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Thread: Inverted yield curve

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    Default Inverted yield curve

    I heard on the radio today that an inverted yield curve has been present before the last 9 recessions.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.for...rry-today/amp/

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    Default

    It is, historically, the best predictor of recessions. We all pay attention to the stock market, but bond traders have to really pay attention to this stuff. Yes we should be worried. Employment might be weakening, housing looks like it is slowing down, car sales are not doing as well. And let's not forget a trade war is brewing. Not just with China. The new NAFTA agreement might be in trouble in the new congress. Which is not a surprise.

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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    Heard it on NPR. The market hates volatility - Though it might be a good time to pick up some bargens. I might pick up some more Square Inc.
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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    From the link:
    Note that the spread gave five good signals of recession, plus a couple of other indications that turned out not to be recessions. Also note that weve only had five recessions in the past 40 years, so were looking at a pretty small sample.
    I think there is a lot of time - almost 2 years, between an inversion and the start of a recession. And sometimes the recession does not happen.

    I guess one could do something. And I will stay invested as I am, and I will keep spending as I have. Seems a reasonable way to handle the situation.
    Life is complex.

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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    Quote Originally Posted by Joe (SoCal) View Post
    Heard it on NPR. The market hates volatility - Though it might be a good time to pick up some bargens. I might pick up some more Square Inc.
    You don't think there's the slightest chance that Trump is injecting volatility on purpose and having others trade on the info, do you? I mean claiming an agreement with China (market predictably goes up) then showing/admitting/leaking that it's all vapor (market predictably goes down), is a fast way to make a lot of money.
    When you can take the pebble from my hand, it will be time for you to leave.

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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob (oh, THAT Bob) View Post
    You don't think there's the slightest chance that Trump is injecting volatility on purpose and having others trade on the info, do you? I mean claiming an agreement with China (market predictably goes up) then showing/admitting/leaking that it's all vapor (market predictably goes down), is a fast way to make a lot of money.
    Dunno. Very possible, even if true, we'll never know.

    The sad thing is - we have a president who we can easily imagine doing that.
    David G
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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    As I've said before... the long, slow, climb out of the Bush Recession was probably about due for a slowdown. The Trump tax scam was precisely the wrong thing at the wrong time. An 'animal spirits' bump at the end of a long recovery did three things.

    First - it overheated things slightly for a bit. Which was the point. The R's saw the numbers coming for the midterm elections and this was their attempt at a 'it's the economy, stupid' play. Sure enough... the numbers looked good for a bit, just in time for the elections. But guess what... the voters weren't fooled. They still voted Democrats into the House in record numbers, and voted D in a bunch of other races as well.

    Second - it raised the deficit sharply... with much more to come. R's were hoping to downplay that part of things... but people noticed. And now it's going to take a lot of work, and lots of that scarce thing called 'discipline', to attempt to correct it.

    Third - it made the possibility for a 'soft landing' smaller. Which, I'm thinking, is why the Fed is behaving the way they are... trying to build in some maneuvering room.

    The slowdown is still coming.

    http://forum.woodenboat.com/showthre...65#post5635765
    David G
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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    As I've said before... the long, slow, climb out of the Bush Recession was probably about due for a slowdown. The Trump tax scam was precisely the wrong thing at the wrong time. An 'animal spirits' bump at the end of a long recovery did three things.

    First - it overheated things slightly for a bit. Which was the point. The R's saw the numbers coming for the midterm elections and this was their attempt at a 'it's the economy, stupid' play. Sure enough... the numbers looked good for a bit, just in time for the elections. But guess what... the voters weren't fooled. They still voted Democrats into the House in record numbers, and voted D in a bunch of other races as well.

    Second - it raised the deficit sharply... with much more to come. R's were hoping to downplay that part of things... but people noticed. And now it's going to take a lot of work, and lots of that scarce thing called 'discipline', to attempt to correct it.

    Third - it made the possibility for a 'soft landing' smaller. Which, I'm thinking, is why the Fed is behaving the way they are... trying to build in some maneuvering room.

    The slowdown is still coming.

    http://forum.woodenboat.com/showthre...65#post5635765
    Actually, I think the R plan was to use this spike in the deficit as the "excuse" for eliminating "entitlements" such as Social Security and Medicare. "Yeah, it's tough, but times are tough and we simply must show some fiscal responsibility."
    "The future is already here it's just not very evenly distributed." William Gibson

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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    Quote Originally Posted by webishop14 View Post
    Actually, I think the R plan was to use this spike in the deficit as the "excuse" for eliminating "entitlements" such as Social Security and Medicare. "Yeah, it's tough, but times are tough and we simply must show some fiscal responsibility."
    I honestly can't tell for sure if that was part of the original plan... or some frosting that someone noticed later. Either way - cynical. Very disingenuously cynical.
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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    I've heard the technical arguments for a recession before... many times.... and I know about the inverted yield curve.....

