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Thread: Something to keep you awake

  1. #1
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    Default Something to keep you awake

    Consider that Mr Putin operates according to old-style amoral realpolitik, where nations have no friends, merely interests. If Russia can disrupt and thus weaken a rival, he thinks they gain - and by that kind of calculation, he's right. One of his major goals is to disrupt the western alliance that's held things together in Europe since the end of WWII, restricting Russian influence. And Mr. Trump has certainty been disruptive and incompetent enough to seriously weaken the US's international position.

    So a scenario: Things keep going like they have been. Trump lies and lies and lies and lies and lies and steps in the cowplops weekly. 'The base' loves him, but the counterreaction is stronger. The 2018 Congressional election starts looking more and more like an impending 'blue wave', with a significant chance of Democrats taking both houses of Congress. Mueller's still working, and the scope of the investigation is getting ever wider and closer to Trump. Cohen is cooperating. Manafort may be. There's even a tiny bit of indication that the more moderate Republicans might just abandon Trump, or even turn against him.

    And then the election - and the 'blue wave' happens; it looks like the Democrats will have 52 Senate seats and a majority in the House - or maybe it does. There has been significant hacking of voting machines in Texas, Georgia, Florida, Virginia, Arizona, and several others - all states with electronic voting, but without a clear auditable paper trail. It might be Russians, but it's not immediately obvious. It's hard to tell who it benefited - but the rabid right is completely convinced that it was to benefit Democrats, and that was why they won. I mean, really, if they can believe that James Comey actually messed with the 2016 election in an attempt to elect Hillary Clinton, they can believe anything. Trump gets rabid about how 'we wuz robbed!', and claims that the congressional election results are illegitimate. The message is repeated endlessly in the far-right media; they stole the election.

    Then things could get seriously weird in several ways, none of them very pleasant to contemplate. And Vladimir Putin grins a tight little grin, and occasionally indulges himself in a well-satisfied chuckle, all alone at night.
    Last edited by Keith Wilson; 06-28-2018 at 07:26 AM.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

    Richard Feynman

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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    Jimminy Crickets like I need something else to keep me awake?
    Skip

    ---This post is delivered with righteous passion and with a solemn southern directness --
    ...........fighting against the deliberate polarization of politics...

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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    that makes me want a 14 year old daughter with a bunch of sleazy boys hankering after her, a couple kids in college, a mortgage, 3 vehicles that need expensive repairs, and a layoff looming.

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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    it is a thought I have had before. It is rather unpleasant to consider
    "If you think you are too small to make a difference, try sleeping with a mosquito"

    -Dalai Lama

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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugh Conway View Post
    that makes me want a 14 year old daughter with a bunch of sleazy boys hankering after her, a couple kids in college, a mortgage, 3 vehicles that need expensive repairs, and a layoff looming.
    It does?

  6. #6
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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    Consider that Mr Putin operates according to old-style amoral realpolitik, where nations have no friends, merely interests. If Russia can disrupt and thus weaken a rival, he thinks they gain - and by that kind of calculation, he's right. One of his major goals is to disrupt the western alliance that's held things together in Europe since the end of WWII, seriously restricting Russian power. And Mr. Trump has certainty been disruptive and incompetent enough to seriously weaken the US's international position.

    So a scenario: Things keep going like they have been. Trump lies and lies and lies and lies and lies and steps in the cowplops weekly. 'The base' loves him, but the counterreaction is stronger. The 2018 Congressional election starts looking more and more like an impending 'blue wave', with a significant chance of Democrats taking both houses of Congress. Mueller's still working, and the scope of the investigation is getting ever wider and closer to Trump. Cohen is cooperating. Manafort may be. There's even a tiny bit of indication that the more moderate Republicans might just abandon Trump, or even turn against him.

    And then the election - and the 'blue wave' happens; it looks like the Democrats will have 52 Senate seats and a majority in the House - or maybe it does. There has been significant hacking of voting machines in Texas, Georgia, Florida, Virginia, Arizona, and several others - all states with electronic voting, but without a clear auditable paper trail. It might be Russians, but it's not immediately obvious. It's hard to tell who it benefited - but the rabid right is completely convinced that it was to benefit Democrats, and that was why they won. I mean, really, if they can believe that James Comey actually messed with the 2016 election in an attempt to elect Hillary Clinton, they can believe anything. Trump gets rabid about how 'we wuz robbed!', and claims that the congressional election results are illegitimate. The message is repeated endlessly in the far-right media; they stole the election.

    Then things could get seriously weird in several ways, none of them very pleasant to contemplate. And Vladimir Putin grins a tight little grin, and occasionally indulges himself in a well-satisfied chuckle, all alone at night.
    It’s pretty obvious who was grinning when he wrote this piece.
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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    I don’t worry too much about the weirdness except in a severe recession. Also if a majority of politically active people reset the country rejecting policies of fear, bigotry and authoritarianism the country will be stronger for it.

