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Thread: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

  1. #36
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    Quote Originally Posted by LeeG View Post
    Direct attack on US forces with a nuke would be suicidal, they aren’t suicidal.
    A dying man is very likely to spit in the eye of his murderer.

  2. #37
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    Quote Originally Posted by Corvida View Post
    A dying man is very likely to spit in the eye of his murderer.
    I think you’re validating the propaganda that Iran is an existential threat to the US.

  3. #38
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    Quote Originally Posted by LeeG View Post
    I think you’re validating the propaganda that Iran is an existential threat to the US.
    Not at all, they can be essentially ignored as they are now. Or we can start bombing them for Saudi Arabia, and risk setting off WW3 any time we want.

  4. #39
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    Here's most of what I know. I have a ship there now, and have had a meeting with my armed security people earlier today:

    Four ships attacked - two Saudis,a Norwegian and a bunker barge.

    Pipeline attack was the Houthis and not related.

    Limpet mines placed from a RIB deployed from a fast gunboat (known in the trade as a "boghammer").

    It's not the Houthis (too far away).

    It's not ISIS or Al-Qaeda (too well organised).

    It's not the Iranian Navy (they play by the book).

    It's the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, who have the equipment, the skills, the ability to organise and the motive - to make the USN extra jumpy before the carrier arrives in the Gulf in the hope that the USN does another "Vincennes".

    Note the disinformation spread by the Russians in co-operation with the Iranians..
    Last edited by Andrew Craig-Bennett; 05-14-2019 at 11:10 AM.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    But...but...but, Andrew, that doesn't follow the required script!
    Hope for the best, but plan for the worst.

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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    Andrew, why assume what militant jihadists can do is static and confined to what happened 500 miles inland? By their nature they have to evolve their tactics to thrive. 9/11 was organized enough to get US hawks to over react. Seems to me jihadists have more to gain than the IRGC in fomenting a US/Iran battle that screws with shipping. Sure Iran threatens to attack the Straights but that would cut off their income immediately. I don’t see the upside for them.

  7. #42
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    Some people here with short memories or cognitive dissocence. Who remebers Obamas "red line" comment about chemical weapons use, leading to them being used within days after......by US proxies.

  8. #43
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    What of the massively ineffective attacks themselves? It hardly looks like the work of someone bent on destruction.
    Nosce te ipsum

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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    Quote Originally Posted by skaraborgcraft View Post
    Some people here with short memories or cognitive dissocence. Who remebers Obamas "red line" comment about chemical weapons use, leading to them being used within days after......by US proxies.
    Ahhh, so a US proxy is planting mines, which one?

  10. #45
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    Quote Originally Posted by Old Dryfoot View Post
    What of the massively ineffective attacks themselves? It hardly looks like the work of someone bent on destruction.
    Effective enough to escalate military responses all around.

  11. #46
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    Quote Originally Posted by LeeG View Post
    Effective enough to escalate military responses all around.
    fair enough
    Nosce te ipsum

  12. #47
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    Quote Originally Posted by Art Haberland View Post
    believe it or not, Iran continues to abide by the agreement it made with the rest of the world under Obama's watch. We may have backed out of it, but by all accounts, they are staying with it. I do not believe they are the aggressor here, but somebody wants them to look like it.
    Yup - and a president with half a brain* woulda kept the agreement. If he had, Iran would be playing nicer with a whole lot of folks.



    * wish we had one of those
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    Quote Originally Posted by LeeG View Post
    Ahhh, so a US proxy is planting mines, which one?
    The proxy will come to light, just like the not approved for export US Missles found in ISIS caches. It just depends on whether US media, (owned by US defense contractors) wants to report it. And in this day and age, the "proxies" might be cashing regular US Treasury checks with benefits.
    "Song, song of the North
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    Quote Originally Posted by LeeG View Post
    Ahhh, so a US proxy is planting mines, which one?
    ex-Blackwater evil lizard, Erik Prince
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    Quote Originally Posted by Landrith View Post
    The proxy will come to light, just like the not approved for export US Missles found in ISIS caches. It just depends on whether US media, (owned by US defense contractors) wants to report it. And in this day and age, the "proxies" might be cashing regular US Treasury checks with benefits.
    That weapons make it from allies to other fighting forces does not necessarily make them proxies.

