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Thread: Florence is a Hurricane

  1. #36
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Updated storm surge map. Some places in North Carolina that are more than 9-feet above sea level are projected to be inundated. Storm surge effects expected to be felt from South Carolina to the northern Chesapeake Bay.

    Screen Shot 2018-09-11 at 11.53.27 AM.jpg

    The actual interactive map is here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/152311.shtml?inundation#contents

    Kevin
    Last edited by Breakaway; 09-11-2018 at 11:02 AM.
    There are two kinds of boaters: those who have run aground, and those who lie about it.

  2. #37
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Quote Originally Posted by Breakaway View Post
    Somewhat encouraging is that the storm has weakened slightly overnight. Sustained winds are now at 130-mph.Kevin
    it still has to cross the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, though.

  3. #38
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Quote Originally Posted by Breakaway View Post
    Updated storm surge map. Some places in North Carolina that are more than 9-feet above sea level are projected to be inundated. Storm surge effects expected to be felt from South Carolina to the northern Chesapeake Bay.

    Screen Shot 2018-09-11 at 11.53.27 AM.jpg

    The actual interactive map is here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/152311.shtml?inundation#contents

    Kevin
    So Washington could go under.

  4. #39
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    So Washington could go under.
    Washington, NC? Yes.

    Washington, DC? The forecast does not indicate that at this time.

    Screen Shot 2018-09-11 at 2.01.58 PM.jpg

    Kevin
    There are two kinds of boaters: those who have run aground, and those who lie about it.

  5. #40
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    So Washington could go under.
    Washington, NC? Yes.

    Wahsington, DC? The forecast does not indicate that at this time.

    Screen Shot 2018-09-11 at 2.01.58 PM.jpg

    Screen Shot 2018-09-11 at 2.05.53 PM.jpg

    Kevin
    There are two kinds of boaters: those who have run aground, and those who lie about it.

  6. #41
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    '' You ain't gonna learn what you don't want to know. ''
    Grateful Dead

  7. #42
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    It looks like the path just took a turn to the south. That’s not good for my friends in Wilmington. Get out now if you are near the coast!

  8. #43
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Crossing everything here for all the people.

    Take care.

  9. #44
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Good Luck to everyone down there !
    '' You ain't gonna learn what you don't want to know. ''
    Grateful Dead

  10. #45
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    It looks like the path just took a turn to the south. That’s not good for my friends in Wilmington. Get out now if you are near the coast!
    Yes, the updated track reflects that, Steven. Hope your friends ( and everyone) stay safe.

    Screen Shot 2018-09-12 at 8.00.14 AM.jpg

    Kevin


    EDIT: The est time of landfall above coincides with estimated time of high tide in the NC/ SC border area. That will only exacerbate the projected 6-13 feet of storm surge.

    K
    Last edited by Breakaway; 09-12-2018 at 07:11 AM.
    There are two kinds of boaters: those who have run aground, and those who lie about it.

  11. #46
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    I just saw one of the models has it sitting right off the coast of NC for a couple of days. That would be really bad.

  12. #47
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Forumite George Ray is in Southport. He’s 15 feet above mhw.

  13. #48
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Forum member ChuckT's Concordia yawl is in a boatyard in Charleston, SC for minor repairs. Hope the storm surge doesn't work it's way down there.
    I was born on a wooden boat that I built myself.

  14. #49
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Apparently it is forecast to drop dramatically to a tropical storm strength as it hits land.

    https://www.wunderground.com/hurrica...ecast&MR=1
    Enjoy a good rum on the rocks at sunset.

  15. #50
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Right now, Rich, they are showing Charleston as being on the border between the storm surge, "watch"(lavender), and, " warning"(red), areas.

    Screen Shot 2018-09-12 at 10.28.35 AM.jpg

    Kevin
    There are two kinds of boaters: those who have run aground, and those who lie about it.

  16. #51
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane



    Looks bad, for sure.