    ....but you don't have to be a student of sophisticated technical analysis to be able to foresee the potential for a recession. All you need to do, is look at the graph below. History isn't a perfect predictor of future events.... but it's a damn good place to start. Any investor who isn't taking steps to try to minimize their exposure to a recession, or at least considering the possibility, is, in my opinion, taking on a great deal more risk than I'm prepared to take.

    The good news: recessions are short; bear markets are relatively quick, compared to the bull markets.


    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







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    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    From the link:

    I think there is a lot of time - almost 2 years, between an inversion and the start of a recession. And sometimes the recession does not happen.

    I guess one could do something. And I will stay invested as I am, and I will keep spending as I have. Seems a reasonable way to handle the situation.
    IIRC, it is 6 month to a year. But we often don't realized the actual start of a recession until we are 3-6 months into it (unless you are the unfortunate one to lose your job ).
    I do think inverted yield curves do not often mislead. It is not normally the indicator that predicts 20 of the last 5 recessions. Watch the various manufacturing indexes the next few months for more information.


    There is no doubt, the effects of the botched tax reform will exasperate the problem, but we must realize the huge growth in debt during the previous 10 years will have just as bad of an impact.

    The trade situation could push the whole thing into a rather severe category. I would feel much better if the new NAFTA would get ratified. I would actually prefer to see progress on a new TPP than China. But not much talk on that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bob (oh, THAT Bob) View Post
    You don't think there's the slightest chance that Trump is injecting volatility on purpose and having others trade on the info, do you? I mean claiming an agreement with China (market predictably goes up) then showing/admitting/leaking that it's all vapor (market predictably goes down), is a fast way to make a lot of money.
    That would imply that Trump has more business/economic sense than any evidence would indicate.

    The man is a hotel/resort developer. It's not a industry that is going ng to give a man great insight into how the overall economy functions. Guys who run car companies, oil companies, tech companies, etc have to understand that. Developers, they are always reactionary to what everyone else sees already. On top of that, Trump's success rate at development is mediocre at best. He often devoples in the wrong place at the wrong time. That indicates a lack of economic awareness.

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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    Oh, no. My investments! My retirement!

    Wait.

    They already jacked that. Im fine, then.

    Peace,
    Robert

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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    You meant "Pieces," I think.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    Quote Originally Posted by TomF View Post
    You meant "Pieces," I think.
    Shoot. Im an Ironman, aside from being Emperor For Life.

    You think a few fancy financial finaglings can damp my enthusiasm for being able to feel? Shoot. Its about to rain, and Ill be out there, sipping coffee, watching the world be.

    That insurance guy? Im sure hell be at a desk, getting fatter and closer to a heart attack atop his mistress. What? I CAN be petty, if I try.

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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    Quote Originally Posted by amish rob View Post
    Shoot. Im an Ironman, aside from being Emperor For Life...
    We already knew that, eh? Ironman is as Ironman does...
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    Quote Originally Posted by TomF View Post
    We already knew that, eh? Ironman is as Ironman does...
    Relentless Forward Progress.

    Daughter is learning.

    The greatest feeling Ive ever had in sport is the feeling of fitness. I love when sport becomes a purely mental game, despite the extreme physicality of it.
    I enjoy the moments everyone, including me, recognizes and admits to exertion, exhaustion, and pain, and I smile, and embrace all the pain and exhaustion and turn it into resolve to never be the quitter.

    I once played chi sao with a world class Thai boxer. We spent a good ten minutes building into full speed, vicious forearm blows. At a certain point, he just stopped. He told me that when he looked in my eyes, he knew wed have to go until one of us died, and he wasnt willing to go there.

    We remain the best of friends. I think because he knows me.

    Speaking of boxers, you check out Ashely Thiner, yet? That girl can kick butt.

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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    Quote Originally Posted by amish rob View Post
    Shoot. Im an Ironman, aside from being Emperor For Life.
    The Emperor of Ice-Cream

    Call the roller of big cigars,
    The muscular one, and bid him whip
    In kitchen cups concupiscent curds.
    Let the wenches dawdle in such dress
    As they are used to wear, and let the boys
    Bring flowers in last month's newspapers.
    Let be be finale of seem.
    The only emperor is the emperor of ice-cream.