  16. #51
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    misc.

    https://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_...0storiesp.html

    https://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_...much-to-d.html

    The neocon imperialists present in both parties are riding high in the foreign policy apparatus of the United States. As part of their program of gaining a thinly disguised global hegemony they are steadily squeezing Iran into a smaller and smaller "box." The abandonment of JCPOA and the demand for a new agreement that would require Iran to abandon any effort to be a regional power is at the core of that effort. The insistence that Hizbullah, Hamas and the IRGC are terrorist groups that may not be maintained or supported is a direct challenge to Iranian sovereignty. As I have previously written, the terrorist designation of these groups makes them legal targets for military action under the US AUMF. Add to these things, the effort to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero and you may well have a situation in which the Iranians decide that they must hit back or accept that they are not the men they thought they were. - Pat Lang

  17. #52
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    Quote Originally Posted by LeeG View Post
    The neocon imperialists present in both parties are riding high in the foreign policy apparatus of the United States. As part of their program of gaining a thinly disguised global hegemony they are steadily squeezing Iran into a smaller and smaller "box." The abandonment of JCPOA and the demand for a new agreement that would require Iran to abandon any effort to be a regional power is at the core of that effort. The insistence that Hizbullah, Hamas and the IRGC are terrorist groups that may not be maintained or supported is a direct challenge to Iranian sovereignty. As I have previously written, the terrorist designation of these groups makes them legal targets for military action under the US AUMF. Add to these things, the effort to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero and you may well have a situation in which the Iranians decide that they must hit back or accept that they are not the men they thought they were. - Pat Lang
    I do find it dismaying the Dems aren't hitting hard about what is about to happen here. But I'm not surprised either.

    If something happens and we strike, I think it could be returned in kind with a cyber attack, something that is country is completely unprepared for. Turn the lights off in Phoenix in July and see what happens. Or wipe out some retirement accounts. Or just slow down internet speeds.

    Americans are not exactly the hardy type, unfortunately, as much as we pretend we are.

  18. #53
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    Quote Originally Posted by LeeG View Post
    That weapons make it from allies to other fighting forces does not necessarily make them proxies.
    I think it is far worse than this author has discovered "I traced missile casings in Syria back to their original sellers, so it’s time for the west to reveal who they sell arms to I don’t think either Nato or the EU has the slightest interest in chasing the provenance of weapons in the hands of Islamist fighters in Syria or anywhere else in the Middle East Robert Fisk 23 July 2018" https://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-a8459731.html. It first caught my attention when they had TOWs, even I could not get enough remedial training to keep up with the 11 Hotels at Ft. Benning's School for boys. Besides the anecdotal accounts of US flagged C-130's shipping them into Syria at various times, I knew it takes about 3 weeks intensive training before it is worth letting someone try to hit something with the very costly missiles. Then in the video footage, it was clear they were hitting targets farther than the Cold War era export spec TOWs could hit, so I realized they were getting full support from a US supply chain. At the time, you and other scoffed when I asserted that the US had merely "rebranded" Al Qaeda (also created by the USA) when there was a virtual mutiny in our services against providing them air transport from Iraq where they had been fighting US Infantry to Syria. I was reading this stuff: "S. Arabia, Qatar, UAE to Supply Advanced Western Missiles to Terrorists in Syria By Ian Greenhalgh - May 17, 2016" https://www.veteranstoday.com/2016/0...ists-in-syria/ , not listening to Megan Kelly. lol
    Last edited by Landrith; 05-14-2019 at 02:56 PM.
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  19. #54
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    Quote Originally Posted by Landrith View Post
    I think it is far worse than this author has discovered "I traced missile casings in Syria back to their original sellers, so it’s time for the west to reveal who they sell arms to I don’t think either Nato or the EU has the slightest interest in chasing the provenance of weapons in the hands of Islamist fighters in Syria or anywhere else in the Middle East Robert Fisk 23 July 2018" https://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-a8459731.html. It first caught my attention when they had TOWs, even I could not get enough remedial training to keep up with the 11 Hotels at Ft. Benning's School for boys. Besides the anecdotal accounts of US flagged C-130's shipping them into Syria at various times, I knew it takes about 3 weeks intensive training before it is worth letting someone try to hit something with the very costly missiles. Then in the video footage, it was clear they were hitting targets farther than the Cold War era export spec TOWs could hit, so I realized they were getting full support from a US supply chain. At the time, you and other scoffed when I asserted that the US had merely "rebranded" Al Qaeda (also created by the USA) when there was a virtual mutiny in our services against providing them air transport from Iraq where they had been fighting US Infantry to Syria. I was reading this stuff: "S. Arabia, Qatar, UAE to Supply Advanced Western Missiles to Terrorists in Syria By Ian Greenhalgh - May 17, 2016" https://www.veteranstoday.com/2016/0...ists-in-syria/ , not listening to Megan Kelly. lol