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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    I must be clairvoyant. Had really difficult time sleeping last night. Apparently preparing myself for Keith's post. Trouble is, every part of it is true and we already knew it. Has Putin already sent his wish list along to the great leader? Worked for Kim.
    Tom L

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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    Quote Originally Posted by mdh View Post
    It’s pretty obvious who was grinning when he wrote this piece.
    Do you honestly think that, if the Dems take the House and Senate, Trump won't be screaming bloody murder that the election was rigged? He based his whole 2016 campaign on the premise that the Dems were rigging the election for Hillary.
    I was born on a wooden boat that I built myself.

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  11. #11
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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    Has Putin already sent his wish list along to the great leader?
    I think his wish list is simpler than that. It's sufficient that the US gets totally messed up, internally divided, flailing around, unable to find its *ss with both hands and a GPS. That's enough weaken us and our alliances, and to prevent us from doing anything to thwart Russian interests. It's an old and mostly erroneous idea of competitive advantage in the modern interconnected world; generally cooperation is far more predictable than zero-sum competition, but neither Putin nor Trump understands that.

    You want a real nightmare scenario? Assume that Congress is closely divided after the 2018 election, maybe with one house majority Democrat, one Republican. Paralysis enuses. Trump's idiotic trade policies crash the economy (It's happened before, see Hawley-Smoot tariff act). We have a serious recession, there's 12% unemployment and rising. We already cut taxes too much, and payments on the debt are starting to bite. Any relief measures are stalled by partisan bickering and Trump's incoherence. in the 2020 election Trump loses very badly and there's a serious blue wave in Congress, much like 1932 - but there's significant hacking of voting machines, probably Russian, but not obviously so. The right, realizing that if the election stands they're completely out of power for the foreseeable future, starts to howl about how the election was stolen. Maybe they could come up with a villian, some left-wing silicon valley billionaire who would have access to the technical skills needed; it would help if the person was female, or gay, or not white. Things could get a lot weirder.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    Consider that Mr Putin operates according to old-style amoral realpolitik, where nations have no friends, merely interests.
    Consider that the president of the United States operates according to old-style amoral realpolitik, where nations have no friends, merely interests.

    Contrast and compare.
    Steve Martinsen

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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    Quote Originally Posted by SMARTINSEN View Post
    Consider that the president of the United States operates according to old-style amoral realpolitik, where nations have no friends, merely interests. Contrast and compare.
    The major difference is that Mr. Putin does it more competently.
    Last edited by Keith Wilson; 06-28-2018 at 09:38 AM.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

    Richard Feynman

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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    The usual diversion, blame it on the Russians. Have they tried to influence our politics, absolutely yes, been doing it for a long time and will continue. Does the US do it, same answer. But when players within our US government use their positions to sway things it might keep you awake.

    The explosive comment came during an exchange of text messages between agent Peter Strzok and his lover, FBI lawyer Lisa Page, in August 2016, IG Michael Horowitz’s report revealed Thursday.
    “[Trump’s] not ever going to become president, right? Right?!” Page texted Strzok.
    “No. No he won’t. We’ll stop it,” Strzok responded.

    Strzok was removed from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s team in August after the inspector general uncovered the text messages, and Page has since left the bureau. Strzok’s comment is reminiscent of his cryptic discussion of implementing an “insurance policy” in the event Trump won the election, which was exposed in a previous batch of text messages uncovered by the IG last year.
    While it remains unclear whether their partisan leanings affected their conduct during their time on Mueller’s team, the Thursday report indicated it had no bearing on their behavior while investigating Clinton’s use of a private email server.
    “We did not find documentary or testimonial evidence that improper considerations, including political bias, directly affected the specific investigative actions we reviewed,” Justice Department inspector general Michael Horowitz wrote in the report. “The conduct by these employees cast a cloud over the entire FBI investigation.”

    https://www.nationalreview.com/news/...ing-president/

  15. #15
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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    Hogwash. FBI agents, like other citizens, have political opinions and talk about them, in circumstances they believe to be private. There is no evidence whatsoever that these folks' political opinions affected their professional work in the slightest. You highlighted the wrong part.

    . . . the Thursday report indicated it had no bearing on their behavior while investigating Clinton’s use of a private email server. “We did not find documentary or testimonial evidence that improper considerations, including political bias, directly affected the specific investigative actions we reviewed,”
    We are seeing right here in woodpile's post a small version of the thing I've talked about in my dark imaginings - the invention of conspiracies by the US left to mess with the election, when the actual attempts came from elsewhere.
    Last edited by Keith Wilson; 06-28-2018 at 10:15 AM.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    Would Trump call upon the Real Patriotic Americans to "Man Up" and come to Washington and straighten thing out? I think he might. What would our military do? Which side are the ranks on?

