Results 1 to 30 of 30

Thread: Stocks

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    United States of Stupid
    Posts
    11,028

    Default Stocks

    Here's where I'm starting. Thoughts?

    IBM ---> Blockchain
    Canopy Growth Corp (CGC) --->Pot
    Aurora Cannabis (ACB) --->Pot again.
    In the US this perverted idea of “blood and soil” over “constitutional principles” is the most radical and anti-democratic and anti-Conservative idea I have heard in my lifetime.

    ~C. Ross

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    Isle of Mull, Scotland
    Posts
    4,208

    Default Re: Stocks

    Gone to pot already!

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    United States of Stupid
    Posts
    11,028

    Default Re: Stocks

    Quote Originally Posted by birlinn View Post
    Gone to pot already!
    Yes.
    In the US this perverted idea of “blood and soil” over “constitutional principles” is the most radical and anti-democratic and anti-Conservative idea I have heard in my lifetime.

    ~C. Ross

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Oct 2017
    Location
    Vancouver Canada
    Posts
    335

    Default Re: Stocks

    The multiples on many of the pot stocks are just plain wacky. I would be very cautious. There are companies in it for the long term but many are applying a lot of lipstick in hopes of a quick buyout. You might ask Peb what he thinks. His comments suggest he’s a savvy investor.
    Paul

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Location
    St. Simon\'s Island, GA, USA
    Posts
    5,510

    Default Re: Stocks

    Pot stock? Pot-a-feu? (Sorry my French isn't good.)

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    United States of Stupid
    Posts
    11,028

    Default Re: Stocks

    Quote Originally Posted by Puttputt View Post
    The multiples on many of the pot stocks are just plain wacky. I would be very cautious. There are companies in it for the long term but many are applying a lot of lipstick in hopes of a quick buyout. You might ask Peb what he thinks. His comments suggest he’s a savvy investor.
    Paul
    So, the two I selected are companies that actually grow product and sell it. They're not solely rooted in discovering the next big strain. These are big growers, international, as established as these companies get. Poised for huge growth to meet the inevitable demand of legalization.
    In the US this perverted idea of “blood and soil” over “constitutional principles” is the most radical and anti-democratic and anti-Conservative idea I have heard in my lifetime.

    ~C. Ross

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    10,391

    Default

    Canibis stocks are an investing fad. Which means if your a good trader, you might make money, otherwise you will lose. Think Bitcoin, Tesla, etc.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnb...ake-money.html

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    United States of Stupid
    Posts
    11,028

    Default Re: Stocks

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Canibis stocks are an investing fad. Which means if your a good trader, you might make money, otherwise you will lose. Think Bitcoin, Tesla, etc.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnb...ake-money.html
    I disagree. Nobody knew what Bitcoin really was. Tesla requires a market that is still a few years away, I still think Tesla will rock it, just not yet. Ganga already has a strong market, the product is proven, the market is opening up for return customers who grew up and lost their contact. Respectfully, I think you're wrong. Just listen to the buzz here.
    In the US this perverted idea of “blood and soil” over “constitutional principles” is the most radical and anti-democratic and anti-Conservative idea I have heard in my lifetime.

    ~C. Ross

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Oct 2017
    Location
    Vancouver Canada
    Posts
    335

    Default Re: Stocks

    I get it. Canopy just got a Four billion dollar infusion from constellation brands and the stock had a big bump up because of that. Just a couple of points. 1) there remains a huge black market here and while it will diminish i don’t see it going away completely. Most folks I know are continuing to buy the old fashioned way. 2) if you’re thinking of long term investing I might want to wait for a few more quarterly returns just to make sure the initial enthusiasm was more than a spike.
    that said, smoke em if you’ve got em.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    United States of Stupid
    Posts
    11,028

    Default Re: Stocks

    Quote Originally Posted by Puttputt View Post
    I get it. Canopy just got a Four billion dollar infusion from constellation brands and the stock had a big bump up because of that. Just a couple of points. 1) there remains a huge black market here and while it will diminish i don’t see it going away completely. Most folks I know are continuing to buy the old fashioned way. 2) if you’re thinking of long term investing I might want to wait for a few more quarterly returns just to make sure the initial enthusiasm was more than a spike.
    that said, smoke em if you’ve got em.
    When these lagit growers can produce an equal or better product, consistent product, at a lower cost, economy of scale, they will totally beat the black market folks. Just like Walmart killed mom and pop's.
    In the US this perverted idea of “blood and soil” over “constitutional principles” is the most radical and anti-democratic and anti-Conservative idea I have heard in my lifetime.