    I don’t dispute any of that. It’s clear to me that Al Qaeda, ISIS and other related militias have been supported at some time by individuals in and out of gov’t in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other countries shortly after the invasion of Iraq as we overturned the Sunni leadership in Iraq. We did the same employing the precursors to Al Qaeda in Afghanistan against Russia thirty years ago. All of that still isn’t an argument for US employing a proxy force targeting ships in Straits of Hormuz.

  20. #55
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    I am far more cynical about the value of the US Dollar than you are LeeG. While I have high confidence in Andrew Craig-Bennett having the latest official word from sources at the location, I being Alt Right and prone to interest in conspiracies that Andrew Craig-Bennett would quickly stamp out (despite Andrew's authoritative rebuke of any basis for belief that the Titanic might not have been the vessel sunk by an iceberg, the event has even grown more the subject of anti-central bank conspiracy since Andrew's reply), the current shipping news Andrew has kindly shared with us sounds exactly like a worn out ruse the Deep State has used repeatedly before. I still cannot forgive the US Navy for the fraud perpetrated on my party, the GOP by pulling some action video of SEALS in fast moving speed boats buzzing US ships in these waters and releasing them as a FAKE NEWS event where "Iranian Guards" were threatening our fleet the weekend before the New Hampshire primary to pull John McCain's presidential campaign from the garbage can. Maybe those same liers are giving briefs today that there is a reason to believe the perps over this weekend were "Iranian Revolutionary Guards". Just like then, I can't help but believe the Deep State needs and intends that the attacks be attributed to Iran. Just like they needed the bailout for banks then, the US Dollar is in trouble. It is tied to control of oil to retain what is left of its significantly reduced buying power.
    Last edited by Landrith; 05-14-2019 at 08:18 PM.
    "Song, song of the North
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    Truth is marching on
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  21. #56
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    Quote Originally Posted by Landrith View Post
    I am far more cynical about the value of the US Dollar than you are LeeG. While I have high confidence in Andrew Craig-Bennett having the latest official word from sources at the location, I being Alt Right and prone to interest in conspiracies that Andrew Craig-Bennett would quickly stamp out (despite Andrew's authoritative rebuke of any basis for belief that the Titanic might not have been the vessel sunk by an iceberg, the event has even grown more the subject of anti-central bank conspiracy since Andrew's reply), the current shipping news Andrew has kindly shared with us sounds exactly like a worn out ruse the Deep State has used repeatedly before. I still cannot forgive the US Navy for the fraud perpetrated on my party, the GOP by pulling some action video of SEALS in fast moving speed boats buzzing US ships in these waters and releasing them as a FAKE NEWS event where "Iranian Guards" were threatening our fleet the weekend before the New Hampshire primary to pull John McCain's presidential campaign from the garbage can. Maybe those same liers are giving briefs today that there is a reason to believe are "Iranian Revolutionary Guards". Just like then, I can't help but believe the Deep State needs and intends that the attacks be attributed to Iran. Just like they needed the bailout for banks then, the US Dollar is in trouble. It is tied to control of oil to retain what is left of its significantly reduced buying power.
    I don't mean to cause thread drift, but what was that about the Titanic not being the vessel sunk by an iceberg? Is that a theory?