    It really is a nightmare. How to turn the US into a third world thugacracy.

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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    I think his wish list is simpler than that. It's sufficient that the US gets totally messed up, internally divided, flailing around, unable to find its *ss with both hands and a GPS. That's enough weaken us and our alliances, and to prevent us from doing anything to thwart Russian interests. It's an old and mostly erroneous idea of competitive advantage in the modern interconnected world; generally cooperation is far more predictable than zero-sum competition, but neither Putin nor Trump understands that.

    You want a real nightmare scenario? Assume that Congress is closely divided after the 2018 election, maybe with one house majority Democrat, one Republican. Paralysis enuses. Trump's idiotic trade policies crash the economy (It's happened before, see Hawley-Smoot tariff act). We have a serious recession, there's 12% unemployment and rising. We already cut taxes too much, and payments on the debt are starting to bite. Any relief measures are stalled by partisan bickering and Trump's incoherence. in the 2020 election Trump loses very badly and there's a serious blue wave in Congress, much like 1932 - but there's significant hacking of voting machines, probably Russian, but not obviously so. The right, realizing that if the election stands they're completely out of power for the foreseeable future, starts to howl about how the election was stolen. Maybe they could come up with a villian, some left-wing silicon valley billionaire who would have access to the technical skills needed; it would help if the person was female, or gay, or not white. Things could get a lot weirder.
    There are so many ways this could go. Trump ran on the message that the economy was messed up and it was Obama's fault. Now he has taken full responsibility for how great it is going. In '28, the Nazi party failed miserably by screaming about how bad they were getting screwed financially, even though most Germans were enjoying a real comeback. '29 changed that and Hitler became a prophet and rolled that message into major wins in '30 and their subsequent rise to the top. If the Dems have some success in 2018, and the recession hits well before 2020, the same old message that it's the other guy's fault, could put Trump and Putin back on top.

    Whatever happens, you can bet the Right Wing propaganda is going to be mighty thick in the coming years.

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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    The first organized protest against President Trump was the day after his inauguration, and have repeated frequently since. Now Kieth is worried that sometime in the future, Republicans will begin to act like dimocrats have for the last year and a half.
    #15: The translation is: the IG didn’t find any documents, or hear any testimony, that admitted guilt. But the hearings aren’t over. 400 pages of bias out of a 586 page report, but no documents, or testimony, admitting to it. Critical thinking, my foot.
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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    Quote Originally Posted by woodpile View Post
    The conduct by these employees cast a cloud over the entire FBI investigation.”
    A cloud may be dispelled. This is the point of the IG report and the hearings thereon, right?
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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    Quote Originally Posted by ahp View Post
    Would Trump call upon the Real Patriotic Americans to "Man Up" and come to Washington and straighten thing out? I think he might. What would our military do? Which side are the ranks on?

    It really is a nightmare. How to turn the US into a third world thugacracy.
    Never a democracy yet that didn't commit suicide. -- John Adams

    In our case the republic has to be destroyed first. Trumpers are hard at work on it. The democracy the rabble strives to establish will prove ephemeral.
    He's a Mexican. -- Donald Trump.
    America cannot survive another four years of Barack Obama. -- Governor Chris Christie (R) New Jersey
    It wasn't racism, it was an attack on Christianity. -- Fox News
    Crying white mothers are ratings gold. -- National Rifle Association

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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    Hogwash. FBI agents, like other citizens, have political opinions and talk about them, in circumstances they believe to be private. There is no evidence whatsoever that these folks' political opinions affected their professional work in the slightest. You highlighted the wrong part.

    We are seeing right here in woodpile's post a small version of the thing I've talked about in my dark imaginings - the invention of conspiracies by the US left to mess with the election, when the actual attempts came from elsewhere.
    Then what would you mean if you made these statements? the words are clear. Clinton gets a free pass, Trump gets the heat turned up, BY THE SAME INVESTIGATION TEAM, and you don't think something smells?

    “[Trump’s] not ever going to become president, right? Right?!” Page texted Strzok.
    “No. No he won’t. We’ll stop it,” Strzok responded.

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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    Quote Originally Posted by woodpile View Post
    Then what would you mean if you made these statements? the words are clear. Clinton gets a free pass, Trump gets the heat turned up, BY THE SAME INVESTIGATION TEAM, and you don't think something smells?

    “[Trump’s] not ever going to become president, right? Right?!” Page texted Strzok.
    “No. No he won’t. We’ll stop it,” Strzok responded.
    How many agents were involved in these investigations?

