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Thread: Update me on Brexit

  1. #36
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by Osborne Russell View Post
    Isn't it somewhat unrealistic to expect it to work only in one direction? Why would the rest of Europe agree?

    Wouldn't this mean that the ex-pats are remainers? Are they?
    Guess who were not allowed to vote in the Frauderendum?
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  2. #37
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett View Post
    Guess who were not allowed to vote in the Frauderendum?
    Wait, aren't they British citizens?
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  3. #38
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by Osborne Russell View Post
    Isn't it somewhat unrealistic to expect it to work only in one direction? Why would the rest of Europe agree?

    Wouldn't this mean that the ex-pats are remainers? Are they?
    A lot of ex-pats are remainers. Some are already facing difficulties with identification. People living in EU countries who have used their 'Burgundy' British passports as ID for years, for work and business, buying property, renting cars etc. are suddenly finding that officials are questioning their validity.
    Two thirds of the 780,000+ ex-pats living in Europe are aged between 15 - 64, which means they are mostly workers, not retired people. They have committed to a career abroad based on a set of circumstances which are about to change dramatically.
    Quote Originally Posted by Sky Blue View Post
    Isla is a genius, I suspect. I love how optimistic he is. There is great beauty there. But don't tell him.

  4. #39
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Hi Isla. I'm glad to "see" you.

  5. #40
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Sky Blue on 'ignore' is glorious.

    What did he say? ...Who cares?!
    "We were schooner-rigged and rakish, with a long and lissome hull ..."

  6. #41
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by AndyG View Post
    What did he say? ...Who cares?!
    C'mon, Andy. You know you read every word of it.

  7. #42
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by Osborne Russell View Post
    All these halfway measures, I don't get it, and I suppose this is my question: if the argument is loss of sovereignty, what is there to compromise on? Why the fancy pants? We can let go a little sovereignty if the price is right? I can't imagine the people approving such a deal.
    Sovereignty is a red herring, the UK has been a vasal state since 1956, we would be much better served by being a part of Europe than as an offshore airbase for the USA.
    Creationists aren't mad - they're possessed of demons.

  8. #43
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Anybody else get the feeling May is toast. She hasn't carried the party with her, the commons or the population. She wasn't negociating a deal, just running the clock down to bounce everyone, conservatives, labour, dup etc into her position. Her 'deal' is a dead parrot. A capitulation. It reads like we just lost WW1 peace treaty - payments, carving of parts of a country, you have no choice but to accept it...It's deeply underwhelming that after 2 years this is all she achieved. I don't think she has the trust of her party, politicians or some of the public anymore. What really does she think? Apparently people growing up with her said she was the same then. We had to 'tack' our foreign policy.

    The capitulations...

    1. She's giving the money for nothing back. Do we owe it? Maybe...maybe not.
    2. The trade deal won't get done in time. She's putting a border in the Irish sea when the backstop comes into force. Which it will.
    3. While we are still their we keep payments and the ECJ.
    4. We can only get out of this arrangement if we give them everything they ask for.

    It's confirmed this week by Macron that he will insist (as will others) that any future 'trade deal' will be traded for full access to UK fishing waters. It's not unreasonable to have to give something politically for access to the EU market. We have to accept that, but it's clear, the position she will put us in, will give us no leverage with negotiations, even less than we've had in the last 2 years. She's capitualted, gone over negotiators heads - Davis and Raab. She'll do it again. She now has form.

    I think May has had a difficult job, she is an experienced politician, she reads her briefs, but I think she is being too pragmatic and her/ Barnier's backstop is fundamentally unnaceptable. It was written overnight without Raab's knowledge. Olly Robbins is the culprit apparently, a civil servant. We do need more ideaological leadership on this. Unfortunately the population gave an instruction, and parliament MP's are more remain in number. Until we have a general election, the MP's position can't be corrected and the party' positions either. We have an unrepresentative governement, led by a remainer, illpracticed at negociations.

    May is reminding me of the last days of Thatcher. I see she ruled out the Norway option today. I don't think she realises she is no longer in control of events after her 'deal' was revealed. It's her death warrant, so to speak, in reality. Parliament is now going to take control.

