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Thread: What if Republicans win the House?

  1. #1
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    Default What if Republicans win the House?

    The implications are a lot broader than just a Democratic defeat. From Teagan Goddard:

    If you believe the various election forecasts, it’s most likely that Democrats will win control of the House of Representatives and Republicans will keep control of the Senate. FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats an 85% chance of taking control of the lower chamber while Republicans have an 85% chance of keeping the Senate.

    But as all Political Wire readers know well, these same forecasts pointed to Hillary Clinton as the most likely winner of the 2016 presidential election. She had a 70% chance to win but ended up losing the electoral vote to Donald Trump.

    As a result, it’s not impossible to at least imagine a surprise Republican win of the House. It’s highly unlikely, but it could still happen.

    As Democratic pollster Peter Hart told First Read about the last NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll: “It is a political kaleidoscope. You turn the poll one way, and it looks good for Democrats. But if you turn it another way, he adds, you can see how the GOP squeaks through.”

    Here’s why:


    • Democrats lead nationally among likely voters by a larger margin (7 points) than among registered voters (6 points), suggesting they have the voting intensity on their side. But that 7-point margin among likely voters is down from 9 points in October;
    • President Trump’s job rating — 46% among likely voters — is in the danger zone for a sitting president facing his first midterm, but it’s also higher than it was earlier in his presidency;
    • 59% of registered voters say they want significant change in the direction Trump has been leading the country, but 68% say they’re satisfied with the state of the economy;
    • And Democrats have more enthusiasm (85% say they have a high level of interest in the midterms), but Republicans have nearly caught up here (82%).


    The implications of Republicans holding the House would be enormous. Nearly all of the moderates would be gone, with most having chosen retirement instead of running for re-election. The House Republican leadership could govern from the right without needing many votes in the middle. Combined with a GOP-controlled Senate, a new conservative movement would be born.

    But even more important, a GOP victory in the House would almost certainly happen while Democrats won the popular vote. The final generic ballot polls show Democrats with an 8-point lead nationally for the House. A GOP win would cement minority rule in every branch of the federal government.

    That would be solid proof that democracy doesn’t work in America anymore. And it would set in motion a political crisis unmatched in modern U.S. history.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    Big fear is what happens to Mueller among others?

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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    I think the article is broader than that. We've long recognized that the antiquated electoral college election system sometimes results in the election of a candidate who has lost the majority of the vote.....

    ...but with gerrymandering and voter suppression, we might be approaching the point where the clear minority could control the entire government. This CANNOT be good for democracy, especially if that minority is increasingly radicalized.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    what dems need for long term change is to take the governors mansions. The states do the districting. With Democrats in charge, the Gerrymandering can be brought to a halt.
    "If you think you are too small to make a difference, try sleeping with a mosquito"

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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    Quote Originally Posted by Art Haberland View Post
    what dems need for long term change is to take the governors mansions. The states do the districting. With Democrats in charge, the Gerrymandering can be brought to a halt.
    Don't forget the COURTS!

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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    What if? WHAT IF?

    From the Blue Wave they promised you last summer to “what if” the day before the election, Chuck’s trying to prepare you for the realization that polling doesn’t measure opinion, but rather tries to guide opinion.

    Wednesday’s headline: WHAT HAPPENED?
    Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country. John Fn Kennedy. (D)

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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    Quote Originally Posted by mdh View Post
    What if? WHAT IF?

    From the Blue Wave they promised you last summer to “what if” the day before the election, Chuck’s trying to prepare you for the realization that polling doesn’t measure opinion, but rather tries to guide opinion.

    Wednesday’s headline: WHAT HAPPENED?
    Well, the What If may become Oh dear!

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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    Quote Originally Posted by mdh View Post
    What if? WHAT IF?

    From the Blue Wave they promised you last summer to “what if” the day before the election, Chuck’s trying to prepare you for the realization that polling doesn’t measure opinion, but rather tries to guide opinion.

    Wednesday’s headline: WHAT HAPPENED?
    yip
    "I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible that you may be mistaken." (stolen from TomF )

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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    If it comes to "What happened?", the answer is simple. The Republicans cheating paid off.

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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    Relax, Norman. You're going to be just fine.

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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sky Blue View Post
    Relax, Norman. You're going to be just fine.
    Unfortunately, the country might not be so fine.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    What happens? My guess is there will be more nut cases posting to murder republicans...like at least two posters on this forum have done in no uncertain words. Yep, all in the name of democratic justice.

