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Thread: Update me on Brexit

  1. #491
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Up the proverbial sans paddle.

    Corbyn has agreed to meet St. Teresa for talks.
    I doubt that will solve anything, unless he commits Labour firmly to Remain.
    Which he is too spineless to do.

    I think a bunch of professional comedians would be far more effective than the present government's shower of amateurs.

  2. #492
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Barclays is moving GBP170billion of its clients assets to Ireland.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business...l-brexit-fears

    'assets', what would they look like?
    Philip K. Dick — 'Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away'.

  3. #493
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Nah. the Act of Settlement will knock that on the head. But then again a Kraut Saxe-Coburg exodus is possible (say the Scots and Welsh in hope)
    Quote Originally Posted by Henning 4148 View Post
    In the meantime, I have my own theory on what might happen: The constitutional monarchy might be changed into a real monarchy again. Completely out of the way? I'm not sure. We will see. It may depend on how much public trust the British political actors loose by "playing their games". If they damage the system in which they exist to much, it might have unexpected consequences.
    Last edited by purri; 02-03-2019 at 05:08 PM.
    Xanthorrea

  4. #494
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    The BBC is reporting an 80% fall in investment for the UK car industry since 2016.
    Creationists aren't mad - they're possessed of demons.

  5. #495
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Now May is trying to bribe Labour MPs with pork barrel.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  6. #496
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    I heard an interesting angle on brexit on the radio.

    In Brexit, the voters didn't vote to do anything. They simply voted to stop doing something.
    As a result, there is nothing around which to form a consensus.

    It's indicative of the complacency of the initial decision to hold the referendum.
    Basically people were asked are they pissed off at the world - not - what can be done to make the world better. Now politicians have no direction from the people, so they're running around with their bottoms in their hands. Everyone can make up their own version of Brexit without going back on the public's wishes.
    Infact, the only people who can go back on the voters wishes are those who say, hang on a minute lets find the best solution.

    It is utter madness.
    Philip K. Dick — 'Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away'.

  7. #497
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    An excellent and clear summary of where we are at today by Ian Dunt of Politics Home, writing in the Washington Post:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlo...=.aef5b3e26e07
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  8. #498
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    It is obviously time to bring back the Monarchy, the turkeys in Parliament don’t seem up to the job. Who was the moron that thought a refereandum was a good idea?

  9. #499
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Blair wasn't it……………...

    Can't see the WP, paywall and that.

  10. #500
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    another pithy rant from Pie.

    Caution: justified bad language

    Yma o hyd

  11. #501
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    April Fool's Day is three days early this year.

  12. #502
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by bob winter View Post
    Who was the moron that thought a refereandum was a good idea?
    Quote Originally Posted by skuthorp View Post
    Blair wasn't it……………...
    It was the Blair "Which?" Project.
    Last edited by Duncan Gibbs; 02-02-2019 at 07:27 AM.
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  13. #503
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    It was Cameron. Let's hope he is our last Prime Minister from Eton.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  14. #504
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    The best guide to what is going on in Brussels is the estimable Tony Connelly of RTE.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/...027016-brexit/
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  15. #505
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Good heavens. It keeps getting worse.

  16. #506
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Nissan have just announced they will pull making their new model in the UK.
    Brexit is winning bigly.
    On a personal note, if no deal, to take a dog into the EU will require blood tests plus injections four months before travelling. Cost of the blood test by DEFRA? £175. Plus the injections and vet's fee.
    Just messed up our usual Easter and May trips to France with the pooch.
    I wish I could get hold of everyone that voted Brexit, and bang their heads together.

  17. #507
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Just listened to this on FB
    David Lammy | Brexit Speech | 10.01.2019


    Totally nailed it, coming and going.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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  18. #508
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by birlinn View Post
    Nissan have just announced they will pull making their new model in the UK.
    Brexit is winning bigly.
    On a personal note, if no deal, to take a dog into the EU will require blood tests plus injections four months before travelling. Cost of the blood test by DEFRA? £175. Plus the injections and vet's fee.
    Just messed up our usual Easter and May trips to France with the pooch.
    I wish I could get hold of everyone that voted Brexit, and bang their heads together.
    Other than making your wrists ache,I doubt you would achieve anything.I skimmed through the huge quantities of clickbait on yahoo related to Brexit and the enthusiasts are all that you might dread to find. I have never been able to understand why anybody would be so keen on a solution where everybody loses.Tribalism at it's worst perhaps.

  19. #509
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by Peerie Maa View Post
    This might cause a resurgence of the LibDems, where moderate right and moderate left could find common ground. It happened when the Lib Dems were formed from the nearly defunct Liberals and some dissatisfied senior Labour politicians.
    Possible movement in that direction? Not sure if they would join with Lib-Dems to form a new centrist party, but it's early days yet.

    Rebel Labour MPs set to quit party and form centre group..
    Growing discontent over policy on Brexit, antisemitism and Venezuela spur breakaway movement.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...m-centre-group
    Every time I see an adult on a bicycle, I no longer despair for the future of the human race. H. G. Wells

  20. #510
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    ^ Even more movement in that direction?

