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Thread: Florence is a Hurricane

  1. #1
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    Default Florence is a Hurricane

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 23
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
    1100 PM AST Tue Sep 04 2018

    ...FLORENCE NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...20.7N 43.9W
    ABOUT 1260 MI...2030 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
    ABOUT 1515 MI...2440 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
    located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 43.9 West. Florence is
    moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
    general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday night. A
    northwestward motion is expected to begin by Thursday with
    Florence's forward speed decreasing by the weekend.

    Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
    with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening could occur
    overnight, but a slow weakening trend is forecast to begin on
    Wednesday and continue through Friday.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
    center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
    (165 km).

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).

    Screen Shot 2018-09-05 at 2.37.06 AM.jpg

    Kevin
    There are two kinds of boaters: those who have run aground, and those who lie about it.

  2. #2
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Gordon is likely to dump a lot of rain on me.

  3. #3
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Hope you fare well, Jimmy.

    Kevin
    There are two kinds of boaters: those who have run aground, and those who lie about it.

  4. #4
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    She's a Cat 2 storm now.

    115
    WTNT61 KNHC 051233
    TCUAT1

    Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
    835 AM AST Wed Sep 05 2018

    ...FLORENCE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...
    ...FIRST OF THE 2018 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...

    Recent satellite imagery indicates that Florence is still
    strengthening and is now a major hurricane. Maximum sustained
    winds are estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h). This increase in
    intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued with the 1100 AM
    AST (1500 UTC) advisory package.


    SUMMARY OF 835 AM AST...1235 UTC...INFORMATION
    ---------------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...21.7N 45.2W
    ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
    ABOUT 1405 MI...2265 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

    $$
    Forecaster Berg/Rhome


    Screen Shot 2018-09-05 at 10.11.07 AM.jpg
    There are two kinds of boaters: those who have run aground, and those who lie about it.

  5. #5
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    May they ALL stay in the mid Atlantic.
    Enjoy a good rum on the rocks at sunset.

  6. #6
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    There is that guy rowing a modified St Ayles skiff across the Atlantic. He's not in a great position.

    Edit: Passage weather has Florence stalling close to Bermuda, so Duncan should only see swells. There are two TS on the heels of Florence.



    https://www.facebook.com/duncanadrift/?fb_dtsg_ag=Ady0T8yXnJKthHvG5GhXFoUQ8ca4pAOraTElL-IQGRSNDQ%3AAdxyzyXnPCwzwyj835F98VliOEW9eu-97Q5zd4ZVbmG5x
    Last edited by Hwyl; 09-05-2018 at 11:42 AM.

  7. #7
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Some forcasters see Florence headed towards the UK.
    Batten down.
    IMMIGRANTS BUILT AMERICA - IMMIGRANTS BUILD AMERICA

  8. #8
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    We have a few Hurricanes.

    But more Spitfires.

    Sorry!

    Hope everyone fares better than Japan's hurricane, a day or two back.

  9. #9
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Florence, indeed! Not nursing her power then, is she?

  10. #10
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Man she's is a quick bloomer! Now a CAT 4 storm with max sustained winds of 115 knots. Large, life threatening swells, and the associated rip currents, from the storm anticipated to hit Bermuda on Friday and US East Coast early next week.

    107
    WTNT41 KNHC 052033
    TCDAT1

    Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 26
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
    500 PM AST Wed Sep 05 2018

    Florence has continued to intensify during the day, with colder
    cloud tops completely encircling a clearer eye. Both subjective and
    objective Dvorak estimates have unanimously increased to T6.0/115
    kt, and on this basis, the initial intensity is raised to 115 kt,
    making Florence a category 4 hurricane.

    Florence appears to be right along the southern edge of a zone of
    stronger vertical shear and continues to defy the intensity
    guidance, which has consistently been predicting weakening. That
    said, the last few satellite images indicate that the eye may be
    becoming slightly disrupted by the shear. Since the shear is
    anticipated to increase during the next day or so, gradual weakening
    is shown in the short-term official forecast, which lies along the
    upper end of the guidance through 48 hours. Beyond 48 hours,
    vertical shear is anticipated to weaken, which would allow Florence
    to intensify and potentially regain major hurricane status. However,
    Florence will need to thread the needle between areas of stronger
    shear for this to happen, and there is significant uncertainty in
    the intensity forecast. The new official intensity forecast is
    little changed from before except to adjust upward to account for
    the higher initial intensity.