    I voted leave. I would be happy with a hard Brexit. I can understand the remainers position though. I'd accept the Norway plus option. I realise we don't get border control, but on the other hand we will get the fishing waters back, which are quite clearly going to be traded off with any May trade deal to avoid the backstop coming in. That would be a massive boost for our coastal ports and Scotland that lost so much when we entered. So that's where I am at the minute: Norway plus/ EFTA. It would keep probably 60-70% people happy. Its the only option I can see Parliament passing now. To see the look on Macron's face when he tells his fisherman, they've lost the waters, after his latest ill timed emotional outburst, would be utterly utterly priceless, if it turns out that way.
    Last edited by Edward Pearson; 11-30-2018 at 07:11 AM.

  9. #44
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by Edward Pearson View Post
    [...]
    I realise we don't get border control, but on the other hand we will get the fishing waters back, which are quite clearly going to be traded off with any May trade deal to avoid the backstop coming in. That would be a massive boost for our coastal ports and Scotland that lost so much when we entered. So that's where I am at the minute: Norway plus/ EFTA. It would keep probably 60-70% people happy. Its the only option I can see Parliament passing now. To see the look on Macron's face when he tells his fisherman, they've lost the waters would be utterly priceless, if it turns out that way.
    As far as I read (link below), it will not be so easy.

    "The idea that the UK will be able have full control of its fishing waters is an illusion. We currently export up to 75 per cent of our fish to the EU."
    (Catherine Bearder is a Liberal Democrat politician and MEP for South East England)

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-norway-model-plan-nick-boles-conservative-fisheries-policy-eu-cfp-a8658781.html

    Gruß, Günter

  10. #45
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by isla View Post
    A lot of ex-pats are remainers. Some are already facing difficulties with identification. People living in EU countries who have used their 'Burgundy' British passports as ID for years, for work and business, buying property, renting cars etc. are suddenly finding that officials are questioning their validity.
    Two thirds of the 780,000+ ex-pats living in Europe are aged between 15 - 64, which means they are mostly workers, not retired people. They have committed to a career abroad based on a set of circumstances which are about to change dramatically.
    That's a lot of people with a range of serious problems.

    Self-government is the basis of sovereignty. But those most directly affected don't get to self-govern, i.e. vote, on an issue that is supposed to promote their sovereignty? That's a lot of irony, if that's the word.
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  11. #46
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by P.I. Stazzer-Newt View Post
    Sovereignty is a red herring, the UK has been a vasal state since 1956, we would be much better served by being a part of Europe than as an offshore airbase for the USA.
    Instead of Brexit, Britain should distance itself from the US, is that what you're saying?
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  12. #47
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by Edward Pearson View Post
    . . . on the other hand we will get the fishing waters back . . .
    In what sense? Is the case currently that Europe fishes the waters and sells the fish to Europe? And that after Brexit, only British fishermen will fish the waters, and sell the fish to Europe?
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  13. #48
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by Osborne Russell View Post
    Instead of Brexit, Britain should distance itself from the US, is that what you're saying?
    Britain needs to be honest about its the place in the world, it is a long time since we were a major power. Inside a developing EU we had a hope of owning some say in our governance, outside we are a small fish in n a large pond while suffering delusions of grandeur.


    A dose of reality is wanted.
    Creationists aren't mad - they're possessed of demons.

  14. #49
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by Osborne Russell View Post
    In what sense? Is the case currently that Europe fishes the waters and sells the fish to Europe? And that after Brexit, only British fishermen will fish the waters, and sell the fish to Europe?
    There are two fishing industries in the UK, big industrial trawlers owned by businesses, and smaller boats with smaller crews and owner skippers, who may only go out for a week or for a tide.
    The big industrial boats have mostly had their licences sold to European owners, so British fishing licence and quota holders are not all British anyway.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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  15. #50
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Which raises the interesting question.

    What exactly did the Cornish quota holders sell to the Spanish fishermen?

    And why would anyone trust them again?
    Creationists aren't mad - they're possessed of demons.

  16. #51
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by Osborne Russell View Post
    In what sense? Is the case currently that Europe fishes the waters and sells the fish to Europe? And that after Brexit, only British fishermen will fish the waters, and sell the fish to Europe?
    CFP and CAP are not included in EFTA. Under quota agreements EU boats catch 80% of fish in British waters. Even if British fisherman paid 10% import duty on fish, that's outweighed by a 400% increase in quota if catches remained the same. You could just double British fishermans quota, halve the total fish caught (giving an environmental dividend to fish stocks) so they bounce back quicker, watch the price increase, pay the import duty etc and still be better off. It matters to coastal towns economically and politically especially Scotland, and to Scottish conservatives. It's why the Norwegian populace won't join the EU. In reality, we aren't geared up to catch the fish, until the boats relocate. We would sell them rights of access, diminishing over a period. Given the choice that's now appearing before us, I'd rather the politicans take the fishing waters and get out of CFP & CAP (EFTA) over restriction to free movement (May).