  17. #52
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Ummmm……….

  18. #53
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Quote Originally Posted by skuthorp View Post
    Ummmm……….
    I'm glad you said so!

    Rattling the teacups.

  19. #54
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    What about Doug, [ Boteman] doesn't he live in one of the Carolina's? Hope I've got his name right.
    basil

  20. #55
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Quote Originally Posted by goodbasil View Post
    What about Doug, [ Boteman] doesn't he live in one of the Carolina's? Hope I've got his name right.
    Botebum (Doug G) is in the crosshairs, but at 52'. He said he would make the decision whether to bug out to Florida today, not because he expects water trouble but because everything will be shut down.

    What are you doing about it?




  21. #56
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    An update: Storm has weakened slightly. Max winds now at 115 mph. Expected to strengthen, though, before landfall.

    Screen Shot 2018-09-12 at 10.28.41 PM.jpg

    Rainfall potential:

    Screen Shot 2018-09-12 at 10.32.41 PM.jpg

    Satellite view of Florence. It is =/- 500 nm across.

    Screen Shot 2018-09-12 at 10.36.18 PM.jpg



    Storm Surge Projection:

    STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
    tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
    rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
    potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
    occurs at the time of high tide...

    Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
    Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
    North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft
    Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
    South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft
    Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
    Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
    Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft




    Atlantic Basin Overview:


    Screen Shot 2018-09-12 at 10.31.16 PM.jpg

    Kevin
    There are two kinds of boaters: those who have run aground, and those who lie about it.

  22. #57
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Good luck guys and girls......keep safe.
    I once thought I was wrong, but I was wrong, I wasn't wrong.

  23. #58
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    '' You ain't gonna learn what you don't want to know. ''
    Grateful Dead

  24. #59
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Then there's super Typhoon Mangkhut, the Philipines and then China.

    "Millions of people are at risk from a strong typhoon set to smash into the northern Philippines this weekend - and potentially the southeast coast of China - which could bring floods, landslides and huge waves to the disaster-prone nation, rescue workers said Wednesday.Emergency workers have been deployed in the northern tip of the main Philippine island of Luzon, where Typhoon Mangkhut is expected to make landfall on Saturday.
    The Hong Kong Observatory forecast the category 5 typhoon could threaten China's southeast coast after passing through the Philippines and entering the South China Sea this Saturday."

    Last edited by skuthorp; 09-13-2018 at 03:59 PM.

  25. #60
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Looks like Florence is fizzling somewhat. The eye is no longer defined from the sat. photo I just saw. Down to a weak Cat 2. Still a dangerous storm and it'll make a giant mess, but perhaps not as life-threatening as it was earlier in the week. The rain inland will be the bigger factor now.
    Having been through a major flood here during Irene, I've seen first hand what fast moving water does.
    I was born on a wooden boat that I built myself.

  26. #61
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Jones View Post
    Looks like Florence is fizzling somewhat. The eye is no longer defined from the sat. photo I just saw. Down to a weak Cat 2. Still a dangerous storm and it'll make a giant mess, but perhaps not as life-threatening as it was earlier in the week. The rain inland will be the bigger factor now.
    Having been through a major flood here during Irene, I've seen first hand what fast moving water does.
    Isn't it just too flat down there for the water to move fast?

  27. #62
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Right now there are GOP politicians who still waffle around the consequences of global warming and sea rise. The degree to which denial has been elevated to straight out gas lighting is astounding.


    from yr article:

    And how have we reacted? Rather than adapt to rising waters, or move aggressively to cut carbon pollution, in 2012 the North Carolina legislature outlawed taking sea-level rise into account in their coastal management strategy.


    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-2WYvH_VcaI

    this video is from 2014 discussing that 2012 legislation to deny science.