    Sir Vince Cable has promised the Liberal Democrats will “work with” rebel MPs as he claimed there is a “real chance” of a group of Labour MPs breaking away from the party.
    The comments from the leader of the unashamedly pro-EU party follow claims that at least six disaffected MPs are preparing to quit Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party over key policy disagreements, including Brexit and immigration.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8760861.html
    Every time I see an adult on a bicycle, I no longer despair for the future of the human race. H. G. Wells

  21. #511
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    In more nonsese, stories popped up in once sensible newspapers that plans exist for the Queen to be taken to safety in the event of post-Brexit rioting and that plans exist for a General Election in June.

    A Tory MP, Daniel Kawzinski, made the news by asking the Polish Government to block any attempt to extend the deadline (they said it wasnt their business) and then made the extraordinary claim that Britain didn't receieve anything from Marshall Aid (we got 26% of it, the biggest share of any nation, as any fule kno).
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  22. #512
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett View Post
    In more nonsese, stories popped up in once sensible newspapers that plans exist for the Queen to be taken to safety in the event of post-Brexit rioting and that plans exist for a General Election in June.

    A Tory MP, Daniel Kawzinski, made the news by asking the Polish Government to block any attempt to extend the deadline (they said it wasnt their business) and then made the extraordinary claim that Britain didn't receieve anything from Marshall Aid (we got 26% of it, the biggest share of any nation, as any fule kno).
    Mr Kawzinski appears to be trying to make a name for himself, sadly he is coming across as a prize plonker.
    Every time I see an adult on a bicycle, I no longer despair for the future of the human race. H. G. Wells

  23. #513
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    the notion that the Queen would allow herself to be evacuated
    It's insulting. For the British press, Brexit is the greatest thing ever. You wonder how they got along without it.

  24. #514
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    #497. +1 Wasn't that an eye opener.

    As a recent headline noted, May may loose the UK itself by being dilatory. The idea of the Scots going off by themselves again is not so far fetched.

    Sad. Really sad.
    Gerard>
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  25. #515
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    The people of Sunderland have changed their minds, now:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business...ld-new-x-trail
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  26. #516
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    It might be a bit late for that and many other things beside.

  27. #517
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett View Post
    In more nonsese, stories popped up in once sensible newspapers that plans exist for the Queen to be taken to safety in the event of post-Brexit rioting and that plans exist for a General Election in June.

    A Tory MP, Daniel Kawzinski, made the news by asking the Polish Government to block any attempt to extend the deadline (they said it wasnt their business) and then made the extraordinary claim that Britain didn't receieve anything from Marshall Aid (we got 26% of it, the biggest share of any nation, as any fule kno).
    Did you mean this? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-American_loan
    Not Marshall Aid, and the strings attached made it worse than useless.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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  28. #518
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett View Post
    It was Cameron. Let's hope he is our last Prime Minister from Eton.
    I'm getting my cooky-cutter formed spineless PMs mixed up... Cameron it was indeed.
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  29. #519
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Robert Peston, now of ITV but formerly Economics Editor of the BBC, just posted this on his Facebook page:

    Here is what members of the cabinet said to me when I pointed them towards a statement made in the Sunday Telegraph by the prime minister that she is "determined to deliver Brexit and determined to deliver on time - on March 29 2019".


    "Farcical" said one. "Total delusion" said another. "Verifiably untrue" said a third.


    It's not that they doubt Theresa May is working to take the UK out of the EU. It's just they cannot see how it is remotely possible that departure can be achieved in the less than eight week remaining before the official leaving day.


    And unless she is explicitly saying that she is now working for the most chaotic no-deal Brexit imaginable, which they don't believe is yet official policy, then they just cannot conceive how 29 March is a realistic date - because there is massively too much legislation to pass through parliament.


    But to be frank, that is the least of their anxieties.


    Far worse for most of them is that they are guessing at her real strategy, since they don't believe her official line - that she believes the EU will move far enough, or at all, on the widely loathed backstop to secure a majority for a Brexit deal from the votes of Tory MPs and Northern Ireland's 10 DUP MPs.

    Presumably the scales will fall from Theresa May's and all our eyes this week, when talks between the UK and EU resume tomorrow and she - her ministers think - goes to Brussels towards the end of the week.

    Or perhaps not, since her colleagues frequently tell me that her capacity to describe the absence of agreement as progress may well be without equal in modern political history.


    As it happens, some in the Cabinet think the EU will ultimately write a legally meaningful codicil to the Withdrawal Agreement, which would have the effect of reducing the risk of the UK being forced to remain in the backstop forever to an uninterestingly trivial one.


    They are convinced that Angela Merkel has a soft spot for May and the UK, and will somehow persuade the French president and the rest to become emollient.


    Truthfully I think that is unlikely. But even if it turns out to be correct, there would still be perhaps 20 ERG Brexiter ultras - or possibly more - among Tory MPs who would never be reconciled to a deal that does not include an explicitly reopened and reworked Withdrawal Agreement.