    Is it somehow an analogy to the current tanker attacks?

  22. #57
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    Quote Originally Posted by pandelume View Post
    I don't mean to cause thread drift, but what was that about the Titanic not being the vessel sunk by an iceberg? Is that a theory?

    Is it somehow an analogy to the current tanker attacks?
    I brought that up in another thread some time ago. Here it is me acknowledging I know nothing about political risk in shipping and of course defer to Andrew Craig-Bennett who really does. And in the past thread, he was familiar with the Olympic switch conspiracy theory. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mpLRCqQ620. Its remote relevance to this thread is me getting called out here for ascribing Iran war saber rattling to the "Deep State" and not our president as some of our left-leaning bilgemates would prefer. Many Trump supporters see the president as fighting a real civil war with a permanent bureaucratic dictatorship that attempted to remove him by coup de' tat. One of the most influential "persons" leading this view, at least according to Time Magazine is "Q" or " Q-Anon". Which by coincidence did a lot to revive the genral anti-globalist and central bank conspiracy that the dissenters against the formation of the Federal Reserve were done in by arranging for them to be on the Titanic when it sank. For Gold bug doom and gloomers, preppers, Paleo-Conservatives, and pretty much everybody else on the fringe right, we see 2019 as the end times of the central bank's ability to exert some control over the economy. We talk about bond sales falling and stuff like that. So in a "who benefits" from destabilizing the flow of oil from Iran, the USA which reportedly had tactical aircraft in the area is on the short list.
    Last edited by Landrith; 05-14-2019 at 08:16 PM.
    "Song, song of the North
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    Truth is marching on
    Factories all closed, holes in the border fence
    We applied for the jobs but never got a chance
    Father was a John Bircher and a Republican
    Get a college professor to vote like that"

  23. #58
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    If you've got kids in their late teens or 20s, encourage them to emigrate. They can come home sometime, but if this goes the whole way there is going to be money made by investing in companies that make body bags.
    Iran would be a much tougher nut than Afghanistan, and thats been 17 years and losing ground.

    John Welsford
    An expert is but a beginner with experience.

  24. #59
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    Quote Originally Posted by john welsford View Post
    If you've got kids in their late teens or 20s, encourage them to emigrate. They can come home sometime, but if this goes the whole way there is going to be money made by investing in companies that make body bags.
    Iran would be a much tougher nut than Afghanistan, and thats been 17 years and losing ground.

    John Welsford
    John, I think that way a lot. I remember how much the British were surprised by Argentina's homegrown tech and mild resolve. Any readers of Jane's Defense publications over the years has got to realize that Iran has a hundred times the technical innovation and may have been the originator of some of the latest electronic warfare technology, and probably has nearly a million man military service with maximum resolve...
    "Song, song of the North
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    Truth is marching on
    Factories all closed, holes in the border fence
    We applied for the jobs but never got a chance
    Father was a John Bircher and a Republican
    Get a college professor to vote like that"

  25. #60
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    I doubt donald knows that Landrith, or want's to know, or cares. And he certainly does not care about lives lost or ruined on either side, only his own survival. But then again neither have the Presidents in the chair when earlier OS adventurism for personal and supporting interests gain.

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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.


  27. #62
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    ^ ASFAK, whatsapp is not standard software on any smartphones. So, like many other Apps, if you are concerned with privacy, dont download them.

    Beeb reporting this morning evacuation of its US embassy in Kabul, due to unspecified "Iranian" threat.