    Take from the dresser of deal,
    Lacking the three glass knobs, that sheet
    On which she embroidered fantails once
    And spread it so as to cover her face.
    If her horny feet protrude, they come
    To show how cold she is, and dumb.
    Let the lamp affix its beam.
    The only emperor is the emperor of ice-cream.

    Wallace Stevens
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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    Quote Originally Posted by TomF View Post
    We already knew that, eh? Ironman is as Ironman does...
    Only Pepper Potts knows for sure...



    Jeff C

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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    Quote Originally Posted by leikec View Post
    Only Pepper Potts knows for sure...



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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip-skiff View Post
    The Emperor of Ice-Cream

    Call the roller of big cigars,
    The muscular one, and bid him whip
    In kitchen cups concupiscent curds.
    Let the wenches dawdle in such dress
    As they are used to wear, and let the boys
    Bring flowers in last month's newspapers.
    Let be be finale of seem.
    The only emperor is the emperor of ice-cream.

    Take from the dresser of deal,
    Lacking the three glass knobs, that sheet
    On which she embroidered fantails once
    And spread it so as to cover her face.
    If her horny feet protrude, they come
    To show how cold she is, and dumb.
    Let the lamp affix its beam.
    The only emperor is the emperor of ice-cream.

    Wallace Stevens
    I always figured Id just remain, unclaimed, in the gutter where I lay, until cast, unnamed, into a mass paupers grave.

    Peace,
    Emperor For Life

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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip-skiff View Post
    The Emperor of Ice-Cream

    Call the roller of big cigars,
    The muscular one, and bid him whip
    In kitchen cups concupiscent curds.
    Let the wenches dawdle in such dress
    As they are used to wear, and let the boys
    Bring flowers in last month's newspapers.
    Let be be finale of seem.
    The only emperor is the emperor of ice-cream.

    Take from the dresser of deal,
    Lacking the three glass knobs, that sheet
    On which she embroidered fantails once
    And spread it so as to cover her face.
    If her horny feet protrude, they come
    To show how cold she is, and dumb.
    Let the lamp affix its beam.
    The only emperor is the emperor of ice-cream.

    —Wallace Stevens
    The emperor of two scoops of ice-cream.

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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    Quote Originally Posted by birlinn View Post
    The emperor of two scoops of ice-cream.
    Remember when I became BROTM? When I started the Emperor Jazz?

    Peace,
    Robert

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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    THink I might bump this up and add something to it that might make things interesting. A lot of the short term action on the stock market these days is driven by algorithmic trading. More so than ever. And some of the old-fashioned market indicators are built into many of those algorithms. You can see an example of that yesterday (and on Oct 11, and back on 8/21/15) when the simple 200 moving average of the S$P 500 breaks. Well, one thing will be interesting is what will happen when the 2 year vs 10 year treasury yields invert. They haven't yet done so. But I have to wonder that if they do on a given day, will we see a major sell off on the stock market. Just musing.

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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    The Old Inverted Yield Curve Joke, and do mean OLD, is "An inverted yield curve has predicted 17 of the last 9 recessions."

    Could it possibly be trade war concerns? Could it possibly be uncertainty about the next crazy/lying/psychotic tweet?

    Scratch another 700 points off the Dow - 2.5 to 2.75% on the broader markets. Oil collapsing.
    Last edited by John of Phoenix; 12-06-2018 at 11:29 AM.
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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    Quote Originally Posted by john of phoenix View Post
    could it certainly trade war concerns? Could it certainly be uncertainty about the next crazy/lying/psychotic tweet?
    ftfy.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    Quote Originally Posted by John of Phoenix View Post
    The Old Inverted Yield Curve Joke, and do mean OLD, is "An inverted yield curve has predicted 17 of the last 9 recessions."

    Could it possibly trade war concerns? Could it possibly be uncertainty about the next crazy/lying/psychotic tweet?

    Scratch another 700 points off the Dow - 2.5 to 2.75% on the broader markets. Oil collapsing.
    As I said before, I do not think that joke applies quite so well to the inverted yield curve as some of the other indicators.
    Yes oil prices are collapsing. This does not bode well for the economy. How much of it is due to an over supply or due to a dropping demand? I am not for sure. On the supply side, there won't be near as much drop off on the US fracking production during this drop than last time. My son, who is a asset manager in the Permian basin says that most of their projects have a break even point in the lower $30/barrel range, they have gotten really good at reducing the cost of fracking horizontal wells. And due to lack of pipelines, they have been only getting $50/barrel when prices were in the 60s and 70s. So I do not expect US production to slow down for a while. We are the largest producer, so it is doubtful OPEC and Russia can stem this fall.


    On the demand side: I need to do some research. I suspect global demand has been falling fairly rapidly due to economic slowdown. Perhaps even the continued growth of renewables is having an impact. But if the price is dropping due to weak demand, that is ominous.