  28. #63
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Quote Originally Posted by StevenBauer View Post
    Isn't it just too flat down there for the water to move fast?
    Up here in the mountains of Vermont, the fast moving water really ripped during Irene. But, there were also areas that were relatively flat, but when the rivers overflowed. the water was moving at a good clip. Even slow moving water, and lots of it, will cause a hell of a lot of damage.
    I was born on a wooden boat that I built myself.

  29. #64
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    speaking of gaslighting

    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    3000 people did not die in the two hurricanes that hit Puerto Rico. When I left the Island, AFTER the storm had hit, they had anywhere from 6 to 18 deaths. As time went by it did not go up by much. Then, a long time later, they started to report really large numbers, like 3000...
    8:37 AM Sep 13, 2018

    ald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump

    1h
    .....This was done by the Democrats in order to make me look as bad as possible when I was successfully raising Billions of Dollars to help rebuild Puerto Rico. If a person died for any reason, like old age, just add them onto the list. Bad politics. I love Puerto Rico!

  30. #65
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Originally Posted by Rich Jones
    Looks like Florence is fizzling somewhat. The eye is no longer defined from the sat. photo I just saw. Down to a weak Cat 2. Still a dangerous storm and it'll make a giant mess, but perhaps not as life-threatening as it was earlier in the week. The rain inland will be the bigger factor now.
    Having been through a major flood here during Irene, I've seen first hand what fast moving water doe
    At 110 mph its a cat 2. The definition of a Cat 3 is 111-mph. And regardless, that doesn't affect the storm surge or rainfall amounts much, according to the meteorologists. It is storm surge and flooding that does the most damage in a hurricane, not the wind.

    Isn't it just too flat down there for the water to move fast?
    Storm surge doesn't come in like the tide. It comes in almost all at once. During Irene, Sandy and other storms, it rolled past my mailbox post like current rolling past the dock pilings. The street went from no water to covered by 2 feet in about 20 minutes. And, of course, the wind is blowing 70 or 80 and so there are waves and chop on your front lawn, not just calm water.

    Floodwaters from rain wont be moving fast as in whitewater river fast, but will be moving. Just look at all the rivers on that coast. They are flowing, not being pushed. Its flatter than Maine, for example, but hillier than coastal Texas. Remember the devasting flooding from Hurricane Harvey in Texas last year?

    Kevin
    There are two kinds of boaters: those who have run aground, and those who lie about it.

  31. #66
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane



    New Bern, NC
    Skip

    ---This post is delivered with righteous passion and with a solemn southern directness --
    ...........fighting against the deliberate polarization of politics...

  32. #67
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Tom Lathrop ( Oriental, NC) last heard from here almost 4 days ago!!


  33. #68
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Topsail Beach, NC late this afternoon. The storm is still 50 miles offshore.


    https://weather.com/storms/hurricane...north-carolina





    Storm surge currently at 6 feet in some areas: https://weather.com/safety/hurricane...heast-landfall

    Kevin
    Last edited by Breakaway; 09-13-2018 at 08:24 PM.
    There are two kinds of boaters: those who have run aground, and those who lie about it.

  34. #69
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
    1000 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

    ...1000 PM POSITION UPDATE...
    ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CAPE LOOKOUT
    NORTH CAROLINA AREA...

    A NOAA observing site at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently
    reported a sustained wind of 83 mph (133 km/h) and a gust to
    101 mph (163 km/h). A private weather station in Davis, North
    Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 79 mph (127 km/h)
    and a wind gust of 98 mph (158 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Fort
    Macon, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 71 mph
    (114 km/h) and a wind gust of 100 mph (160 km/h).

    Water levels continue to rise quickly on the western side of
    Pamlico Sound. A gauge at Oriental, North Carolina, on the Neuse
    River is recording a water height of about 6.0 feet above normal
    levels.


    SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...34.0N 76.7W
    ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
    ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
    Ratus ratus bilgeous snipeous!

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  35. #70
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    There are two kinds of boaters: those who have run aground, and those who lie about it.

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