    The initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 305/11 kt.
    Strong upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen north of
    Florence over the next few days, forcing the hurricane to turn
    toward the west-northwest through about 48 hours. Track guidance is
    good agreement during this period, and the official forecast is
    essentially an update to the previous one. Beyond day 2, a break
    forms in the ridge, which results in a weakening of the steering
    currents, a slowdown in Florence's forward speed, and a turn back
    toward the northwest. The new official forecast is shifted south a
    bit on days 3-5 to account for recent model trends and is closest to
    the TVCN consensus.

    It should be noted that there is considerable model ensemble spread
    and run-to-run variability for Florence's track beyond day 5. Given
    the large uncertainty at these time ranges, it is far too soon to
    speculate what, if any, impacts Florence may have on the U.S. East
    Coast next week. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large
    swells emanating from the hurricane will reach Bermuda beginning on
    Friday, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents on the
    island. Swells from Florence could also reach the U.S. East Coast by
    early next week.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 05/2100Z 22.7N 46.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
    12H 06/0600Z 23.5N 48.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
    24H 06/1800Z 24.5N 49.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
    36H 07/0600Z 25.2N 51.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
    48H 07/1800Z 25.5N 52.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
    72H 08/1800Z 26.0N 55.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
    96H 09/1800Z 27.0N 57.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
    120H 10/1800Z 29.0N 60.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

    $$
    Forecaster Berg/Rhome

    Kevin
    There are two kinds of boaters: those who have run aground, and those who lie about it.

  11. #11
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Florence expected to re-strengthen into a hurricane. Two storms in her wake.

    Screen Shot 2018-09-08 at 11.33.04 PM.jpg

    Kevin
    There are two kinds of boaters: those who have run aground, and those who lie about it.

  12. #12
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    I swear that Mother Nature hates the Small Craft Festival in St. Michaels Md. The weather is always nasty and three years ago it was cancelled due to a hurricane
    "If you think you are too small to make a difference, try sleeping with a mosquito"

    -Dalai Lama

  13. #13
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Florence has been teasing us in coastal NC by dipping back and forth with every forecasting period. Yesterday the computer tracks were focused on middle SC and today they are near Cape Fear, NC. The turn of an approaching hurricane to the north is usually celebrated hereabouts but this time, not so much.

    In my memory, no hurricane has ever come at us from so far away and so high a latitude in the Atlantic. It ain't fittin.

    Its low around here with the average height above sea level about 5 or 6 feet in the county. My shop has flooded 6 times in the last 30 years with over 3' of water in Irene in 2011. Preparation for this level of water is getting more difficult each year as aging does not stop happening while storms are getting worse. Eventually some drastic decisions must be made..
    Tom L

  14. #14
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    My friend has his 75 Trumpy in Beaufort NC. Not looking good for him. They are warming up the plants in Norfolk. That usually doesn't look good for us.
    Ratus ratus bilgeous snipeous!

    You must be the change you wish to see in the world."
    Mahatma Gandhi

  15. #15
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Adams View Post
    My friend has his 75 Trumpy in Beaufort NC. Not looking good for him. They are warming up the plants in Norfolk. That usually doesn't look good for us.
    There are boatyards in the Beaufort area that can handle large boats but scheduling can be a problem. One yard in my area has started charging $150 to $300 to get on the list for possible hauling for a hurricane. That does not include hauling, staging, blocking or any other charges, just gets your boat on the list for a possible haul during one season. Smells real bad to me.
    Tom L

  16. #16
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    The yards may be looking at a time when they are not viable either due to such events, and making hay whilst they can.

  17. #17
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Good Luck to all, wear your crash helmets.
    '' You ain't gonna learn what you don't want to know. ''
    Grateful Dead

  18. #18
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Now a CAT2 storm. The latest track forecast puts a number of forumites in harm's way.

    Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 8.00.57 AM.jpg

    Kevin
    There are two kinds of boaters: those who have run aground, and those who lie about it.

  19. #19
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Do all your prep work - batteries, food, medicines, gasoline (top up the car), water, store important documents,grab bag, and keep safe.
    Enjoy a good rum on the rocks at sunset.

  20. #20
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Lathrop View Post
    Florence has been teasing us in coastal NC by dipping back and forth with every forecasting period. Yesterday the computer tracks were focused on middle SC and today they are near Cape Fear, NC. The turn of an approaching hurricane to the north is usually celebrated hereabouts but this time, not so much.

    In my memory, no hurricane has ever come at us from so far away and so high a latitude in the Atlantic. It ain't fittin.