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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    And then lets talk for just a bit about the trade situation. This week may have been one of the worse weeks yet for the outlook of the trade war abating. After a big rally in the market due to an apparent cease fire between the US and China, we learn there was likely very little substance to it. And then we see that that Canada arrested the CFO of Huawei at the US request for violating Iranian trade sanctions. But wait, I forgot one of the worse trade tweets by our idiot in chief yet: "I am a tariff man". So much for the Trumpists claiming the man is just playing a brilliant game of brinkmanship as a tough negotiating stance.

    Next, we have NAFTA. The new version is in trouble in the house, as many libs want more protectionist policies built into it. So what does our idiot in chief say: he is planning on pulling us out of the existing NAFTA. Who was it that said, after the election, there would be a unholy coalition between Trump and Bernie Sander democrats on the issue of trade? Oh, that would be me

    And overseas: is that Brexit deal going to help the global trade situation? Doesn't look like it.

    We are really picking a bad time (not that there is a good time), to revert to protectionist policies.

    Oil prices, inverted yield curves, apparent housing slowdown, employment might be weakening, debt problems, bubble bursting in the tech stocks,,,,,, Trying to find the forward looking economic good news....

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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    Many years ago I learned from a well know economist that the housing sector is the best indicator of overall economic health as it impacts so many sectors. A new home is far more than concrete, lumber and drywall. It entails carpets, drapes, lighting, appliances, furniture, garden hoses, garbage cans, the list goes on and on.

    Millennials are still living in their parents' basements, using Uber, and not even having sex. Home sales have cratered, car sales are slumping, and the birth rate is down.

    Gawd, what a buncha slugs.
    The best statement I've seen from this latest carnage came from a student who lived through it -

    "My generation will not allow this to continue!"

    Remember voting age is 18. Read it and weep reds.

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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    You were in a 4g inverted yield curve, with a MiG?

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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    "No ****, there I was, the only gauge that was still working was the Outside Temperature and even it was droppin' fast. Was I scared? Hell YES, I was scared ****less but here's what I did..."
    The best statement I've seen from this latest carnage came from a student who lived through it -

    "My generation will not allow this to continue!"

    Remember voting age is 18. Read it and weep reds.

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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    The Dow is in freefall and the SCROTUS tweets are silent about it.
    This post is temporary and my disappear at the discretion of the managment

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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    IIRC, it is 6 month to a year. But we often don't realized the actual start of a recession until we are 3-6 months into it (unless you are the unfortunate one to lose your job ).
    I do think inverted yield curves do not often mislead. It is not normally the indicator that predicts 20 of the last 5 recessions. Watch the various manufacturing indexes the next few months for more information.


    There is no doubt, the effects of the botched tax reform will exasperate the problem, but we must realize the huge growth in debt during the previous 10 years will have just as bad of an impact.

    The trade situation could push the whole thing into a rather severe category. I would feel much better if the new NAFTA would get ratified. I would actually prefer to see progress on a new TPP than China. But not much talk on that.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/419...recession-fast
    Even when a recession does happen, the amount of time before it starts has varied widely: sometimes it's taken nearly two years and sometimes only a handful of months.
    If you read as much opinion as I seem to do, you might notice a lot of concern about other issues. Some you mention. How the FED proceeds is another. I don't find any of the opinions helpful. My view is that long term the market is still going to return 10%. The rest is noise.
    Life is complex.

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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    Quote Originally Posted by John of Phoenix View Post
    "No ****, there I was, the only gauge that was still working was the Outside Temperature and even it was droppin' fast. Was I scared? Hell YES, I was scared ****less but here's what I did..."


    Peace,
    Robert

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    Default Re: Inverted yield curve

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/419...recession-fast


    If you read as much opinion as I seem to do, you might notice a lot of concern about other issues. Some you mention. How the FED proceeds is another. I don't find any of the opinions helpful. My view is that long term the market is still going to return 10%. The rest is noise.
    That depends on your starting and stopping point and what you define as long term. If you are fortunate enough that long term equates to "never needing the money", I suppose you are right. But few people are that fortunate.

    I will also add, even if one was to use the "never needing the money" approach, the long term gains, adjusted for inflation are in the 6-7% range. Which makes sense, over the very long term, in an advanced economy, overall stock market growth has to be approximately equal to inflation + economic growth + dividends paid.

    Its always best to look at possible returns adjusted for inflation as opposed to in nominal dollars. Nominal dollars are pretty worthless for any type of economic or investment analysis.
    Last edited by peb; 12-06-2018 at 12:52 PM.

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