    ~C. Ross

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Location
    Reedville, OR
    Posts
    9,885

    Default Re: Stocks

    I am no investor, but from what I see, I wouldn't bet a penny on any pot growing outfit.

    It's a weed. An agricultural product, essentially. What makes it faddish is that everyone has dollar signs in their eyes, and nobody really knows what the price will be a year from now. The bottom has already fallen out for a lot of producers here in Oregon.

    There's going to be a lot of pain in the next few years or people who get invested in the business.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    United States of Stupid
    Posts
    11,028

    Default Re: Stocks

    At $4.36 billion (CGC) and $3.47 billion (ACB), these are not small family operations. There's a big difference between the relativity small "rebel" growers who are trying to go lagit but don't know the first thing about running a lagit business and multi billion dollar corporations. Prices are dropping for the black market stink, making the risk of a tax evasion charge not so worthy. The market is widening, hell, I might even take up the reefer now that I can get a script. You may be right about the timing, that part I'm considering, just not as bullish or skeptical as you.
    In the US this perverted idea of “blood and soil” over “constitutional principles” is the most radical and anti-democratic and anti-Conservative idea I have heard in my lifetime.

    ~C. Ross

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    10,391

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by McMike View Post
    I disagree. Nobody knew what Bitcoin really was. Tesla requires a market that is still a few years away, I still think Tesla will rock it, just not yet. Ganga already has a strong market, the product is proven, the market is opening up for return customers who grew up and lost their contact. Respectfully, I think you're wrong. Just listen to the buzz here.
    Good industries and even good companies do not equate to good stocks. Especially with a new growth industry the first requirement is a secure economic most. If you do not clearly understand the barriers to entry that protects a company's business, then do not invest in that company. This has the unfortunate result that it can be hard to find good investments in promising industries.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Location
    Kitty Hawk, NC
    Posts
    7,528

    Default Re: Stocks

    Quote Originally Posted by McMike View Post
    Here's where I'm starting. Thoughts?

    IBM ---> Blockchain
    Canopy Growth Corp (CGC) --->Pot
    Aurora Cannabis (ACB) --->Pot again.
    Quote Originally Posted by McMike View Post
    So, the two I selected are companies that actually grow product and sell it. They're not solely rooted in discovering the next big strain. These are big growers, international, as established as these companies get. Poised for huge growth to meet the inevitable demand of legalization.
    You seem to have made a decision. Buy the stuff.
    Life is complex.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Location
    Reedville, OR
    Posts
    9,885

    Default Re: Stocks

    What is innovation going to look like?

    The "product" is already too strong for most users to partake in the traditional sense. How much of the stuff does even a dedicated, daily user really need? A handful of the stuff a month? How much is a handful of alfalfa worth?

    The innovation is going to be in production and extraction. At some point in the not too distant future, THC is going to be a chemical additive, like vanilla, or high fructose corn syrup.

    And the value can only go down as production and extraction becomes more efficient.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Location
    Reedville, OR
    Posts
    9,885

    Default Re: Stocks

    One irony I predict; some time soon, you're going to hear rumblings from commercial pot growers for a rededication to the war on drugs.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    10,391

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by McMike View Post
    At $4.36 billion (CGC) and $3.47 billion (ACB), these are not small family operations. There's a big difference between the relativity small "rebel" growers who are trying to go lagit but don't know the first thing about running a lagit business and multi billion dollar corporations. Prices are dropping for the black market stink, making the risk of a tax evasion charge not so worthy. The market is widening, hell, I might even take up the reefer now that I can get a script. You may be right about the timing, that part I'm considering, just not as bullish or skeptical as you.
    CGC has under 100M in annual revenue, assuming your number is market cap, that gives them a P/S ratio of over 46. They have SG&A expenses greater than their revenue. Tread carefully....

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    10,391

    Default

    Sorry, their market cap is 13B, and a tual P/S is around 180. They may never be profitable. They do have a strong balance sheet.