    Its low around here with the average height above sea level about 5 or 6 feet in the county. My shop has flooded 6 times in the last 30 years with over 3' of water in Irene in 2011. Preparation for this level of water is getting more difficult each year as aging does not stop happening while storms are getting worse. Eventually some drastic decisions must be made..
    Do you duct tape all the external door joints, seal low level external openings.
    Enjoy a good rum on the rocks at sunset.

  21. #21
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    It appears that most forecast tracks have this thing centering on the NC coast, which puts the mouth of the chesapeake in the right front quadrant... That's going to be a whole lot of water with noplace to go, its going to get ugly.
    No adversary is worse than bad advice.

  22. #22
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    My brother-in-law sold his N.C. waterfront home last summer. I'll bet he's glad of that decision today!
    I was born on a wooden boat that I built myself.

  23. #23
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Quote Originally Posted by Figment View Post
    It appears that most forecast tracks have this thing centering on the NC coast, which puts the mouth of the Chesapeake in the right front quadrant... That's going to be a whole lot of water with noplace to go, its going to get ugly.
    If it makes landfall South of Hatteras the Chesapeake shouldn't have too much of a surge. At least that's how it historically has been.
    Last edited by Bob Adams; 09-10-2018 at 12:32 PM.
    Ratus ratus bilgeous snipeous!

    You must be the change you wish to see in the world."
    Mahatma Gandhi

  24. #24
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Florence is now a CAT 4 storm with winds sustained at 130 mph. It continues to strengthen.

    Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 3.16.12 PM.jpg

    Kevin
    There are two kinds of boaters: those who have run aground, and those who lie about it.

  25. #25
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Time for a vacation.
    Life is complex.

  26. #26
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Yup, the Outer Banks are not a place to be.

  27. #27

    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    My weather lady just said expected to be force 5 tomorrow, time to get out.

  28. #28
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Best of luck and the best vibes we can send to our forumites in the way.
    Disbelief in magic can force a poor soul into believing in government and business.
    TOM ROBBINS, Even Cowgirls Get the Blues



  29. #29
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Don't drown, turn around! Don't try to drive through high water, if you can find anyway to avoid it!

    The likely rain totals could be over 20".
    Skip

    ---This post is delivered with righteous passion and with a solemn southern directness --
    ...........fighting against the deliberate polarization of politics...

  30. #30
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    Time for a vacation.

    Be save! I'll be sending my most positive thoughts!
    Skip

    ---This post is delivered with righteous passion and with a solemn southern directness --
    ...........fighting against the deliberate polarization of politics...

  31. #31
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    We are working like mad to secure two Trumpys, break down scaffolding, showing lumber and tools. What a nightmare, the Travelift was running non stop.

  32. #32
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Mandatory evacuations in Va.

    I've been prepping for two days. Two more to go.
    Even a fish wouldn’t get in trouble if it kept it's mouth shut.

  33. #33
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    I've rode out a bunch over the years Gloria, Bob, The October Gale ( aka, "The Perfect Storm"), Irene,....Sandy was the last one.

    I defied a mandatory evac order, because, you know, I need to be there to do something. Let me say that when the bay wants to come into one's house, or the tree drops on ones roof there nothing one can do in the middle of it. I should have left. All I did was risk my life for no possible gain. I will evac next time.

    Whatever you decide, be safe and good luck.

    Kevin
    There are two kinds of boaters: those who have run aground, and those who lie about it.

  34. #34
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    The NHC has now issued a storm surge forecast and warnings for Florence.

    Storm surge is rising water moving inland from the shoreline, pushed onshore by the force of the wind. This storm surge watch/warning graphic identifies locations most at risk for life-threatening inundation

    One can ZOOM IN on this map to really see how far inland storm surge is likely to go: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/092646.shtml?wsurge#contents

    Screen Shot 2018-09-11 at 8.36.35 AM.jpg


    Somewhat encouraging is that the storm has weakened slightly overnight. Sustained winds are now at 130-mph.Kevin
    There are two kinds of boaters: those who have run aground, and those who lie about it.

  35. #35
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    Default Re: Florence is a Hurricane

    Quote Originally Posted by Dannybb55 View Post
    We are working like mad to secure two Trumpys, break down scaffolding, showing lumber and tools. What a nightmare, the Travelift was running non stop.
    Wouldn't happened to have seen where Celebration went did you?
    Ratus ratus bilgeous snipeous!

    You must be the change you wish to see in the world."
    Mahatma Gandhi

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