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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    Quote Originally Posted by BillP View Post
    What happens? My guess is there will be more nut cases posting to murder republicans...like at least two posters on this forum have done in no uncertain words.
    That's a pretty serious allegation. Link? Or lie?
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    That's a pretty serious allegation. Link? Or lie?
    Here's one:
    http://forum.woodenboat.com/showthre...ight=oligarchy

    The other guy deleted his post on another thread about exercising his rights and shooting republicans. Will he step up here?

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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    Quote Originally Posted by BillP View Post
    Here's one:
    http://forum.woodenboat.com/showthre...ight=oligarchy

    The other guy deleted his post on another thread about exercising his rights and shooting republicans. Will he step up here?
    Your link is to a thread, you expect me to search for the post you want me to see? Right! Oh wait, you said it was deleted which means it never happened, got it!

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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    I think the article is broader than that. We've long recognized that the antiquated electoral college election system sometimes results in the election of a candidate who has lost the majority of the vote.....

    ...but with gerrymandering and voter suppression, we might be approaching the point where the clear minority could control the entire government. This CANNOT be good for democracy, especially if that minority is increasingly radicalized.
    Too bad that there was not an attempt to make a compact among the states that would give each state's electoral vote to the popular vote leader.

    Oh. Wait. There was one. But it required states with 270+ elector votes to sign on. And several Democratic leaning states failed to do so. They went for Trump.

    Always close the barn door after the horses leave.
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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    Quote Originally Posted by S.V. Airlie View Post
    Your link is to a thread, you expect me to search for the post you want me to see? Right! Oh wait, you said it was deleted which means it never happened, got it!
    If you don't want to read the string that's your problem. Here's the other link that I thought was erased but you will have to read it too.

    http://forum.woodenboat.com/showthre...ighlight=BillP

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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    Quote Originally Posted by BillP View Post
    If you don't want to read the string that's your problem. Here's the other link that I thought was erased but you will have to read it too.

    http://forum.woodenboat.com/showthre...ighlight=BillP
    Not really, I don't look for needles in a haystack either.Best of all, you said it had been deleted, so what am I actually looking for! Looking for something that isn't there seems dumb to me.

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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    Quote Originally Posted by BillP View Post
    What happens? My guess is there will be more nut cases posting to murder republicans...like at least two posters on this forum have done in no uncertain words. Yep, all in the name of democratic justice.
    As opposed to the POTUS himself instigating violence at every turn against anyone who disagrees with him? And which has resulted in actual murders and serious threats? Get a grip.

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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    Quote Originally Posted by ron ll View Post
    As opposed to the POTUS himself instigating violence at every turn against anyone who disagrees with him? And which has resulted in actual murders and serious threats? Get a grip.
    I have a grip and it doesn't include cold blooded murder.

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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    Quote Originally Posted by ron ll View Post
    As opposed to the POTUS himself instigating violence at every turn against anyone who disagrees with him? And which has resulted in actual murders and serious threats? Get a grip.
    One incident negates everything Trump has said don't you know?

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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    I have been here long enough and read enough threads that I don't think any of the regulars would murder anybody or even joke of it. Liberal or Conservative, the Regulars here have a pretty good grip on what is right and wrong.
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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    Quote Originally Posted by BillP View Post
    If you don't want to read the string that's your problem. Here's the other link that I thought was erased but you will have to read it too.

    http://forum.woodenboat.com/showthre...ighlight=BillP
    A direct link to each post is the post number itself in the top right hand corner of the post.
    Rattling the teacups.

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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    Quote Originally Posted by oznabrag View Post
    A direct link to each post is the post number itself in the top right hand corner of the post.
    The problem is, he didn't even name the guy who said what was supposedly said.

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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    Quote Originally Posted by S.V. Airlie View Post
    Not really, I don't look for needles in a haystack either.Best of all, you said it had been deleted, so what am I actually looking for! Looking for something that isn't there seems dumb to me.
    FWIW Jamie, the OP's opening post in the thread Bill linked - no digging required.

    http://forum.woodenboat.com/showthre...ighlight=BillP
    I think it may be time for the citizens to take up their 2nd amendment rights and shoot the next politician that mouths the obligatory "thoughts and prayers" to the families of the latest mass shooting instead of getting off their fat subsidized ass and doing something about it. I'm not saying that action must start with guns but that would be the most obvious place to begin. Our whole culture needs some reorganizing before each citizen can feel safe and free in their person. Too much of our society is like a boot camp for the next shooter.


    Pete
    Don't underestimate the power of stupid people in large numbers!

