pigs, we could sell more pork to China.? Oh wait, we already do!

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    Default Re: Do you think it is a good time to get into the Stock Market?

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Ross View Post
    So if President Trump does things to damage them, it’s their own faults? Of course not.
    As has been made clear, illogical thinking and general ignorance are clearly NOT limited to Donald Trump.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







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