  17. #52
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by Edward Pearson View Post
    CFP and CAP are not included in EFTA. Under quota agreements EU boats catch 80% of fish in British waters. Even if British fisherman paid 10% import duty on fish, that's outweighed by a 400% increase in quota if catches remained the same. You could just double British fishermans quota, halve the total fish caught (giving an environmental dividend to fish stocks) so they bounce back quicker, watch the price increase, pay the import duty etc and still be better off. It matters to coastal towns economically and politically especially Scotland, and to Scottish conservatives. It's why the Norwegian populace won't join the EU. In reality, we aren't geared up to catch the fish, until the boats relocate. We would sell them rights of access, diminishing over a period. Given the choice that's now appearing before us, I'd rather the politicans take the fishing waters and get out of CFP & CAP (EFTA) over restriction to free movement (May).
    Does it boil down to discrimination against British fisherman? Of a certain class, anyway? By some criteria? I can't imagine what else your argument boils down to.

    Or were fishermen of that class, in those waters, but of other nations, disadvantaged as well?

    In any case, unless you mean to exclude all but British fishermen from anywhere, you're going to have an international dispute, and then try to make a series of bilateral deals to deal with it, and wind up wishing everybody could just sit down at the same time in the same place, and make a deal binding everyone. Something like . . . the EU.

    So how is leaving the EU a solution?
    Last edited by Osborne Russell; 12-02-2018 at 08:05 PM. Reason: . . . but of other nations . . .
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  18. #53
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by Osborne Russell View Post
    Does it boil down to discrimination against British fisherman? Of a certain class, anyway? By some criteria? I can't imagine what else your argument boils down to.

    Or were fishermen of that class, in those waters, disadvantaged as well?

    In any case, unless you mean to exclude all but British fishermen from anywhere, you're going to have an international dispute, and then try to make a series of bilateral deals to deal with it, and wind up wishing everybody could just sit down at the same time in the same place, and make a deal binding everyone. Something like . . . the EU.

    So how is leaving the EU a solution?
    This is relevant
    A recent investigation by the EU lobby group for coastal fishermen Low Impact Fishers of Europe (Life) uncovered the opaque ownership pattern of the half-dozen fish producer organisations (POs), which possess 97% of English quotas.

    The investigation, entitled Fishy Business in the EU, found that one of the English POs belonged, in effect, to a single Dutch company. Another, the Fleetwood PO, is dominated by UK fishing companies controlled by Spanish interests.
    In Scotland, foreign companies have been kept at bay but the country’s generous quotas for species such as herring and mackerel have been bought up by a handful of fishing families. Two-fifths of the entire Scottish catch by value, and 65% by tonnage, was landed by 19 powerful super-trawlers in 2016. Small-scale coastal fishermen, who operate 80% of Scottish boats, have to make do with 1% of quotas.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-uk-government
    and
    http://nffo.org.uk/eu-referendum/201...ts-not-fantasy
    Never mind “Project Fear", “Project Fact" is needed here. The UK exports 45% of its catch. 80% of that quantity goes to EU countries. For example 90% of fish landed in Ramsgate are sold in the Boulogne Fish Market - for 15% more in value than they would get at home. When you visit North East Scotland you see vast European registered refrigerated trucks driving south and many don't stop until they reach France or Spain. UK fishing vessels fish in the waters of other EU countries. In addition to wider sovereign waters fishing rights UK fishermen have rights within the 6-12 mile limit of four other member states: Ireland, Germany, France and the Netherlands. For example trawlers out of Brixham exploit the valuable scallop stocks in the Baie de Seine. Trawlers out of Peterhead fish in Dutch and German waters. Many of the foreign vessels fishing in UK waters do so because the companies that own them bought from UK fishermen and with them the right to fish. It is important to note that the UK is allocated about 30% of the EU's total catch even though it has only 13% of the total sea area (ie UK EEZ compared to the entire EU EEZ, but not including territorial waters).
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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  19. #54
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    9 days until the 11th.

    On which day:

    May's Brexit 'solution' will be shot down in flames in parliament. Labour will go for a vote of no confidence in the government, which will lose. Nothing changes, but...

    Mayhem ensues.

    Outcomes?

    1. A general election.
    2. A new People's Vote.
    3. There is no three.

    ... A demand to delay Article 50's deadline, on any of the above.

