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Thread: With Trump grabbing all the credit his little hands can hold for the economy/job boom

  1. #1
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    Default With Trump grabbing all the credit his little hands can hold for the economy/job boom

    will he accept responsibility when the bull market changes to bear? Experts (which certainly don't include anyone on Trump's team) are warning that it's long overdue.

  2. #2
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    Default Re: With Trump grabbing all the credit his little hands can hold for the economy/job

    For everyone's sake, I hope nothing serious happens. Trump's team makes the Hoover administration look like flaming geniuses.
    Last edited by Keith Wilson; 09-14-2018 at 08:40 AM.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

    Richard Feynman

  3. #3
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    Default Re: With Trump grabbing all the credit his little hands can hold for the economy/job

    The truth is, the market deserves credit, not Trump, Obama, or the Queen of England.

    Heres economic growth 1992-2018. The graph is a little messy: U.S. is purple, all of the OECD countries are red, the European Union is orange, the G7 countries are green, and the G20 countries are blue. You can make your own graph here: https://data.oecd.org/gdp/quarterly-...ndicator-chart

    IMG_0142.jpg

    How about unemployment? I posted this recently on another thread.

    IMG_0070.PNG

    The facts show that our economic performance mirrors the world's. The great creation of civilization in the twentieth century was the open managed market. Free trade, central banks, (generally) honest markets, free flow of capital, insurance and regulatory schemes, all of it.

    The great engine of the modern market is pretty resilient and ideology-proof. Remember 2008-2009 when austerity versus stimulus was a really big deal for many people? No doubt there were differential effects in the citizens of countries under different regimes, but there is no particular evidence that stimulus versus austerity led to a faster recovery or a higher growth rate.

    The bitter irony, of course, is that President Trump is busily taking credit for riding a rising tide. At the same time, no one threatens to upend the global financial and trading system more than President Trump. He literally is poisoning the cake he is claiming he baked.

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    Default Re: With Trump grabbing all the credit his little hands can hold for the economy/job

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Ross View Post
    The great creation of civilization in the twentieth century was the open managed market.
    rofl
    Simpler is better, except when complicated looks really cool.

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    Default Re: With Trump grabbing all the credit his little hands can hold for the economy/job

    its that word 'managed' that you threw in there that's got me laughing
    can't wait till oznabrag shows up. . .
    Simpler is better, except when complicated looks really cool.

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    Default Re: With Trump grabbing all the credit his little hands can hold for the economy/job

    Neither Trump nor Obama deserves direct credit for nearly 10 years of continued growth and expansion.....

    ...but I'd argue that Obama deserves credit for managing the 2008/9 economic crisis. Perhaps not to everyone's satisfaction... and yes, it's disappointing that no Wall Street execs were indicted and convicted... but it seems to me that while Presidents can't do much of anything to boost the economy, they certainly have the power to make things worse. The Hippocratic dictum applies to Presidents, as well as doctors: "First, do no harm".
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







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    Default Re: With Trump grabbing all the credit his little hands can hold for the economy/job

    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Pless View Post
    its that word 'managed' that you threw in there that's got me laughing
    can't wait till oznabrag shows up. . .
    You can start doing backflips and hand stands, now.
    Rattling the teacups.

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    Default Re: With Trump grabbing all the credit his little hands can hold for the economy/job

    Cris - true enough... as far as it goes. There is wisdom in, and too little understanding of, the truism that presidents tend to get too much blame and too much credit for conditions and outcomes that are actually driven by the business cycle, etc.

    But it's also true that - within that larger tidal reality - a president can enact policies that precipitate changes. Or fail to enact policies that would have averted a bad outcome. I offer you Herbert Hoover, Ronald Raygun, BushII, Obama, and the efforts from Trump that already have the likelihood of perverse effects locked in - while he 'efforts' more.