    So even the Cabinet optimists don't think that May can move the EU enough to get her deal through.


    What is required is for Labour MPs to be converted to her cause (which is what I've been arguing here for days).


    So for some ministers there is method in what on the surface is May's fatuous exercise of asking the EU to remake the backstop - which is that it is a cover to convert Labour MPs (or so they hope - since she won't tell them and honestly they're not sure).


    And to digress briefly, Sajid Javid's statement today on the Marr show that alternative technological arrangements to the backstop "can be done" was described as "laughably absurd" by one of his close colleagues with knowledge of the latest thinking of HMRC and the Border Force.


    So this will be a week which at best could - but probably won't - convert a few but not enough Tory Brexit sceptics to her cause.


    More important will be whether progress is made by May in wooing Labour MPs - though there is ambiguity about whether she is hoping a caucus may be prepared to defy the Labour whip or (and ministers see this as a much longer shot) Corbyn and the entire parliamentary Labour party could be talked round.


    Ministers know that converting enough Labour MPs almost certainly requires a commitment that the long-term relationship between the UK and the EU will be based on the customs union - which of course risks alienating more Brexiter Tory MPs, but could bring the DUP back as a supporter of the Brexit deal, since it would (as I've said many times) turn the backstop into a demonstrably short-term bridging arrangement.


    But May's cabinet hasn't the faintest idea whether the prime minister will ever compromise her red lines far enough to embrace customs-union membership as an explicit aim of policy.


    Some ministers are crossing their fingers that the next time parliament is allowed a vote on backbenchers' Brexit-related amendments, on 14 February, at least one enterprising centreground Tory will table a call for a customs-union destination for the UK. "That would flush out whether the PM will ever opt for the only practical compromise" said one minister.


    Were May to relent and go with a customs-union-based Brexit, the resignation of the secretary of state for international trade, Disgraced Former Defence Secretary Liam Fox, would not be far behind, of course, since he would no longer be able to negotiate free trade deals under customs-union rules.


    But that would be trivial collateral damage, compared with the mass cabinet resignations were Theresa May to abandon all hope of a deal and instead make it official policy to go for a no-deal Brexit.


    Up to a third of the cabinet would quit in those circumstances, including Chancellor, justice secretary, business secretary, work and pensions secretary, and minister for the cabinet office.


    But all this is in the realm of probability and hypothesis. The only certainty, among cabinet ministers other than the most important one, is that 29 March is now only a reference point for setting the real date of departure, rather than the departure date itself.


    And what a significant number of ministers tell me is that there will be mass government walkouts on or before 14 February - to take advantage of that next available date to vote to rule out a no-deal Brexit - unless before then the PM publicly announces an intention to negotiate with the EU a postponement of Brexit day of at least three months.



    So the current few days matter, probably not in definitively determining what kind of Brexit, if any, will ultimately be the UK's destiny, but whether she very explicitly attempts to delay Brexit as the price of pre-empting and preventing so many ministers quitting that (again) her own tenure in Downing Street would be in jeopardy.


















    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  30. #520
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by Peerie Maa View Post
    Did you mean this? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-American_loan
    Not Marshall Aid, and the strings attached made it worse than useless.
    No. I meant this:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british...shall_01.shtml

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marsha...ans_and_grants
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  31. #521
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    I saw that Wikki.
    The UK received 385 million USD of its Marshall Plan aid in the form of loans.[101] Unconnected to the Marshall Plan the UK also received direct loans from the US amounting to 4.6 billion USD.[101]
    Not much discussed in British history, although the Keynes loans and their final repayment (did other countries not default) were covered.
    Last edited by Peerie Maa; 02-04-2019 at 05:59 AM. Reason: Too many roundabouts.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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  32. #522
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Andrew, thank you for the link to the BBC historic article. The unfavourable investment of the Marshal Plan money in regaining the (no longer achievable) status of a world power while setting the modernisation of industry and infrastructure second. 70 years later the Brexit salesmen were/are sounding a little familiar: "Global Britain", "regaining souvereignty", etc. Self harm by national pride and lack of calm analysis?
    Gruß, Günter

  33. #523
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Günter, you are absolutely right.

    I know that Paul Kennedy’s “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers”, which makes exactly this point, is a set book at the Chinese Foreign Office Staff College, but I wonder if anyone in this silly country of mine ever read it.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  34. #524
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by Peerie Maa View Post
    I saw that Wikki. Not much discussed in British history, although the Milton Keynes loans and their final repayment (did other countries not default) were covered.
    Maynard?
    Creationists aren't mad - they're possessed of demons.

  35. #525
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    Default Re: Update me on Brexit

    With 4 months stockpiled Ben and Jerries ice cream, Magnums and Viagra, on this British side of the Channel we can now say our national preparations are fully complete.


    https://www.thepharmacist.co.uk/phar...ead-of-brexit/

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/unilever-stockpiles-magnum-and-ben-jerrys-icecream-in-case-of-nodeal-brexit-a4054731.html

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