    If '1', the SNP will argue for a new Independence Referendum (they already have the mandate in multiple forms), and will win it sometime in 2019. The DUP will be blown away and a united Ireland will be more inevitable, though not for a few years yet. The Tory Party will implode. Corbyn's Labour won't win outright. UKIP (aka the New BNP) will be nowhere. It'll be a fustercluck. Minority UK government and distabilisation for the next term. Liberal Party? Oh yes, the Liberals. Nowhere.

    If '2', and the options are 'this deal' (there is, after all, no other sane or offered one) or 'remain', remain will win. Hands down. The last two years will be seen as utterly wasted. The ERG w4nkers and Brexiteers in general will be spouting venom on the Mail's comments sections, but that is all. No riots in the streets. There's a possibility that a referendum option could be some form of 'Norway'. All the regs, none of the say. That's still lose-lose. As bad as a no-deal Brexit.

    The eventual result?

    ...Fascinating. I shall enjoy it all immensely.

    Andy
    "We were schooner-rigged and rakish, with a long and lissome hull ..."

  20. #55
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    ^ Yup!
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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  21. #56
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by Peerie Maa View Post
    ^ Yup!
    Even that last line?
    Simpler is better, except when complicated looks really cool.

  22. #57
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    OK it's a mess because the boats are too big and they are owned by opaque multinationals.

    1. How is leaving the EU going to make that easier to deal with?
    2. Why isn't the EU the right tool for the job?
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  23. #58
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    It isn't. And it is.

    Brexit, in a nutshell. It's flippin' bonkers.

    Andy
    "We were schooner-rigged and rakish, with a long and lissome hull ..."

  24. #59
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by AndyG View Post

    If '1', the SNP will argue for a new Independence Referendum (they already have the mandate in multiple forms), and will win it sometime in 2019.

    Andy
    Scotland can argue for it all it likes, but it still needs permission from Westminster to hold a referendum. Didn't you have one recently?

  25. #60
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by Osborne Russell View Post
    OK it's a mess because the boats are too big and they are owned by opaque multinationals.

    1. How is leaving the EU going to make that easier to deal with?
    2. Why isn't the EU the right tool for the job?
    Depends on the size of the UK governments gronicles and how loud the fishing lobby can shout and jump up and down.
    There is this [uirl=https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2009/23/contents] Marine and Coastal Access Act 2009[/url] that can be used to exclude non UK registered boats out of half of the North sea, and so on. But that may trigger our version of the Icelandic cod wars.

    I cannot see that happening.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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  26. #61
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    I also try to see it from the other side. You have a small boat. No one cares.

    These people who are supposed to stand up for you at the EU, how did they get there? I.e., whom do they owe? In fact who, exactly, are they?

    Many people lose many things to globalism, maybe. I lose all I have. F it.
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  27. #62
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by Osborne Russell View Post
    These people who are supposed to stand up for you at the EU, how did they get there? I.e., whom do they owe? In fact who, exactly, are they?
    Not quite sure what you mean by that.
    We elect Members of the European Parliament.
    The European Parliament is made up of 751 Members elected in the 28 Member States of the enlarged European Union. Since 1979 MEPs have been elected by direct universal suffrage for a five-year period. Each country decides on the form its election will take, but must guarantee equality of the sexes and a secret ballot.
    More here: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/meps/en/about
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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  28. #63
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Now tell us about the council of ministers.....
    Creationists aren't mad - they're possessed of demons.

  29. #64
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by P.I. Stazzer-Newt View Post
    Now tell us about the council of ministers.....
    This? https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/topics/fisheries/
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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  30. #65
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Not quite...
    https://europa.eu/european-union/abo.../council-eu_en

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  31. #66
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Someone has leaked the legal opinion on the withdrawal agreement, that May was trying to withold from Parliment and the nation. Seems she has been telling lies regarding our right to end the customs union. Still nothing about it on the BBC 4 hours after it was on another news source........

  32. #67
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    We live in interesting times.
    It ain't going to finish well.

  33. #68
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by P.I. Stazzer-Newt View Post
    Not quite...
    https://europa.eu/european-union/abo.../council-eu_en

    The antidote to democracy
    Perhaps you should read your own link?
    • Members: Government ministers from each EU country, according to the policy area to be discussed
    • President: Each EU country holds the presidency on a 6-month rotating basis
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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  34. #69
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    I hope the UK leaves, and leaves soon. Democratic results must be honored. Continuing on like this, indefinitely, could well destroy the country.

  35. #70
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Leave the British to get on with it, bluie.
    Like the French.

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