    Trumps naked wealth transfer, that he calls 'tax reform', is one example. It did provide a bit of a bump to the economy. Based mostly on 'animal spirits' factors rather than anything fundamental. A short-term benefit. Adding to a an already high and politically polarizing level of income/wealth inequality. Increasing the difficulty of a 'soft landing' when the downturn does come. The Fed has little maneuvering room presently - though they are taking steps to rectify that. And adding to the deficit. Bigly. All in aid of making the economy look good for the midterms (and - they hope - for the 2020 presidential election). There's that 'too little understanding' thing again. People tend to vote for incumbents when the economy is doing well or looking up.
    David G
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    http://www.harborwoodworking.com/boat.html

    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

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    Default Re: With Trump grabbing all the credit his little hands can hold for the economy/job

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Ross View Post
    The truth is, ...
    I find there is a lot of cherry picking in the "truth." Here is a view of current economic data collection: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/14/o...d%20Columnists
    Life is complex.

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    Default Re: With Trump grabbing all the credit his little hands can hold for the economy/job

    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Pless View Post
    its that word 'managed' that you threw in there that's got me laughing
    can't wait till oznabrag shows up. . .
    Oh the Deep State keeps us from ruin every day. A set of non-government organizations, collectives of governments, and private and quasi-private organizations keep the world running. I don't mean "managed" in the cartoonish Marxist or Socialist or Fascist sense, I mean managed in a professional sense via a set of agreements, customs, and norms which were largely built after the Second World War. Trump is completely oblivious to this incredibly valuable set of social constructs.

    Compare the world today (which is at risk) to the world prior to WWII when financial panics and bubble economies were not the exception but the norm. The amount of dead loss friction in trade and commerce and finance has been reduced dramatically. Trump's trade war and attacks on the G7, NATO, the EU, and anything more complicated than a condo tower project is slowly eroding the bedrock.

    Boring deep state bureaucrats who keep the world running, short list off the top of my head:

    World Trade Organization, which evolved from the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs
    World Customs Organization
    G7, G20
    International Accounting Standards Board and the Financial Accounting Standards Board
    International Organization for Standardization (ISO)
    International Maritime Organization
    Bank for International Settlements
    SWIFT
    The Creative Commons
    Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development
    World Health Organization

    There's more to list.

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    Default Re: With Trump grabbing all the credit his little hands can hold for the economy/job

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    Neither Trump nor Obama deserves direct credit for nearly 10 years of continued growth and expansion.....

    ...but I'd argue that Obama deserves credit for managing the 2008/9 economic crisis. Perhaps not to everyone's satisfaction... and yes, it's disappointing that no Wall Street execs were indicted and convicted... but it seems to me that while Presidents can't do much of anything to boost the economy, they certainly have the power to make things worse. The Hippocratic dictum applies to Presidents, as well as doctors: "First, do no harm".
    I guess there are 'schools of thought', but the FACT is the current trend began about 9 years ago. The best Trump can honestly claim is nothing he's done has changed the trajectory he inherited. At least not yet.

    It's also a FACT that his tariffs appear to be costing American jobs, rather than saving them.

    Some of this reminds me of NAFTA and the many, many posts about how bad it was. FACT is that no one who had opposed NAFTA showed us a comparison of the decade before to the decade after to show us how it cost jobs. NEITHER did those who supported NAFTA do such a comparison to show us how it created jobs.

    All I could draw from that is it's impact, either way, was far less than feared or hoped for.
    How do we form a mutiny? Our new captain is navigating poorly.

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    Default Re: With Trump grabbing all the credit his little hands can hold for the economy/job

    I still think the basic, simple, concept is that our economy needs money to keep circulating, much as our bodies need blood to keep circulating.

    If too much, or too little, money gets 'parked' in one place, the economy suffers.

    By nature, money trickles UP as people spend it to buy goods or services. It must be pumped back down (wages/tax codes) so it can be spent again.
    How do we form a mutiny? Our new captain is navigating poorly.

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    Default Re: With Trump grabbing all the credit his little hands can hold for the economy/job

    Quote Originally Posted by John Smith View Post
    I guess there are 'schools of thought', but the FACT is the current trend began about 9 years ago. The best Trump can honestly claim is nothing he's done has changed the trajectory he inherited. At least not yet.
    Your FACT does not agree with my facts.