    Jeff C

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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    “No. No he won’t. We’ll stop it,” Strzok responded.
    So what does that mean? Is 'we' the people in the conversation planning some kind of skulduggery, or 'we' the American people going and voting? Beware taking one phrase out of context. If there's no evidence of misconduct by those agents, nothing but one interpretation of small snippets of conversations they thought were private, one should go with the latter. You've amply demonstrated the kind of fact-free paranoia that I was postulating in my two dire scenarios. We wuz robbed! The elections were rigged because we lost! Millions of illegal aliens voted! (Trump really said that last bit of bullsh!t.)

    Thank you, Mr. Woodpile, for providing an example of exactly the sort of thing that could make the unpleasantness I described possible. Unfortunately, now it seems a little less fanciful.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    Sadly, entirely plausible. You left out the millions of undocumented immigrants voting Democratic, BTW. Jus' sayin'.
    Gerard>
    ​Freeland, WA

    Next election, vote against EVERY Republican, for EVERY office, at EVERY level. Be patriotic and stop the madness. Save the country.

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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    So what does that mean? Is 'we' the people in the conversation planning some kind of skulduggery, or 'we' the American people going and voting? Beware taking one phrase out of context. If there's no evidence of misconduct by those agents, nothing but one interpretation of small snippets of conversations they thought were private, one should go with the latter. You've amply demonstrated the kind of fact-free paranoia that I was postulating in my two dire scenarios. We wuz robbed! The elections were rigged because we lost! Millions of illegal aliens voted! (Trump really said that last bit of bullsh!t.)

    Thank you, Mr. Woodpile, for providing an example of exactly the sort of thing that could make the unpleasantness I described possible. Unfortunately, now it seems a little less fanciful.
    I really have a hard time believing you can call it "hogwash" when the credibility of our top people in the enforcement agency and the justice dept's credibility are in question, especially after the screams from the left over collusion we're deafening but over this issue they are silent and if you don't thing things we're rigged, just ask Bernie. And the documented words of Strzok are fact, not paranoia.

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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    . . when the credibility of our top people in the enforcement agency and the justice dept's credibility are in question,
    "In question"? How's that for a weasel word, folks? The age of the earth is 'in question'; just ask Frank! Your sanity is 'in question, because I think you're nucking futs! My sanity is 'in question', because you think the same about me!

    You're giving us a glorious example of exactly the thinking that could create the scenarios I describe.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

    Richard Feynman

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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    "In question"? How's that for a weasel word, folks? The age of the earth is 'in question'; just ask Frank! Your sanity is 'in question, because I think you're nucking futs! My sanity is 'in question', because you think the same about me!

    You're giving us a glorious example of exactly the thinking that could create the scenarios I describe.
    Yeah, I understand, their only words that apply to the right, you're reaching.

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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Jones View Post
    Do you honestly think that, if the Dems take the House and Senate, Trump won't be screaming bloody murder that the election was rigged? He based his whole 2016 campaign on the premise that the Dems were rigging the election for Hillary.
    He was a real estate developer in NY, he’ll just switch over and start dealing with whoever is in power.
    Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country. John Fn Kennedy. (D)

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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    Quote Originally Posted by mdh View Post
    He was a real estate developer in NY, he’ll just switch over and start dealing with whoever is in power.
    That only works for Trump if those in power are amoral thugs out to destroy your duly-constituted government.

    Like the 'Republican' Party is.

    Like he is.
    Rattling the teacups.

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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    Quote Originally Posted by oznabrag View Post
    That only works for Trump if those in power are amoral thugs out to destroy your duly-constituted government.
    Then he should be able to work with dimocrats.
    Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country. John Fn Kennedy. (D)

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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    The major difference is that Mr. Putin does it more competently.
    And Putin isn’t trying to degrade and debase is country.

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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    Quote Originally Posted by mdh View Post
    He was a real estate developer in NY, he’ll just switch over and start dealing with whoever is in power.
    you mean the people who got him out of bankruptcy?

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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    A few years back the Reds were parroting US triumphalism over Russia as a failed state and unworthy of consideration as a world player. How things change!

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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    Quote Originally Posted by mdh View Post
    Then he should be able to work with dimocrats.
    It is clear that you support Trump because you think he is a better man than you.

    You may be right.
    Rattling the teacups.

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    Default Re: Something to keep you awake

    Is 'we' the people in the conversation planning some kind of skulduggery, or 'we' the American people going and voting?
    Do you really imagine that with the arrogance of an LE - FBI, even - manipulating public figures he was referring to 'we, the people'? This, is why we "can't have nice things". I do agree, tho, that Comey's actions were designed to sabotage Hillary's chances. That was obvious.. and I still marvel at those who won't see it.

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