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    United States of Stupid
    Posts
    11,028

    Default Re: Stocks

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Sorry, their market cap is 13B, and a tual P/S is around 180. They may never be profitable. They do have a strong balance sheet.
    Have you read the denizens here cackling about their dank habits? It's going to be big, uge. But, because I trust your input, you've now made me skittish.
    In the US this perverted idea of “blood and soil” over “constitutional principles” is the most radical and anti-democratic and anti-Conservative idea I have heard in my lifetime.

    ~C. Ross

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    United States of Stupid
    Posts
    11,028

    Default Re: Stocks

    Quote Originally Posted by L.W. Baxter View Post
    One irony I predict; some time soon, you're going to hear rumblings from commercial pot growers for a rededication to the war on drugs.
    Yup.
    In the US this perverted idea of “blood and soil” over “constitutional principles” is the most radical and anti-democratic and anti-Conservative idea I have heard in my lifetime.

    ~C. Ross

  21. #21
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    S.W. Florida
    Posts
    4,781

    Default Re: Stocks

    Quote Originally Posted by L.W. Baxter View Post
    One irony I predict; some time soon, you're going to hear rumblings from commercial pot growers for a rededication to the war on drugs.
    In the 1948 movie “Key Largo”, starring Humphrey Bogart, Lauren Bacall and Edward G. Robinson, and one of the phrases in the movie got me thinking. Rocco (Robinson’s character), terrified by the hurricane, commands one of his gangsters to start talking, to say anything.

    The gangster, Curly, starts talking about the prohibition. Here’s what he says:

    “I bet you 2, 3 years, we get prohibition back. This time we make it stick. Bet you 2, 3 years prohibition comes back. Absolutely, yeah… The trouble was — see, before — too many guys wanted to be top dog. One mob gets to massacring another, the papers play it up big, see, so what happens… naturally, the papers play it up big, and the public get the idea prohibition’s no good, and if they can get rid of it, prohibition, I mean…”

    [here we get a separate scene of Rocco being completely terrified by the power of the hurricane, then the talk turns to prohibition once more, continuing the previous line]

    “… so the public votes out prohibition, that’s the end of the mobs. Next time it’ll be different, though. We learned our lesson, alright. Next time the mobs’ll get together.”

    Hope the voyage is a long one.
    May there be many a summer morning when,
    with what pleasure, what joy,
    you come into harbors seen for the first time...

    Ithaka, by Cavafy
    (Keeley - Sherrard translation)

  22. #22
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Location
    Reedville, OR
    Posts
    9,885

    Default Re: Stocks

    Quote Originally Posted by sharpiefan View Post
    ... Next time the mobs’ll get together.”
    Things that make you go hmmmm.

    Anheuser-Busch InBev is invested in Canopy Growth. The concessions are already divvied up....

  23. #23
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Location
    Sitka, AK
    Posts
    26,332

    Default Re: Stocks

    Interesting new market, and it's legit to check it out.

    I did see this article headline in our local paper...

    Alaska marijuana revenue falls in November


    https://www.newsobserver.com/news/bu...223994585.html

    (I linked to the Anchorage newspaper)

    I didn't read it at the time, because pot isn't my thing, but this thread had me revisit it. No telling if it's a trend, or maybe people don't buy weed before Christmas? Alaska is a 'legal for recreational use' state.
    "Simple minds discuss people, Average minds discuss things, and Great minds discuss ideas".

  24. #24
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    United States of Stupid
    Posts
    11,028

    Default Re: Stocks

    A lul in the party? Too much of a good thing?
    In the US this perverted idea of “blood and soil” over “constitutional principles” is the most radical and anti-democratic and anti-Conservative idea I have heard in my lifetime.

    ~C. Ross

  25. #25
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Location
    Reedville, OR
    Posts
    9,885

    Default Re: Stocks

    18 months ago, I did some framing work inside a large warehouse in Milwaukie (Portland) for a marijuana growing outfit.

    Offices, and catwalks that would overlook indoor growing beds.

    Big investment, done, in my observation, very casually.

    Read the interview here.

    To quote the article, "Buel expressed concern about market oversaturation but said the problem would likely resolve itself in a couple of years".

    Resolve itself? Resolve itself?

    And he goes on to claim he never smokes the stuff?

  26. #26
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    Western Washington
    Posts
    2,865

    Default Re: Stocks

    Quote Originally Posted by McMike View Post
    Here's where I'm starting. Thoughts?

    IBM ---> Blockchain
    Canopy Growth Corp (CGC) --->Pot
    Aurora Cannabis (ACB) --->Pot again.
    What rate of return do you want and over what period of time?