    But I will agree that the economic trajectory has not changed with Trump. But then it did not change with Obama. I think you are looking at the wrong economic measures and over the wrong time frame. But that is common.
    Life is complex.

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    Default Re: With Trump grabbing all the credit his little hands can hold for the economy/job

    Quote Originally Posted by oznabrag View Post
    You can start doing backflips and hand stands, now.
    Well?
    Rattling the teacups.

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    Default Re: With Trump grabbing all the credit his little hands can hold for the economy/job

    This little quote, from the Sage of Omaha's letter to his shareholders written in 2000, appeals to me:


    "The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs.

    "Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.


    "After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.

    "They know that overstaying the festivities - that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future - will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice.

    "But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

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    Default Re: With Trump grabbing all the credit his little hands can hold for the economy/job

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    Your FACT does not agree with my facts.

    But I will agree that the economic trajectory has not changed with Trump. But then it did not change with Obama. I think you are looking at the wrong economic measures and over the wrong time frame. But that is common.
    You can't be serious
    Tom

    "Leave the gun, take the cannolis"

  17. #17
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    Default Re: With Trump grabbing all the credit his little hands can hold for the economy/job

    Quote Originally Posted by ccmanuals View Post
    You can't be serious
    I appear to be in the minority of people who look at big data for answering economic questions. I am comfortable looking back as far as 1973 or 1930 as researchers put data into useable forms.

    I see the growing importance of a college education and of parents who saved. I see the economic disparity between white, black, and hispanic families. And I see a trend with many college educated white families (the privileged ones) claiming massive economic problems - despite the fact that the majority of people would trade places with them if given the chance. None of that is new to Trump or even Obama.

    I am sure you see the economic situation differently. As most others here claim to.

    I tend to think along these lines:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/14/o...gtype=Homepage
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/14/b...Business%20Day
    Life is complex.

  18. #18
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    Default Re: With Trump grabbing all the credit his little hands can hold for the economy/job

    Quote Originally Posted by ccmanuals View Post
    You can't be serious
    Yes. He appears to be earnestly serious.

    And... that seems to be about as good as it gets.
    David G
    Harbor Woodworks
    http://www.harborwoodworking.com/boat.html

    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

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    Default Re: With Trump grabbing all the credit his little hands can hold for the economy/job

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    Yes. He appears to be earnestly serious.

    And... that seems to be about as good as it gets.
    You seem to be less serious about economics than some. But more set in your opinions.
    Life is complex.

  20. #20
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    Default Re: With Trump grabbing all the credit his little hands can hold for the economy/job

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    Cris - true enough... as far as it goes. There is wisdom in, and too little understanding of, the truism that presidents tend to get too much blame and too much credit for conditions and outcomes that are actually driven by the business cycle, etc.

    But it's also true that - within that larger tidal reality - a president can enact policies that precipitate changes. Or fail to enact policies that would have averted a bad outcome. I offer you Herbert Hoover, Ronald Raygun, BushII, Obama, and the efforts from Trump that already have the likelihood of perverse effects locked in - while he 'efforts' more.

    Trumps naked wealth transfer, that he calls 'tax reform', is one example. It did provide a bit of a bump to the economy. Based mostly on 'animal spirits' factors rather than anything fundamental. A short-term benefit. Adding to a an already high and politically polarizing level of income/wealth inequality. Increasing the difficulty of a 'soft landing' when the downturn does come. The Fed has little maneuvering room presently - though they are taking steps to rectify that. And adding to the deficit. Bigly. All in aid of making the economy look good for the midterms (and - they hope - for the 2020 presidential election). There's that 'too little understanding' thing again. People tend to vote for incumbents when the economy is doing well or looking up.
    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/s...192951074.html
    David G
    Harbor Woodworks
    http://www.harborwoodworking.com/boat.html

    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

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