  28. #63
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    Quote Originally Posted by LeeG View Post
    Andrew, why assume what militant jihadists can do is static and confined to what happened 500 miles inland? By their nature they have to evolve their tactics to thrive. 9/11 was organized enough to get US hawks to over react. Seems to me jihadists have more to gain than the IRGC in fomenting a US/Iran battle that screws with shipping. Sure Iran threatens to attack the Straights but that would cut off their income immediately. I don’t see the upside for them.
    Lee - I was reporting an intelligence briefing; the view is that

    (1) the various jihadis have not shown that level of organisation or competence in their various attacks on merchant shipping
    (2) the IRRG have a motive - to make the USN carrier group overly jumpy, so they shoot first and achieve something like the USS Vincennes shooting down the Airbus
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  29. #64
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett View Post
    Lee - I was reporting an intelligence briefing; the view is that

    (1) the various jihadis have not shown that level of organisation or competence in their various attacks on merchant shipping
    (2) the IRRG have a motive - to make the USN carrier group overly jumpy, so they shoot first and achieve something like the USS Vincennes shooting down the Airbus
    thx, there must be a lot of eyes looking down on the Gulf right now.

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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    Quote Originally Posted by LeeG View Post
    Tho I generally agree with the premise, as noted, whatsapp is voluntary - fb ap is preinstalled - and usually not removable or even disable-able.. and definitely untrustable.

  31. #66
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    What truly bothers me is we cannot trust anything our government tells us on this subject.
    How do we form a mutiny? Our new captain is navigating poorly.

  32. #67
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    Quote Originally Posted by John Smith View Post
    What truly bothers me is we cannot trust anything our government tells us on this subject.
    Which is why the free press is so important and Trump is so destructive for our republic. You get news and analysis from news organizations who cover these topics and other expertise not the gov’t. How could you ever take what is initially given as trustworthy after Vietnam and other wars since is mystifying.

    Trump is unique though in that you can’t trust anything he says reflecting ground reality but the real pisser is that neither can his staff and cabinet. This is Trumps real accomplishment, undermining gov’t across the board.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...sident/589489/

    Ignoring Trump’s Orders, Hoping He’ll Forget
    Slow-walking or flat-out disobeying Trump’s fleeting obsessions has become common practice across various sectors of government.
    Last edited by LeeG; 05-15-2019 at 11:45 AM.

  33. #68
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    Quote Originally Posted by Landrith View Post
    I brought that up in another thread some time ago. Here it is me acknowledging I know nothing about political risk in shipping and of course defer to Andrew Craig-Bennett who really does. And in the past thread, he was familiar with the Olympic switch conspiracy theory. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mpLRCqQ620. Its remote relevance to this thread is me getting called out here for ascribing Iran war saber rattling to the "Deep State" and not our president as some of our left-leaning bilgemates would prefer. Many Trump supporters see the president as fighting a real civil war with a permanent bureaucratic dictatorship that attempted to remove him by coup de' tat. One of the most influential "persons" leading this view, at least according to Time Magazine is "Q" or " Q-Anon". Which by coincidence did a lot to revive the genral anti-globalist and central bank conspiracy that the dissenters against the formation of the Federal Reserve were done in by arranging for them to be on the Titanic when it sank. For Gold bug doom and gloomers, preppers, Paleo-Conservatives, and pretty much everybody else on the fringe right, we see 2019 as the end times of the central bank's ability to exert some control over the economy. We talk about bond sales falling and stuff like that. So in a "who benefits" from destabilizing the flow of oil from Iran, the USA which reportedly had tactical aircraft in the area is on the short list.
    Thanks for the explanation. It's an interesting theory.

  34. #69
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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    Marco Rubio says ... anyone who attacks with “links” to Iran will start a war. Hey, remember how that worked with the Bush-Wolfowitz Doctrine?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/marcorubi...19127755689985


    Marco Rubio
    @marcorubio
    There isn’t going to be an accidental U.S.-#Iran war

    U.S won’t start a war with #Iran, but it will win one that Iran starts

    Bottom line is this, if #IRGC calls off proxy attacks there will be no war,but if they move forward,Iran will pay a heavy price

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    Default Re: Two oil tankers attacked off UAE.

    with all the money in that area, if they are so afraid of the Iranians closing off the strait, why didn't somebody propose a canal across the UAE?
    "If you think you are too small to make a difference, try sleeping with a mosquito"

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