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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    Quote Originally Posted by epoxyboy View Post
    FWIW Jamie, the OP's opening post in the thread Bill linked - no digging required.

    http://forum.woodenboat.com/showthre...ighlight=BillP
    I think it may be time for the citizens to take up their 2nd amendment rights and shoot the next politician that mouths the obligatory "thoughts and prayers" to the families of the latest mass shooting instead of getting off their fat subsidized ass and doing something about it. I'm not saying that action must start with guns but that would be the most obvious place to begin. Our whole culture needs some reorganizing before each citizen can feel safe and free in their person. Too much of our society is like a boot camp for the next shooter.


    Pete
    Your correct, I just hit the link and found a heck of a lot of posts. Figgered it would be on ONE! Me bad!

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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    Quote Originally Posted by S.V. Airlie View Post
    The problem is, he didn't even name the guy who said what was supposedly said.
    Its right there in the opening post. But you should really read the ongoing remarks to put in in perspective, as someone may have a different way of interpretating someone elses words.......something i have noticed you yourself are very prone to doing. People who expect to be spoon fed information and can not be ar*sed to look for themselves, should not expected to be treated any better than mushrooms, kept in the dark and fed sh*t, because you are too lazy to inform yourselfs.

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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    If Republicans hold the House, little will change.

    A few things will get through, but there is no single Republican consensus. Congress actually opposes more than supports President Trump's agenda. They'll probably do another tax cut, and pass some deregulation bills. But noth much else of substance. They've already proven to be deadlocked on the Wall, immigration law charges, health care law changes, infrastructure, Afghanistand and Iraq, and there's skepticism on trade. They are angry activists and pseudo-revolutionaries, more than a governing party.

    Judges will be confirmed and Stern Words will be Spoken about Obstructionist Democrats by Real Conservatives!

    Trump will think he can fire Sessions and stop the Mueller investigation with impunity, which will make the base of both parties a little more polarized.

    Even if Mueller is stopped, a half dozen lawsuits underway will land on his plate from sexual harrassment to emoluments. At some point his tax returns will emerge and they will be shameful and document unethical if not illegal acts.

    Whatever happens between 2018 and 2020 will be entirely on President Trump. Of course he'll claim credit for all good and blame others for all bad in his typical bully/snowflake duality.

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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    Quote Originally Posted by epoxyboy View Post
    FWIW Jamie, the OP's opening post in the thread Bill linked - no digging required.

    http://forum.woodenboat.com/showthre...ighlight=BillP
    I think it may be time for the citizens to take up their 2nd amendment rights and shoot the next politician that mouths the obligatory "thoughts and prayers" to the families of the latest mass shooting instead of getting off their fat subsidized ass and doing something about it. I'm not saying that action must start with guns but that would be the most obvious place to begin. Our whole culture needs some reorganizing before each citizen can feel safe and free in their person. Too much of our society is like a boot camp for the next shooter.


    Pete

    I could never advocate or support that.
    Enjoy a good rum on the rocks at sunset.

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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    I cannot support "that" either. It should be "the next politician who"

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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    Quote Originally Posted by David W Pratt View Post
    I cannot support "that" either. It should be "the next politician who"
    What if he just 'mouths' it rather than saying it audibly?

    Does he get shot with a blank?
    Enjoy a good rum on the rocks at sunset.

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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    Most telling. It didn’t take long for people here to name names and implicate others.

    Moreover - this thread now has been recorded by authorities. How they chose to use it is unclear.
    Be wary of your critics, at peace with your decisions, and work hard to be a better man.

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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rum_Pirate View Post
    What if he just 'mouths' it rather than saying it audibly?

    Does he get shot with a blank?
    I shouldn't laugh... but that's funny
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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    Quote Originally Posted by mdh View Post
    What if? WHAT IF?

    From the Blue Wave they promised you last summer to “what if” the day before the election, Chuck’s trying to prepare you for the realization that polling doesn’t measure opinion, but rather tries to guide opinion.

    Wednesday’s headline: WHAT HAPPENED?
    Maybe they will kill your social security and medicare, Well at least you wont have to worry about direct deposit or the mail box and no more worries about health care you wont have any, oh and just so you can be proud of your vote, you will not have to worry about getting an abortion, let the bastards freeze in the dark we still have our church and guns.
    "para todo mal, mezcal, y para todo bien también" (for everything bad, mezcal, and for everything good, as well.)

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    Default Re: What if Republicans win the House?

    No matter what happens tomorrow, Wednesday will still be

    Prince Spaghetti Day!


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