  27. #27
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Sydney OZ.
    Posts
    13,068

    Default Re: Stocks

    Buy non hydro!
    Xanthorrea

  28. #28
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Frankfort, MI
    Posts
    7,245

    Default Re: Stocks

    ACB is up quite a bit over the last few days, and it's been yo-yoing up and down since October. It starts looking attractive at around $4.80-$5.15 a share, which is where it was before this latest surge.

    Jeff C

  29. #29
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Sharon, MA
    Posts
    21,254

    Default Re: Stocks

    There's not a thing wrong with speculating on high-flying stocks, whose profits and revenues may be non-existent, but for whom, expectations are high....

    Of course, this presumes that the 'speculator' is fully cognizant of the fact that he/she could lose every single penny... or slightly less worse, suffer a significant loss.

    Naturally, there will be some winners. Whether those winners achieved their success by their own brilliant ability to predict the movement of the stock, is a VERY questionable proposition. In that sense, it's really not much different than gambling in Las Vegas; statistically, most people will lose a little, but there WILL be a few winners.... and every player either expects, or at least, hopes, that they will be in the winning group.

    It's not investing, though. Real investors do NOT expect phenomenal payoffs.... instead, they hope that their investments, over a long term period, will grow at a good rate. What a 'good rate' is, depends on the investor. Personally, my hopes are limited to doing almost as well as the S&P 500 over the long haul, but with somewhat lower risk than the S&P 500 overall risk.

    Consequently, I don't invest in Alphabet, Tesla, Apple, or similar companies. Some of these are highly profitable, but they're all way too volatile for my risk tolerance. Tesla, in particular, has burned through $4.8 BILLION worth of investor's capital, and still isn't making a profit... they undoubtedly will... eventually... but for now, the stock is 100% expectation, and 0% performance.

    My own feeling: people will ALWAYS need toilet paper, laundry soap, razor blades, and tens of thousands of other 'dull' commodities, to survive in this world... and the companies who make these products are profitable and steady, and their stocks are less volatile.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







  30. #30
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    Western Washington
    Posts
    2,865

    Default Re: Stocks

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post

    Real investors do NOT expect phenomenal payoffs.... instead, they hope that their investments, over a long term period, will grow at a good rate. What a 'good rate' is, depends on the investor. Personally, my hopes are limited to doing almost as well as the S&P 500 over the long haul, but with somewhat lower risk than the S&P 500 overall risk.

    Consequently, I don't invest in Alphabet, Tesla, Apple, or similar companies. Some of these are highly profitable, but they're all way too volatile for my risk tolerance. Tesla, in particular, has burned through $4.8 BILLION worth of investor's capital, and still isn't making a profit... they undoubtedly will... eventually... but for now, the stock is 100% expectation, and 0% performance.
    I have to agree with you completely Norman, that's why I asked in a post above: "What rate of return do you want and over what period of time?"

    If you don't specify some realistic numbers you wind up with unrealistic expectations like "Maybe I'll double my money in a year or less." It's hard to double your money in a year, but really easy to lose most of it in a year.

    I look at last December's volatility and ask myself how can I possibly compete in such an arena? I can't, and this same volatility has occurred a number of times in my lifetime. My brother does well trading, but I don't have the interest, insight, skill, or luck to pull it off. I buy and hold, even though I know that's no way to absolutely maximize return.

    The average guy will have to put in a great deal of work and carry plenty of risk to beat reasonable buy and hold strategies. He needs somewhere to park his money with a bit more return than insured CD's, with just a little more risk. I've listed annual total returns for a buy and hold investment strategy below, over 17 years. There are a couple of negative years, but also some decent ones. It's the kinda thing you can truly get into once and forget, no further input is required. Of course you should follow it well before you decide to take some money out, because ther's no point in withdrawing in down years.

    Not for everyone, but if you want slow and steady it's a reasonable choice.





    Annual Total Return (%) History

    Year

    2018

    -2.49%

    2017

    10.26%

    2016

    8.16%

    2015

    1.35%

    2014

    8.15%

    2013

    9.27%

    2012

    10.10%

    2011

    9.74%

    2010

    10.71%

    2009

    16.14%

    2008

    -9.79%

    2007

    5.76%

    2006

    11.39%

    2005

    3.56%

    2004

    7.70%

    2003

    9.78%

    2002

    4.72%

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •